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Early poll has Lightfoot with very slight lead over Garcia

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Nuestro PAC — a national political action committee focusing on Latino voters — is urging Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, D-Ill., to jump into the Chicago mayoral race, commissioning a poll showing Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Garcia tied as the standouts in a big field and Lightfoot saddled with a high disapproval rating. […]

The polling firm Bendixen & Amandi talked to 400 likely voters on cell or land telephones between Sept. 1 and 5. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9%. I’m writing about this poll because I was given the entire survey, not just a summary or a press release. […]

Favorability: Garcia, scores 56% as very or somewhat favorable to 49% for Wilson; 47% for Lightfoot; 46% for Quinn; 38% for Vallas. Everyone else is under 26%.

Unfavorability: Looking at the somewhat to very unfavorable front where a smaller number is better - Lightfoot, 47%; Wilson, 29%; Quinn, 28%; Garcia, 20%; Vallas, 17%.

* Politico…

What the report doesn’t say: What the head-to-head numbers are between Lightfoot and Garcia. Not revealing those numbers has some wondering if Lightfoot has the edge in the race.

Breaking it down: The poll shows Lightfoot getting 25 percent to Garcia’s 24 percent. Businessman Willie Wilson: 13 percent. Former Chicago Public Schools chief Paul Vallas: 9 percent. And former Gov. Pat Quinn, who hasn’t officially jumped in the race, getting 6 percent.

The poll results show “the steep uphill battle” for the many candidates already in the mayor’s race with 67 percent of those surveyed saying they might change their minds, according to Sweet.

Interesting takeaway: The poll shows Lightfoot is winning with whites and Blacks and is second for the Latino vote.

[Note from Rich: Sweet said she was given the entire poll, so nothing was apparently withheld. Still, releasing a poll showing Garcia trailing Lightfoot, even within the MoE, with the hopes that it will push Garcia into the race without testing those one-on-one numbers is a bit odd.]

* More poll results from the Sun-Times…

By race:

Top three, by respondents who said they were Black: Lightfoot, 33%; Wilson, 19%; Garcia, 14%.

Top two, by respondents who said they were Hispanic: Garcia, 48%; Lightfoot 23%. All others below 5%.

Top three, by respondents who said they identify as Asian: Lightfoot, 33%; Quinn and Wilson, 17%. Everyone else at 0%.

posted by Isabel Miller
Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 10:13 am

Comments

Those are actually the most encouraging numbers I’ve seen for the mayor.

Comment by Roman Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 10:16 am
Roman, I agree.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 10:17 am
Run-off system or not, a sitting mayor at 25% is not a position of strength.

However, the Wilson/Vallas voters are more conservative and would likely pull for Lightfoot in a run-off against a progressive challenger.

Comment by NIU Grad Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 10:18 am
Not sure why Garcia would want to be mayor, but he did force Emmanuel into a runoff. Which he might well have won if the Laquan McDonald video had not been hidden away.

If Garcia does run, it seems he would have a strong chance in another runoff against Lightfoot this time.

Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 10:51 am
It’s a great poll for Garcia.

It shows there’s no way for Lightfoot to avoid a run-off.

It shows Garcia in a strong position to face Lightfoot in the run-off, despite having made no effort. Doubtless if he actually campaigned he would finish ahead of Lightfoot.

And it seems likely that Lightfoot would do no better than 25-30% of the vote in a run-off. That makes sense, that is her current job approval.

Those who think Lightfoot would get most of the Wilson or Vallas voters are mistaken. Those voters are against Lightfoot. Few people are gonna vote for someone that cannot stand to see on tv or in the newspaper for mayor, regardless of their politics.

This is the 2019 Preckwinkle-Lightfoot script, flipped.

Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 10:52 am
Her numbers look surprisingly good and not a surprise Chuy is playing games to leverage something else. He’s not getting in the mayoral race blender when he has a good thing going right now.

Comment by P Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 11:04 am
==Those who think Lightfoot would get most of the Wilson or Vallas voters are mistaken. Those voters are against Lightfoot==

If 2015 is any indication, Wilson voters will bounce back to Lightfoot in a run-off, especially against Chuy. If Rahm can win the South and West sides, Lightfoot should have no problem.

Comment by City Zen Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 11:23 am
great poll for Garcia. pre this past weekend, though. I’ve never seen such anger towards an ethnic celebration from people I know to be otherwise not conservative. getting caught in a scary gridlock with fireworks and crazy motorcycles has an effect.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 11:51 am
Maybe this poll will at least do a public service and keep Pat Quinn out. Dude, you’re behind Vallas.

Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 11:59 am
@City Zen -

Wilson voters did not “bounce back” to Lightfoot.

“Wilson voters” were anti-Preckwinkle voters, first and foremost, before anything.

They were Change Voters, and Preckwinkle was the status quo.

And then Wilson endorsed Lightfoot.

Now, Wilson and Vallas are both burning in the message that Lightfoot is doing a terrible job, with different audiences.

You think Wilson will endorse Lightfoot after telling everyone how awful she is for a year, or that if he did that endorsement would matter?

Wilson does not seem to me like the kind of guy who would endorse Lightfoot after running her down.

“Everything I said about Lightfoot is true, she’s awful, but Chuy is even worse because _______ .”

Because he’s Latino?

Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 12:05 pm
I read Sweet’s article about the poll. It seems quite apparent what the poll’s purpose was.

Comment by Chris in ChiTown Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 12:32 pm
The horse race numbers are mildly interesting and yea, they are better than other numbers I’ve seen for her. Of course I have no idea whether this pollster is legit. A couple things to note:

1) Is this the “entire poll?” Never seen a real poll with no crosstabs, no methodology, IVR/cell/live calls? No idea. And a 400 sample size, while legit, is still very small.

2) Crime. Notwithstanding the above question, the issue of crime is blazing red. A few months ago the Mayor spoke to CityClub. It was a stunning address filled with how unbelievably awesome things were going in the City. Never mentioned crime. Not even once. What this “poll” tells her is that the Ostrich routine ain’t gonna cut it when it comes to the most important issue in people’s minds. And btw, if someone asked me, I would have also cited crime as the most important issue confronting our City.

Comment by New Day Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 1:42 pm
=I read Sweet’s article about the poll. It seems quite apparent what the poll’s purpose was.=

Annnd? Please don’t keep us in suspense. What was the poll’s purpose?

Comment by Colin O'Scopy Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 2:05 pm
This shows Lightfoot’s path. There will be a runoff, but her best shot seems to be against Wilson in the head to head. Garcia might win in a romp. Head-to-Head, King, Vallas, Buckner and Sawyer would give her a run for her money. This huge field does help her though.

Comment by levivotedforjudy Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 2:09 pm
Chuy has the most upside, but winning Mayor of Chicago can be a career ender

Comment by Walker Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 2:42 pm
Colin, can you read the Lynn Sweet article? If you can, read it & write three key points that the poll informed you about and decide the purpose of the poll. Take care.

Comment by Chris in ChiTown Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 2:48 pm
Chuy will never run but loves the attention. If he ran and won, all the shine would rub off in a month. This is one of the hardest jobs on the planet and right now he gets to travel and give speeches, which his one of the best jobs on the planet. As Walker said, this would be a career ender.

Comment by Shytown Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 3:40 pm
===Maybe this poll will at least do a public service and keep Pat Quinn out. Dude, you’re behind Vallas.===

lol. But how will we make the will of the people the law of the land?

Comment by Boone's is Back Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 4:19 pm
To the post…

Gotta say, Chuy for Mayor … Chuy can be a Kingmaker, sure, but being an actual King leaves less for Chuy to find safety away from pointed criticism to policy.

A textbook example of the movement from political “silent hand” to “political target of criticism”

We’ll see

The job of Mayor of Chicago isn’t as much fun as it was in the 90s (it wasn’t fun back then either, but… )

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 4:44 pm
25% is not good for an incumbent mayor. Garcia is fairly popular in Chicago, especially with union voters. His progressive streak would be a hinderance with some blue collar & first responder voters. It would be interesting to see who the police & firefighters would support if it came down to Lightfoot vs Garcia.

Comment by AFSCME Steward Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 6:22 pm
What has Chuy done on behalf of Chicagoans that would encourage anyone to vote for him? What policy issues except helping Latinos get elected? Please don’t drag out supporting Harold Washington- that was simply the right vote then- but now, Chuy?

Comment by Why Chuy Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 8:59 pm
==What has Chuy done on behalf of Chicagoans==

What have any of the other candidates done for Chicagoans? The same question could be posed to all candidates, including the incumbent. Chuy’s record is the last thing people attack when you can attack when you have electeds who barely have 1 term in office being considered front runners. Please

Comment by Wardster Monday, Sep 19, 22 @ 9:11 pm