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Another day, another bad prediction

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Illinois

* Surprise! Tom DeVore was wrong again…

Mary Ann Ahern…

House Minority Leader Jim Durkin stands by his endorsement for Irvin, saying, ‘He is still the only person who can beat Pritzker in November. Richard Irvin is my candidate.’

* All sorts of rumors have been flying around and people are grasping at them out of fear that Darren Bailey could win the primary. Jesse Sullivan was supposedly gonna spend millions in the final week, for instance, but he upped his buy yesterday by only about $250K.

* There’s always the possibility that Bailey has peaked too soon. We’ve all seen it happen before. He could need that Trump endorsement more than ever right now. So, it’s probably no accident that this old photo of Jesse Sullivan appeared in MAA’s story yesterday…

Not to mention that the Democratic Party of Illinois sent out a mailer last week which effused over Paul Schimpf…

* From a Dem legislator…

I think Pritzker trying to prop up Schimpf is because his polling shows Sullivan gaining and they need to keep the more moderate voters scattered to make sure Bailey wins. Haven’t seen any private polling but that’s what their behavior tells me. And it tracks with Irvin bleeding support that will disproportionately go to non-Bailey candidates.

Not bad points.

Either way, the current frontrunner (according to four straight polls) is still mostly flying under the news media’s radar while he endorses Republican legislative candidates and travels the state. We could suck our thumbs all day wondering about possible horse race “intrigue” as big things are happening right under our noses.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:38 am

Comments

I’m not sure Irvin’s bleeding support really does go mostly to non-Bailey candidates. I think the differences between Irvin and Bailey are far more visible to us nerds than to most voters.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:42 am
Kass is pushing for Devore. ugh that guy…both of them.

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:44 am
Arsenal, it seems like a lot of the support coming to Bailey is from undecideds. Irvin’s polling peaked at around 25%, and he’s down in the 15% range now, so it’s not a huge amount of the primary elected going directly from Irvin to Bailey. Even with Bailey surging there are still a lot of undecideds left, and there isn’t a lot of evidence that Bailey can get above 50%. If the bottom really falls out on Irvin and it’s basically heads up between Bailey and Sullivan, Sullivan probably wins that. Pritzker is trying to find Bailey a path to win with 40-45%, which requires a couple of other candidates getting votes. There’s no way Pritzker is going to switch to helping Irvin, so getting Schimpf above 10% is pretty vital at this point.

Comment by vern Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:51 am
=== We could suck our thumbs all day … ===

Do I see a new daily feature like QoD for Capitol Fax - Today’s Thumb Sucking Topic.

=== Tom DeVore was wrong again… ===

When is DeVore correct?

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:52 am
Maybe a third place finish for Irvin? That would be something. In a low turnout summer primary he could set a statewide record for most dollars spent per vote.

Comment by Telly Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:54 am
Good for Sen. Bailey in joining Trump and Miller at Saturday’s rally, possibly boosting him further. Will see if it’s shown on Fox News.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 10:54 am
Man, there’s so much in this post going on, great stuff.

For me?

Bailey might’ve peaked, that’s more than possible and getting a bump from Trump could be the elixir needed… but Irvin seems now to be an afterthought and not a thought to the front of the discussion?

I don’t believe that Sullivan is surging, I do believe Sullivan and his crew want the appearance to be moving in these closing days.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:00 am
Jesse Sullivan is a strange cat. He seemed to be an Obama style Democrat with a dose of Catholic social teaching and an Irish last name. In other words, someone who could go far in the Democratic party (especially in Illinois). Why did he renounce everything to run (and lose) as a Republican?

Comment by Paddyrollingstone Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:01 am
I feel bad for anyone who buys anything Jesse Sullivan is selling.

Comment by AlfondoGonz Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:01 am
“Jimmy Boy Durkin”?

Everything is projection with these clowns, isn’t that right Tommy Boy?

Comment by Henry Francis Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:06 am
Certainly Jesse Sullivan’s history of being whoever he thinks other people think he should be, combined with his primary campaign of relentless God bothering and fake morality, would present Pritzker with a fearsome challenge in the general.

Comment by Larry Bowa Jr. Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:12 am
Laura Washington thinks Irvin’s best play is to go dark and send Sullivan some of Griffin’s cash to help Sully win over more undecideds.

I’m not sure that’s good advice.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:14 am
Bailey may have peaked, but I’m not seeing anyone that is picking up momentum. And merely sharing a stage with Trump may give his campaign some energy heading into the final days. At a time where more candidates should be distancing themselves from the former President, the base seems to be doubling down. Strange times.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:16 am
===Kass ===

His friends call him Jack. Jack Kass.

Comment by Suburban Mom Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:17 am
==Jesse Sullivan is a strange cat. He seemed to be an Obama style Democrat with a dose of Catholic social teaching and an Irish last name.==

Is Jesse Sullivan related to former Senator John Sullivan and his family? (Considering the close proximity between Jesse’s Petersburg and John’s Rushville).

Comment by Just Sayin Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:18 am
===He seemed to be an Obama style Democrat with a dose of Catholic social teaching and an Irish last name. In other words, someone who could go far in the Democratic party (especially in Illinois).===

This is exceptional. Well said. A conservative type Dem from California, makes one think.

===Why did he renounce everything to run (and lose) as a Republican?===

The real issue with Sullivan is the whole candidacy is performance art skirting around a cryptocurrency vibe and Silicon Valley cash.

Get a couple donors who think you can phony someone to mold into a caricature that hits on only the highlights one wants seen… then throw in stolen valor…

… they felt the GOP primary was ripe for that type of phony.

So many mistakes made.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:19 am
The only thing that could cost Bailey the nomination, at this point, is too many primary races in the Dem. Primary to keep dems from pulling a GOP ballot to give him the nomination.

Comment by frustrated GOP Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:22 am
Maybe Alan Keyes wasn’t hip enough for Jesse? That photo looks like 2004 Senate race to me.

Comment by Just Sayin Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:23 am
In my experience no one is talking about Jesse Sullivan. And that goes for people in Menard County.

The last big roundtable of GOP voters I sat at the conversation was only about Bailey and Irvin.

@Paddy - I agree about Jesse, and I also feel the same about Irvin. Those two are and could have been pretty good moderate Democrats to run at some point in a state wide race. But they both choose to jump in to a GOP that wants nothing to do with them.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:24 am
===to keep dems from pulling a GOP ballot===

lol

C’mon.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:27 am
DeVore’s histrionics are beyond tiresome. Can’t wait for the end of the primary round.

Comment by Rudy’s teeth Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:27 am
==If the bottom really falls out on Irvin and it’s basically heads up between Bailey and Sullivan==

It’s not.

I mean, I get it, but c’mon, there’s six days left, there’s no more permutations left in this race, and besides Sullivan trying to sell a surge on the back of Ryan Spain, no one is even trying to make one.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:29 am
===Can’t wait for the end of the primary round===

Don’t kid yourself. He could very well win that primary.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:30 am
==In my experience no one is talking about Jesse Sullivan. And that goes for people in Menard County.==

Plenty of Sully signs in Sangamon County. But for that matter, I saw a few Schimpf signs in Perry County this weekend. Geography counts.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:32 am
=In my experience no one is talking about Jesse Sullivan. And that goes for people in Menard County.=
I’ve seen a lot of signs popping up for Sullivan and people talking about him. In my neck of the woods, no one is talking about Irvin, they haven’t been since the first couple weeks of his initial broadcast blitz.
I think a lot of people here are tired of Bailey, they know he can’t win in the fall, and they’re looking for someone else. The few who were interested in Irvin early seem to be liking Sullivan as well. I think Jesse is pulling support from both camps, but I doubt enough to win.

Comment by Wonky Kong Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:34 am
IMHO, Schimpf, if funded, would be the best Republican candidate in a General Election.

Comment by Sandra Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:44 am
I don’t like the word phony, but Jesse Sullivan is quite the phony.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 11:47 am
That we are not talking about Irvin anymore has to indicate one of the biggest election flops in Illinois history. I cannot even think of a close second if this plays out as it appears to be.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:16 pm
@Wonky - I kinda shrug at yard signs. But the point is taken.

It still gives me pause to look at this motley cast of characters running for the GOP Governor’s nomination.

Has a state wide party ever been in such a disparate condition?

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:20 pm
The following would only have an effect in a tight-race, and maybe not even then, but…

Man is the Dem ballot boring up here - other than attorney general and maybe IL Supreme Court, is anything contested? Is it the same way in DuPage County? To the extent swing voters still exist and might find the GOP race more interesting, maybe that helps Irvin.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:20 pm
===I cannot even think of a close second if this plays out as it appears to be.===

Blair Hull…

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:21 pm
I just opened my Tubi app and there was a JB ad thanking Irvin for his support.

That is the most I’ve seen or heard about Irvin in the past week besides a tweet about an Irvin stop at some factory yesterday.

Comment by Baloneymous Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:22 pm
@Suburban Mom. thank you for the laugh. good thing I put down the iced tea by then…..

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:28 pm
==His friends call him Jack. Jack Kass.==

You stole that from Abe Lincoln or Henry Fonda.

Anyway, nice.

Comment by Bigtwich Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:32 pm
=====I cannot even think of a close second if this plays out as it appears to be.===

Blair Hull…==

Jack Ryan…

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:43 pm
Jack Ryan won the primary.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:45 pm
“there was a JB ad thanking Irvin for his support”

A TV ad that’s been on the air a lot is the one where Irvin is praising Pritzker, and what’s the point of Irvin even running? That and BLM support is about as establishment RINO as it gets. At that level of manufactured-ness, and feeling forced upon by party leadership, who can blame many in the base if they vote otherwise? It’s pretty insulting.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 12:54 pm
I feel bad for Rep. Bourne giving up her seat in the House to hitch her wagon to the Irvin campaign. As much as I disagree with her politically, she was a rising star in that seat. Following her State Rep Facebook page, her constituents have turned on her rather dramatically since she and Irvin announced.

Comment by Osborne Smith III Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:10 pm
===I feel bad for Rep. Bourne giving up her seat in the House to hitch her wagon to the Irvin campaign. As much as I disagree with her politically, she was a rising star in that seat.===

Wasted talent immediately comes to mind.

I won’t lose sleep if Bourne (herself, away from the ticket for a moment) loses. As a Raunerite who consistently chose to purposely hurt Illinois, she’d be out. And I’m more than fine with that.

On the political side, I never understood the move. Then it made less sense when Bourne coulda had a free shot at her House seat, then other options… all gone… to run against a billionaire, incumbent governor, polling above water.

Bourne will be fine.

Law school, lobbying type work that can be gotten, so many options, but “she’s out”, that’s it, and not many people get a second chance… like Jim Durkin.

Plus, goodness, Bourne has been quite absent, you could make arguments the campaign wholly misused her, never using her, and Bourne’s own profile was not enhanced by being on a few yard signs or cameo type sightings in ads.

Coulda got out of that Rauner shadow/stigma, made hay in the House, elsewhere, been in rooms where things happen. Wasted talent… come Wednesday, maybe a lame duck House member… if they lose.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:21 pm
@Lake County
The Secretary of State race is also contested.

From my ear to the ground in McHenry County it’s 1. Bailey 2. Rabine (he’s from here) and 3. Irvin.
Solomon has a ton of signs up at intersections but I think that’s due to one very fervent supporter.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:33 pm
==Then it made less sense when Bourne coulda had a free shot at her House seat==

Just goes to show you how lousy it is to be in the House minority.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:52 pm
Rabine should have run for McHenry sheriff. He can pursue his pro cop stuff from this position and have fun carrying a badge.

Comment by Fido Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 1:58 pm
==IMHO, Schimpf, if funded, would be the best Republican candidate in a General Election.==

Agree. Griffin bet on the wrong horse. He thought by running an African American he would cut into that voting base. Problem is, this is a primary and Irvin had way too much baggage to get through a Republican primary in these very weird times. It is obvious that Irvin was not properly vetted before he was slated.

In the event that there is a Republican wave in November, the right candidate could have beaten Pritzker, but neither Bailey or Irvin are that right candidate. Schimpf could have been.

Comment by Mistake Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:30 pm
==He thought by running an African American he would cut into that voting base.==

I think he also looked at Irvin’s tenure in Aurora and thought he was a guy who would play ball with Griffin.

And he was probably right. Everything about Irvin’s campaign screams that someone else wrote up the game plan and Irvin just did whatever they said.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 2:44 pm
@Sandra, @Mistake - who woulda coulda shoulda run for the Governor’s race from the existing R elected official options, who didn’t run statewide? McConchie?
Barrickman? Curran? Kinzinger? Davis? Should Bourne have demanded the top spot? Pekau instead of running for Congress (Cook County mayor who opposed Pritzker on the COVID mandates)? Dillard?

Comment by Mary Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 3:57 pm
==who woulda coulda shoulda run for the Governor’s race from the existing R elected official options, who didn’t run statewide?==

I think Davis coulda won the primary and given Pritzker everything he could handle.

I also think Kinzinger woulda beat Pritzker, but never made it out of the primary.

McConchnie and Barrickman would’ve lost, but you wouldn’t have to worry about JB making the rubble bounce like he might with Bailey.

Comment by Arsenal Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 4:17 pm
Stepping back: Those who most clearly expressed their authentic selves, Bailey, and Rabine, performed well with voters. Those who played roles defined primarily by highly-paid political staff, Irvin and Early-Sullivan, lost ground. Recent-Sullivan is gaining ground by becoming truer to himself.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 5:38 pm
Hey DeLoser - it’s “ abandon” not ” abandoned “ you goof .

Comment by Darren Bailey Sycophant Wednesday, Jun 22, 22 @ 8:12 pm