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A quick look at turnout

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Illinois

* Derrick Blakley at the Center for Illinois Politics…

“It doesn’t look like an unusually large turnout for an Illinois midterm election,” said Matt Dietrich, spokesman for the Illinois Board of Elections. “I’d estimate the statewide turnout at 50 to 51 percent.”

That’s far off the turnout for Illinois’ 2018 midterm which was 57.23 percent, the highest for a midterm election in 36 years. (In 2014, turnout was 49.18 percent; in 2010, 50.53 percent; and 2006, 48.64 percent.) Back in 1982, a whopping 65 percent of the state’s registered voters went to the polls in that year’s midterms. […]

There are 102 counties in Illinois, but the ten biggest voting jurisdictions (nine counties, plus Chicago which supervises its own elections) account for 61 percent of the state’s registered voters. Chicago’s turnout was 44.26 percent. In suburban Cook County, 43.87 percent. DuPage County turned out 55.25 percent (more on them later). But among the top ten most populous jurisdictions, the highest turnout came from the smallest locale. Sangamon County, which includes Springfield. IL, turned out 59.25 percent of its 135,336 registered voters. […]

DuPage County unofficially received 71,185 mail-in ballots, significantly more than the 2018 midterm election, but not close to 2020’s general election. In addition, 86,600 voters cast their ballots during the in-person early voting period. Of the county’s 342,399 ballots cast, 46 percent came in before election day. […]

It was too early for state election officials to break down the statewide vote by gender. But the Chicago Board of Election commissioners reported city voters at 55.21 percent female and 44.65 percent male. Female voters usually exceed male voters, but the extent of the disparity may be related to the power of the abortion issue in motivating women to get to the polls. […]

Unofficial figures from Chicago show that voters under age 44 made up 39 per cent of voters citywide. Chicago’s 1st Ward had 14,629 voters under age 44, the most of any ward in the city, which made up a whopping 73 percent of voters there.

* Related…

* The GOP did fine with Latino voters. But that wasn’t good enough: In Nevada and New Mexico, Democrats gerrymandered their Latino supporters — spreading them across numerous light-blue districts while packing GOP voters into just one seat. Republicans had hoped to win enough Latino voters to break through this gerrymander and clean up in Biden-leaning seats. They didn’t.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 9:08 am

Comments

I think part of Bailey’s strategy with the dog whistles was to suppress turnout in Chicago, which it seemed to do. He got crushed in the suburbs and DuPage though. It is something to watch out for in the future.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 9:15 am
Two words that may have helped cost the GOP a red wave: candidate quality. It’s a big deal that Democrats got a split decision nationally during an off year for them.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 9:23 am
What is it going to take for legislators to finally make Election Day a holiday? My pipe dream is to be like Australia, where it is compulsory.

Comment by Bean Counter Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 9:47 am
GOP turnout was hurt because 1) part of the party believes elections are rigged so there is no point to vote, 2) demographic changes (GOP voters moving their residence from Illinois - which ironically is partially due to the SALT cap), 3) Lack of campaign money and infrastructure

Add to that that Democrats were aggressive in drawing gerrymandered districts and you get a disappointing day for the GOP

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 10:00 am
@Bean Counter Election day is an Illinois state holiday in even numbered years now. I this it would be a very good idea to have it be a national holiday but the truth is that I doubt it would do much to increase turnout. The people that would get that day off probably already have jobs that allow flexibility to go vote. The people that would still have to work (retail, restaurants, services, blue collar) probably wouldn’t have as much flexibility to vote and they would still likely have to work on that day.

Comment by Aaron B Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 10:04 am
@Grandson of Man: == Two words that may have helped cost the GOP a red wave: candidate quality. ==

This is who the GOP has created over the past 40 years. They (and their donor class / Fox News overlords ) have nurtured the extreme and the insane to the point where ‘normal’ (read as: just want the poor and maligned to suffer quietly while they get rich) GOP have lost control of the monster they intentionally created.

This is the GOP now in IL and nationally. Just like the “only a few bad apples” police apologists, they’ve fostered this culture for decades. It will take just as long to get out of it, if they ever can.

Comment by Homebody Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 10:14 am
Candidate Quality was huge, spending by the GOP Statewides, minimal, and outside Bailey, which of the other 4 were on Tee-Vee?

Make election day a national holiday.

Anyone feeling the need of “massive” voter suppression to win isn’t a candidacy that seeks honest pluralities anyway… nothing that this GOP ran was impressive, given that Republicans continue to be dangerous to women’s health

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 10:18 am
=== There are 102 counties in Illinois, but the ten biggest voting jurisdictions (nine counties, plus Chicago which supervises its own elections) account for 61 percent of the state’s registered voters.===

That’s 93…

Nine. Three.

That’s 93 counties equate 39% of Illinois’ registered voters.

I’ll grant anyone, the old “20% Chicago” formula might be outdated as DuPage, Lake, the GOP vote banks are not even as Red as they were a mere 5 years ago.

For the GOP to win statewide, “candidate recruitment” sure, but there’s no stronghold within the “Top 9” counties to offset?

It’s not a “Blue state” but this state isn’t buying the GOP choices as served.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 11:22 am
Roughly 3.9 million Illinois voters cast a vote in a Congressional race in their District. 2.3 million chose the Democratic candidate while 1.6 million voted for the Republican candidate, roughly a 60/40 split. However, thanks to gerrymandering by Pritzker and his Democrat allies, Republicans only won three of the State’s 17 Districts, or 17 percent of the seats.

That isn’t candidate quality or campaign spending, it’s just good old political gerrymandering.

Comment by Soapbox Derby Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 12:14 pm
=== Democrat allies===

Now do Ohio, Florida… the courts are more than comfortable with gerrymandering.

Do you think the courts got the Illinois maps wrong as they passed muster with the VRA?

Further, the GOP refuses to be competitive in minority drawn districts, ceding them to “Democrat control”, while passing muster to a map in the overall… so the GOP is a victim to their own refusal to be competitive in minority drawn districts?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 12:26 pm
Until there’s a national uniformity to gerrymandering/redistricting there will be maps where ceded districts for any of a number of reasons exists.

Think about… Iowa.

The monolithic voters in that universe versus the diversity of Illinois… is it really about “Democrat control” when maps are arguing about how fair they are to VRA requirements?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 12:30 pm
yep, turnout down. one of the first things I noticed. last gov race was, of course, a non presidential year too so it’s not about that. thought provoking.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 12:44 pm
“Think about … Iowa”.

Even a child can see Iowa’s Congressional map (drawn by a non-partisan commission) maintains contiguous and compact districts. No finger lines drawn stretching to reach favorable precincts.

By contrast, Illinois (drawn by politicians seeking the voters THEY want) has a snake like district running from East St. Louis over to Champaign. Other districts look like outstretched pretzels.

Little to do with VRA and really all about power.

Comment by Soapbox Derby Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 12:53 pm
=== Even a child can see Iowa’s…===

… monolithic voting universe, lacking the diversity of Illinois, making maps that need not worry about *any* diversity easier for children who like diversity squashed.

You failed to discuss how the courts were wrong about Illinois’ maps they approved, you also ignored “Ohio, Florida”… because “Democrat” maps irk you, like a child ignoring things they don’t like.

When there’s a universal mapping, and courts don’t allow gerrymandering.

LOL

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 1:10 pm
@Soapbox Derby -

That’s not how it works, at all.

In the primary there were 103K ballots cast to replace Bobby Rush, 119K in the 6th CD (Casten) and 133K in the Miller race bacause those were heated primaries, far more than their neighboring districts.

In the General, you have the same affect. Nine Democrats and 3 Republicans essentially running uncontested races, with only 6 (Casten), 11 (Foster), 13 (Budzinski), 14 (Underwood) and 17 (Sorenson) spending anything to significantly turn out their supporters.

You have created some crazy metric that does not measure anything that real campaigns care about. The DCCC and RNC are trying to get as many seats in the country as they can, not flood Danny Davis voters to the polls to justify map boundaries.

Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 2:02 pm
=== Nine Democrats and … essentially running uncontested races===

How many Dem seats that were unopposed were minority drawn districts?

Yep. It’s an odd metric if Republicans cede minority districts “because”

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 2:10 pm
It’s not candidate quality, it’s the extremism. Voters are smart enough to know Republicans are extreme on abortion, and it’s a position that symbolizes so much. Republicans in Illinois aren’t winning statewide or in blue-leaning areas until they change their position.

Comment by Torco Sign Monday, Nov 21, 22 @ 4:09 pm