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Leftward tilt or just following the voters?

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* The Tribune has a story on the Democratic Party’s “leftward tilt” in Illinois and Chicago…

One major reason Democrats have not fractured so far is the political alternative — Republicans.

People, particularly in the suburbs, who might have once considered themselves moderate Republicans on social issues no longer fit into the narrow cast of what the GOP calls itself now, Mooney said.

And Pritzker said Republicans “have painted themselves into a terrible corner” on social issues.

“We are the party of reproductive rights. There’s nowhere else to go,” he said. “If you are a believer that women’s rights need to be protected, you are a Democrat and should vote for Democrats. If you’re a believer in public safety and protecting our children from being victims of mass shootings at schools, then you are a Democrat and should vote for Democrats.”

It’s also not a top-down phenomenon. Just look at what happened to former longtime state Rep. Mike Zalewski in the 2022 Democratic primary. He didn’t vote for a bill that deleted parental notification of abortion from the statute books and got hammered over it in the Bungalow Belt, even though many of his progressive colleagues endorsed him.

There’s also the Democratic primary win by staunch progressive Rachel Ventura (D-Joliet) over establishment, moderate, pro-union appointed Democratic incumbent Eric Mattson.

The best hope Republicans may have now is that the Democratic base pushes the party so far to the left that the GOP can somehow find a way back in. But, every time the Republicans think this has happened (SAFE-T Act, parental notification, cannabis legalization, trans rights, etc.), Illinois voters intervene to remind them that the Republicans are the ones who are way too far out of step. So far, the Democratic base here is clearly much closer to the general electorate than the Republican base.

* And the new reality is even making the Chicago “Illinois Exodus” Tribune take notice…

Although there is no data cataloging these moves, real estate experts said a number of households have relocated to Illinois, or are preparing to relocate, in search of a safer and more welcoming environment for the LGBTQ community.

Roman Patzner, a real estate agent with Fulton Grace Realty in Chicago, said relocation activity picked up after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, ending the constitutional right to an abortion and leaving many in the LGBTQ community worried about whether their same-sex marriage rights would continue to be protected.

“Because you had what was widely viewed as a federally protected right and the rug was pulled out from (under you),” Patzner said of Roe v. Wade. “In the LGBTQ community, everyone viewed that as a problem for marriage equality, federally.” […]

Redfin found that about half of 1,023 survey respondents among people who recently moved to a new metro area favored living in a place where it’s illegal to discriminate based on “gender/sexual orientation,” as of 2021.

I assume that number is higher two years later, now that so many bills have been signed into law in other states.

…Adding… Related…

* The conservative campaign to rewrite child labor laws: That law passed so swiftly and was met with such public outcry that Arkansas officials quickly approved a second measure increasing penalties on violators of the child labor codes the state had just weakened. … It’s one of several conservative groups that have long taken aim at all manner of government regulations or social safety net programs. The FGA is funded by a broad swath of ultraconservative and Republican donors — such as the Ed Uihlein Family Foundation [controlled by Richard Uihlein] and 85 Fund, a nonprofit connected to political operative Leonard Leo — who have similarly supported other conservative policy groups.

* Losing Ballot Issues on Abortion, G.O.P. Now Tries to Keep Them Off the Ballot: The biggest and most immediate fight is in Ohio, where a coalition of abortion rights groups is collecting signatures to place a constitutional amendment on the ballot in November that would prohibit the state from banning abortion before a fetus becomes viable outside the womb, at about 24 weeks of pregnancy. That would essentially establish on the state level what Roe did nationwide for five decades. Organizers were confident that the measure would reach the simple majority needed for passage, given polls showing that most Ohioans — like most Americans — support legalized abortion and disapprove of overturning Roe. But Republicans in the state legislature are advancing a ballot amendment of their own that would raise the percentage of votes required to pass future such measures to a 60 percent supermajority. The measure has passed the Ohio Senate and is expected to pass the House this week.

* Alabama education director ousted over teacher training book’s stance on race: Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey on Friday announced she replaced her director of early childhood education over the use of a teacher training book, written by a nationally recognized education group, that the Republican governor denounced as teaching “woke concepts” because of language about inclusion and structural racism.

* Florida drag performers balance pain and defiance as anti-LGBTQ+ laws loom: Murders of trans people have doubled over the last four years, according to the nonprofit Everytown for Gun Safety. And a study by the Trevor Project found that, last year, 54% of Florida’s trans and nonbinary youth seriously considered suicide. From California to Oklahoma to Tennessee, right-wing activists toting AR-15s and firebombs have shut down drag brunches and children’s story hours. Last November, a gunman in Colorado Springs killed five people at a gay club that had hosted drag performances that day.

* In a thriving Michigan county, a community goes to war with itself: Moss and the board’s choice to run the county health department was Nathaniel Kelly, an HVAC service manager with degrees from an online university and no experience working in public health. Kelly, who did not respond to multiple requests for comment, had regularly pushed discredited covid treatments, such as the anti-parasitic drug ivermectin.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:19 am

Comments

It’s like the Trib wants a slogan…leftward tilt…for the lips of their readers that is not racist/homophobic/anti reproductive rights to make them more happy in their awful bubble. they know who their readers are, they cater to them and want to influence more. it’s a slogan New Trier moms can spill over coffee after Pilates.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:30 am
==Illinois voters intervene to remind them that the Republicans are the ones who are way too far out of step==

Yep. But the Republican’s don’t seem to get that or don’t care because all they want to do is double down on their view.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:30 am
Progressives have also gotten really good at organizing and turning out to vote. You only need 20% of eligible voters to vote for you to win the mayoral race in Chicago since only 35% of voters turn out to vote.

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:38 am
A significant number of suburban Republicans around me — especially women but not solely — tell me that the national Republican Party has abandoned them, yet they are still emotionally connected to the Republican brand. I feel for them, but see no easy solution for their Party.

Comment by walker Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:41 am
Eh, a bit of a stretch on some of this. Reproductive rights are essentially settled in most parts. Polling shows that. But to put “trans rights” in that list is premature. There is a big difference between scapegoating trans people (what the right does) and the demand for expansion of rights (what the left is calling for). I doubt Republicans can rein themselves in and allow Democrats to overreach but that is probably their best bet.

Comment by Torco Sign Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:41 am
Everyone is a little guilty of wish-casting their preferred political environment, but there is plenty of evidence Pritzker and other IL Dems are taking consensus democratic positions, many very popular with the general public, and the electorate is rewarding them for it. The GOP are the ones out of step, and it is why they have been turning away from small-d democratic rule.

Comment by ChicagoVinny Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:41 am
Abortion is an issue that sorts voters. Not every issue does this. Most people in the general public did not support overturning Roe and don’t support further restrictions, much less full bans. The gop is out of step, but they’re also committed ideologically to a position on abortion. It seems they’d rather maintain that purity than concede any ground even if it means losing elections.

Comment by Left of what Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:47 am
Republicans are dangerous to women’s health, republicans are dangerous to children attending school, adults in the workplace, and want to protect guns over people… while banning books and using divisive language to spread hate.

I can’t think of an 80% policy that the Republicans support that has a majority support overall.

Cults ensure servitude, women should fear the Republican party

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:48 am
Republicans have gone too far and yet the Democrats have the first Mayor of Chicago to lose re-election in 40 years and an 80 year old President with approval in the low 40’s running for re-election.

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:52 am
I think the Republican Party has pushed IL voters to the left. Persuadable voters hardly have rigidly defined thoughts on a lot of issues, so they take cues from people they like and don’t like- and Democrats, for all their many thousands of flaws, are still a lot more likable than Trump/DeSantis/Bailey/DeVore, and spend their rhetorical time and energy on things that matter a whole lot more to normal people than “No law should ever apply to Trump and no one should go to Disney World or drink Bud Light.”

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 9:53 am
===and yet the Democrats have the first Mayor of Chicago to lose re-election in 40 years===

lol

Because she was too far left? Hardly.

=== and an 80 year old President with approval in the low 40’s running for re-election===

This is an Illinois blog and the post is clearly about Illinois. Stick to the topic.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:00 am
=But, every time the Republicans think this has happened (SAFE-T Act, parental notification, cannabis legalization, trans rights, etc.), Illinois voters intervene to remind them that the Republicans are the ones who are way too far out of step.=

This. In the 90’s and early 2000’s I pretty consistently voted republican when it came to statewide offices. Not 100% of the time mind you. But now, while I do not agree with some aspects of the progressive agenda, there just isn’t a place for a voter like me in the gop tent.

The progressive agenda takes up some battles that I don’t think need to be fought, but I would rather have that than depriving people of their freedom and right to choose. The obsession with guns and the willingness to sit and do nothing is also a major turn off.

I will take more protections over less everyday.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:04 am
If you’re pointing to Lightfoot’s loss as “too far left”, keep in mind that Vallas was supported by racist thinkers, insurrection apologists and conspiracy theorists.

Rejecting *Vallas* is not moving “too far left”, it’s rejecting the “far right”

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:06 am
==Democrats have the first Mayor of Chicago to lose re-election in 40 years==

…and her replacement is a Democrat who won in part by pointing out that his opponent was an insufficiently loyal Democrat.

==an 80 year old President with approval in the low 40’s running for re-election==

…and leading the twice-impeached-and-under-indictment Republican frontrunner in most polls.

Sorry, LP, your point failed again.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:12 am
==Republicans have gone too far==

The big thing you need to consider, LP- but you won’t because you’re just a partisan hack- is that Lightfoot was so horribly unpopular…but Republicans couldn’t even put up a candidate. Best they could do was a guy who appeared on their radio shows but loudly insisted he was a Democrat on all his commercials. And Biden is pretty unpopular, too, but Trump just can’t seem to get a lead on him.

Democrats have real problems, but Republicans just can’t capitalize. I wonder why that is, LP? It’s probably not because they’re oh-so-perfect and have never done anything that the public doesn’t like.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:16 am
Even after a bunch of the collar countries shifted Blue in 2008 (though you could notice it too in 2004) they still went for Republicans downballot and in gubernatorial races. Rauner got over 60 percent in DuPage in 2014!

And it’s unlikely to ever happen again.

Comment by Nick Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:17 am
==…yet the Democrats have the first Mayor of Chicago to lose re-election in 40 years…==

An intellectually dishonest statement fit for the pages of the Chicago Tribune editorial section.

Comment by Anon324 Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:20 am
=== Rauner got over 60 percent in DuPage in 2014===

He is pro-choice, which definitely helped.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:23 am
== and yet the Democrats have the first Mayor of Chicago==

Hey genius. She was replaced by another Democrat.

You know LP, you, like other Republicans, just don’t seem to get that the majority of the people in Illinois don’t support your viewpoint. But instead of recognizing that your solution is just to whine and complain. Good luck with that winning you any elections. It’s worked oh so well so far hasn’t it?

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:24 am
=== === Rauner got over 60 percent in DuPage in 2014===

He is pro-choice, which definitely helped.===

Why did Bailey back off from his overtly proud “pro-life” stance after winning the primary?

The context of what the GOP cult sees as the want for their own nominees, those same nominees are too extreme to the “middle” versus the Dem nominees in comparison… for a middle.

It’s why abortion sank so much of the momentum Republicans shoulda had.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:27 am
===If you’re pointing to Lightfoot’s loss as “too far left”===

Anyone who thinks that Lightfoot lost because she was too far left doesn’t actually think much. Lightfoot is all over the place.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:31 am
Wanna make this about the Chicago mayoral?

Think on this;

Those who railed on Bailey as wrong for Illinois than said the choice of “Vallas” was nuanced to the horrible Bailey voters Vallas courted…

… Vallas still lost because hate can’t be nuanced in the “one map of Chicago”

Candidate recruitment has done more to shift Illinois away from Republicans than almost everything, since those candidates embrace cult thinking and policies unfavorable by majority voters, which means general election universe voters.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:31 am
=It’s why abortion sank so much of the momentum Republicans shoulda had.=

And will continue to do so. In the culture war battles, this will continue to be the DPI’s “trump” card (pun intended). the gop can scream trans-whatever (or whatever boogeyman they think up) they lose their voice but it will not win back suburban voters, especially women. If we go much longer people will forget the ilgop even exists north of I-80.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:34 am
The results of a mayor’s race in one of America’s largest cities is a good opportunity to guage voter sentiment in urban America. But Democrats would be unwise drawing conclusions beyond the urban subset Chicago represents.
Messages that help a Democrat win in Chicago aren’t messages that necessarily work in suburban, manufacturing or rural America. Be careful as you draw large, sweeping conclusions.

Comment by This Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:40 am
===aren’t messages that necessarily work in suburban===

Really? Explain.

Abortion? Gun control? Extreme educational banning or social measures?

So where in the GOP winning in Chicagoland?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:42 am
=== He is pro-choice, which definitely helped ===

It’s difficult to imagine the GOP nominating someone like Rauner again, too.

A lot of these suburban voters, who the GOP still need to win, just aren’t picking up a Republican ballot anymore come primary day.

Comment by Nick Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:43 am
–There’s also the Democratic primary win by staunch progressive Rachel Ventura (D-Joliet) over establishment–

Because Will County establishment Democrats have been supporting and ceding control to Republicans at the county government level, despite Republicans not winning elections.

It didn’t go unnoticed locally, and the current county exec is who ‘hand-picked’ and appointed Mattson to that seat. Which at least from what I have heard on the ground, is one of the main reasons he lost. Combine that with claiming to be a democrat, yet being(and voting as a Senator) against womens health, and cannabis decriminalization.

I look forward to the coming Will County establishment Dems having a shake-up to drive out the old crew who seems to be more concerned with giving board control to Will County republicans even when the republicans lose elections and all county level seats.

Locally, the establishment Ds have gone *right*, which is why their establishment picks are not winning anymore - and why Ventura won.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:49 am
===you are a Democrat and should vote for Democrats===

In a state where the State Party has consistently failed to create a formal platform and the state hosts open primaries, this might be an appropriate attitude to take — however there are a lot of people who vote for Democrats or vote for Republicans that do not strongly identify with either party.

The party is supposed to be a little better ideologically structured beyond “whatever the Republicans aren’t doing” or “whatever people that say they’re Democrats tend to do.”

===And Pritzker said Republicans “have painted themselves into a terrible corner” on social issues===

This is very accurate. No one has “moved left” in the last 4 years. The GOP has become the party of book burning and laws targeting women and LGBTQ. The GOP moved to a very dark place and people that might have voted for a Republican candidate or might have split their ticket are finding it very difficult to vote for the party that resembles something very dark and evil that they learned about in history courses.

There also seems to be less of a link between growing more conservative in political views for voters under 40 as they age so there aren’t conservatives to replace the conservatives that die.

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:50 am
==Lightfoot is all over the place.==

And THAT is why she lost. Her “neither fish nor fowl” routine left her without a base.

==Messages that help a Democrat win in Chicago aren’t messages that necessarily work in suburban, manufacturing or rural America.==

Sure, “not necessarily”, but there’s a lot of data points that support the idea that Johnson was doing something that can be replicated at scale. For example, his answer on crime is basically the same as JB’s, the same as Biden’s: “I’m not going to take one dollar away from the police, but we’re also going to look at other ways to prevent crime.” And heck, even most Republicans, even Vallas, talked about fighting the “root causes” of crime.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:50 am
Lightfoot seemed so intent on actively antagonizing everyone that it was like she was intentionally trying to lose.

I get Rich’s admonition to keep this Illinois-centric, but the ILGOP has the same problem the national GOP has had since they lost their mind over the black guy becoming president. They have drank their own koolaid. Their only reaction to everything is to retreat farther and farther into their own bubble. It has worked often enough in gerrymandered states or because of disproportionate rural representation in the Senate that they are getting more and more detached from reality.

The internal emails and texts from the Fox News Dominion case make it clear. The supposedly smart ones at the top of the food chain on the right are acting in fear of the base they created. Years and years of dogwhistles and elevating the most wacky voices on the right, that they have lost control of their base.

Comment by Homebody Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 10:54 am
=The GOP has become the party of book burning and laws targeting women and LGBTQ.=

And the party is quick to condemn those within it that aren’t wiling to adhere to this litmus test. So it’s now dominated in Illinois by the likes of Mary Miller, Tom Devore, and Darren Bailey. It has become the proverbial echo chamber. And that brand is toxic to many of us who used to vote for Republican candidates.

Comment by Pundent Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:04 am
JS Mill +1

Comment by Norseman Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:06 am
“to put ‘trans rights’ in that list is premature. There is a big difference between scapegoating trans people (what the right does) and the demand for expansion of rights (what the left is calling for).”

One treats transgender people like they are fellow human beings and the other demonizes them.

Being humane may be a losing proposition — I do NOT think it is — but I’m going to ride with the team willing to take that risk.

– MrJM

Comment by MisterJayEm Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:20 am
Not only are Republicans out of step in Illinois on cultural issues, they are out of step fiscally. I am one of those weird people that thinks the business of government is… running the government. The last two Republican governors have been completely horrible for Illinois, fiscally speaking.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:30 am
==I get Rich’s admonition to keep this Illinois-centric, but the ILGOP has the same problem the national GOP has had since they lost their mind over the black guy becoming president.==

They both have the same essential problem, and your reference to Fox News hints at it. Politics is downstream of culture, and basically the animating principal of the conservative movement for the last 50 years has been resentment at how culture is changing. That was one thing even into the 90s, because they could resent culture but not really escape it. Railing about the media was cheap heat.

But once the barriers to entry in the media got lower, once the media got fragmented and atomized, the people who resented the media *could* escape it. They could form their own media. And from there, they started losing touch with what everyone else thought.

It’s not altogether a bad thing that people can seek out their tribes and their own preferred media now. But it makes it harder to win an election.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:32 am
The internal emails and texts from the Fox News Dominion case make it clear. The supposedly smart ones at the top of the food chain on the right are acting in fear of the base they created. Years and years of dogwhistles and elevating the most wacky voices on the right, that they have lost control of their base.

Big ol’ bingo for Homebody. They have crossed the event horizon.

Comment by The Truth Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:43 am
The suburban brand for the Democrats is “we’re serious about infrastructure and we’ll protect the rights you’ve taken for granted for the last 10-50 years from the militant revanchism of the federal government and neighboring states.”

The Rauner administration blew a hole in the opposing argument, that the Republicans could lower taxes, cut spending and govern with fiscal responsibility, all while keeping social peace and leaving education and infrastructure in place. It’ll be a while before the R’s recover from that, and most of the dregs aren’t even trying to salvage that platform.

Comment by 48th Ward Heel Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:45 am
===The Rauner administration blew a hole in the opposing argument, that the Republicans could lower taxes, cut spending and govern with fiscal responsibility, all while keeping social peace and leaving education and infrastructure in place.===

Rauner did far worse than that.

Rauner and the Raunerites kept a whole state hostage without a budget for an entire General Assembly.

It’s not a policy loss, it was a “burn it all down unless” strategy that Illinois is still trying to recover.

Rauner merely failed at ending labor as we know it.

The purposeful damage still exists, and it will take a decade to recover.

(Tips cap, thoughtfully, to - JS Mill -)

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:51 am
This is such a weird state of flux. You could sense the city had a lot more suburbanites in it 10 years ago. They may be like me, homeless (a moderate R). Then, you have left led by the OG Progressive Toni Preckwinkle and a state led by a progressive who seems more like Jim Thompson or Bill Clinton.

Comment by levivotedforjudy Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 11:57 am
I love the Trib calling it a ‘leftward tilt’ as the right clamors for a return to the 1840s.

Comment by Jocko Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 12:07 pm
I am not convinced that calling Ventura’s defeat of Mattsen in an off cycle primary that was held in JUNE due to COVID is an indicator of anything. Rachel’s status as a perpetual candidate has created significant name recognition. Not to mention that the Roe reversal decision came down in the middle of that campaign.

Way too many weird variables to use Ventura’s win as solid evidence that Will County is now the land of lefties.

Comment by Retired School Board Member Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 12:21 pm
===Rachel’s status as a perpetual candidate has created significant name recognition===

lol

She was vastly outspent. Embarrassingly so, your lame excuses notwithstanding. She had the full support of the SDems as well. They were all-in.

===use Ventura’s win as solid evidence that Will County is now the land of lefties===

LOL

Try reading what I wrote, not what you want to twist it into.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 12:26 pm
–use Ventura’s win as solid evidence that Will County is now the land of lefties.–

Not so much that, as Will County is starting to see through the “I’m running as a D publicly to get your vote, but I will vote against everything in the D platform”, which worked for awhile here but isn’t anymore.

This was also going on as the D county exec was trying to consolidate power into her office, by ignoring the state laws defining types of county govt.

I’m a strongly solid D voter, but even the voting rolls here in Will County only identify me a ‘lean D’, because there are a lot of Will County Ds I refuse to ever vote for - because they simply do not vote or act once in office according to the platform they claim to represent. That then spills over into how I vote for anyone they would endorse or appoint.

It took a long time for DuPage to turn into what it is now. It’s going to take a long time for Will County to drift away from what it is now too. Ventura is just a sign the fireblocks of the establishment Ds in Will County are starting to crumble.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 1:19 pm
==Lightfoot seemed so intent on actively antagonizing everyone =

This is why she lost. That pic of her getting in the face of Jeannette Taylor (20th Ward) on the Council Floor was the visual example of this. Taylor should have been one of her closest allies yet MLL managed to alienate her as well. Lightfoot did this w everyone and hence she lost.

Comment by low level Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 2:39 pm
Nothing spells Socialism like the guv’mint telling you what you can or cant do with your own body, how to raise your family, what books you can read.

That is today’s Republican party they are are more radical leftists than Bernie Sanders.

Comment by Jerry Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 2:53 pm
The Republican Party is out-of-step with Illinois by about 25 years or so, and they show no signs of moving forward at all.

Illinois Democrats have managed to build and hold together a very broad coalition. As long as they continue to hold that coalition together of 55% of the vote, they can go as far left as the coalition wants.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Apr 24, 23 @ 7:49 pm