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PPP poll has Pritzker ahead by 15 points, and Duckworth up by 14

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Illinois
Polls

* High numbers for a third party candidate generally means that voters are looking for an alternative to the two main candidates. Here’s Tina Sfondeles and Dave McKinney…

In the governor’s race, the poll found Pritzker leading Bailey 49% to 34%, with Libertarian Scott Schluter boasting 8% — with 9% of those polled still undecided. When it comes to offering their opinions of the candidates, 46% of those surveyed held favorable views of Pritzker, 46% unfavorable and 9% were unsure. […]

Pritzker and Bailey were tied among downstate voters with 40% each, while Pritzker was leading the downstate farmer in Chicago 78% to 12%. The spreads were closer in suburban Cook and the collar counties, but the Democratic governor still held the edge. […]

The poll also found U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth leading her Republican opponent, Kathy Salvi, 50% to 36%, with 5% supporting Libertarian Bill Redpath and another 9% undecided.

* Some methodology…

The poll of 770 likely general election voters, conducted by Public Policy Polling, was taken on October 10 and 11 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5%. Of those polled, 38% said they were Democrats, 32% said they were Republicans and 30% were independents. The geographic breakdown was 35% downstate, 26% collar counties, 20% Chicago and 19% in suburban Cook County.

Click here for more. They haven’t yet posted toplines or crosstabs.

Bruce Rauner got 15 percent of Chicago’s vote in 2018, and 21 percent in 2014, so some slippage for Bailey. The big surprise there is Downstate. That’s the second media poll in a row showing some surprising Downstate strength for Pritzker. Wish we had suburban numbers, though.

And if the Libertarians manage to get major party ballot status with a big showing this year, that’ll be one more of many hurdles for the Illinois GOP.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:42 am

Comments

This poll has Bailey doing better in Suburban Cook than downstate.

Not likely to be the case on Election Day

Comment by Lucky Pierre Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:48 am
Looks like a test of what the base level of support for the GOP is in each region and statewide.

Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:50 am
Libertarians (like the ACLU) are more Conservative than Republicans or Bailey.

Comment by Jerry Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:54 am
Wonder if Mom is giving any more money to Darren? /s

Comment by Highland IL Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:54 am
Those are some nasty high unfavorables for both major gov candidates. I don’t think the Libertarians will pull double digits, but it it was going to happen, this looks like the race.

Comment by The Ford Lawyer Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:55 am
“Some 37% of downstate voters polled viewed Pritzker favorably — that’s higher than Bailey’s downstate favorability numbers.”

That is not really all that surprising. Only the hardcore adherents to the Republican Brand really dig what the guy says. He doesn’t connect well with normal folks. And even when he does speak to “kitchen table” issues, nobody understands his word salad.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:55 am
GOP, probably: “Well, at least the counties with no one in them love us.”

Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:57 am
In addition to likely getting nearly all of Benjamin Winderweedle (aka Kash Jackson) voters from last year, I wonder if a strong contingent of McCann voters from 4 years ago are going Libertarian this year?

Comment by AcademicUnionStateEmployee Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 9:59 am
Pritzker has helped downstate with infrastructure, education investment, proper/adequate state funding, etc. Downstate was deliberately harmed by his predecessor and the party who backed him, until he broke enough of them with pain inflicted upon their districts.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:05 am
===Not likely to be the case on Election Day===

Likely true.

You in your own comments for multiple years told that there are more Trump supporters and support out there.

Who knows, Pritzker’s own downstate numbers could outperform expectations, Bailey’s Trumpkin folks in the suburbs could outperform too.

To the post,

I think 8% for the libertarian seems a bit high, the 46-46 favorable/unfavorable seems on point given where Proft and such have made the negatives be for Pritzker, but still can’t get Protzker under water… and Bailey, himself, has a huge hole being under water as he is.

You need to show me…

1) Bailey can get above water

2) Pritzker gets under water

3) Bailey over 20% in the city, and winning, not competitive, in the collars.

Otherwise, now it’s a spread race.

Three big asks to get me to look at Bailey as a strong challenge

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:07 am
Surprised the Greens didn’t try to tap into the third-party desire this year and mount their own effort in the statewides this year, perhaps among the die-hard Greens (such as Rich Whitney) or the disgruntled Biss voters from the 2018 primary.

Comment by AcademicUnionStateEmployee Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:09 am
== or the disgruntled Biss voters from the 2018 primary==

Not many of those out there. JB has really impressed progressive Dems.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:16 am
Given Bailey’s unfavorable ratings it looks like Pritzker has done a very good job at defining Bailey negatively.

Comment by Demoralized Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:19 am
Well if signs mean anything the Pritzker might get 2 votes south of Springfield…

Comment by Nieva Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:22 am
== it looks like Pritzker has done a very good job at defining Bailey negatively==

That’s kind of like shooting fish in a barrel. All one has to do is play the tape of all the nonsense he has spouted over the past few years. Bailey is just so out of step with what most of Illinois wants. No spinning is needed.

Comment by Henry Francis Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:29 am
Interesting that this poll tracks with the WGN poll in the Gov’s race (JB up 15 points in both) but it shows voters are considerably more concerned about crime that the WGN poll did. Not sure what to make of that. Maybe another two weeks of GOP attacks have moved the needle a bit?

Regardless, it is having no effect on the governor’s race. Even if voters are concerned about crime, not nearly enough of them blame JB for it. Or maybe they dislike Bailey so much it just doesn’t matter.

Comment by Roman Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:29 am
===or the disgruntled Biss voters from the 2018 primary===

Stop treating governor’s races like presidential contests. It’s a very different dynamic. People aren’t nearly as invested at that level.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:38 am
**This poll has Bailey doing better in Suburban Cook than downstate.**

Uh, no LP, that isn’t true. From the CST story:

“Pritzker and Bailey were tied among downstate voters with 40% each, while Pritzker was leading the downstate farmer in Chicago 78% to 12%. The spreads were closer in suburban Cook and the collar counties, but the Democratic governor still held the edge.”

It does have Bailey’s approval ratings slightly higher in the suburbs though, but that’s a different question.

Comment by JoeMaddon Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:41 am
Top concerns of those polled according to the article: Jobs and economy (29%); crime and public safety (22%); election integrity (12%); abortion (11%); climate change and environment (9%).

After being told for months by Democrats that crime and public safety is not an issue, and the economy is nothing to worry about, this poll seems to tell a different story. A breakout by regions would be helpful to review here.

It will be interesting to see the cross tabs. In the meantime Pritzker’s unpopular rating is an eye opener. I would have thought his popularity would be above 50% and his unpopularity a lot lower. Bailey’s numbers are as I expected.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:42 am
I think the Green Party has been seriously harmed by its association with Jill Stein. If it wants a future, it needs to make sure it reminds people that it isn’t fully of tankies and Russia-coddlers.

Comment by cermak_rd Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:45 am
===After being told for months===

That’s inherently untrue. Posts and comments here were to the intensity and heightening of “crime”, then the fallout of such a strategy used by Irvin that won Irvin a 3rd place showing.

Your discussion to policy and issues, looking at economy, crime, and also looking at election integrity and abortion, in order, what does it say that Bailey is, according to this poll is solidly behind Pritzker, by double digits, even with Proft pushin in crime as he is?

Bailey will need folks like you to win, - Louis G Atsaves -, will you be supporting Bailey?

Here’s why I’m asking, you keep this thing where “Dems are wrong about”, well, what are they wrong about if you aren’t even supporting Bailey because of his crime stances?

The goal is to win races, not feel a party wins the day on a polling policy even if losers don’t make polices, winners make policy.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:50 am
===or the disgruntled Biss voters from the 2018 primary===

I was one of those, but am firmly behind Pritzker now (and am not alone). While he certainly isn’t perfect and has of course disappointed me in more than a few ways, he performed better than I expected, so I don’t expect you’ll find too many of those “disgruntled Biss voters” out there these days.

Comment by skutt Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:50 am
Only small bit, I get nowhere with polls about what is the “most important” issue. I think any campaign manager worth his / her salt knows the issue you run on is the issue that is #1 to persuadable voters, what your polling suggests can flip some of them into your column. That’s often not going to be the #1 issue overall.

I’d assumed Bailey and Proft’s polling had crime as the #1 persuadable issue, as it seems to have flipped voters and helped tighten other Republicans across the country. I think the bigger problem though is Bailey’s got his own strong negatives to flip some of the same voters right back to JB.

Comment by ZC Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:14 am
I see Louis took a hit of copium this morning.

Comment by Arsenal Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:16 am
Biss voters were issues voters who believed in their underdog candidate. Naive? Maybe. Quixotic? Maybe. Hopeless optimists? Of course. But, disgruntled or not, there is zero chance that they will be voting for anybody but Pritzker. They are not cynical people.

Comment by Bears Fan Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:18 am
@Oswego Willy, I certainly did not expect a 46% unpopular rating statewide. Let me know who you are supporting at this point in time. Or as a good friend of mine opines about this race: which extremist are you voting for?

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:29 am
Or adding to my last comment: which extremist are you voting against?

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:30 am
I think a made a comment about this race after Baily got the nomination. I think I said the race would be judged on whether Bailey lost by more or less than 15% which was the Rauner differential.

Comment by Steve Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:38 am
Many people think crime and the economy are top issues. Some just don’t support Republican policies of keeping institutional racism, unlimited guns, criminalization of marijuana, anti-unionism for workers and massive tax cuts that benefit the wealthiest the most, etc.

Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:42 am
Also: JB has probably done more in concrete terms for Downstate voters since … I don’t know, maybe George Ryan’s infrastructure plan? and I wouldn’t be shocked if some of them have noticed. Maybe (admittedly spitballing) some also remember how Bruce Rainer ran on a just-elect-me, I’ll wave my hands and everything will be fiscally great, and then it was Downstate that really took it on the chin.

Comment by ZC Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:44 am
Grandson- you forgot the anti-choice for women policy… Otherwise agree muchly

Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:56 am
I find the libertarian number interesting. So, the Steve Bannon type doesn’t think Bailey goes far enough. Hmmm.

Comment by levivotedforjudy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:57 am
===I certainly did not expect a 46% unpopular rating statewide. Let me know who you are supporting at this point in time.===

- Louis G Atsaves -

Are you supporting Bailey.

I’m not. Said it dozens and dozens of times.

How hard is it to say you support Bailey?

Do you?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:59 am
“…which extremist are you voting for?”
“…which extremist are you voting against?”

I think what you are missing is: from the middle, as I have been my entire life, Bailey is an extremist, Pritzker is not.

Comment by Proud Sucker Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:29 pm
JB has spent a ton of time downstate. His budgets have reflected concern for the whole state and not just Chicago and he has highlighted his support for the Cairo port so often even the Daily Herald wrote an editorial about it. So yea, maybe that has penetrated or at least taken the wind out of the sails of the angry anti-Pritzker folks.

Comment by New Day Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:53 pm
“Well if signs mean anything the Pritzker might get 2 votes south of Springfield…”

Just like trying to judge an electorate off of the loudest Twitter voices, they don’t.

Comment by New Day Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:54 pm
Educated young Women are the most extreme force in our society…for good.

Comment by Dotnonymous Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:17 pm
=which extremist=

There is only one extremist running for governor.

Only one is against free speech, free exercise of religion, wants to ban books, wants unlimited incarceration.

We all know who that is, even you do.

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:32 pm
It is an interesting tell that - Louis G Atsaves - must equate “extreme” where that equation doesn’t exist with Bailey and Pritzker…

… reminiscent of folks who try to find reasons to support insurrection apologists, as an example, and try to equate anything to the insurrection.

It’s an odd flex, for sure.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:36 pm
I voted Biss and it’s clear that I would be insane to vote for anyone besides Pritzker next month.

Comment by The Velvet Frog Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:47 pm
The fact that not a single comment has mentioned the senate race is a commentary on the race in itself.

Comment by The Velvet Frog Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:48 pm
@Velvet Frog

I’m surprised the Senate race is closer than the Governor’s race. Even a lot of my Republican friends like, or at least admire, Duckworth for her military service.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:59 pm
JS Mill @ 1:32 pm +1

Comment by Norseman Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 2:11 pm