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PPP: Mendoza up by 14; Giannoulias up by 11; Raoul up by 9; Frerichs up by 8

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Illinois
Polls

In the open race to succeed retiring Secretary of State Jesse White, former Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias leads Republican state Rep. Dan Brady 43% to 32%, with Libertarian Jon Stewart poised to play the role of spoiler with 8%. […]

In the race to become the state’s chief legal officer, first-term Democratic Attorney General Kwame Raoul is ahead of Republican Thomas G. DeVore by a 44% to 35% spread. Libertarian Daniel K. Robin drew support from 8% of those polled. […]

In other statewide races, second-term Democratic state Comptroller Susana Mendoza holds a 46% to 32% lead over Republican Shannon L. Teresi. Libertarian Deirdre McCloskey trails far behind at 7%. Undecideds total 15%.

And in the race for state treasurer, two-term Democratic incumbent Michael W. Frerichs has a 43% to 35% lead over state Rep. Tom Demmer, R-Dixon, who also is a member of Durkin’s House GOP leadership team and a five-term House member. Libertarian Preston Nelson has 6%, with another 16% undecided.

* Methodology…

Public Policy Polling surveyed 770 likely voters in Illinois on Monday and Tuesday. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Half of the surveys were conducted via telephone, while the other half were conducted via text message.

No crosstabs yet.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 10:46 am

Comments

If Alexi wins does he keep Jesse’s top staff on board such as Benigno and Co? Or do they likely retire, move on and Alexi hires his own people?

Comment by Curious Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:00 am
To the post,

At petition time, my thoughts to the GOP were the following;

Go after SoS, (jobs, political base camp, a needed statewide win) and Treasurer (an incumbent candidate wants to discuss taxing retirement income where the economy might be unfavorable for the incumbent White House party…) and try to get out of super minority status in the GA. The congressional races are always iffy to a newer map (not yet realized) and Duckworth was likely not vulnerable.

Why this setup?

Between Griffin and Uihlein, no one watched the ball while egos led the charge. So much so, Griffin left Illinois (he was going to leave, but I digress) and was frustrated with Uihlein’s support of Bailey, in a race likely to be held by Pritzker anyway.

I look at this poll and see so many lost opportunities to SoS and Treasurer, both Raunerites I won’t miss in state government, but both able enough with enough cash to make noise to win, but left hung out to dry… broke, no infrastructure, no chance.

Durkin? Loses the likes of Batinick, Bourne, Brady… Demmer… let alone other retirements, where is that coalition *for* Durkin? The hanging out of Durkin and the HGOP as constituted is likely making Proft giddy, a win by tearing down the GOP again… maybe.

McConchie? The joke around *here* is the Senate is the forgotten chamber, well, imagine being the forgotten caucus in the forgotten chamber. We’ll see if McConchie gets out of the teens, stays in the high teens… or even keeps his own seat.

It’s a disaster, the Dems are poised to do their business, headwind notwithstanding.

The opportunities missed, “wasted talent” is what this polls shows me.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:02 am
An organized, focus, big-tent GOP who can speak to local issues wins one of these races in another universe. They have none of those qualities and thus will lose all three offices and even more down the ticket.

Comment by DuPage Dad Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:11 am
It’s so disappointing to see Alexi doing so well…. Are people really dying for a younger, more aesthetic George Ryan? To the Libertarians, I highly doubt 8% on election day. Cut that in half. Third party candidates seem to live up to their poll numbers.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:20 am
Ducky,
I think that’s just the downside to wrecking your party is that candidates start with -x% and if they can’t make that up by even being better they can be beat by a fair or even poor candidate from another party.
The libertarians might surprise this year. Darren is a particularly unappealing candidate to anyone who is not a specific variety of Christian, his facebook page is a piñata of pro-Christian, anti-everythingelseism commentary. A fair number of the non-religious are conservatives. They might choose libertarian for that reason.

Comment by cermak_rd Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:38 am
From what I can tell, there is no GOP big tent anymore. It is all based on adoration of the former guy. Anyone who says otherwise is run out of town.

Darren Bailey’s margin of victory in the primary shows that he is the Illinois GOP now.

Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 11:48 am
I am know political genus but I would be concerned about not being closer to 50%. I am guessing the undecided don’t break for the Dems.

Comment by Sir Henry Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:03 pm
If Jon Stewart loses is he going to go back to hosting The Daily Show (since Trevor is leaving).

Woops, wrong JS.

Comment by Jerry Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:04 pm
I am surprised Giannoulias is doing as well as he is. I would have thought he was one of the weaker candidates on the statewide Democratic slate (and Brady the strongest on the GOP slate, by virtue of not being a weird consipracy theorist). But I guess not.

Comment by Benjamin Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:09 pm
Brady’s not being a weird conspiracy theorist is likely tamping down his GOP support. That’s the only way I can rationalize his polling even worse than Devore against an opponent inferior to Devore’s.

Comment by Independent Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:37 pm
“I look at this poll and see so many lost opportunities to SoS and Treasurer…”

Absolutely agree. These were lost opportunities and the GOP, for reasons known only to them, are essentially giving our bench guys a free pass. They’re handing these offices to the Dems.

Also, Demmer has got to be kicking himself for agreeing to step down the ticket to run for Treasurer. He could maybe have run a vigorous campaign again Alexi and had a shot. Instead he’s going to lose to Frerichs and be out. The great young hope of the GOP, political career gone at the ripe old age of 35.

If there’s a more feckless political party than the IL GOP, I’ve never seen it. Total fail.

Comment by New Day Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:40 pm
ILDems, nothing left to do but Smile, Smile Smile.

Comment by Kayak Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:47 pm
–That’s the only way I can rationalize his polling–

I’m sure it’s not a huge number, but people in the state with a long memory are going to have a hard time ever electing an (R-Dixon) to be the state *treasurer*. No matter how much better he may be than another candidate.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:58 pm
Surprised to see DeVore within single digits (barely) in the AG race; if he consolidates some of the third party vote could this end up closer than expected for Raoul?

Comment by lollinois Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 12:58 pm
@Independent - whoops. You were talking about Brady, not Demmer. My mistake.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:02 pm
== The libertarians might surprise this year. Darren is a particularly unappealing candidate to anyone who is not a specific variety of Christian, his facebook page is a piñata of pro-Christian, anti-everythingelseism commentary. A fair number of the non-religious are conservatives. They might choose libertarian for that reason. ==

I’ve been wondering if the conditions exist in this election that will allow the Libertarian ticket to pull off what the Greens did in 2006 and become an established Major Party in the state, and I think maybe they do. Blago in 2006 was enough of a dumpster fire that I know many people voted for Whitney then, myself included.

Bailey’s undesirables could very well drive the Libertarian candidate for governor over the 5% mark. I don’t know anything about Scott Schluter but I doubt his negatives are as bad as Kash Jackson was in 2018 (and certainly not as bad as Kash Jackson is in 2022.)

Comment by Leap Day William Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 1:32 pm
Devore is the curious part here. He’s as bad as Bailey.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 2:09 pm
Looks like a clean sweep for Democrats for statewide office. Maybe the (R) behind the candidate’s name is detrimental to their election chances, regardless of whether they’re not representing the back dung crazy side of the party. The Republicans are done in this state.

Comment by PublicServant Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 3:05 pm
=== I am guessing===

Don’t guess.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 3:11 pm
My big takeaway is that the ceiling for Republicans in Illinois appears to be around 35%.

Dems do better or worse depending on how much money they have spent so far, but Republicans are tapping out at 35% right now.

There is reason to be hopeful I guess if you are one of these statewides that you might reach the 40% Trump got in 2020, but that does not seem to be the GOP plan.

Instead, Proft is spending money to try to suppress Black turnout. I don’t know how he thinks he’ll suppress enough Black voters to make up a 20 point gap, but whatever!

The rest of the ticket should have seen the writing on the wall and split from Bailey back in July. Maybe they figured there was no way to do that without facing a Conservative backlash.

But this is really a race now to position yourself as the future of the GOP, and that isn’t about winning, but not being the biggest loser. Proft and Uhlein lose if Bailey can’t do better than the 38 percent Rauner posted in 2018, and it is even worse for them if they cannot outperform Durkin protege Tom Demmer.

Proft needs to find a way to help Bailey without helping Demmer, and his current strategy, if successful, won’t do that.

Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Oct 14, 22 @ 4:13 pm
The amount of support for Libertarians is interesting. I would like to know if those claiming support for them would normally support Republicans, but either don’t like the particular candidates, or just don’t feel that the party represents them any more.

Comment by Techie Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 10:00 am