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End of an era?

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

The Illinois Republican Party has successfully avoided being dragged into the hard-right camp at the state level for decades. Those days may be over.

With relatively liberal Republicans Jim Thompson, Jim Edgar and then George Ryan as governor, the state never embraced the sweeping policy changes that emerged from the “Reagan Revolution” and defined the national party for decades.

The Illinois AFL-CIO endorsed Thompson’s last re-election bid. The National Abortion Rights Action League endorsed Edgar’s first gubernatorial run. Ryan campaigned to the left of his 1998 Democratic opponent on guns, abortion and gay rights. They were all from the “governing wing” of the party, eschewing the rabble on the far right and occasionally batting them off like flies.

While Bruce Rauner defined himself by his rabidly anti-union stance, he was pro-choice enough to sign a bill that provided Medicaid funding for abortions. He never supported Donald Trump, even though the two shared several personality traits.

That distance from the far right helped statewide Republicans win general elections in moderate-to-liberal Illinois, particularly after the state leaned harder Democratic when Bill Clinton was elected president in 1992.

But if a recent Chicago Sun-Times/WBEZ poll is even close to accurate, those days may finally be behind the party. And, consequently, their statewide fate will likely be sealed without a sea change in Illinois political behavior and demographics.

The new poll has Sen. Darren Bailey trouncing the establishment’s choice, Richard Irvin, by 15 points, 32-17. Bailey not only leads among Downstate Republicans by 24 points, he’s also ahead in the suburbs. Another 27% were undecided, with Jesse Sullivan the only other candidate polling in the double digits (11%).

This is the second poll in a row showing a Bailey lead. Hard-right activist and radio host Dan Proft released a poll at the beginning of last week showing Bailey with a seven-point margin.

What has happened to Irvin and his $53 million war chest, most of it supplied by the state’s wealthiest resident Ken Griffin?

One huge factor is Gov. J.B. Pritzker, the Democratic Governors Association and Bailey along with his big-money backer Dick Uihlein, have so far managed to turn this race into the same sort of “traditional” GOP primary that other, more conservative states have seen for years and years, but that Illinois has generally avoided. They have reshaped the playing field, and it has become untenable for the more moderate Irvin.

After months of Irvin pounding Bailey for being some sort of closet Democrat, the Democrats, Bailey and Proft spent millions to prove without a shadow of a doubt that Bailey was a solid Trumpster.

And by deriding Bailey for being “too conservative” for Illinois, the Democrats have also apparently managed to so far convince many rank-and-file Republicans they aren’t actually trying to advance Bailey’s candidacy (even though the Democrats are clearly doing that very thing).

The Irvin campaign claims the Democrats are on pace to spend $32 million against their guy, although their numbers show the Dems have “only” spent $15+ million so far. Uihlein has contributed $17 million to Bailey and Proft’s “People Who Play by the Rules PAC,” more than he’s ever done here. Uihlein’s big spending and the willingness of the Democrats to literally spend whatever it took seems to have caught Irvin’s team by surprise.

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Another factor could be that voters finally caught on to a big Irvin lie. Bailey is one of the most far-right legislators in the state. Once voters saw through Irvin’s game, everything else he said could be disregarded. And Pritzker has come on strong in recent days with two very hard-hitting ads trumpeting some opposition research on Irvin that clearly left deep marks.

Irvin spent $3.6 million on advertising during the last week of May. By the first week of June, that spending had dropped to less than $800,000. The Irvin campaign allowed all of its Downstate broadcast TV ads to expire last week. They’re now focusing solely on the Chicago media market.

The story from inside is that “regular” Downstate Republicans are already with Irvin, so they want to focus on city, suburban and exurban Republicans with more Illinois-style Republican messaging. But the party has clearly changed. They have only one narrow path out, and it’s pretty rocky and steep.

Irvin has taken to repeating a mantra that Pritzker is backing Bailey because he knows Bailey can’t win. But by doing so he’s essentially making the Democrats’ own case that Bailey is “too conservative” for Illinois. And that risks firing up the hardcore base even more.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:17 am

Comments

Great column. This is very, very factual on a lot of things. I completely forgot that the AFL-CIO endorsed Jim Thompson : which explains why the Illinois GOP is well… different than many other states. Illinois isn’t a swing state.

Comment by Steve Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:26 am
And here I thought Grif was a market maker.

Comment by PublicServant Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:28 am
== …even though the two shared several personality traits. ==

Great Line

My laff for the day.

Comment by sal-says Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:35 am
No doubt about it.

Ives coming as close as she did in the primary with Rauner was probably the tipping point for the republican party.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:56 am
The Irvin crew learning that the party has shifted in 2022 is pretty funny. Where they just not paying attention to the past 6 years?

Comment by Left of what Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 9:56 am
I suppose you could see the warning signs. Rauner nearly losing to Ives in the 2018 primary, unpopular as he was, certainly showed a GOP electorate that was unhappy.

I wonder if another factor is Madigan, unironically enough. He’s fading as boogeyman. A few years ago Irvin repeating insistently he’s Madigan’s ‘worst nightmare’ probably gains traction. Now? Republican voters want other things.

Comment by Nick Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:03 am
Griffin money can’t buy a primary that Illinois GOP voters don’t want. There’s the law of diminishing returns in campaign funding.

Comment by Steve Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:14 am
For an attack to work, it must be credible. Calling Bailey a “closet Democrat” was just ridiculous. Even primary voters that dont pay much attention could see that. Being caught in that nonsense, anything Irvin said after that could be discounted as you said Rich.

If it turns out the way the polls are saying, this will go down as one of the biggest failures of a well funded primary candidate.

Comment by low level Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:17 am
Maybe Grif thinks he’s trying to save the actually conservative Republican Party from extremists.

I sure hope both parties in Illinois can continue to resist the drift to ends of the spectrum. It’s one of the things most admirable about Illinois.

Comment by walker Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:29 am
-Maybe Grif thinks he’s trying to save the actually conservative Republican Party from extremists.-

Will in the near future we hear about Grif getting a Florida driver’s license? That’s the real question.

Comment by Steve Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 10:42 am
Several months ago before Irvin announced his run and we were just hearing rumors, I remarked that I couldn’t imagine Irvin becoming governor because he couldn’t beat Pritzker in a Democratic primary, and would be far too centrist for a Republican primary.

Looks like that prediction is coming true. I just never understood how someone running as a centrist could hope to win a statewide Republican primary these days. Irvin has tried coming off as right wing and not just centrist, but his record gives lie to that image.

Comment by Techie Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 11:42 am
Thanks to the Times for covering a complicated issue in a straightforward way in this Sunday morning column.
Seems Republicans have a choice between wasting a primary vote on Bailey, (who may not be able to beat Pritzker) or Irvin (who may not be able to beat Bailey).
In terms of Mayor Irvin and Ken Griffin, Team Irvin’s campaign tactics did a lot to ruin their plans. Sending out postcards with pictures of opponents dressed in Rabbit Costumes and making statements that were clearly not true was perhaps the best example of a campaign staff with too much money and no common sense in decades.

Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 12:00 pm
Few observations…. The Z Rauner Team could set the record for the most (3) campaigns lost in a single primary election. This was accomplished with the support of $50+ million. This will be on the books for a long time. Rich, your article is spot on. Whoever the insider is that told you ‘Regular’ downstate republicans are with Irvin is living in a world outside of my understanding. I happen to be a Regular republican and do not support Irvin. He is a corrupt democrat that shouldn’t be in our primary. Chatter, although not scientific, is almost completely negative towards Irvin. The Z Rauner Team can’t see this because it involves knowing what is going on at the local level which means hard work.

Comment by Primate Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:09 pm
=== Whoever the insider is that told you ‘Regular’ downstate republicans are with Irvin is living in a world outside of my understanding. I happen to be a Regular republican and do not support Irvin.===

Since you brought it up, who are you supporting.

Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:12 pm
Undecided. Leaning Bailey to end their reign and start the rebuild.

Comment by Primate Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:19 pm
==to end their reign and start the rebuild==

Who’s reign and what are you rebuilding?

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:26 pm
===Who’s reign and what are you rebuilding?===

Yeah, it confused me too, lol

What exactly is all that?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:27 pm
Team Irvin started with ” I called out the guard ” ramped it up with ” not pardoning madigan ” closeting out with “baileys a democrat “

Comment by Rabid Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:41 pm
Candidate vetting is critical. I acknowledge Irvin has many characteristics pointing to his potential capability to be a good candidate as well as a good governor.

However, people who are professionals–and, in particular, extremely well paid professionals–should have a pretty good idea of what their relevant electorates look like. Electability–or at least ability to garner enough votes to avoid wiping out the rest of the ticket–is a good thing. But, believe it or not, getting to the general election requires winning the primary.

On that score, Irvin conceptually should have had a genuine shot at winning the GOP primary. But, it is more than worthwhile to undertake a vetting so that the vulnerabilities can be identified.Then these need to be evaluated to determine the extent of the potential damage and whether a candidate/campaign can or cannot successfully address them.

While some will say the GOP primary electorate will not vote for a Black candidate, this is simply untrue. In 2018, Erika Harold, a Black woman, won the Republican nomination for Attorney General with nearly 60% of the primary vote.

Getting back to the present–Is it unreasonable to believe that a multi-term mayor is going to have stuff. Oh, I don’t know, say there are rich contracts that might have gone to supporters and contributors or even to a company in which the Mayor is a part-owner? Or, that the same Mayor has a girlfriend who likes to frequent the cannabis store and drop his name at every opportunity?
My guess is Yes.

When the candidate had been a member of the other party until “last week,” would it be good to know his favorable statements about his old party, his pictures with & praise for his opponent, his negative comments about his new party’s most recent president and the like? My guess is Yes.

Comment by Midwesterner Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 1:43 pm
Irwin appears to be poised to “snatch defeat from the jaws of victory”. It’s like neither he nor his staff were thinking how to sew up the primary, and now Bailey has at least a half-chance to win it.

Comment by thisjustinagain Monday, Jun 13, 22 @ 5:52 pm