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A deeper dive into the Sun-Times poll

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Polls

* I just now saw this on Twitter, but a few days ago Dave McKinney at WBEZ took a deeper look at that new PPP poll conducted with the Sun-Times. Check it out…

As reported, Pritzker is doing well in Chicago and suburban Cook, is narrowly ahead in the collars and playing Bailey to a draw downstate. It’s Chicago: 78-12% Pritzker; suburban Cook: 47-36% Pritzker; collars: 43-40% Pritzker; and downstate: a 40-40% tie.

Given how red Illinois’ political map is south of I-80, there was a broad feeling Bailey would do well downstate - like ahead by double-digits there. But this snapshot of where things stand is bad news for Bailey. One GOP source said: “He’s basically a south of I-64 candidate.”

On the other hand, Pritzker’s collar county numbers — 43% — are under his 2018 performance, when he got 48% of the votes cast in DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties to help beat Republican Bruce Rauner. In that election, Pritzker won those counties except for McHenry.

There’s also a longstanding rule of thumb when it comes to Chicago for statewide GOP hopefuls. At least 20% of the vote is needed to win. Bailey’s 12% won’t cut it. In the last 20 years, the only Republican to win the governorship was Rauner. In 2014, he got 21% of the city vote.

For reference, here’s the Chicago vote percentage that the losing GOP gubernatorial candidates got in the other four cycles since 2002. Rauner in 2018: 15%; Bill Brady in 2010: 17%; Judy Baar Topinka in 2006: 16%; and Jim Ryan in 2002: 19%. Bailey is underperforming all of them.

Bailey’s city numbers per the poll make one wonder whether there’s fallout from his frequent “hellhole” references for Chicago and whether his tough-on-crime talk is truly moving any voters here despite the surges in car-jackings and armed robberies.

By race, Pritzker is up in all categories: Hispanic/Latino 49-43% Pritzker, white 41-40% Pritzker, African-American 85-4% Pritzker and other 59-18% Pritzker.

Same is true with gender. Pritzker is ahead of Bailey with women 55-30%, which is one of the largest gaps I remember seeing in Illinois and no doubt attributable in large part to where both candidates are on the issue of abortion. Among men, Pritzker is ahead of Bailey 44-38%.

By party, the numbers are interesting and perhaps reflective of Bailey’s struggles to get the GOP to unify around him after the primary. Among Republican voters, 73% support Bailey, compared to 12% for Pritzker. By contrast, Pritzker is ahead of Bailey with Dem voters 91-3%.

Something a bit hard to interpret involves where 2020 Trump and Biden voters land in the 2022 governor’s race. Pritzker has 86% of Biden voters, but Bailey has 77% of Trump voters. Why that Trump support isn’t higher, given how Bailey has courted Trump, is a bit of a curveball.

By education, Pritzker leads Bailey in most categories. High school diploma or less: 41-38% Pritzker; some college but didn’t finish: 50-35% Pritzker; 2-yr college degree: 44-37% Bailey; 4-yr college degree: 58-27% Pritzker; post-graduate degree: Pritzker 63-23%. […]

One closing thought before shutting down tonight. The down-ballot statewide races are regarded as generic ballot barometers. So let’s look at the attorney general’s race. Incumbent Democrat, Kwame Raoul, is up over Republican 44-35% statewide. But Devore is leading Raoul in the collar counties 43-41%, essentially a dead heat. Why does that matter? Because the collar counties are ground zero for the two contested state Supreme Court seats. Republicans need to take both seats to gain control of the court for the first time since 1969.

The data in this poll is one snapshot, and it could be off. But if the Raoul-DeVore collar county numbers are reflective of reality, it’s even more reason to keep an eye on those Supreme Court races. They could be competitive.

Just a note of caution that small data subsets have very high margins of error. Still, it obviously ain’t all unicorns and rainbows for the Democrats here.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:03 pm

Comments

==“He’s basically a south of I-64 candidate.”==
Not to quibble, but I would say south of I-70, excluding the Metro East.

Comment by Vote Quimby Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:16 pm
Pretty good analysis by McKinney. I agree with the notion that the “hell hole” talk is driving Bailey’s numbers down within the city limits and probably helping to rally black voters behind JB given the not-so-subtle nature of Bailey’s attacks. But maybe it’s helping Bailey in the collars? A reason for some concern for Dem legislative and Supreme Court candidates.

Comment by Roman Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:16 pm
As context for my Chicago friends, I-64 approaches St. Louis from the southeast.

Comment by Socially DIstant Watcher Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:21 pm
I find it hard to believe that Raoul is behind DeVore in collar counties and if Pritzker is under preforming his last run in the collar counties what does it portend for Casten , Foster and Underwood

Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:23 pm
===hard to believe that Raoul is behind DeVore in collar counties===

They have done zero to define DeVore.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:29 pm
McKinney’s tweets had me. It was such good stuff to read the breakdown and look at the poll deeper and not the superficial. It is another reason you should read, listen and check out the Twitter of McKinney.

To the post,

In an overall, counting on abortion as the stop gap, an issue where a solid majority is against a generic GOP *candidate* choice (in a likelihood thought to Dem messaging), the thought is… if voters are going in with a head of steam on crime and the economy… they might feel different when reminded about abortion, so there seems to be a soft Dem support in polling, it’s not like, with Raoul to Pritzker the numbers hold to both.

There’s a falling feel, the GOP here, if they can find room… it’s seen in where DeVore and Raoul differ, which likely isn’t at all good for Dems. It’s a staving off as it reads to me.

That 7 point or so drop from Pritzker to Raoul is likely the fatigue of that one note (abortion) rebuttal. The Dems will need a large effort, starting with early voting, which seems to be lagging(?), till election day and that’s really up to these congressional races and legislative races on the Dem side to show up, as the slide is seen.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:32 pm
“They have done zero…”

Pretty much. It’s inexplicable. Don’t take anything for granted. Geez.

Comment by New Day Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:34 pm
BTW, I love Dave, but one quibble. an 11 point lead in the suburbs is not what I would characterize as a “narrowly ahead.”

Comment by New Day Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:37 pm
===but one quibble. an 11 point lead in the suburbs===

No.

Read it again. He said Pritzker is doing well in suburban Cook, which is where that 11-point lead is.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:39 pm
= 2-yr college degree: 44-37% Bailey; =

This is odd, compared to all other education levels.

Comment by JoanP Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:40 pm
=== - JoanP - Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:40 pm

= 2-yr college degree: 44-37% Bailey; =

This is odd===

Think trades, downstate, blue collar with some college.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:42 pm
===This is odd===

It’s like, what, maybe 70 respondents out of 700? Again, try not to obsess over the smaller samples.

https://ibhestrategicplan.ibhe.org/SP_Data_Analysis.html

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:46 pm
The somewhat small 49-43 advantage for Pritzker with Hispanic/Latino voters is really interesting. It says something about the potential future of the Republican Party if a candidate like Bailey can pull that high of a response in the Latino community. If ILGOP isn’t incompetent…think of the potential shift

Comment by Lakefront Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 4:55 pm
Came here to point out JB’s Latino problem too. That’s a byproduct of making his campaign solely about abortion (while running up the score with women). Latino voters, regardless of views, consistently prioritize the economy more than white voters.

Comment by Torco Sign Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:11 pm
= 2-yr college degree: 44-37% Bailey; =

nurses.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 5:21 pm
I’d say Bailey is doing well south of Illinois 13. He has no plans, just complaints. Appeals to the angry (old, white) voters.

Comment by Sir Reel Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 6:13 pm
It will be interesting to see the “autopsy” after the election to compare polling numbers to the actual results from the ballot boxes.

Rich, historically, who are the most reliable pollsters? It just seems there are so many variables this election cycle…

Comment by Northwest Illinois Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 7:46 pm
The Lord help us if Bailey is doing better with nurses.

Comment by The Velvet Frog Monday, Oct 17, 22 @ 8:46 pm
The issue with AG may be crime/bail-but the issue with Supreme Court is choice-I don’t think there is a correlation between DeVore leading slightly in collar counties and Rs picking up that support on the Court.

Comment by Just a guy Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 8:59 am
–In the last 20 years, the only Republican to win the governorship was Rauner. In 2014, he got 21% of the city vote–

Rauner paid some folk to NOT work precincts for Quinn.

Comment by Insert Ken Dunkin here Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:07 pm
===Rauner paid some folk to NOT work precincts for Quinn. ===

That’s how it’s been done there for decades.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 18, 22 @ 12:35 pm