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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
House Speaker Chris Welch reported raising a whopping $14 million in the third quarter, with almost half of that, $6 million, coming from Gov. J.B. Pritzker. That gives Welch a huge cash advantage for the home stretch over his Republican counterpart.
Welch’s personal campaign committee reported raising $7 million between July 1 and Sept. 30, and reported having $11.6 million cash on hand at the end.
Welch’s caucus committee, Democrats for the Illinois House, also reported raising $7 million in the same time period, with $6 million of that coming from Pritzker. The committee ended the quarter with about $5.8 million in the bank after spending $6.4 million.
From Oct. 1 through Oct. 21, Welch reported raising another $1.5 million for his personal committee and about $500,000 for his caucus committee, giving him a total of $19.4 million to spend in the final five weeks or so of the campaign if he cleans out the accounts. Welch earlier transferred close to $10 million from his personal committee to his caucus committee. So, his available cash for the final push is likely up to $16 million, but could be more if the need arises.
Senate President Don Harmon reported raising $4.9 million during the third quarter for his personal committee and ended with $13 million in the bank.
Harmon’s caucus committee, ISDF, raised about $9 million, with $7 million of that coming from Harmon’s personal committee and another $1 million from Pritzker. It ended the quarter with $4 million after transferring out $4.5 million to members and spending $1.9 million on polling, media production, etc. plus some overhead.
Harmon has reported raising another $1.8 million from Oct. 1-21 for his personal committee and $6.1 million for his caucus committee, with $1 million from Pritzker and $5 million transferred from Harmon’s personal committee. So, he’s sitting on a total of $19.9 million, plus another million or so in his other accounts.
As expected, Republican fundraising could not even come close to keeping pace with the Democrats. House Republican Leader Jim Durkin’s personal committee reported raising $820,000 in the third quarter, just 12% of Welch’s haul. Durkin ended the quarter with $319,000, after spending $1.8 million, including sending $300,000 to his caucus committee, House Republican Majority. He’s since reported raising $1.4 million through Oct. 21.
House Republican Majority reported raising about $1.4 million in the third quarter, plus Durkin’s $300,000. It spent $1.6 million and ended the quarter with $220,000. It has since reported raising $1.6 million through Oct. 21, but $850,000 of that came from Durkin’s personal committee.
All told, that left Durkin with about $2.5 million to spend in the final five weeks — about 16% of Welch’s grand total.
Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie reported raising $2.7 million in the third quarter, with about $2.2 million of that coming from Richard Uihlein. He reported spending $3.1 million, with $2.9 million going to his caucus committee, Senate Republican Victory Fund. He ended the third quarter with $1.2 million cash on hand and has since reported raising $870,000.
The Senate Republican Victory Fund reported raising about $400,000 in the quarter, plus the $2.9 million transferred in by McConchie. It spent $3.3 million, and ended the quarter with $296,000. It has since reported raising $1.3 million, with $1 million of that coming from McConchie’s personal campaign.
Total it up, and it appears that McConchie has about $2.6 million to spend on the final five weeks — about 12% of what Harmon has.
Legislative caucuses, the governor and other candidates all qualify for a major postage discount by using their respective state parties to handle their mailing operations. So, looking at party spending gives us an idea of what’s happening on the mailer front.
After shedding leadership that couldn’t legally raise or spend state campaign funds, the Democratic Party of Illinois reported bringing in $8.3 million in the third quarter and ended with $5.8 million. It has since reported bringing in $4.3 million, giving it $10.1 million in available mailer spending during the final weeks.
The Illinois Republican Party raised $2.2 million, spent $1.5 million and ended with $1.1 million cash on hand. The ILGOP has since reported bringing in $3 million, giving it $4.1 million for the home stretch — much less than half what DPI had.
The Democrats have zero excuses for failure.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 8:35 am
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I guess it depends on what “failure” would be here, but I’m not sure I follow the logic. A big spending advantage can absolutely affect elections, but it’s not the only thing that can. Everyone at the state level has limited ability to affect national politics, demographic trends, and the economy.
Campaign spending can blunt some of those effects, but it’s not a 1-to-1 shorthand for political advantage. No amount of Democratic mailers or TV ads will bring back the people who moved out of Metro East, just as no amount of Republican campaign spending will reverse the diversification of the suburbs. And JB Pritzker could spend himself down to poverty and not make a dent in polarization trends.
There aren’t that many persuadable voters left in the country, so the marginal utility of a spending advantage isn’t what it used to be. Whether it’s an “excuse” or not, national and historical political trends are real and much stronger than state-level campaign spending.
Comment by vern Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 8:57 am
If it’s an upset and the caucuses under-perform, expectations, it will be because Team Pritzker waited too long to counter the attacks regarding the SAFE-T Act, and then when they did finally respond, had no clear, discernible message that Democrats and allies could echo. Failure to adapt to a changing environment can be fatal.
If Democratic caucuses succeed, it will be largely thanks to the steady hand of Caprara on the tiller sticking with the plan hatched a year ago.
Either way, success or defeat for the party as a whole, it’s on her.
The best bet is somewhere in the middle.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 9:04 am
=== Either way, success or defeat for the party as a whole, it’s on her.===
I promise you, the results of a general election are not solely attributable to one bill, much less one staffer.
Comment by vern Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 9:12 am
====== Either way, success or defeat for the party as a whole, it’s on her.===
Truly a horrible take, as it’s likely the statewide will all stay blue, and neither of the ILGA chambers are flipping.
The measure of success will be staving off the incoming red surge that about a month ago seemed more muted but now there’s a fatigue that seems to be going on, and with that fatigue will there be, as early voting begins, an uptick in a measurable existence of the GOP being able to find pockets of isolated wins with a great deal of things (money, organization) lacking.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 9:20 am
I agree with vern. It’s not just about the money, although that certainly helps. This is a midterm year under a Democratic president, and although turnout will be higher than it was in 2010 and 2014 and the coalitions look a little different, I think Democrats are still at a disadvantage. The President’s approval numbers are down, gas prices have gone back up a bit, inflation remains a problem, and Democrats continue to be poor communicators of their message. Sure, the anti-Trump effect in the suburbs and the Dobbs decision helps Democrats a bit but they’re still the ones with a disadvantage this year.
Comment by The Real Downstate Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 9:47 am
Don’t blame the messenger blame the failed progressive policies out of step with reasonable and moderate voters
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 9:52 am
===out of step with reasonable and moderate voters===
Like you? lol
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 10:01 am
===the failed progressive policies out of step with reasonable and moderate voters===
I will get to my own comment to this great read and post, but some comments…
If Dems sweep all the statewides, hold both chambers, how can one say it’s failed to the measure of holding serve to where the GOP is continually irrelevant, and further, that sentence is an indictment on the GOP as constructed if that is true, and the GOP in Illinois is still in the outside looking in.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 10:03 am
=== If Democratic caucuses succeed, it will be largely thanks to the steady hand of Caprara on the tiller sticking with the plan hatched a year ago.
Either way, success or defeat for the party as a whole, it’s on her. ===
In a year with a ridiculous number of whack jobs running, this take might be the most idiotic take on the election to date. You really have no idea what the heck you’re talking about. The GOP tried and failed for a decade to make every cycle about one man - Madigan. Now you’re saying this cycle is all about one woman - Caprara. That’s insane.
Plus, JB may be giving cash to the caucuses, but his people have zero to no influence on the caucuses political operations.
Comment by thoughts Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 10:14 am
I understand and agree with the idea that Democrats in Illinois have won the cash battle, and that alone means they should be very successful.
However, I have been wondering for a couple weeks how trends at the national level might sneak up and surprise Illinois politics.
Latinos in Florida are supporting DeSantis over Crist. Indeed, Latinos in Texas may be swinging toward conservative candidates. Has this larger national trend any implications for politics in Illinois?
Also, there seems to be a national trend in which the economy is dominating people’s perspectives on politics today. In Illinois, will we see some significant proportion of white suburban and Black suburban voters shifting toward conservative candidates in the suburban districts?
Just curious. But Illinois is the fourth largest state in the Union, so national trends surely must incorporate the sentiments of Illinoisans.
Comment by H-W Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 10:21 am
I agree that there’s a pretty wide range of what could be considered “failure”. I have some individual seats I’m rooting for but if the democrats get the statewide offices and keep both chambers it would be hard to see that as a failure. But time will tell.
Comment by The Velvet Frog Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 10:44 am
Anyone who watched football over the weekend saw several Dem State Rep and State Senate ads so both caucses are obviously spending money.
Pat Joyce’s ad was the only one I can recall that mentioned crime. The suburban Dem reps should talk about it more imo.
Comment by low level Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 11:18 am
“Democrats have zero excuses for failure” is a pretty tough. Money is not the only x-factor in an election, we all know that. It’s not terribly uncommon for an opponent who has been outspent to win.
My opinion is that the old adage of “All politics are local” is now largely incorrect. I think that the national party trends, largely propelled more by media narrative than performance, have a much larger impact than say a 200k difference between candidate spending.
Comment by Commissar Gritty Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 12:04 pm
Cash and the Bailey drag are big boosts for Dems here to be sure, but the national mood is not — that would be their only excuse. The recent batch of US Senate polls show the trend is clearly moving the GOP’s way.
The last two mid-terms with a first-term Dem in the White House (1994 and 2010) were really bad for Dem general assembly members. It won’t be nearly as bad this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they lose a few seats, particularly the downstate senate districts.
Comment by TR Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 12:18 pm
Good wake up call on the amount of money that is being raised and spent in the campaigns. Unfortunately IMHO it is more evidence of Illinois government being up for sale.
I was in many campaigns were we were outspent by lot of money and still won handily.
Of course, times have changed, but a lot of money is spent and wasted routinely on political consultants. The Proft Ads are a great example of wasted money.
Liked the comments by Commissar Gritty about national party trends trends being important.
Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 12:32 pm
So much money spent for a few 100k a year jobs.
Comment by 44 Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 12:55 pm
Am I understanding correctly that Dan Proft has raised more money than the House, Senate, and IL GOP combined?
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 1:04 pm
===So much money spent for a few 100k a year jobs.
===
Leading a government that is the 5th largest American economy is what they are vying for, if you see it only in terms of a job, this blog might be a bit much for you.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 1:06 pm
==Dan Proft has raised more money==
You mean Dick Uhelin has given more. Dont give Florida Dan that much credit
Comment by low level Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 1:11 pm
Ok, to the post,
Rich, love the breakdowns because when it does come to excuses Dems will have very few if any.
For me?
To this post, for me, this cycle has been about waiting for Roe, if it got overturned (it did), and the staving… the staving off the red wave.
The reality is, midterms, the party in power takes a shellacking. Facts. You have a handful of staving midterms but it’s always bad for the party in power.
Dems in Illinois, new maps, new leaders still finding their own footing but with *ridiculous* monetary advantages, where McConchie and Durkin are really out of their depths in trying to compete.
I think there is real fatigue with abortion, as the GOP try pushing the economy with the 7 nickels they have. Crime isn’t moving needles according to some statewide races like US Senate or Governor, but can that red wave find footing in the districts of the GA Members.
I’m not feeling or seeing the apparatus usually seen by Dems, frankly early voting seems to be missing it’s mark with organized GOTV early voting ground games… in play.
Did abortion and election integrity peak too early and did economy finally take its place in the driver seat?
It’s not about trouncing, it’s about staving off surges.
It’s up to Welch and Harmon to utilize every tool these 14 days to maximize the plus voters in an off year like I’ve never seen. Ever.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 1:17 pm
The most recent data I have seen from Opensecrets is that Duckworth has raised $19.9 million and Salvi had not yet quite reached the $1 million mark.
Comment by notafraid Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 1:19 pm
- Dont give Florida Dan that much credit -
Certainly not, it’s just astonishing how lazy the IL GOP apparently is.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 1:45 pm
Governors own. This Governor took over the party.
Biden’s job approval is at 50% in Illinois. If Democrats underperform, you can’t blame Biden.
I will say the same is true on the other side of the ledger. The fate of the GOP caucuses is largely in Proft’s hands. A good legislative race should outperform the Governor, but it is tough to outperform by more than a couple of points. If JB is at 45-48 in these suburban districts he will be in that spot in a lot of them, and it will be because of the SAFE-T act response.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 2:03 pm
On the flip side: Bailey being downstate is probably a good sign for JB. If Bailey thought he could win the suburbs, he would probably be in the suburbs.
Twitter is not reality, and it is important to remember that angry tweets from the suburbs are not a poll.
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 2:07 pm
===This Governor took over the party.===
… and yet if you read what Rich wrote, and the other monies both Welch and Harmon raised.
This post and the writings of Rich here discuss the resources available to Dems versus where Durkin and McConchie sit… resources wise.
The apparatuses of the HDems and SDems aren’t (seemingly) in concert with the statewide, we’re seeing a mail indica use that is familiar to the past.
What do you base this on?
===If JB is at 45-48 in these suburban districts he will be in that spot in a lot of them===
… is Bailey beating Pritzker in, say, DuPage?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 2:11 pm
===Bailey being downstate is probably a good sign for JB. If Bailey thought he could win the suburbs, he would probably be in the suburbs.===
Agree, to a point, as I don’t see in these closing days a real GOTV type of vision from the Bailey Crew in movements or apparatus, but Bailey says he has 2500 or so poll watchers, which you’d think would be better used in GOTV… but I’m not part of how they are running that Bailey Railroad.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 2:14 pm
= as the GOP try pushing the economy with the 7 nickels they have =
That’s a winner.
Comment by H-W Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 2:50 pm
Welch and the HDems have an appearance of a cash advantage. However, Ra will pick up 8 to 10 seats because we are using dark money through several independent expenditure committees to attack Dems. Rs will do very well.
Comment by HGOP Insider Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 5:11 pm
=== will pick up 8 to 10 seats because we are using dark money through several independent expenditure committees to attack Dems. Rs will do very well.===
LOL
Better hurry up.
Where are these attacks, and where’s the GOTV to take advantage of these attacks?
I know, don’t feed the trolls, but this was worse than Facebook driveby silly, it made me laugh
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 5:17 pm
Looks like your whole trend line is anti JB taday. Great.
Comment by sal-says Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 5:23 pm
===Looks like your whole trend line is anti JB ===
Victims everywhere, it seems.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 24, 22 @ 5:25 pm