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Question of the day

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Illinois
Obama

We haven’t done this in a while, so how do you think our US Senator’s presidential campaign is going these days?

Explain, please.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 9:59 am

Comments

95% certain to be the nominee. 3-2 that he’ll win in November. It’s going very well.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:04 am
Durbin is going nowhere, fast.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:04 am
Much better than I expected.

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:06 am
Sen. Obama’s campaign is moving right along. I won’t vote for him, but he is raising money and keeping the campaign on track despite outside attempts to derail it.

Comment by Fan of the Game Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:09 am
Very nice indeed. He’ll lose PA by 5, win NC by 17, win IN by 2. HRC isn’t going anywhere, so he just needs to stay positive and stay on track - she’ll derail herself.

Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:25 am
Sorry missed the ‘explain’

Well considering how we here understand the
‘Obama freight train of manifest destiny’ and how it crushes all. That string of wins he put together and how he has the woman who as the presumptive nominee at one time totally on the ropes and looking for super delegates to save her. I think he has done well.

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:27 am
I think he has done a remarkable job on many levels. In a very short time, he has gone from having very little national identity to being very well known. He has managed an enormous campaign with single-minded vision and still has been very nimble when necessary. He has managed to stay optimistic and not spend too much time in the Clinton gutter while still defending himself assertively. His ability to inspire people to volunteer and to donate money has been beyond impressive. I am also satisfied that he has stood up to the Clinton machine and the Clintons individually. It takes no small amount of political courage to stand up to a charismatic and beloved (by dems anyway) person like Bill Clinton. And it takes finesse and talent to “beat up” a female opponent without making her look like a victim. He has stumbled mightily on occasion. He could have had this nomination sewn up after New Hampshire had he and his campaign not basked too long in the Iowa victory’s glow and he should have fronted the Rev. Wright issue earlier and more effectively. But if one big knock on him is his lack of executive experience, his work on this campaign has demonstrated that he has the skill, the brains and the tenacity to be a terrific executive.

Comment by chiatty Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:30 am
The mere fact that he has been very successful in not being forced into the political mud of the Clinton pig pen is quite impressive. By staying above the negativity he appears positive and optimistic - a refreshing image. I think he will beat Clinton handily but then lose the general in a resounding defeat. His platitudes and generalities don’t offer a clear enough platform to analyze and form conclusions.

Comment by A Citizen Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:44 am
Talking with some guys who saw my Obama bumer sticker while filling up in Missouri (20 cent/gal higher in Illinois…where’s that gas sales tax break!?), the Wright tapes are an obstacle. But then Penn helps out our cause by proving nothing’s changed in the Clinton camp. Obama’s still raising cash, and if he can get delegates to stop saying ‘monkey’ and any other potentially offensive word in the English (and other) languages, he should cruise to the nomination. Of course that won’t happen until the convention, as HRC said ‘there is no such thing as a pledged delegate.’
IF he gets the nomination, he will overwhelm McCain in the fall.

Comment by Trapped In The Metro East Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 11:10 am
As a Once-upon-a-time Bill Clinton Advocate, Obama would have to have a pretty serious fumble to lose the game at this point. I’m one of those statistics you keep hearing about. It was my first primary vote, my first presidential contribution, and the thing about small donations is you can do it several times. Some may scoff at my $25 donations, but I’ve done 5 so far. And many, MANY others have done likewise. That’s why his money isn’t running out any time soon.

As far as the big picture, Bush tainting the Republican name plus the war will be what tips a close race into Obama’s hands.

Comment by Learning the Ropes Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 11:16 am
A Citizen is correct.

Comment by Patriot Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 11:18 am
P.S. I thought this was entertaining and relevant enough to share. Hilary argues that Memphis entitled to victory, regardless of KU’s higher point total.

Comment by Learning the Ropes Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 11:23 am
Since Obama has won the most states and the most delegates, his campaign is going very well. He’ll probably win the nomination and the general election. I hope that I’m wrong. I think that Bush is too liberal.

Comment by PhilCollins Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 11:30 am
Sen. Obama is in the catbird seat.

But unless the Pennsylvania coverage of the Bill Clinton/Mark Penn covert push for Bush’s Columbia Jobs Export Bill is stronger, the Obama campaign is missing a golden opportunity.

– SCAM
so-called “Austin Mayor”
http://austinmayor.blogspot.com

Comment by so-called "Austin Mayor" Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 11:34 am
Seems to be going well. Getting tons of earned media because he is still the MSM’s favorite. What bothers me is his inattention to the job the taxpayers are paying him to do, e.g., U.S.Senator. O-K he shows up for the photo-ops like yesterday;s hearing, but in the SJ-R’s “How Did They Vote” column on Sundays, he seems to be mostly recorded as “Did Not Vote”. If he doesn’t have time for the job, he ought to resign and we can all see what HotRod will do with the vacancy…

Comment by BehindTheScenes Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 12:11 pm
He is almost certain to win the Democrat primary short of something from far far right happening, but the last few weeks I believe have raised some legitimate question about his chance in November.

Comment by RMW Stanford Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 12:20 pm
He is doing well. Time is definetly on his side. As time passes his numbers and support overall are increasing. I do not think he can win Penn (although it would help to end this thing early if he did) but it looks like HRC margin of victory will be under 10pnts, which is an effective win and stop HRC from making any real ground. Obama is still picking up a few supers, while HRC has stalled in this area. But the most telling moment, when the HRC super from MO said Obama was going to win.

Comment by Ghost Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 12:32 pm
A citizen IS correct !!

Comment by ANOTHER CITIZEN Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 1:22 pm
I think he is doing very well and should win both the primary and the general election.

His campaign is very well run and has made few mistakes.

One concern is Obama is letting opponents define him. For instance, during the criticism of his church, there was no discussion that his denomination, United Church of Christ, is one of the oldest, most established denominations in America(They use to be called Congregationalist).

He has also allowed himself to be labeled as all talk and no substance. This attitude is reflected in this blog’s comments. The reality is he has as much substance as his opponents. I’ve seen analysis confirming this and can see it on his web-site. Plus I have heard him speak intelligently about complex issues and have never seen him display ignorance on an important issue. Contrast this with McCain, who keeps confusing Sunni with Shiites. But the McCain has been defined as “knowledgeable” and “independent” and a “reformer” despite the reality.

Comment by Objective Dem Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 1:28 pm
Senator Obama has proven that he is better able to inspire voters,raise money, manage a campaign, and organize voters than all his opponents put together.

I can’t foresee any possibility that Hillary Clinton will be nominated. It doesn’t seem plausible to me that the superdelegates will pick Hillary since she will be behind Obama in money raised, pledged delegates, and popular votes.

The only thing other than brains and ruthlessness that Hillary Clinton has going foor her is that she is a former President’s wife. She has proven that she will say and do anything to be nominated and elected President.

Any relationship between the truth and the Clinton’s is largely coincidental.If I were Obama, I’d nail her bigtime on this issue. But he’s trying to run on a positive messeage of change and won’t do so.

Hillary will win in Penn, but lose the nomination to Obama, unless the convention becomes really deadlocked, in which case Al Gore might get the nod.

I never had much doubt that Obama would be able to beat McCain. However the Wright sermons have given me pause. I also worry about the polls which suggest that a substantial portion of Clinton and Obama supporters will not vote for the eventual nominee if their candidate doesn’t prevail.

If I were betting, the odds appear to favor Obama becoming the next POTUS.

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 2:44 pm
The last time I commented on one of these questions, I said I would rather be in Barack Obama’s shoes than in the shoes of any of the other candidates in either party.

That comment remains operative.

Comment by Boone Logan Square Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 4:12 pm
Somehow O doesn’t seem like “our US Senator” anymore. He belongs to the nation, and like Lincoln, will one day belong to the ages (hopefully not in the same manner as Abe).

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 4:15 pm
Obama’s in good shape. He needs to start shifting the focus to attacking McCain and having his supporters do the same.

Hillary lost the nomination. She just won’t admit it. It’s virtually impossible for her to win at this point, barring a revelation that Obama’s hero is (insert genocidal dictator xxx here) or finding him with a dead girl or live boy.

Comment by jerry 101 Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 4:18 pm
He’s had very few slip-ups….and is very good on improv….my guess is that the Clintons finally through in the chips around he 1st week in May.

Comment by downhereforyears Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 4:28 pm
his campaign is clearly going well but all that glitters is not gold…

Comment by just a girl Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 5:56 pm
The campaign itself has gone incredibly well during the primary. I think they expected to have it rapped up right now, but other than that, Axelrod is one slippery fellow and its amazing some of this stuff hasn’t stuck more to Barry.

That being said, it doesn’t look very good for him in the GE at the moment. He should be up by at least 10 points, if not 20, over McCain right now with the economy, the unpopularity of Bush and the war, and the ridiculously positive coverage his campaign gets. The Dem overreaction to anything Mac says I think points to the validity of my analysis. They are scared by the public numbers and I’m sure they have in-house numbers that are even less favorable.

Someone above said he’s 3 to 2 to win the GE. I would say that right now, the odds are more like 1 to 1.

Comment by Bud Man Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 5:56 pm
I’d say that Obama is bound to win the primary and the general election. Of course I’ve been saying that for 5 years. He looks like and sounds like a winner. His opponent can’t seem to send out an honest objection.

Comment by Independent One Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 6:18 pm
I believe he has won the nomination essentially however HC refuses to give up feeling that if she can’t have it then no one should - of the dems. This will throw the GE to McCain, an outcome she and Bill would prefer if “they” can’t win (or steal) it. The Clintons are not good losers!

Comment by A Citizen Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 6:47 pm
Ya gotta admit, it’s a pretty impressive campaign.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 8:25 pm
I think he’s run a tremendous campaign and responded with the right message to all the negativity. Im glad he’s engaged so many in the political process, especially young people. There hasn’t been a presidential campaign in a long time that’s prompted so much discussion and even though there are those that say that dragging it out might be bad for Democrats I don’t think so. I think it just means that Democrats have a lot going for them, and the convention will create so much momentum that the final months of the campaign will be the way it should be, rather than people saying that they’re just tired of it already.

Comment by anonymous too Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 9:23 pm
What US Senator?? Has Obama even given the job a chance?

Comment by leatherneck Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 9:35 pm
What A Citizen said.

Plus his Chicago fundraisers (besides you-know-who) will come back to bite him in the caboose.

Comment by Fox Mulder Wednesday, Apr 9, 08 @ 10:29 pm
The untold story of this primary is how you are all tacitly admitting that the Republicans were right about the nasty lying Clintons all along. Course they were right about welfare reform, the communist threat, missile defense,gun control, and will be proven right about global warming, socialized medicine, and the war on terror too.
The left is intellectually bankrupt and that’s why you have to run an unknown pretty face instead of somebody who has well defined positions on all of the big issues liberals have championed over the last three decades.
The main stream media might slip this guy past the MTV generation once but the Dem national party is running on fumes emitted by move-on dot org crazies.

By the way, where are the tapes of all the good stuff that Rev. Wright says? We have yet to hear one sermon that was so inspiring it converted a muslim to christianity. The silence is deafening.

Comment by not drinking the kool aid Thursday, Apr 10, 08 @ 7:20 am