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News outlet uses loaded poll questions to make broad policy assumptions

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* Capitol News Illinois…

A new survey released this week suggests Illinoisans are more moderate on the issue of abortion than the current Democratic-controlled General Assembly, but it is unclear whether that will cost Democrats votes in November.

The poll by the Chicago-based firm Ogden & Fry – which is owned by a Republican candidate for Cook County Board – found that 40 percent of those responding describe themselves as “pro-choice with some restrictions,” including limits on late-term abortions, while nearly 25 percent describe themselves as “pro-life with exceptions” for things like rape, incest and protecting the life of the mother.

That puts nearly two-thirds of those surveyed somewhere in the middle of the spectrum, with only 21.5 percent describing themselves as 100-percent “pro-choice” and 14 percent identifying as 100-percent “pro-life.”

First, there is a world of difference between being pro-choice with some exceptions and pro-life with a few limited exceptions.

* I passed on that poll result because of the wording…

Abortion is one of the most divisive topics of the day. How do you consider yourself?

100% Pro-Life
Pro Life with exceptions (rape, incest, life of mother, etc.)
Pro Choice with some restrictions e.g. partial-birth abortions, late term abortions, etc.
100% Pro Choice (legal until the moment of birth including partial-birth abortions)

“100% Pro-Life” is not defined, but all other stances are. Also, using “etc.” in a poll question is a bit odd. And, “until the moment of birth”? Yeah, not loaded at all. There was also this question…

Are you more or less likely to support a candidate who believes an elective abortion should be legal until the moment of birth?

I’m not sure what that actually means, but 51.9 percent said they’d be less likely. That’s usually not enough to move actual numbers in campaigns, however. You normally need a much higher result than that to see an impact on real life votes.

* There are some other significant poll results, though. Back to the article…

Perhaps more importantly, 78 percent of those surveyed said they believe parents should be notified before their minor child receives an abortion, including 35 percent who supported a judicial bypass in situations where parental notification is not possible or not in the child’s best interest.

Even among self-identified Democrats, 61.6 percent said they support some level of parental notification requirement.

Repealing PNA has never polled well, but there might be a political way to manage it. For example, I told subscribers recently about a mailer attacking Rep. Mike Zalewski (D-Riverside) for voting against repealing PNA…

When the Illinois legislature took steps to protect access to abortion care for all people in Illinois, Mike Zalewski voted with every Republican in Springfield to block younger women from freely accessing reproductive care. His vote protected outdated parental notification requirements – even when a person is raped or the victim of incest – putting the health and safety of young women at great risk.

* Anyway, more results…

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Biden is doing as President?

Approve 50%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure or never heard of him 2%

Do you approve or disapprove of the job JB Prtizker is doing as Governor?

Approve 51%
Disapprove 46%
Unsure or never heard of him 3%

The article had numbers on both of those people which didn’t match up with my math. You can do the math yourself if you’d like.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:19 am

Comments

I want to meet those 3% who never heard of the governor and 2% who never heard of the president. Oy vey.

As to this poll, what a joke. Glad you passed on it Rich. Too bad our friends at CNI were not as discerning. These are almost meaningless categories. And btw, nobody carries a child to term and then terminates it for convenience. That’s just not how this works so the “until the moment of birth” nonsense is just that. Complete nonsense.

Comment by New Day Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:27 am
It’s an odd poll to look at on its own merits, given too the likelihood of the politics of abortion will clearly be, as indicated by Personal PAC, something to the effect of “‘X’ is dangerous to women’s health… ‘X’ wants to take away a woman’s choice and control of her own body”

If SCOTUS goes as far all but overturning Roe, Republicans especially will wish the abortion numbers were soft to their own pro-life stances.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:28 am
We like to think of ourselves as “pro life & believing people and their doctors get to make all health care decisions”

Comment by Annonin' Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:30 am
Among other things, the tell that this poll is bogus is the use of the term “partial-birth abortion,” which is a term made up by anti-abortion advocates but not actually used by reputable medical organizations. Also, abortions don’t happen “right up to the moment of birth.”

Comment by Quibbler Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:42 am
I always have trouble answering the Biden approval question. Do I approve compared to his immediate predecessor? Absolutely. Compared to every other preceding president? Not so much.

Comment by Original Rambler Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:50 am
If you want to conclude how many are “in the middle of the spectrum” then why not put a middle response?

Comment by Lurker Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 11:56 am
I have questions on this poll, especially considering it has Biden’s approval at 50%. Doesn’t pass the smell test.

Comment by Matthew Dean Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:01 pm
===it has Biden’s approval at 50%===

This ain’t “Texas”

There’s also 48% that disapprove, Biden won by 15+ points, now “only up 2”?

If it had Biden “up 10”…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:05 pm
Bad polls are usually done to con somebody out of something: news organizations for earned coverage, fence-sitters for volunteers, donors for cash. What’s the angle on this one?

Comment by Socially DIstant Watcher Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:08 pm
Polls with less than 1000 responses are useless. Sample sizes need to be over 5000 to be representative. Hilary had 92% chance of being elected according to “polls”. Always be mindful of the sample size.

Comment by Matthew Dean Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:12 pm
===Hilary had===

(Sigh)

Hilary won the popular vote. You are confusing popular with electoral votes.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:17 pm
== Polls with less than 1000 responses are useless. Sample sizes need to be over 5000 to be representative. ==

Tell me you know nothing about polling without telling me you know nothing about polling

Comment by fs Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:36 pm
Some will call it a “push poll” but that is incorrect, it’s actually a message testing poll.

And a very bad one. Written by Republicans for Republicans.

The central question is whether you think the decision to have an abortion or have a child should be made by a woman in consultation with her doctor, or whether that decision should be made by politicians in Springfield or Washington.

You get a very different answer if you ask folks whether they would choose to have an abortion even if complications put their health or life at risk, versus asking whether every woman should be able to decide for themselves whether or not to have an abortion in those circumstances.

Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 12:38 pm
“Retiring state Rep. Mark Batinick, R-Plainfield, who is supporting Podgorski’s campaign, said in a phone interview that he suggested doing the poll”

Might as well throw out some more nonsense on his way out the door.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 1:06 pm
I mentioned this in a CapFax comment previously but I took this poll.

They reached out via text and it sent you to a survey monkey link. Not sure how scientific that is or whether some people who got it could have shared the link to spam it.

I did my best to give honest answers (thinking it was a Dem pollster reaching out) but many of the questions did not give options that adequately lined up with nuanced aspects of my views.

Comment by hisgirlfriday Wednesday, Jun 8, 22 @ 3:26 pm