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Rate the ad, rate the strategy and talk about turnout

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Illinois

* First, take a look at this ad for judicial candidates Howard Brookins and Tom Nowinski…

Not bad.
* Now, I don’t usually post low-level circuit court ads, but the pitch was interesting. As you probably know, early voting turnout, in Cook County at least, is in the absolute tank right now. This person’s pitch was that the voting population will be heavily skewed to older Democrats, who tend to vote no matter wha, and that’s who they’re targeting here with their broadcast buy. And, because the primary is so late, TV ad rates have dropped for the summer. Here’s the pitch, slightly edited by me with updated information and a deletion of a bad word…

A real broadcast TV buy - 390 gross ratings points for 55 and older. That age group will be at least half the Dem primary electorate.

The money total is at least $150,000 (trying to add more, but that much has been wired). The buy starts this weekend.

Here’s why, I think, it’s an interesting story.

Normally these judges have so few options running countywide and reaching a half a million voters or more. But this year is different because the TV sweeps period is over and rates are cheaper. Admittedly, there are less eyeballs around because it’s summer, but we are about to have our first primary in June in our history. Turnout could be [very] low and if it is, those are older people, more likely to be Black, and less likely to be jet-setting out of town. So, they’ll catch daytime TV and some news.

Howard and Tom teaming up like this gets a lower cost to each candidate, but also something kind of memorable. This ad stands out in the crowd and it also repeats their names four times with “Democrats” on the screen the whole time.

So, something like this never happens but for the fact that our primary was moved. It’s rate the ad and rate the strategy.

You can feel free to rate both the ad and the strategy, and/or talk about what you think turnout will be and who will vote and what that could mean.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:21 pm

Comments

Rate the Ad- - - A
Like the strategy. Mentioning their names, the race they are in and their qualifications in such a short time period was pretty impressive.
As to turn out, I think the turnout will be low. All these negative Ads don’t help get voters excited about turning out.
In closing, nice to see a positive Ad that was well done.

Comment by Back to the Future Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:37 pm
B it’s bland, but maybe that’s good. in a time when there is so much acrimony, maybe this commercial of unexpecteds connect.

Comment by Amalia Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:37 pm
–Turnout could be [very] low and if it is, those are older people, more likely to be Black, and less likely to be jet-setting out of town.–

Could make Fritz Kaegi sweat a bit. His base voters are more likely the “jet set” than Kari Steele’s.

Comment by King Louis XVI Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:40 pm
Two points deducted for ending with a synchronized arms-crossing.

Comment by Socially DIstant Watcher Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:44 pm
Got the niche type of window, the ad is a B+, and it’s also smart and savvy, a real textbook type of ad where intent and follow thru to that intent meld.

To turnout?

It’s quite easy to see right now, the turnout is going to be terribly low, that isn’t good for Dems leaning leftward, and Republicans leaning left too.

I’ve felt, as an opinion, that the conservative ideals and thoughts, in the case of the GOP at further Right lean, are going to outweigh in both parties come primary day.

Moderate Republicans, they might feel left out and that doesn’t help Irvin as he all but admitted, in a post Rich had up yesterday, the appeal that crew wants seen is a broad based, and well, those voters seemingly aren’t motivated right now.

Dems, leaning on the demo of younger, more progressive, more forward thinking, what candidacy is making them, in this primary, to get out and be heard? What race has a candidate that energizes that part of the Dems?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:47 pm
B+ Good production quality. Name recognition is key in Judge races.

Turnout is abysmally low on both sides so far. This could mean that Republicans, who do not especially lean toward early voting, will have better turnout come Election Day. Will it favor the more strident among them? Probably. I often guess wrong.

Comment by walker Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:48 pm
Could former early voters be voting by mail now? That’s what I shifted to during the pandemic and am not going back.

Comment by Big Dipper Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 1:51 pm
Prediction for turnout: older white people will vote in higher proportion than younger voters and voters of color. Because of the contested Governor’s race, the energy is on the R side. Still, many more Democratic ballots will be cast than Republicans. Turnout will be less than 40% overall.

Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 2:33 pm
The ad is a B for what it is but I’m not sure if it really resonates or is memorable in any way. Works for name recognition purposes.

I predict low turnout and it will probably bode well for the GOP particularly at the national level. I see and hear a lot of apathy among young people who don’t see much of a reason to vote for either party. They don’t seem to care that democracy is imperiled or often what it even is. They take a lot for granted.

To the extent their is energy among the electorate it seems to be with older folks who have grievances. Fortunately in Illinois the demographics favor the Dems so they should do fairly well. Things seem to be tacking very much to the right and in the collar counties surrounding Chicago that doesn’t resonate as well. And ironically downstate there could be some surprises in contested primaries among candidates who aren’t deemed conservative enough. The GOP will control the house come January and maybe the Senate. And it will be a complete circus.

Comment by Pundent Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 3:07 pm
Well done… direct, clear, answers ‘why I should vote for them’

Comment by South burbs Friday, Jun 17, 22 @ 3:15 pm