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No surprise: Sixth poll has Bailey leading pre-Trump endorsement; Brady has big advantage; DeVore still nip and tuck

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Illinois
Polls

* It’s from Ogden & Fry, but it lines up with other numbers we’ve seen. Governor…

Darren Bailey 37.6%
Gary Rabine 8.5%
Jesse Sullivan 17.2%
Max Solomon 0.8%
Paul Schimpf 3.2%
Richard Irvin 12.7%
Undecided 20.0%

After pushing the undecideds to make a decision…

Darren Bailey 44.8%
Gary Rabine 10.7%
Jesse Sullivan 21.4%
Max Solomon 1.1%
Paul Schimpf 4.9%
Richard Irvin 17.1%

* US Senate…

Anthony Williams 0.2%
Bobby Piton 3.3%
Casey Chleback 1.3%
Jimmy Lee Tillman II 2.2%
Kathy Salvi 20.1%
Maryann Mahlen 2.0%
Matthew Dubiel 6.3%
Peggy Hubbard 11.2%
Undecided 53.3%

After the push…

Anthony Williams 6.1%
Bobby Piton 9.4%
Casey Chleback 4.2%
Jimmy Lee Tillman II 4.7%
Kathy Salvi 38.2%
Maryann Mahlen 5.8%
Matthew Dubiel 10.0%
Peggy Hubbard 21.6%

* Secretary of State…

Dan Brady 42.4%
John Milhiser 18.2%
Undecided 39.4%

After the push…

Dan Brady 68.7%
John Milhiser 31.3%

* Attorney General…

David Shestokas 9.9%
Steve Kim 26.8%
Thomas DeVore 28.1%
Undecided 35.3%

After the push…

David Shestokas 19.0%
Steve Kim 38.6%
Thomas DeVore 42.4%

* Methodology…

Ogden & Fry conducted an eight-question poll June 24, 2022, with 518 respondents. Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely Republican voters. Responses were gathered through SMS to web. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 4.39% at the 95% confidence interval.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:12 am

Comments

Curious about the Davis/Miller polling. Maybe you’ve posted and I’ve missed.

Comment by Alice Childress Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:15 am
The Illinois Governor’s race is on track to be the most expensive non Presidential election in US history and yet turnout is historically low so far.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:15 am
I’m having to see Dan Brady get some love. That dude is a solid guy. He will out hustle anyone.

Comment by Just Me 2 Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:17 am
So basically other than Rep. Demmer and Shannon Teresi (who only have token opposition) all of Griffin’s folks are likely or going to lose. Yikes.

Comment by Sports Stooge Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:19 am
If the ticket ended up being Bailey/Kim/Salvi/Brady/Demmer/Theresi…that’s not ideal with Bailey but manageable. But adding Devore makes it an absolute train wreck.

Comment by CubsFan16 Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:19 am
No poll for SoS-DEM?

Comment by Save Ferris Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:21 am
== the most expensive non Presidential election in US history ==

Because Griffin (unsuccessfully) tried to buy the election.

Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:22 am
===The Illinois Governor’s race is on track to be the most expensive non Presidential election in US history and yet turnout is historically low so far.===

Could the time of year be a factor?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:24 am
Watched the Trump rally via one of the local stations or some other outlet. Powerful endorsement of Bailey (didn’t expect it). Thought maybe Trump would have given him a shout-out, but he went all the way.

The rally was in large part about distrust of voting machines/voting systems, so maybe there will be a larger group of Republicans voting same-day on Tuesday? That’s how a Trump endorsement could really help, since it came so late.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:28 am
Fifty million dollars for a third place finish?
I’d slink out of town, too.

Comment by Socially DIstant Watcher Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:28 am
For those that want Republicans to do well in Illinois, I’m happy to see that Kathy Salvi is on track to win the Senate nomination. I really hope Steve Kim makes it out of the primary. Devore could end up being an albatross to serious IL GOP candidates.

Comment by The Snowman Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:33 am
Anyone still want to argue that the MAGATs haven’t taken over ILGOP.

Comment by Norseman Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:33 am
If Demmer or Teresi somehow win in November, they will have plenty of Rauner/Irvin staffers to fill their offices with. Because Rodney’s office will likely no longer be a refuge either…

Comment by Skeptic Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:35 am
==Could the time of year be a factor? ==

I think that’s the biggest factor. It also hurts that the only contested races are between repellent candidates.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:38 am
===somehow win in November===

Gonna need some real cash behind them.

Seems like all the piggy banks left Dodge

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:38 am
==Devore could end up being an albatross to serious IL GOP candidates. ==

He could/would, but…Bailey. It’s like in Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid.
“I can’t swim.”
“Are you crazy, the fall is gonna kill you.”

It’s funny, tho, bc a few months ago I thought maybe Richard Irvin was going to be saddled with a lunatic Senate candidate. Now it looks more like the relatively respectable Salvi will be saddled with Bailey.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 9:42 am
I’m seeing some people say that Irvin would somehow do better than Bailey in the general.. but if nobody is voting for Irvin in the primary why would they want to vote for him in the general? People don’t see Irvin as a moderate to a far right Bailey. They see Irvin for who he is and that is an opportunist and charlatan.

Comment by Real Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:19 am
=turnout is historically low so far.=

Tomorrow is the actual in person election. Maybe give it a beat.

DeVore, sheesh what is wrong with the ILGOP?

That was rhetorical BTW.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:24 am
Arsenal — facts are important.

So let me provide a correction: The fall will PROBABLY kill you.

Comment by Soccermom Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:28 am
And let me just add — geez, Louise. The next time someone tells me my candidate is doomed because the opponent has more money, I am going to laugh and laugh and laugh. (And then I’m going to ask the DGA to get into the race to help us.)

Comment by Soccermom Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:28 am
“Respondents were selected by random sampling of likely Republican voters.”

I was sent this poll over SMS on Friday.

They consider me a ‘likely republican voter’. Their polling pool needs some work.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:31 am
==I’m seeing some people say that Irvin would somehow do better than Bailey in the general==

I think Irvin would perform a little better than Bailey, just because he’ll have enough money. But I don’t think it’d be a huge difference.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:32 am
Too bad for John Milhiser, decent guy.

Going to be a tad tough to decide on an moderate candidate(s).

Comment by BTO2 Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:56 am
“They see Irvin for who he is and that is an opportunist and charlatan.”

Trump just said at the rally that establishment RINO’s are worse than Democrats sometimes, and specifically cited a reason: no one really knows where they stand (paraphrasing).

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 10:59 am
When the Griff slate started coming together I immediately thought they were making big mistakes. But one of the biggest is one nobody is talking about. Why did they relegate Tom Demmer to Treasurer? Demmer is clearly one of the few decent candidates in the entire Republican Party. With money, Demmer would have won the primary for governor in a walk and would have been a competitive general election candidate. Instead he’s going to lose his office, run a shoe-string race which he will then lose to Willy’s favorite Democrat, Mike Frerichs, and never be heard from again.

As a Democrat that makes me happy but it seems just so so dumb.

Comment by New Day Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 11:28 am
Anybody seen any polling on Alexi vs Anna?

Comment by Rufus T. Firefly Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 11:49 am
-Too bad for John Milhiser, decent guy.-

He’s the one of the down ballot folks that ran up against a pretty well known opponent and didn’t get much money to do anything about it. His campaign also did a terrible job of messaging, running an AG campaign for SOS. I wonder if he would have had better success in that race than retread Steve Kim, but we’ll never know.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 11:56 am
Rufus asks about the Alexi-Anna showdown.
I haven’t seen any polls but if walking my precinct as I canvass for Marie Newman is any indication, Alexi will win bigly. Even my fellow fire-breathing feminists think Anna’s too ethically compromised.

Comment by Precinct Womyn Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 1:34 pm
“Alexi will win bigly”
Most (non-politically obsessed) people I speak with favor Alexi. They don’t say why. They don’t recall him ever being connected to anything shady. They don’t even remember him running for Senate in 2010. There’s just something about his name recognition that’s giving him a boost.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 2:34 pm
Did the helpful folks point out to the 5.8% who said they were voting for Mahlen that she was removed from the ballot?

Comment by Not a Mahlen Voter Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 3:40 pm
Wow, so is this why Ken Griffin is moving citadel? Pretty embarrassing showing for his guy.

Comment by Boone's is Back Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 3:44 pm
Outside of the Irvin implosion, depending on what happens tomorrow the Griffin slate could be a complete disaster. The sad thing is it didn’t necessarily have to be this way. I saw countless Bailey/Irvin/Pritzker/DGA ads, but the Milhiser & Kim ads like 1 time each and this the Springfield area. If the slate had gotten more than Irvin’s scraps, given the nature of the AG & SOS primaries, those 2 could could have done a better job of building name recognition.

Comment by MyTwoCents Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 5:04 pm
Loving the Dan Brady route. Would not be bullied out of the race by Mike Z.

Brady perhaps the lone GOP statewide victor in November. Old school, sane, a good guy. Keep Z a hundred miles from your campaign Dan.

Comment by Do It Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 6:58 pm
-When the Griff slate started coming together I immediately thought they were making big mistakes. But one of the biggest is one nobody is talking about. Why did they relegate Tom Demmer to Treasurer? Demmer is clearly one of the few decent candidates in the entire Republican Party.-

Clearly, Griffin was not interested in Gov candidate capable of thinking on his own.

Comment by Real Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 7:44 pm
== Loving the Dan Brady route. Would not be bullied out of the race by Mike Z.

Brady perhaps the lone GOP statewide victor in November. Old school, sane, a good guy. Keep Z a hundred miles from your campaign Dan==.

Brady had his race ran by 21 year old.

Comment by Win it Monday, Jun 27, 22 @ 7:55 pm