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Isabel’s morning roundup

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* Here you go…

posted by Isabel Miller
Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 7:46 am

Comments

  1. I know politically every politician almost needs to give back any money they got from SBF, but is there actually a legal argument? It seems weird to me that a company can just demand donations back. I’d like to be able to call “take backsies” when I run into a rough time.

    Anyway, thanks for the roundup.

    Comment by Perrid Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 7:59 am

  2. Is there any way to solve the pension problem with graduated tax rates? Assuming we lobbied and tried to pass it again?

    Comment by Bothanspied Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 8:01 am

  3. Is there anything more Illinois than the cannabis license fiasco? Probably, but still…

    Comment by rtov Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 8:18 am

  4. Since I’m sure Isabel won’t toot her own horn, I’d like to note that Eric Zorn had a nice shout-out to her in his Picayune-Sentinel.

    “Another daily local/state news aggregator to check out is Isabel Miller, who writes regular, link-intensive briefings at her uncle Rich Miller’s Capitol Fax blog.”

    Comment by JoanP Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 8:43 am

  5. Perrid,
    I know if someone (even a vendor) received money from a company that enters bankruptcy within 6 months that can be considered a preferential payment under section 547, maybe they’re using that? In that case, the bankruptcy law does allow clawbacks.

    It’s to keep a bankrupt firm from paying it’s favorite debtors before bankruptcy.

    Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 8:44 am

  6. == The state now is on a “ramp” ==

    We are almost at the top of the ramp now. Yes, there are some balloon payments right at the end in 2045. If inflation and normal revenue growth (plus mortality) won’t let the State accommodate the needed payments, I expect the State will go to the anticipated Plan B when the ramp was set up: resetting the last part of the ramp to a lower / longer slope.

    Comment by RNUG Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 8:52 am

  7. == Is there any way to solve the pension problem with graduated tax rates? ==

    Anything is possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. EVEN if you did manage to pass such a tax, the compromises necessary to pass it (likely more school funding / property tax relief) would siphon off a significant portion of any increased revenues. And 50+ years of history,including the implemention of the State income tax set to generate excess revenues and subsequent rate hike, tells us the Legislature won’t be able to restrain from additional spending on new or expanded programs. Realistically / politically, we are probably going to have to just live with what we have and run out the ramp, or eventually do a reset on the ramp.

    Comment by RNUG Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 9:00 am

  8. =We are almost at the top of the ramp now.=

    Something else not considered is the impact of Tier 2 on the annual cost of the pensions. The annual payments (not the legacy debt payments) continues a very rapid decline. I have to look it up, but my latest newsletter from TRS stated that Tier 2 is now something like 40% of active employees. In only 10 years. That is saving the state a ton, even with adjustments to stay in good standing with safe harbor.

    Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 9:22 am

  9. =We are almost at the top of the ramp now.=

    The CST Editorial Board wrongly compares the required 2045 payment of $18 billion to this year’s $50 billion budget. By 2045 the budget could well be $100 billion after 22 years of 3% growth making the problem not look quite so bad.

    Comment by mch Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 9:50 am

  10. @JS Mill A bit of a modification to your remarks; the annual payments are (if nothing else happens) expected to stay in line with inflation, meaning that they aren’t expected to take up a higher percentage of total state revenues in future years. Unfortunately, the benefits from Tier Two are already baked into the cake as far as the payment schedule goes. Absent some miracle funding increase or liability decrease, things shouldn’t get significantly better/worse in regards to pension payments.

    One thing to keep in mind about all this, though, is that the mandated payment is not same as the actuarially recommended payment. We are paying what we committed to paying, but actuarially, we are paying less than we should to cover total liabilities. To be fair, absent a “black swan” event, it shouldn’t make a difference for pension payments or checks sent out to annuitants.

    Comment by Former ILSIP Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 9:53 am

  11. ===wrongly compares the required 2045 payment of $18 billion to this year’s $50 billion budget===

    Also, there’s no way the state will make that full payment. Either they’ll pay it down ahead of time or stretch it out.

    Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 9:56 am

  12. “pay it down ahead of time or stretch it out.”

    Maybe both.

    Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 10:04 am

  13. With underfunding by taxpayers through their elected representatives, historically underperforming investment markets by Pension Fund Trustees and underfunded contributions by employees, it is probably an overall good thing Governor Quinn pushed the Tier 2 idea.
    Hopefully things will come together in a way that benefits employees in the long run.
    The idea that we should honor contractual obligations to state employees should binding on all of us. Not only is it the proper thing to do it is also the law in Illinois.

    Comment by Back to the Future Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 10:07 am

  14. “Get down, boy.” The video is disturbing. Twitter is talking. If it is true that Vallas deleted texts that have links, why if you think this is a fine shoot?

    Comment by Amalia Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 10:19 am

  15. =things shouldn’t get significantly better/worse in regards to pension payments.=

    If this was true, then the annual cost wouldn’t be DOWN over $500 million, and that cost will continue to go down as Tier 1 employees move to retirement or die. Tier 2 costs are covered by schools and employees not the state.

    =historically underperforming investment markets by Pension Fund Trustees and underfunded contributions by employees=

    I can only speak to TRS. Over 30 years TRS investments have performed at or above the industry markets.

    You statement about employee underfunding for TRS and an absolute falsehood. Schools and employees automatically send the required payments to TRS every single pay period. We are audited every year by TRS, we have made our full payments for the last 100 years.

    Tier 2 is a good thing so long as you don’t want schools properly staffed.

    Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 10:22 am

  16. == statement about employee underfunding … ==

    Let’s be perfectly clear here. The employee portion of the pension payment, whether made by the employee or sometimes by the school, has always been paid into the pension fund. The shortages, when they occurred, were always on the employer side … regardless of which of the 5 systems we are talking about.

    Comment by RNUG Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 10:38 am

  17. Employees have certain benefits and the amount that is taken out of their checks was insufficient to cover the benefits. Simple math.
    Everyone in the process was to some degree at fault.
    In terms of performance, didn’t Crain’s have a story on performance review done by a well respected disinterred party showing that performance did not beat markets?
    Some taxpayers point to high benefits and increasing costs and Employees point the finger at taxpayer representatives not taxing enough to pay the benefits that were agreed to.
    You don’t get to be the worse funded public employee pension systems in the country without all parties involved being to some degree at fault.
    At least Gov. Quinn came up with something to try to fix the finding issue. Decades of pointing fingers at each other really accomplished nothing.

    Comment by Back to the Future Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 10:53 am

  18. “why if you think this is a fine shoot?”

    Fine, who is saying fine? The word you are looking for is justified. Loss of life is always a terrible outcome, the Tribune has some details not found in the Tiibe article…

    “Police said the officers had been searching for him because he was wanted on warrants for felony possession of a firearm and parole violation, according to the newspaper report.
    Johnson fled and the officers chased him into a creek, with one cop caught on video shouting, “Get down, boy,” according to the newspaper and a video that included bodycam footage released by the San Antonio Police Department. Police said they saw a gun in his hand and shouted, “Drop your hands.” Johnson stumbled and briefly faced police, who shouted, “He’s got a gun,” according to the newspaper. All three cops opened fired, according to the newspaper. Video from the scene afterward shows a gun besides Johnson’s body, and San Antonio police said the gun found at the scene was forensically linked to multiple violent crimes.”

    Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 11:00 am

  19. I do agree Tier 2 may affect staffing or the quality of candidates that are drawn to our educational system.
    Lot’s seem to be going wrong in the Chicago system (where I live) as well as other educational systems in terms of test scores.
    Perhaps we can agree we have overall the worse funded public pension funds in America as well as some pretty poor outcomes for children.

    Comment by Back yo the Future Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 11:04 am

  20. == we have overall the worse funded public pension funds in America as well as some pretty poor outcomes for children. ==

    And some of the highest amount of administration / related cost in the school systems.

    Comment by RNUG Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 11:11 am

  21. Brandon Johnson should research his talking points regarding free college tuition at City Colleges.

    There are two programs which provide free college tuition, transportation, and fees: Partners in Education for CHA residents and those with a voucher and the Star Scholars program for students with a B average (established in 2015).

    Many CPS and charter school graduates are not eligible for college level class work as their test scores fall below the requirements.

    Also, there are no IEPs or 504 plans in college. Once a student graduates from high school, the Individuals with Disabilities Act (IDEA) no longer applies once a student graduates from high school.

    Comment by Rudy’s teeth Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 11:15 am

  22. @Donnie Elgin, agree that some details were not in the Triibe….so close to Trib….article. and whether the police hit the bike seems a question. but the video of that shooting feels very different than most that I’ve seen and for which I feel police were justified. scrambling down and up a small creek, slipping in the grass, the gun turn barely perceptible and then shooting at him 9-10 times and the body twitching. terrible. his mother describes it as being shot like a hog.

    Comment by Amalia Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 11:29 am

  23. Rudy’s Teeth,
    Does Partners in Education consider section 8 users CHA residents? I think that’s more common now among poorer folk than CHA.
    I consider Jr Colleges to be an important step up for people who don’t have the scores to go to 4 year college. Also Jr Colleges are sometimes more amenable to accomodations of disabilities. Not IEPs but at least accomodations like assistive technology and coaching.

    Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 11:56 am

  24. =And some of the highest amount of administration / related cost in the school systems.=

    5% is high? That is what schools average on Admin costs. And that includes office staff liek admin assistants as well as benefits.

    Compare that to the private sector. Last I read, the average was in the area of 15%. Admin body counts in public ed are low.

    I cannot speak to CHS, but outside of that, admin costs are actually low compared to private sector costs.

    Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 12:08 pm

  25. To Cermak Road …
    During the semester, students in E101 are required to write a paper with an introduction, thesis statement, body paragraphs, a rebuttal, and conclusion.

    Within the paper are cited references from sources. References are direct quotations, indirect quotations, and paraphrased material.

    Online resources are available and depending on the topic, use APA or MLA format for structure. Then, References or a Works Cited page concludes the paper.

    Tutors are available to guide students and to provide support but students must complete the project independently. If students struggle with academic skills, the work can be daunting.

    Comment by Rudy’s teeth Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 12:45 pm

  26. “And some of the highest amount of administration related cost in the school systems”

    Most definitely true. IL has 1,052 districts, compared to a similar population state of PA with 784 districts. Each district has its own superintendent/admin staff and pension costs.

    https://nces.ed.gov/pubs2018/2018052/tables/table_02.asp

    Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 12:59 pm

  27. “Employees have certain benefits and the amount that is taken out of their checks was insufficient to cover the benefits. Simple math.”

    No. Pay and benefits were negotiated in
    a legally binding agreement. Employees have often forgone raises in order to keep the benefits near or at where they are. A contract was signed by both parties laying out who paid what. One side has always paid everything they were supposed to pay. The other side did not. That fact is not the employees’ fault.

    Comment by DHS Drone Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 1:49 pm

  28. This killing illustrates just how far America has moved from Slavery…and slave catcher mentality.

    Comment by Dotnonymous Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 2:41 pm

  29. =Most definitely true. IL has 1,052 districts, compared to a similar population state of PA with 784 districts. Each district has its own superintendent/admin staff and pension costs.=

    Well, not really. Many districts are starting to share a superintendents.

    The link does not include costs or admin number or costs. The student/teacher ratio in Illinois is .3 lower than the national average. That tells me that the number of people is just average compared to everyone else and completely undermines your point.

    Self own.

    And of course the 5% avg admin costs in schools versus the 15% average in the private sector.

    Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Feb 9, 23 @ 3:54 pm

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