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Why is Chicago’s homicide rate so much higher than LA and NY?

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* Crain’s chart…

* From the story…

New York and Los Angeles have invested more—and more consistently, in a data-driven way—in an ecosystem of nonenforcement services. These outreach programs, which emphasize prevention and intervention, directly invest in communities with the highest levels of violence. These strategies have been implemented to complement the police, not replace them. […]

[Roseanna Ander, founding executive director of the University of Chicago Crime Lab] pointed to L.A.’s “Gang Reduction and Youth Development” program as an effective example of nonenforcement services. GRYD provides gang prevention and intervention services in 23 designated areas of the city. The program works to prevent gang-joining among youth ages 10 through 15, and to reduce gang-embeddedness among people ages 14 through 25.

However, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the city of Chicago created the Community Safety Coordination Center (CSCC), which fights against gun-violence using data and community-driven strategies. “CSCC and other social program investments (in Chicago) are still in their early days, though it seems like an encouraging step consistent with the non-enforcement investments and efforts of Los Angeles and New York City,” Ander said.

Ander also noted New York City’s and L.A.’s improved policing as a hypothesis for lower homicide rates. “As the accountability and progress of policing improved, community trust improved. If you can do a better job of clearance and closure, it can help break a retaliatory cycle,” Ander said.

As for the Chicago Police Department: “We continue to see vestiges of the machine,” Ander added, referring to the “boss” politics of Chicago during the late 19th and early 20th century. Promotions within the department may not necessarily reflect quality-of-work performance. “Stepped-up investments in outreach are a step in the right direction, but we still need to improve the quality of policing.”

Go read the rest and tell us what you think.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:27 pm

Comments

- in a data-driven way -

That’s it. That’s the reason. No need to add any more complexities.

To wit;

“Promotions within the department may not necessarily reflect quality-of-work performance.”

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:33 pm
“Investing in non-policing intervention strategies

Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:39 pm
The FOID card. Snark intended.

Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:41 pm
Obviously, best practice research is a tool CPD and CPD’s political overseers has yet to grasp.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:47 pm
One key difference between Chicago and NYC and Los Angeles is our border with Indiana. A significant percentage of illegal firearms come to Chicago via Indiana. Easier access to firearms is part of the story behind Chicago’s violence.

Also, according to this site, Chicago’s murder rate ranks #10 on the list of US cities. FWIW.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-city-rankings/cities-with-most-murders

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:47 pm
Because Indiana

Comment by Birds on the Bat Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 1:49 pm
For years at neighborhood CPD meetings I’d ask cops afterwards why they think Chicago’s shooting numbers were so much higher than NYC and LA and nobody ever had a good answer (nor did I) but that Crain’s feature is the best answer I’ve read on maybe getting towards an answer. Good stuff from that researcher on the byline.

Comment by ChicagoBars Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:04 pm
When is the last time a Chicago mayor and their PD have been on the same page? This report seems too heavy on blaming one side of that equation and not the other. I would like to see a mayor (and other Chicago leadership) that fights with the police but it just seems an entrenched battle. I’d also add the schools are getting that way too.

Comment by Lurker Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:10 pm
What exactly does a non policing intervention strategy look like for dealing with repeat offenders in violent drug dealing gangs fighting over territories ?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:12 pm
When was the last time elected Democrats were on the same page as the vast majority of States Attorneys and Law enforcement professionals in Illinois?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:15 pm
can’t remember stories about homicides before and after several housing developments were taken down in Chicago but know from police discussions that gang fragmentation has led to all sorts of differences in crime. this is a regular topic of discussion regarding drug dealing. don’t believe the same housing development changes occurred in NYC and LA. this is a big difference.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:18 pm
How much of Ken Griffin’s money has the Crime Lab spent on social workers?

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:21 pm
=violent drug dealing gangs fighting over territories ?=

First, your questions are facile. second, if you are going to post about gangs understand their dynamics in 2022 not 1986.

=vast majority of States Attorneys and Law enforcement professionals in Illinois?=

When was the last time these people were on the same page as the vast majority of Illinois citizens? States attorneys are elected at the county level and the vast majority do not represent the vast majority of our population.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:30 pm
One factor is jobs for youth to provide them income and keep them out of trouble. The concentration of poverty and corresponding lack of jobs is more of a problem in Chicago than NYC and LA. I looked but could not find labor force participation rate among young people for Chicago. In 2021, NYC was 41.6% and LA was 61.8%, but this is generic City wide info.

Comment by City Guy Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:42 pm
One theory that needs more examination is the “lead–crime hypothesis.” It holds that crime spiked throughout the U.S. with the introduction of lead to automotive gasoline in the mid-20th Century and then crime steadily declined as lead was removed from from fuel. Lead exposure has been proven to cause cognitive problems for young people, including learning disabilities and behavior disorders. The lead-crime hypothesis holds that lead exposure may cause criminal behavior.

In Chicago, automobile emissions weren’t the only large source of lead in the environment — the water supply was and still is. That could explain why Chicago has not experienced the same peace dividend in crime rate declines that LA and NYC have enjoyed. Crime has gone down here, just not as much. Just as lead exposure has gone down here, but not as much.

Comment by STP Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:47 pm
Didn’t really expect a Crain’s article to back up a 3-year old op-ed from Kim Foxx and Arne Duncan. But here we are…

https://chicago.suntimes.com/2019/1/9/18418615/chicago-must-learn-from-l-a-and-new-york-that-murder-is-more-than-a-policing-problem?_amp=true

Comment by Anon324 Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 2:50 pm
==What exactly does a non policing intervention strategy look like for dealing with repeat offenders in violent drug dealing gangs fighting over territories ? ==

Investing in non-police interventions doesn’t equal the end of all police interventions. In fact, police would be freed up to better respond to the exact situations you are “concerned” about.

Comment by supplied_demand Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 3:05 pm
Indiana, lol, it was only a matter of time before that tripe came up. Gun buyers in Indiana have to pass the same background checks as those in Illinois and everywhere else. Of course all guns recovered in Chicago originated elsewhere, because there isn’t a single gun store in Chicago and only a couple in all of cook.

Comment by Puppeteer Extraordinaire Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 3:15 pm
Must be because of downstate.
Yeh, that’s it. All those red counties down there. /S

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 3:17 pm
47th Ward—-

Your point is correct, but you linked to 2017 data. And then that link states “NYC not in the top 50” linking to another page that puts Chicago 28th.

There was a 2022 half year analysis done by AH Datalytics (not vouching for them) based on available homicide numbers of 31 cities over 200,000 population—including NY, LA and Chicago. Chicago was 15th out of 31, at 11.3/100k, slightly lower than Cincinnati, and a bit higher than Louisville. Way, way higher than either NY or LA, of course, but 70% lower than #1 on the list, New Orleans.

So, the song remains the same—Chicago has a homicide rate somewhat higher than the nation as a whole, much worse than LA and NY, but nowhere near as bad as indicated by the coverage.

Comment by Chris Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 3:32 pm
Thanks Chris. I should have checked the data and not simply relied on the headline. My bad.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 3:39 pm
I’m intrigued by Amalia’s point re “ housing developments were taken down.” I’ve always considered that dispersion/reduction in larger controlled gangs to be a root cause for high gun crime but it’s hard to prove. If LA and NY haven’t decentralized public housing and/or haven’t broke up the big organized gangs, the murder spread makes sense.

Comment by WestBurbs Tuesday, Aug 9, 22 @ 11:52 pm
“ If LA and NY haven’t decentralized public housing”

The LA housing authority has something like 6,000 units—there’s nothing to decentralize.

NY is the other extreme—NYCHA has 169,000 units and over 350,000 residents. There’s nowhere to move that many people in NYC. And then there are another ~90,000 section 8 vouchers on top of that.

So, neither have had a “plan for transformation” type upheaval, but for very different reasons.

Comment by Chris Wednesday, Aug 10, 22 @ 11:31 am