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Rate the new Pritzker ad

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* No letting up…

VO: On the issue of abortion, the Republican nominee for governor Darren Bailey has made his extreme views clear.

Bailey: I think we’re going to end this abortion thing, I think we’re going to end this travesty.

God is not going to heal our land until we repent of our ways.

Once Roe v. Wade is overturned, once abortion is made illegal, then we have to turn around…that’s not where it stops.

Interviewer: If somebody were raped or there was a matter of incest in the family, would you allow that woman to have an abortion?

Bailey: Right now, my answer is no.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:05 am

Comments

No quarter. No stoping.

Educating voters on Bailey now is a huge negative for Bailey, it’s this kind of full court press Bailey will face… every single day.

It’s an A-… Bailey is worse to Bailey than Pritzker, Bailey will be running “as he is” and running away from who he wants hidden.

Great ad. More to come, I’m sure

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:13 am
And here we go…….

B+/A-: I don’t want to give full on A’s at start of campaign. This was easy work for Pritzker campaign to get out.

Between this and the trainwreck interview Bailey had with Steve Cochran this morning, terrible start for the Bailey-heads in Illinois.

Comment by Hot Taeks Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:14 am
Yikes. How much of a treasure trove of video like this–from Bailey’s own mouth–is already cued up for play between now and November?

Comment by Vote Quimby Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:14 am
It appears some folks learned from the Fair Tax failure. Perfect introduction of Bailey to the rest of us.

Comment by Excitable Boy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:16 am
Rated A. Playing back someone’s own words is a great ad. Bailey should not shy away too much from who he is and where he stands, which gives him strength in the GOP base.

Comment by Grandson of Man Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:17 am
A. Simple. Timely. Use’s opponents own words on a hot-button issue where he takes a 10-15% position to paint him as a religious extremist.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:18 am
A. Solid body shot.
DBs words, his voice.

“God is not going to heal our land until we repent of our ways.“
Best suited for the pulpit, amid true believers.
Not as a guiding belief for making public policy.

Comment by Langhorne Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:18 am
// Bailey: Right now, my answer is no. //

Easy — two steps.

1) Redirect farm subsidy monies to supporting these forced families instead of propping-up farmers and their offspring.

2) Tax non-profit religious schools and camps and use those funds to support these kids.

Now what say you, Mr. Bailey?

Comment by XonXoff Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:18 am
“Right now, my answer is no.”

I really like this ad. Not only does it showcase Bailey’s position, but it also leaves an impression that this guy is just some typical politician who will flip-flop and lie to get your vote. A.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:19 am
The apostle Darren Bailey is speaking.

Pritzker’s Crew will raise up that voice.

Isn’t that what Bailey wants, spread the good news.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:19 am
==“God is not going to heal our land until we repent of our ways.“==

What a whacko.

Comment by So_Ill Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:20 am
I’d give it a solid A.
Media struggles to describe Republican policy positions accurately to the public. Pritzker is doing a public service here. Let all the people who don’t pay attention to politics hear what Republicans want for them.

Comment by Larry Bowa Jr. Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:21 am
@Larry Bowa Jr. ==Media struggles to describe Republican policy positions accurately to the public.==

My biggest problem with supposedly ‘neutral’ news organizations is that they repeat the lies and bad faith arguments of Republicans about their goals and aims as if they were credible denials, and spend minimal time on actually examining the votes taken.

Almost nothing the ILGOP or national party has been doing for the past few decades has been a surprise. It is only shocking if you chose to believe their years of pearl clutching.

Comment by Homebody Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:24 am
JB throwing big units in the primary paying off. He set himself up for victory.

Comment by Nazgul Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:24 am
A - Not waiting and coming out swinging. It’s what needs to happen. Play that one over and over in the Chicago burbs.

Comment by One Trick Pony Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:25 am
Political parties are not religion

*Apostle Bailey enters the chat*

Parties based on a premise of *faith* aren’t inclusive when you claim to believe the New Testament but show the Old Testament anger.

I don’t subscribe to Bailey’s politics

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:27 am
==Yikes. How much of a treasure trove of video like this–from Bailey’s own mouth–is already cued up for play between now and November?==

How much of this treasure for Pritzker is out there? A lot. A. Lot.

The ad is an A.

Bailey, by his own words, will be cooked before the last corn dog in Duquoin is in September. The far right got their candidate. My condolences to them in advance.

Comment by fs Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:27 am
A Expose the terrifying for what they are. my only quibble is that he’s almost a caricature, like a comedy sketch. could be A+ but the material is the material. Terrifying.

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:29 am
I live downstate.
What Gov. Pritzker calls extreme, an unfortunately large # of folks, call the proper thing to do.

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:30 am
Bruce, I live downstate too. This is not an ad for downstate. And those people are voting for the Republican no matter what anyway.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:32 am
Give the ad an A. No time to wait with the late primary. More like this, please.

Comment by (618) Democrat Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:32 am
==I live downstate…an unfortunately large # of folks, call the proper thing to do.==

Meanwhile, 80-85% of the rest of Illinois call it extreme.

Comment by fs Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:32 am
**What Gov. Pritzker calls extreme, an unfortunately large # of folks, call the proper thing to do.**

Those people definitely are not the target audience, and are already very unlikely to vote for JB.

Comment by SaulGoodman Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:33 am
Pritzker is going to Poshard-ize Darren Bailey north of I-80 this summer. How times have changed.

Comment by ZC Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:33 am
It’s an A. They have enough fodder to show general election voters how far right and extreme Bailey is. Bailey has no record in the House or Senate to run on. At some point he will need to actually act gubernatorial and that’s gonna be painful to watch. Bailey is gonna be backpedaling until he falls backwards this fall, dragging the Republican Party down with him.

Comment by B Team Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:34 am
It’s matter of incest not pattern. Would hope you would not need several occurrences.

Comment by Big Dipper Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:34 am
The ad is an A. But in fairness Bailey’s comments and positions make it a bit easy. And the thing about Bailey is their won’t be a pivot. He is who he is. Irvin clearly was leaving himself room to reinvent himself in the general. That’s not who Bailey is. If anything, I expect him to double down. In many respects that’s what his supporters expect as well.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:34 am
So. I’ll DB is not a whacko because he has strongly held religious beliefs. He is whacko because he wants to mandate them on me. I think JB’s time does a great job of not attacking the man–but his words. Great ad. A plus.

Comment by Me Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:35 am
But, but, but, I thought the main issue was crime./s

The ad’s an A-.

And if you haven’t already, you might want to look up Dominionism.

Comment by G'Kar Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:36 am
“Yikes. How much of a treasure trove of video like this–from Bailey’s own mouth–is already cued up for play between now and November?”

A LOT. A WHOLE LOT.

On the ad, it’s clearly an A. Uses Bailey against Bailey on a critical issue for Ds and moderate Rs. Put the foot on the throat. Keep it on the throat until 7pm on 11/1. Run like you’re ten points down regardless of the polls.

Comment by New Day Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:36 am
=== lMeanwhile, 80-85% of the rest of Illinois call it extreme.===

Cite olease?

Further, if Bailey is “no exceptions”… you think 80-85 agree there?

I don’t think so, I can cite the abortion “no exceptions” if you like.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:36 am
A— it is timely and effective. It will hit where it’s aimed at. Making many Republicans realize that Bailey is not what they want, and if they can’t switch to vote for JB at least they won’t vote for Bailey. Also will sway some independent away from him and to JB.

Can Bailey move out of the tent revival mode and not be seen as flip flopping?

Comment by SOIL M Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:36 am
Yikes. 12 hours in and Bailey is cooked. I will vote for him out of party loyalty, but yikes.

His interview with Cochran shows that as in over his head as Irvin was for a Republican Primary, Bailey is for the General Election.

In the end, he will wish he had never run much less won. He will be embarrassed on a national stage. Trump and all his followers hate losers (well other than Trump himself) and will forget they ever met him. He might not even be able to get a guest hosting gig on Prof(i)t’s low-ratings radio show.

Comment by DougChicago Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:37 am
Gov. Pritzker must realize that in parts of Illinois Bailey’s comments are exactly what they want to hear. The Gov. needs to address this. There are still those downstate who see through Bailey’s BS but not many. I know some who think the Gov.’s adds tell them why they should vote for Bailey. Bailey as Gov. would be a disaster for Illinois.

Comment by TJ Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:39 am
===I will vote for him out of party loyalty==

Faith based voting?

I kid, I kid.

===is not a whacko because he has strongly held religious beliefs. He is whacko because he wants to mandate them on me. ===

… and THAT… is restaurant quality, THAT is the ball game, THAT is the problem Bailey will face.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:39 am
==Cite olease?==

The polls over the last few months.

https://www.fox32chicago.com/news/abortion-poll-finds-majority-of-illinois-resident-are-pro-choice-only-14-pro-life.amp

==Further, if Bailey is “no exceptions”… you think 80-85 agree there?==

No, I said 80-85% find his position extreme

Comment by fs Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:41 am
Always-Always appreciate a cite. Thank you.

===No, I said 80-85% find his position extreme===

All Pritzker needs to do is not make it about “extreme”, They only need to show Bailey as dangerous to women’s health.

That’s my thought to it.

Good stuff, thanks for that cite. Be well.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:45 am
I’d give it an A. It achieves JB’s objective of defining Bailey outside the political mainstream of Illinois in Bailey’s own words. The only question left after these sorts of ads is : will Bailey lose by more than 15.5% ? I can’t imagine RGA giving Bailey any money when they can use their money in more competitive states.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:46 am
His body language at the end and the way he answers it is not how you would want a candidate to answer that.

“Right now my answer is no”
Not even a great answer for the pro-life crowd.

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:49 am
Ran across this yesterday. Depending on what happens in various areas including abortion rights over the summer, just “catching the car” may not be enough to “convert” voters to the Bailey Revival Tent. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/religious-landscape-study/state/illinois/party-affiliation/

Comment by Anon221 Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:49 am
rule #1: define your opponent before he can define himself.

check…

Comment by bored now Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:51 am
btw, meant to ask: do we have any idea how big the buy is?

Comment by bored now Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:51 am
=Gov. Pritzker must realize that in parts of Illinois Bailey’s comments are exactly what they want to hear. The Gov. needs to address this.=

Those people aren’t going to vote for JB anyways, these are the same far-right zealots who will never vote for a Dem in their lifetime. Leave them in the stone ages.

Comment by A-Man Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:54 am
= then we have to turn around…that’s not where it stops. =

And what does he mean by that? Overturn Griswold? Voters want to know.

Comment by JoanP Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:55 am
Great ad. The timing is perfect for this issue. Don’t let up.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:55 am
Bailey, DeVore and McHaney all won. The brain trust of southern Illinos!!!! Remember those COVID names?

Comment by So of I-64 Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 10:58 am
= And the thing about Bailey is their won’t be a pivot. He is who he is. Irvin clearly was leaving himself room to reinvent himself in the general. That’s not who Bailey is. If anything, I expect him to double down.=
This is spot on. Bailey is going to keep being Bailey. He doesn’t want to reinvent himself for voters, he wants to convince them to come to his side.
To the post: A. It’s quick, it’s clear, it’s concise, and it took literally no effort to put together. This is an easy roadmap to move forward with. This is why Pritzker wanted Bailey in the general. It makes me sad that the gov spent millions to give this guy a bigger platform and make him look more legitimate, but JB cares far more about winning and launching his next campaign than he does about what’s best for the people of Illinois.

Comment by Wonky Kong Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:01 am
=Gov. Pritzker must realize that in parts of Illinois Bailey’s comments are exactly what they want to hear. The Gov. needs to address this.=

Why does JB need to address it, but DB doesn’t have to address the pro-women’s-liberty side of the equation?

Comes across as typical whining.

Comment by Chris Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:02 am
I don’t understand how this hurts him in the sense of policy. GA will be run by Dems. How can he pass anything on this issue if that’s the case?

Moot point in my opinion. Will see how it plays. Truly fearmongering at this point but with the state of Dem elections across the country I suppose it is the smart move.

Comment by Politics Drives Policy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:05 am
Downstate Bailey’s message will play. JB can not underestimate the level of dissatisfaction with government at all levels. JB has to get a certain number of votes in the city and collars to offset Bailey’s motivated base downstate which I suspect with be higher than normal for a non-presidential election in Illinois. I think there is a chance Bailey runs better than Bill Brady did against Quinn.

Comment by Henry Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:06 am
=== I don’t understand how this hurts him in the sense of policy. GA will be run by Dems. How can he pass anything on this issue if that’s the case?===

If you aren’t fighting for pro-life, you’re against pro-life policy.

That’s the ball game here

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:10 am
Took less than 24 hours to drop the ads accusing him of being ‘too pro-life’

A quick but not unexpected shift.

Comment by Nick Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:13 am
=Gov. Pritzker must realize that in parts of Illinois Bailey’s comments are exactly what they want to hear. The Gov. needs to address this.=

That’s why ads are selectively tailored to the markets in which they run. Also there aren’t enough people who agree with Bailey’s as far right as possible position on this issue in IL to counter the multiple times more who will be repulsed by it.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:14 am
=== A quick===

“Life moves pretty fast…”

- Ferris Bueller

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:15 am
Sorry. it wasn’t 12, it was 2014.

Sorry about that.

Comment by Try-4-Truth Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:27 am
To the post.

Solid A ad. Expect more and more of JB defining Bailey. JB is going to try to win this race before Memorial Day.

To paraphrase Bailey’s favorite President, I think he’s “going to go through some things”…

Comment by Try-4-Truth Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:30 am
Try-4-Truth, I think you mean ‘before Labor Day’, but I also think JB already won the race well before Memorial Day….

Comment by Concerned Observer Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:30 am
Solid A. JB gives no quarter. DB is going to have to pivot (unlikely) or go full MAGA in a state biden won by 17.

Comment by Jocko Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:34 am
As has been said in the preceding months on this site, Pritzker could have run this ad during the primaries, but it hits a whole lot different in the general, don’t it, Darren. And this is just the amuse bouche - a first taste. We aren’t even into the appetizers yet, much less the main course.

I don’t know if Darren realizes it or not, but the course ahead for him is to stay the course, take his beating in November, and rake in all that easy money from the True Believers for the rest of his days. If he’s not smart enough to figure that out, a tougher road lay ahead.

Comment by Roadrager Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:38 am
Lot of rounds in the corn patch instead of the capitol patch ahead for Bailey to rehash “no” and the meaning of land healing.

Comment by vole Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:38 am
‘Right now, I would say no’. That was a killer uppercut to himself. Leaving the impression there COULD be exceptions (‘like what?’) and makes you wonder whether he has ever considered the issue in depth. That said, not that long ago very few on this blog thought he’d make it to the end, much less win it. This is a crazy time - he might end up the contemporary Putney Swope.

Comment by Sayitaintso Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 11:41 am
Solid A-, my only gripe is that I like to see an ask or a button comment from JB at the end to finish these off. Whatever the magafolk in the south think, they are outnumbered midstate and especially in Chicago and the collars. All JB needs to win is activate those voters and this year especially, the women, so a drumbeat on the abortion issue is going to get that done.

Comment by Give Us Barabbas Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:09 pm
Great ad, A. Using his own words against him. Keep your foot on his neck, JB.

Comment by Tony DeKalb Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:13 pm
==JB has to get a certain number of votes in the city and collars to offset Bailey’s motivated base downstate which I suspect with be higher than normal for a non-presidential election in Illinois.==

Per 2020 Census data, about 3/5 of Illinois’ counties have a population lower than the average Chicago ward. Add blue Cook and an ever-purpling DuPage together, and you get half the state’s population.

This is not a “most counties wins” race. It is a “most votes wins” race.

What sort of crossover messaging does Darren Bailey have to reach the parts of the state where voters reside en masse? His plan for forcible secession isn’t coming to pass before November.

Comment by Roadrager Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:15 pm
Now do the farm subsidies and forgiven PPP loans.

Comment by Ryan Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:19 pm
Not much you can do when your own words bite you in the butt.

Comment by Huh? Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:21 pm
The ad is a solid A-, a solid shot to the body. The governor came out swinging last night and it was great to see.

My take is that this is the angry JB Pritzker after two years of Bailey’s attacks the governor is now dishing out payback. I don’t know if he operates that way but I wold like it a lot if he did.

While running for the nomination Bailey only had to appeal to republicans and largely stayed in the ever so comfortable right wing echo chamber. He also was the recipient of some DGA and Pritzker financial tailwinds.

Now comes the general.LOL.

Sure, he does not have to worry about the “my party right or wrong (or traitorous)” folks. But they won’t get him elected. He has to win over voters in areas he wanted to cast out of Illinois.

These folks will be reminded of that effort. Good luck Darren.

This ad is a love tap.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:21 pm
Rate A
Caught the interview with Steve Cochran this morning. A disaster for Bailey as he’s tripping over his remarks about Chicago. Bailey will need a very large shovel to dig himself out of that hole.

Comment by Rudy’s teeth Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:27 pm
also, just as a woman watching commentary for Bailey, so so devastated that this is the thinking. go win JB

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 12:32 pm
Darren Bailey exposes his misogynistic views on issues pertaining to women. The forthcoming clips will be a gut punch to his candidacy.

Comment by Rudy’s teeth Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:00 pm
// Now do the farm subsidies and forgiven PPP loans. //

Yes, please.

Comment by XonXoff Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:02 pm
Truth?

There’s roughly 14 weeks left.

Pritzker spends, on average, $1.5 million a week on TV, every week, $1.5 million, $200,000 or so, a day, every day, $21 million… just on ads to define Bailey, after already raising Bailey’s profile…

… it’s still less than what it could’ve been with Griffin… and very doable.

This is a mere… opening salvo…

This isn’t even a start.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:09 pm
===There’s roughly 14 weeks left.===

Early voting…. The election begins once folks can cast ballots.

Then its chasing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 1:12 pm
A to A-
Solid message and keep pounding that drum.
From a production standpoint, it could be better. Some of the visuals, especially in the opening, are a little hard on the eyes and it would be more effective if they gave a moment of silence between sound bites to let his words sink in with the listener.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 2:10 pm
Solid A. I’d call it a good ad campaign if they only play this ad repeatedly

Comment by crow04 Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 3:23 pm
Isn’t Bailey the candidate who wants to appoint an Ambassador to Chicago, not personally able to abide Sodom on the lake?

Comment by Askin Wednesday, Jun 29, 22 @ 5:17 pm