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* Another day, another poll. From Latino Victory…
With less than two weeks left until Election Day, the Center for the Study of Diversity and Democracy (CSDD) at Northwestern University and a coalition of Black and Latino nonprofits released a nonpartisan poll showing common ground among Black and Latino voters in the Chicago mayoral race. Results from the survey showcase the need for candidates to address safety, cost of living and jobs, among other priority issues for Chicagoans.
The poll also shows a tight race between Paul Vallas (19%), U.S. Rep. Jesús “Chuy” García (17%), Mayor Lori Lightfoot (14%) and Willie Wilson (12%). Broken down by demographics, 40% of Latino voters are leaning toward Rep. Garcia, 23% of Black voters are leaning toward Mayor Lightfoot, and 25% of white voters are leaning toward Vallas. More than 20% of voters still remain undecided.
The poll was conducted by BSP Research. Northwestern and a coalition of Black and Latino nonprofits funded and developed this poll to better understand the issues mobilizing Black and Latino Chicago voters. The coalition includes Hispanic Federation, Illinois Black Advocacy Initiative, Latino Policy Forum and Latino Victory Project.
The poll found that crime (57%), inflation/cost of living (44%), and wages/jobs (25%) dominate as the most important issues for all Chicago voters. A majority of Black (54%) and white (64%) respondents as well as a plurality of Latino voters (46%) identified crime as the most important issue. Equally important, 46% of all voters strongly support decreasing police funding and investing in addressing root causes of crime. […]
The poll also found that Chicago voters agree on an active and effective government, with overwhelming support across racial groups to:
• Create more affordable housing (56% of Latinos, 63% of Blacks, 47% of whites )
• Make childcare accessible to all parents (55% of Latinos, 57% of Blacks, 41% of whites)
• Increase the number of police on the force (48% of Latinos, 38% of Blacks, 47% of whites)
• Tax multi-million-dollar properties to help pay for services (54% of Latinos, 44% of Blacks, 39% of whites)
• Create a humane and orderly way to allow immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers to live and contribute to Chicago (88% of Latinos, 78% of Blacks, and 76% of whites)[…] In terms of commonality among racial groups to work together on issues, 85% of Latino voters and 75% of Black voters think that both communities have more in common when it comes to government and politics in Chicago. Additionally, over 70% of Black and Latino voters think Chicago would be better if Black and Latino communities work together on issues.
Finally, Latino voters show the lowest rates of being 100% certain to vote at 69%, followed by 78% of Black voters and 83% of white voters.
The poll includes 643 registered voters in Chicago who were randomly contacted by cell phone, email or through other online panels and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. The poll was in the field Feb 5-10, 2023 and available in English or Spanish. Respondents who said they were not planning to vote were excluded. Final data were weighted to match the known U.S. Census Bureau estimates for voters in Chicago.
After pressing likely voters who initially said they were undecided to pick a candidate they were leaning toward…
Vallas 23%
Garcia 16%
Lightfoot 15%
Wilson 12%
Johnson 8%
Green 5%
King 4%
Buckner 3%
Sawyer 3%Undecided 10%
By the way, President Biden was rated favorably by 74 percent of likely voters, while Gov. Pritzker was rated favorably by 71 percent.
* And some new outfit named 1983 Labs has this online poll…
Vallas 13%
Lightfoot 15%
Wilson 12%
Garcia 10%
Johnson 7%
Green 7%
King 5%
Buckner 4.5%
Sawyer 1%Write in/Other 3%
Undecided 22%
* The Get Stuff Done PAC is spending money in aldermanic races, both against progressives and for more moderate candidates. They just reported another $250,000 contribution from Michael Sacks. He’s now up to $750K.
…Adding… Greg Hinz…
A group that represents the real estate industry has quietly become a major player in this month’s Chicago aldermanic elections, spending funds in nearly a dozen races that will determine control of the City Council.
According to disclosures filed with the Illinois State Board of Elections, Illinois Realtors has spent money via an independent expenditure affiliate in at least 11 wards scattered around the city. Included are vacant seats in the Lincoln Park 43rd Ward, south lakefront 4th Ward, West Side 30th Ward and north lakefront 46th and 48th Wards, as well as embattled incumbents in the 11th, 12th, 23rd and 50th wards. […]
Illinois Realtors’ spending comes on top of donations from another group backed by business interests, the Get Stuff Done PAC. Former by allies of former Mayor Rahm Emanuel, it has reported raising about $1.5 million so far, with some spending in the same wards as the real estate group.
* Press release…
Fresh off of a series of polls showing him continuing to lead in the race for Mayor and a major endorsement from Alderman Brendan Reilly, mayoral candidate Paul Vallas is releasing a new television ad that starts running on broadcast and cable today. Titled “Great City,” the ad showcases the support Vallas is receiving from a broad, diverse coalition of Chicagoans who are backing the candidate and his vision of putting crime reduction and public safety first.
The ad is available here.
“I could not be more proud of the movement our campaign is building of Chicagoans from all different backgrounds who agree that we need a Mayor who believes that public safety is a human right, and who will deliver on the promise to make our city safer,” said Vallas. “With just two weeks remaining until Election Day our team will continue working hard to earn the support of every Chicago voter by staying focused on what matters most to them, which is making our city safer.”
The Vallas ad features genuine supporters from neighborhoods across the city including Southside, Little Village, Bridgeport, Loop/Downtown, Hyde Park, and Lakefront/Lakeview.
…Adding… Garcia campaign…
Today, Congressman Jesús “Chuy” García, candidate for Mayor of Chicago, released the following statement in response to the story regarding the cover up of the Inspector General’s report on Hilco.
“I live near the old Crawford plant – this is my neighborhood and those harmed were my friends. That Lori Lightfoot would cover up a preventable disaster is unconscionable. Her administration’s cover up, bad decision-making, and lack of accountability is emblematic of the incompetent and corrupt decision making that we have come to expect from Lori Lightfoot,” said Congressman García.
“Chicagoans have long deserved to see the Inspector General’s report but rather than being open and honest with Chicagoans, Lori Lightfoot decided to cover it up, stick by the failed leadership that was responsible, and lie to all those that were harmed by this disaster. If Lori Lightfoot is willing to cover up something of this magnitude then we know she is willing to do anything to avoid accountability.”
* Isabel’s roundup…
* Streets Blog | Blue Line blues: CTA quietly cut schedule again this month, but reliability issues persist: Scheduled Blue Line service is currently down 39 percent overall compared to the pre-pandemic schedule, with service cut by 36 percent on weekdays, 52 percent on Saturdays, and 44 percent on Sundays.
* Tribune | Mayoral candidate Paul Vallas insists he’s a lifelong Democrat. But he’s backed by conservative donors and the FOP: The encounter highlights a thorny campaign issue for Vallas: As he makes his second bid for Chicago mayor and proclaims himself a “lifelong Democrat,” he’s pivoted to run on law-and-order and other themes that have drawn support from conservatives in the city and state. While Vallas doesn’t want to lose conservative supporters — many on the Northwest and Southwest sides who could propel him past the Feb. 28 election into a runoff — he also can’t alienate the rest of the city if he wants to win on April 4.
* Sun-Times | Mayoral candidates analyze Black exodus from Chicago: “We didn’t leave. We got kicked out,” said state Rep. Kam Buckner. “We got kicked out because we didn’t have a quality of life that we deserve.”
* Block Club | Search Every Political Donation Made To Chicago Aldermanic Candidates: You can use the database to find out who’s donated to the alderpeople or challengers in your ward — as well as how much they’ve given, who else they’ve given to and how that compares to other wards across the city. Where candidates get their campaign money often reveals a lot about their connections and priorities: It pays to follow the money.
* Tribune | Lori Lightfoot takes aim at Brandon Johnson as mayoral race enters final two weeks: The mayor’s appearance highlighted a subtle shift in her campaign strategy as the candidates enter the last two weeks before the Feb. 28 election. While Lightfoot has worked to build a base of support among Black voters on the South and West sides since announcing her reelection campaign last summer, she has largely ignored Johnson and aimed her fire at business owner Willie Wilson.
* NYT | After Four Turbulent Years, Lori Lightfoot Seeks a Second Term as Chicago’s Mayor: Less than a year into her first term, though, Ms. Lightfoot, a Democrat, was hit with the Covid-19 pandemic and all its attendant crises — and she now governs a restless city that has yet to fully shake off its pandemic malaise.
* ABC Chicago | Chicago Mayoral Forum focuses on issues impacting African-American community: Monday night’s forum focused on issues impacting the African-American community. Some of the sharpest exchanges occurred between Mayor Lori Lightfoot and Brandon Johnson. “If Commissioner Johnson is not planning to impose a tax on people earning a $100,000 or more, he should say right here and right now that he will never support such a plan,” Lightfoot said.
* NBC Chicago | Here’s What Chicago Mayoral Candidates Have to Say About Ending Cash Bail: All nine candidates running for mayor of Chicago were asked about a bill passed by the Illinois General Assembly that would eliminate cash bail, a piece of legislation that is currently on hold as court challenges to the bill move their way through the court system.
* Tribune | Ghost buses, CTA budget woes, shared streets: Transportation challenges ahead for Chicago’s next mayor: The problems facing Chicago residents go far beyond long wait times for public transit and sometimes dirty train cars. Whoever becomes the city’s next mayor will contend with a CTA that is facing steep staffing shortages and a looming financial shortfall, and is struggling to address complaints about violent crime and nuisance behavior such as smokers on the “L.” There are also increasingly vocal concerns about pedestrian and cyclist safety and a steep decline in ridership.
* Block Club | Downtown Ald. Brendan Reilly Endorses Paul Vallas For Mayor: Reilly, who endorsed Mayor Lori Lightfoot in the 2019 runoff, said Vallas will “put public safety first.” Downtown Ald. Brian Hopkins has also endorsed Vallas.
* WBEZ | Mayor Lightfoot offers few details on fixing registries for sex, drug and violence crimes: The failure leaves people convicted of some crimes subject to arrest for failure to register, despite their efforts to follow the law. Advocates for survivors of sexual assault have expressed concern that the overburdened office is indicative of a department that isn’t prioritizing their safety concerns.
* Sun-Times | Incumbent City Council members in 25th, 29th Wards challenged over records on public safety: Byron Sigcho-Lopez (25th) and Chris Taliaferro (29th) aren’t keeping their constituents safe, their challengers say. The data tells a more complex story.
* Block Club | Lincoln Square Aldermanic Candidates Talk Bike Safety, Crime And Favorite Restaurants At Forum: The trio shared different strategies for addressing crime in the area, from improving communication with police, hiring more officers and finding ways to reduce reliance on cops.
* WGN | Candidates for Chicago mayor square off in hotly contested forum: Brandon Johnson was under fire as his rivals in the race for mayor turned the spotlight on him. Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot threw the first punch by raising Johnson’s “tax-the-rich economic plan,” to pay for massive new spending.
* Block Club | 30th Ward Aldermanic Candidates Talk Gentrification, Immigration At Hermosa Forum: Jessica Gutiérrez, Warren Williams and JuanPablo Prieto discussed how they would approach affordable housing, and one candidate was attacked for his past work with Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
* Sun-Times | Challengers in 8th, 9th Wards look to unseat longtime incumbents: Ald. Michelle Harris (8th) and Ald. Anthony Beale (9th) face challengers who promise revitalization and growth in their South Side wards.
* Block Club | South Side Ald. David Moore Endorses Colleague Ald. Sophia King For Mayor: Moore said Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s reluctance to work with aldermen has led to community backlash on the South Side, and he said King has a more collaborative approach.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 11:53 am
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Interesting that the Trib did not endorse three conservative incumbent alders: Napolitano, Sposato, and Gardiner.
Comment by Big Dipper Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 11:59 am
We’re still polling registered voters and not likely voters in a low-turnout election two weeks out from e-day and after mail ballots have already started to be returned?
Comment by JoeMaddon Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:01 pm
Fun driving on Touhy east of Rosemont, lots of signs for Mark Walsten, running again for Alderman? He was always a fun person to be around even if one disagreed with him.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:13 pm
=while Gov. Pritzker was rated favorably by 71 percent.=
Yeah, but he is the least popular governor in America. /s
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:15 pm
Turnout might end up high for this one, based on what the BOE is saying about mail-in ballots. Undecideds are going to decide it.
Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:19 pm
@Big Dipper, that’s interesting. Maybe the opponents in 38, 45 and 41 are highly qualified?
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:28 pm
I’m not vouching for that online poll, but the page with the chart of other publicly released polling data seems to prove my point that this race is extremely fluid.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:48 pm
It seems like in 45 they were disgusted with Gardiner’s antics and in 41 they were concerned about Napolitano’s abuse of aldermanic privilege to block affordable housing. In 38 they seemed to like the challenger (Bannon) better.
Comment by Big Dipper Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:49 pm
How is Lightfoot carrying 15% in these polls? Granted I am not very smart and spend most of my time in the basement, but where are her votes coming from?
Comment by Timzilla Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 12:59 pm
The “Awake” and anti-abortion oppo is heavy stuff in Chicago. Some campaign should start continuously hammering Vallas on it (not really seeing it now), to try to get him out of a runoff situation. Either way, it’s not good to run in Chicago and have openly promoted bigotry, having been the honored guest speaker of a hate group and saying its leader should run for governor.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 1:10 pm
I have a hard time believing there is more support for Wilson than Garcia.
Comment by Techie Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 1:15 pm
That Latino Victory polls has some weird results so while my gut and everything else I’ve seen suggests the top line is right, having a poll where 81% support more police on the streets and 65% support defunding the police and redirecting the money to root causes seems a wee bit self contradictory. Combine that with the fact that the mayor’s favorability rating is at least 15-20 points higher than any other poll I’ve seen makes me a bit suspect.
Comment by New Day Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 1:27 pm
Things I know;
If it’s accurate that 40,000 plus ballots have already been cast, and any of the 9 aren’t controlling their own pluses and getting them as part of the 40,000 plus ballots cast… or no clue who these folks are… then I know that these crews are not maximizing where early voting could/will make a difference.
Polling is not ballots, and ballots already cast are wasted opportunities unless they are your pluses
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 1:31 pm
Quote from yesterday’s Tribune: “This whole campaign is about taking back our city, pure and simple,” Vallas said.
Which raises the questions “Who is doing the taking” and “From whom is it being taken”??
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 1:54 pm
Shouldn’t Vallas be saying “their city”?
Comment by Big Dipper Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 2:02 pm
Is “taking back” the 2023 version of “before it’s too late” ?
Comment by northsider (the original) Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 2:11 pm
Taking back sure sounds like making it great again.
Comment by Big Dipper Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 2:22 pm
I’m wondering if Green will help get a younger voter turnout and if there will be a bigger than normal Black voter turnout? I have always given Wilson a solid 10% in the election, but now think it may be 12%. If it comes down to Chuy and Paul, the Black vote will determine the election.
Comment by levivotedforjudy Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 2:24 pm
The last time I checked in sheer numbers, cameras were about equal on the north and south sides. The differences had to do with type of streets. It’s more difficult to speed on a street with a lot of foot traffic and bicyclists and a lot easier to speed on a stroad (2 lanes each direction).
Similar to red light cams. It’s not as easy to run redlights with a lot of foot traffic and bikes. But it’s extremely easy (per statistics) for someone to run one when turning onto an expressway ramp.
I disagree that these are taxes on the poor. If it’s a problem that the poor can’t pay their tickets that can be handled under forgiveness and work off schemes. The CPD does not do traffic enforcement. That just leaves the cameras to try to keep everyone playing by the same rulebook.
Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 2:25 pm
“I’m wondering if Green will help get a younger voter turnout”
Green’s “I’m young” schtick usually appeals to older voters more than younger voters. The polling is showing that younger voters are looking for someone with more substance than Mr. Green.
Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 3:05 pm
“Quote from yesterday’s Tribune: “This whole campaign is about taking back our city, pure and simple,” Vallas said.
Which raises the questions “Who is doing the taking” and “From whom is it being taken”??”
Yep. If it is Vallas vs. Lightfoot or Johnson…others less likely…the city will be lit up with incendiary discussions, replays of the San Antonio police shooting, echoes of 1983. It will be ugly.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 3:35 pm
Reduce police funding, but at the same time, increase the number of police on the force. Are people actually paying attention to these questions when asked? Never heard of a legit poll that engages people through…email.
Comment by Shytown Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 3:37 pm
**I’m wondering if Green will help get a younger voter turnout**
No
**and if there will be a bigger than normal Black voter turnout?**
No.
**I have always given Wilson a solid 10% in the election, but now think it may be 12%.**
Maybe.
**If it comes down to Chuy and Paul, the Black vote will determine the election.**
As always in Chicago.
Comment by JoeMaddon Tuesday, Feb 14, 23 @ 7:06 pm