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Morning campaign stuff

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Illinois

* A quick roundup to start your day…

Illinois governor race: Where JB Pritzker, Darren Bailey stand on immigration, guns, crime

* How the abortion ruling transformed midterm political advertising: In terms of spending on abortion-related ads, Democrats ($21.7 million) and Republicans ($20.9 million) had near-parity in the pre-Dobbs period. Post-Dobbs, Democrats’ spending on abortion-related ads surged (to $57.9 million) while Republicans’ spending on abortion-related ads plunged (to $5.7 million).

* Gov. Pritzker, Democratic 17th Congressional District candidate Eric Sorensen advocate for abortion right: Standing in the Rock Island County Democratic Headquarters in downtown Rock Island on Tuesday, Pritzker said Illinois has “worked tirelessly” over the past few years to further protect a woman’s right to choose and that he endorses Sorensen for Congress, saying he will work to further protect those rights.

* Rashid, Schultz spar at 21st District candidate forum: The candidates also had different views about banning the sale of automatic weapons. Schultz said he would consider such a ban as a last resort but said that prohibitions usually don’t work, and the more immediate problem is a shortage of police. […]“The issue in Highland Park on July 4 was not ‘not enough police.’ The issue in Uvalde, Texas, was not ‘not enough police,’ the issue at Sandy Hook was not ‘not enough police.’ The issue is guns getting in the hands of the wrong people and we absolutely do need to ban assault rifles,” Rashid said.

* State House District 62 candidates spar over guns, criminal justice and abortion rights: Though Dias and Shores are far apart on the SAFE-T Act, their views on a woman’s right to decide to terminate a pregnancy are closer together, though not aligned. Shores said he opposes late-term abortion and would reinstate parental notification for women under 18. “Personal health care decisions are unique to every woman, and they should be between the woman and her doctor,” Shores said, though he would still require parental notification and a late-term ban if he could.

* More to come!

posted by Isabel Miller
Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 8:38 am

Comments

“In terms of spending on abortion-related ads, Democrats ($21.7 million) and Republicans ($20.9 million) had near-parity in the pre-Dobbs period. Post-Dobbs, Democrats’ spending on abortion-related ads surged (to $57.9 million) while Republicans’ spending on abortion-related ads plunged (to $5.7 million).”

Can’t prove that a woman’s right to abortion is THE winning issue for Democrats, but the GOP certainly seems to think that it is.

– MrJM

Comment by MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:06 am
“distinctions matter. I would expect my legislators to know the difference so that they can cogently argue for the gun laws they think are necessary.”

Agreed, but after reading that article, I don’t think that it’s at all clear that the confusion regarding “automatic weapons” was introduced by either of the candidates, rather than by the hosts of the forum or the author of the article.

For instance, in one of the only quotes regarding the matter, Mr. Rashid referred to “assault rifles” not “automatic weapons.”

– MrJM

Comment by MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:17 am
== Can’t prove that a woman’s right to abortion is THE winning issue for Democrats, but the GOP certainly seems to think that it is. ==

More like the Democrats *believe* it is THEIR winning issue.

Just like the GOP believes crime is one of their winning issues.

On the abortion issue, I know women on both sides of it. And while I agree some of the GOP are too far right with their zero exceptions, I think both sides were already pretty well entrenched in their positions. It will be interesting to see if the pollsters can determine after the fact if all the spending by the Democrats made a significant difference. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that personally I don’t think the ads will have moved many people.

Comment by RNUG Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:17 am
“I’m going to go out on a limb and say that personally I don’t think the ads will have moved many people.”

I don’t believe that either side is trying to change anyone’s mind about the issue of abortion.

The Dems’ goal is to get the people who already agree with them about a woman’s right to bodily autonomy to vote in this election.

GOTV not persuasion.

– MrJM

Comment by MisterJayEm Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:22 am
The abortion issue, in measure, could gin up more turnout than crime as an issue for the GOP?

I agree, it’s not the swaying of votes, that’s the baked in part of abortion, it’s the turnout *of* those votes that makes the difference.

That’s why pointing to Kansas and abortion is a foolish comparison, even in “real time, next day” comparisons.

It’s the turnout and plurality to the turnout that makes the argument.

Will more people believe they need to vote because of the already held position *they* have on abortion?

The muted GOP position on abortion, (not hearing any cheering by the GOP, but many saying they aren’t extreme, but I digress), the GOP would like, all the same, folks feeling abortion is “settled”, at least in Illinois, and no need to vote against the pro-lifers, now hiding in plain sight

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:25 am
Why is - MisterJayEm - the gold standard to the pithy, Golden Horseshoe winner?

===The Dems’ goal is to get the people who already agree with them about a woman’s right to bodily autonomy to vote in this election.

GOTV not persuasion.===

Pithy. Perfect.

Persuasion time is “way over”… it’s time to gin up your pluses.

Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 9:26 am
The latest you can get an abortion is 24-26 weeks in Illinois. A pregnancy is around 40 weeks and the third (last) trimester begins in the 27th week. “Late term abortions” is a political construct, not a medical term, and Shores (and other Republicans) are using it as a cop-out.

Thankfully Dias actually takes a clear stance on issues.

Comment by Romeo Wednesday, Oct 26, 22 @ 10:27 am