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* NBC News almost exactly a month ago…
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s campaign laid out its strategy for what is shaping up to be an expensive runoff in Georgia for his seat on Dec. 6, projecting confidence about victory in a memo Thursday.
“Reverend Warnock will win the runoff by continuing the strategic investments in paid communication and field organizing, continuing to hold the diverse coalition that has driven Reverend Warnock’s success, and emphasizing that this race is about who is able to represent our state,” Warnock campaign manager Quentin Fulks wrote. “We are confident we will win on December 6th.”
Fulks presented a two-prong message that signals the senator will continue to campaign as he has been so far: promoting his work with lawmakers in both parties for Georgia and attacking Republican rival and former football star Herschel Walker as “completely unqualified for a job that requires knowledge of the issues and an interest in listening and learning.” […]
Turnout will, again, be a challenge for both parties. Warnock is kicking off his campaigning for the runoff Thursday afternoon with an event in Atlanta, his campaign said. Fulks wrote in his memo that prior to the Nov. 8 election, the Warnock campaign’s field operation had “ramped up” with “more than 3.4 million conversations with voters on doors and via phone.”
I thought this ad was brilliant…
* Warnock won, of course, and Gov. Pritzker congratulated him this week…
I will forever be grateful to Governor @JBPritzker for many reasons, this tweet is just the latest. Sometimes in life all you need is someone to believe in you and give you a shot - he was the first to do that for me in a real meaningful way. 🙏🏾 https://t.co/tJVAU1DaT7
— Quentin Fulks (@quentinfulks) December 7, 2022
Fulks, of course, ran Pritzker’s campaign operation after the 2018 cycle, and headed up a tough loss on the progressive income tax amendment, for which he got never-ending grief in the comment section of this blog.
* Politico’s West Wing…
Being a campaign manager for a presidential reelect is a resume line many political operatives covet.
But as the search begins for the guide of JOE BIDEN’s expected reelection bid, senior Democrats are wondering whether the president will have a tough time filling the job given the way Biden’s inner circle operates. […]
Democrats inside and outside the White House have also been looking at the class of campaign managers from the 2022 midterms. That includes … QUENTIN FULKS, a J.B. PRITZKER alum who made a name for himself as the campaign manager for Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK.
The DC newsletter Puck reported that Fulks is now in “high demand” and said the rumor mill has it that he might return to Pritzker’s campaign staff, just in case President Biden doesn’t run again.
Your thoughts on all of this?
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:23 am
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I’ll admit I was not a Fulks fan after the Fair Tax campaign but he has really shown his immense political intelligence and management skills in this campaign. Everyone who wasn’t too sure about him after 2018 like me should go read Caprara’s thread on Twitter. Excellent stuff and 100% correct. If Biden runs, his campaign would be foolish to not give him a job with them.
Comment by The Real Downstate Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:32 am
–for which he got never-ending grief in the comment section of this blog.–
You’re only as good as your last fight.
I think the criticisms were valid here for the failure of the fair-tax amendment. The opposition to it was underestimated, and then the reaction there was came too late.
But, it also looks like that mistake was learned from in a good way.
It almost always takes a failure to learn the lessons needed to move up to the next level of success. Learning quickly is what makes him right for the job.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:33 am
Congrats again to Fulks for a great campaign. Read that he said the campaign was focused or worked on getting GOP and independent voters. That’s smart because Walker was a poor candidate.
“for which he got never-ending grief in the comment section of this blog”
The criticism was very intelligent and correct. Griffin and vote no on the tax got off to a fast and strong start. Vote no on the WRA was nonexistent in TV ads this election. Was bad messaging part of that loss? What would have happened to the WRA if Griffin was here, pounding away against it with many millions of dollars?
Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:34 am
I don’t really want to take anything away from Fulks, but Raphael Warnock is an extraordinary individual. And for that matter, JB Pritzker has proven to be a talented politician, too.
To quote the greatest campaign manager of all time, Bruno Gianelli:
“It helps when you cook with the right food.”
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:36 am
A win is win so congrats
In IL he was handed a pretty poor product — “Fair Tax” (most think no tax is fair) — an extra helpers like the guy wanted talk about taxing retirement. In GA he got a minister who had already won twice, three times spending edge and an opponent who might be as big a filthy pig as Trump. Not sure two campaigns can be compared.
Comment by Annonin' Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:42 am
Staffing decisions are fun for us hoi polloi to speculate about, because it’s the closest politics gets to fantasy sports besides the quadrennial Veepstakes feeding frenzy. But at the end of the day, the difference between a pretty bad campaign and a pretty good campaign is kind of marginal.
Really good campaigns can add votes under the right circumstances, and really bad campaigns will definitely lose votes. But 90% of races are decided at the filing deadline or before. The skill of campaign staff is pretty far down the list of what affects election results. National trends, demographics, candidate quality and issue profile are all more decisive.
Most likely, Fulks isn’t to blame for the progressive tax loss and wasn’t the cause of Warnock winning. There’s know way to know which decisions were his, which were other consultants, and which were the principal. So people outside of the campaigns aren’t in a great position to evaluate his job performance.
Comment by vern Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:45 am
Here’s the truth.
Campaigns, in of themselves are not any measure of the dealings of campaign or the campaign apparatus or leadership.
You can run a truly horrendous campaign… and win.
You can run a perfect, flawless, campaign… and lose.
I grant all y’all, the likelihood of winning is helped with a better run campaign…
I think Fulks should receive all the kudos, praise, everything and anything gained by this race win. He won. That how the business goes, and I thought on the whole it was nearly as perfect as one could run that race, given every factor. Fulks is a guy you’d want to work with, that’s also a big takeaway.
But, someone missed that Walker took a Homeowners Exemption the past TWO years in Texas, making his residency… Texas?
That’s a major miss, someone dropped that ball, bigly, and that in a post-mortem needs to be seen where that failed. Whew.
Running a candidate v candidate race is always easier, FULL STOP.
There’s the reality of compare and contrast, attack and define.
That’s for *ANYONE* running these two different animals (campaigns)
All the kudos and congratulations. All of them.
You should want to work for or with Fulks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:51 am
For all the criticism Fulks, rightly deserved, for the campaign he ran for the Progressive Income Tax Amendment, he deserves all the praise now.
Comment by Almost the Weekend Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:53 am
=== for which he got never-ending grief in the comment section of this blog.===
I would be disingenuous in my above comment if I ignore this.
I know I gave him an exorbitant amount of grief, in real time of the campaign, and after. I did that too, 100%
That was *that* race.
This race, far different animal too, was different.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 9:54 am
Winning two races against highly flawed candidates (Rauner & Walker) with way more money on your side in both cases while also losing the fair tax issue does not make one a genius.
His candidates won so congratulations and parlay that into whatever future success. Good luck. He will do well in the future because he is sharp, has learned from these campaigns and has had wins but this record does not make him a genius.
Comment by Fan Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:06 am
I thought Warnock had some of the most effective messaging and marketing in recent memory. All of his ads made sense, were targeted towards people who would need to be campaigned towards, and got people excited about his candidacy.
Comment by DuPage Dad Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:17 am
==Running a candidate v candidate race is always easier, FULL STOP.==
This is the thought that came to my mind before looking at the comments. Having a person is very different from having an “idea” as your candidate. The latter seems to be so much trickier. “Workers Rights” is a much easier sell than anything with “tax” in the title.
I’m glad Fulks landed on his feet and was able to show his worth in Georgia; I expect he has a bright future (especially if he has learned to avoid taking on “tax” as a candidate).
Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:20 am
== But, someone missed that Walker took a Homeowners Exemption the past TWO years in Texas, making his residency… Texas? ==
Or the campaign knew about it the whole time, polled on it and found that people didn’t care and didn’t believe a legal challenge would work so held it it until the runoff when everything was thrown out there because why not.
No idea if this is true but it’s just as plausible an explanation and shows that unless you’re on the inside and high up in a campaign then you can only speculate about the true story.
Comment by uialum Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:25 am
=== Or the campaign knew about it the whole time, polled on it and found that people didn’t care and didn’t believe a legal challenge would work so held it it until the runoff when everything was thrown out there because why not.===
You make legal roadblocks for Walker to fight for the residency,
I mean, it’s almost malpractice that you don’t make Walker have to fight this in a court.
The millions in legal fees alone woulda tied that campaign up.
Also, if they say in it only to have it drop as it did, it gives the impression of something missed. Not great.
=== you can only speculate about the true story===
Had Walker won and looking how Fetterman went after Oz, it’s a reality type of post-mortem, can’t have yourselves look out of the loop on something like that.
They handled it brilliantly, just ignoring it, “spilled milk”, back to what they were doing.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:33 am
First, agree with The Real Downstate that everyone should go read Caprara’s tweet thread about this. (I’d link it but not sure how in the comments.). And frankly kudos to her for figuring out how to work in the “you ain’t nobody nobody sent” politics of Illinois while ignoring the chattering class on talent and people and building success for Pritzker as a result.
Second, I never thought the Fair Tax criticism of Fulks was fair. Of course when any campaign loses it means mistakes were made. But that campaign was always going to be an uphill battle if the opposition was well funded - all the negative side had to say was “they want to raise your taxes” and repeat that endlessly. Pro side had to thread a much much more delicate needle that I’m not sure is possible to thread with well funded opposition.
I’m glad to see Fulks star rising. And it wasn’t just the commenters on this thread who had a lot to say about Fulks. If I remember correctly, it was quite a few people working for one particular sitting Senator who, despite a lack of battle testing themselves, always seemed to have an opinion about everyone else. So I’m especially glad to see Fulks prove them wrong.
Comment by Illinois Nerd Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:35 am
== Or the campaign knew about it the whole time, polled on it and found that people didn’t care ==
Carpetbagging charges are pretty nuanced. I’m not sure you really could convince many people that *Hershel Walker* was insufficiently connected to the state of Georgia.
Comment by Arsenal Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:43 am
=== you really could convince many people that *Hershel Walker* was insufficiently connected to the state of Georgia.===
You tie the guy up in two courts in two states… you may or may not need to win it, they may have wanted Walker all along (looking at Candidate Quality, how could Warnock not want Walker) but you can’t let it slide, even Rahm had to produce a dress, lol
Is it tax evasion in Texas or a Texas resident running in GA?
Fulks ran an exceptional campaign where in the end it didn’t matter, but…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:51 am
===But, someone missed that Walker took a Homeowners Exemption the past TWO years in Texas, making his residency… Texas?===
They dropped that oppo on him in November.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 10:58 am
=== They dropped that oppo on him in November.===
It is what it is then.
They won, they made campaign decisions…
There’s New York and Hillary and Bobby, then there’s Pennsylvania and Oz… the campaign Walker had was a mess, gumming up the works wasn’t the choice.
Fulks (Warnock) won, that’s the measure.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 11:03 am
The performance of Fulks during the Fair Tax campaign was abysmal. If you were unfortunate enough to hear any of his presentations, you needed an extra dose of caffeine to even make it through.
Warnock’s victory is enormous so regardless of Fulks’s true impact or deficiencies, he’s earned some credit for the victory. Kudos to him..
Comment by Dem Unity Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 11:14 am
Well… I suppose if I’m going to dump all over Quentin for his previous mishap, then I have to praise him for his success. It was a well run campaign. Though I am still surprised how close the margin of victory was. The amount of people that chose a known domestic abuser over a Baptist preacher is shocking.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 11:19 am
===Though I am still surprised how close the margin of victory was===
It’s Georgia. Warnock won the runoff by 3 points. The Republican governor and other GOP statewides won their races by by 5-9 points.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 11:32 am
===for which he got never-ending grief in the comment section of this blog.===
On this issue I will be consistent. A politico can learn from failure and I hope Fulks did.
Running a campaign with a candidate is very different from running a campaign for a constitutional amendment. Warnock has reported $175 million in fund raising so far and had national attention and national support.
As we assess Mr. Fulks’ contribution to the race an important question should be whether or not we think Senator Warnock would have won re-election without him. A partisan campaign is a team sport. A lot of people on the team contributed and when the team wins we don’t spend a lot of time questioning the campaign manager’s value.
===he might return to Pritzker’s campaign staff, just in case President Biden doesn’t run again.===
If Pritzker runs for president he won’t be the first billionaire to lose a primary. Pritzker’s success in a Democratic Primary for the nomination to President of the United States of America has more to do with how much of his governing so far weighs him down.
The best staff in the world won’t be able to overcome the current conditions of many of the state agencies and how it is impacting the people the Governor serves regardless of whose fault it is or how long it has been a problem.
And I have no doubt Governor Pritzker could recruit the best staff money could buy.
Governors own. Mr. Fulks won’t change that.
Comment by Candy Dogood Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 12:16 pm
=== The best staff in the world won’t be able to overcome the current conditions of many of the state agencies and how it is impacting the people the Governor serves regardless of whose fault it is or how long it has been a problem.===
The love of Pete, Bill Clinton was governor of Arkansas…
Arkansas, a “bottom 10 state”, if you will, in education, health care, in many ways far less working to governing.
Illinois still has its largest city as a location folks want to move companies, a city most desired to visit…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 12:29 pm
“he might return to Pritzker’s campaign staff, just in case President Biden doesn’t run again.”
Ironically, the Fulks/Warnock win in Georgia makes it even more likely that Biden will run again.
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 1:14 pm
2 things can be true at once. He ran a poor campaign for the Fair Tax. He ran 2 good campaigns in GA.
Perhaps he’s better at framing candidates versus framing singular issues?
For those unable to believe the Senate race was so close…it wasn’t. Georgia is a red state. It’s not a blue state. It’s not purple. It’s red. The GOP owns the house, the senate, the majority of the congressional districts, and every single state wide office except the 2 senate races.
Georgia is clearly not, however, a Trump state. Warnock won obviously a majority of Dems and a majority of independents yet that wasn’t enough to breach 50% in the general. Why? Because Georgia is a red state.
And yet, Warnock won by 3 points because GOP voters crossed over and voted for the Reverend. And yes, Walker looks like a terrible candidate with Illinois goggles. Try to imagine what it would look like if Walter Peyton ran against Dick Durbin as a Republican. That’s how important Walker was for GA for a long time.
But maybe Kirby Smart and Stetson Bennett IV winning a chip last year diminished Walker’s importance. (Snark)
Comment by MG85 Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 1:20 pm
===makes it even more likely that Biden will run again.===
I’d concur.
What this type of win does for Fulks, for his career, is pretty simple and a heck of a story:
“… then, after that he goes to Illinois. Fulks does well, and loses a statewide constitutional amendment referendum. While still with the Pritzker campaign, he gets chosen, to go home to his home state to run the most visible incumbent race in America. In that race, Fulks endured two elections, and in winning the runoff, it secured an actual majority for Senate Democrats”
Fulks went home, won, not an easy race but arguably the hardest Democratic incumbent race in America… he now gets to go all Pete “Maverick” Mitchell and choose his own duty next cycle.
Politics is a strangely weird business where …the so much you can’t control… is controlled… by what you can control.
I typed that correctly.
Kudos to Fulks.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 1:21 pm
This is an outstanding point, better than I’ve framed it, for sure;
Editing for its own sake…
===Georgia is a red state. It’s not a blue state. It’s not purple. It’s red. The GOP owns the house, the senate, the majority of the congressional districts, and every single state wide office except the 2 senate races.
Georgia is clearly not, however, a Trump state===
The sweet spot found and exploited by Fulks allowed the window of a Trump candidate to be defeated by making that distinction the race… and Walker’s abysmal character too.
Credit is due, good point to it.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 1:26 pm
==Griffin and vote no on the tax got off to a fast and strong start.==
Fulks had a $56.5 million lead and 8 month head start before Griffin spent dollar one.
Comment by City Zen Friday, Dec 9, 22 @ 1:42 pm