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Speaker Welch turns thumbs down on graduated income tax revival, throws some cold water on LGDF hike, says abortion rights constitutional amendment could receive vote

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Illinois

* Capitol News Illinois…

During one of those discussions, House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, D-Hillside, drew applause when he responded with an emphatic “no” when asked if he plans to try again for passage of a constitutional amendment to allow for a graduated state income tax.

“You know, one of the things I’ve learned is you learn a lot in losses. And, you know, we got our butts kicked on that issue,” he said. “We have to find a different way to govern, and we’ve been doing that. And that different way of governing has led to eight credit upgrades and several balanced budgets and surpluses, where we have a rainy-day fund and Illinois is on the right track.”

It was never gonna happen, despite all the hype out there earlier in the spring.

* Lee Enterprises…

Last week, local government leaders lobbied state legislators to gradually restore their share of the state’s income tax receipts to 10%. It is currently a bit over 6%.

Welch indicated such a jump is not likely due to other budgetary pressures, such as the state’s evidence-based funding formula for schools.

“Is there room to improve? I think so. Is it 10%? No,” Welch said.

* Tribune…

Illinois House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch on Wednesday vowed there wouldn’t be another attempt to ask voters to approve a graduated-rate income tax, but did not rule out putting a proposed constitutional amendment codifying a women’s right to abortion on the 2024 presidential election year ballot to drive Democratic turnout.

House Republican Leader Tony McCombie, meanwhile, acknowledged that while her caucus does not have a single lawmaker who supports abortion, she would be open to supporting a suburban GOP candidate who supports the procedure. Republicans were once the dominant party in the suburbs but their hard-line positions on social issues, including opposition to abortion, has eroded the party’s support. […]

In rattling off abortion rights legislation the Democratic-led legislature has passed in the last few years, including the 2019 Reproductive Health Act, Welch hinted that an abortion rights amendment could provide an extra jolt of motivation for the state’s Democratic voters in November 2024.

“We have done a really good job in Illinois at being the place that folks across the country know is a place where we value women, we trust women,” he said. “The issue is one that is pretty clear here, especially here in Illinois. If it is on the ballot, it could potentially help Democratic turnout.”

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 8:58 am

Comments

“We have to find a different way to govern”

It makes sense to do this for the time being, given how recent the graduated income tax was attempted and failed.

But I hope he isn’t suggesting that they won’t try again sometime in the next 4-6 years, because the wealthy really don’t contribute enough to state finances. If they did, we could do things like adequately fund higher education.

Comment by Techie Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:06 am
“We have to find a different way to govern”

Good, don’t waste time on failures and move on. Contrast this with Republicans, who couldn’t stop trying to repeal or weaken the ACA. They had a deranged obsession, trying but failing dozens of times. Or anyone in Illinois pushing right wing policies after failing with voters in multiple elections, in terms of state government partisan make-up.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:11 am
They got their butts kicked because they 1) let the opposition define the issue early and 2) got wayyyy to cute with spinning it as a tax cut while not making even cosmetic cuts in the budget at the time they were trying to pass it. There are few things more necessary to the long-term health of this state than a graduated income tax - this is short-term thinking at its worst.

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:11 am
=Last week, local government leaders lobbied state legislators to gradually restore their share of the state’s income tax receipts to 10%. It is currently a bit over 6%.=

If municipalities need more revenue they have the authority to raise it through their tax levy or adding a local sales tax. They just don’t have the will to do it after preaching “taxes are too high”.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:16 am
–throws some cold water on LGDF hike–

Toss in some TIF reform, and get the discussion going.

Put a carrot/stick on the use of TIF and tie it to a new LGDF formula for each individual government agency receiving LGDF.

The specifics can be hammered out, but a 1:5 TIF/LDGF ratio is a good start. For every 5 dollars of TIF collected by the agency receiving LGDF, 1 dollar of LGDF is subtracted from being distributed.

Or we could always set it back to the original 10% of a 3% income tax collection. Which would end up being pretty close to the current 6% of 4.95%. Over time, the legislature has kept the total dollar amount fairly consistent, to track the changes in income tax. I can understand the ask from IMF, but it’s being done in a less than upfront manner.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:22 am
“Abortion should be safe, legal, and rare.”

Have we come a long way from then-Gov Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign quote, and repeated by Hillary Clinton in 2008 to the talk of putting a constitutional amendment to make abortion-on-demand (all abortions outside rape, incest & threat to mother’s life) on the 2024 ballot just to drive up Democratic turnout in a state that will go Democrat for POTUS anyway.

Speaker Welch really wants to flip those 8 to 10 Republican seats left in Chicago suburbs still held by Republicans to put House Democrats’ caucus well over 80, something his predecessor never did.

It may happen in Illinois but fortunately not in most states until I’m long gone, buried & forgotten.

Comment by John Lopez Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:22 am
===It may happen in Illinois but fortunately not in most states until I’m long gone, buried & forgotten.===

It’s a losing proposition for Republicans at all levels, it could very well sink each and every “GOP” or “Trumpkin” POTUS candidate from now until a national abortion bill becomes law.

Telling a woman they have no right to their body, all but requiring a woman, in a few cases, children, required to have a pregnancy go to term will hopefully eradicate “GOP” cultists, even in places like Georgia or Kansas

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:40 am
–she would be open to supporting a suburban GOP candidate who supports the procedure.–

McCombie is missing the forest for the trees.

Even if a R candidate claims to support it, not many women are going to believe them anymore.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:43 am
==on the 2024 ballot just to drive up Democratic turnout==

…or maybe, I dunno, Chris wants his daughter to have bodily autonomy?

Comment by Jocko Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:43 am
“drew applause when he responded with an emphatic “no” … graduated state income tax”

The applause reflects common sense. With Illinois having the second highest Real Estate taxes - the last thing we need is a graduated income tax.

https://www.thestreet.com/real-estate/states-highest-property-tax-rates

Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:44 am
==“Abortion should be safe, legal, and rare.”

Have we come a long way from then-Gov Bill Clinton’s 1992 presidential campaign quote==

Yes, we have, because Republicans made it illegal (and thus, unsafe) in many places. And “rare” always referred to putting enough social services in place that women would not want to have abortions, but Republicans oppose those, too.

So, yeah, we’ve gone from “safe, legal, and rare” to “dangerous, illegal, and rare”, and that’s thanks to Republican politicians.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:45 am
===With Illinois having the second highest Real Estate taxes - the last thing we need is===

You do realize that property taxes are relatively high here mainly because state income taxes have been relatively low over the years, right?

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 9:55 am
==With Illinois having the second highest Real Estate taxes - the last thing we need is a graduated income tax.==

Except that a graduated income tax would’ve represented a tax *cut* for hundreds of thousands of Illinoisans, but I guess we don’t care about them.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:04 am
“You do realize that property taxes are relatively high here mainly because state income taxes have been relatively low over the years, right?”

This could be the biggest selling point for a progressive income tax. That by having the wealthy pay something closer to their fair share, we can both increase funding for things like K-12 and higher education, and also decrease property taxes.

I don’t know how the legal mechanics would work, maybe something like if your municipality wants to receive additional state education funding, you must decrease property taxes? Someone smarter than me can surely find a way.

Comment by Techie Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:05 am
–With Illinois having the second highest Real Estate taxes–

Illinois doesn’t have real estate taxes. Your local municipality and other local boards set those.

The best con local government have pulled is to push off their responsibility for local taxes, onto the state. All while they keep spinning up new TIF districts to capture the money meant for other local districts. Which eventually does cause those other districts to raise their rate as well. Then there’s the continuation of that con by those who look for any excuse they can find to claim “Illinois bad”.

Sure, there is some link with school district funding from the state. But when I look at how some administrators spend money, and/or refuse to consolidate 1 school districts, I can’t help but think they would still have the same problems with local taxes no matter how much the state distributes to them.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:11 am
===you must decrease property taxes===

As K-12 funding rises, there will be less natural upward pressure on property taxes. Also, if they do get to a point where the state reaches adequacy, property tax increases will be a majorly tougher sell at the ballot box.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:13 am
===With Illinois having the second highest Real Estate taxes - the last thing we need is===

=You do realize that property taxes are relatively high here mainly because state income taxes have been relatively low over the years, right?=

Again for the people in the back.

My in-laws in Missouri just can’t understand this as they tell me all about how Illinois is terrible and all my taxes.

I remind them that my income tax is lower than theirs, I pay zero personal property tax, and yes I would like my Illinois property tax bill to be lower but when you compare my tax bill and theirs its almost the same.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:16 am
What a lost opportunity for the average Illinois resident the graduated tax vote was. We literally voted to save the extreme rich money, while also denying a tax cut for many of the poorest residents. How foolish it was- thank you Ken Griffin.

Comment by Lincoln Lad Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:31 am
We know nearly all agree the “Fair Tax” mish-mash WAS A POORLY executed effort so one will take that on for many moons. The LDGF might get a bump if there was a commitment to use some cash to pay down the local pension debt.

Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:34 am
Being wholly and purposely dishonest about property taxes to seem “smart” to IPI or Wirepoints, odds are you’re the mark they count on.

Locals control property taxes.

Check with your schools.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:39 am
I still believe the biggest failure for the attempt at the graduated income tax amendment was mostly that the proposed rates would not have made any significant differences for anyone making less than $250k. Yeah, there would technically have been as much as $65 less taxes but that isn’t going to make much of a difference for anyone. Add in the fact that Ken Griffin was pretty much controlling the narrative to save himself a boatload of money and it was doomed to fail. With Ken Griffin becoming a Florida man now, we might have a better chance in the future of passing a similar amendment.

Comment by Aaron Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:46 am
The thing about property taxes and rich people is yes, they gripe about their property taxes, but at the same time they know it’s getting turned around and spent on -their- kids and -their- schools. Even in Chicago, the amount that the rich-school-district parents fundraise and turn back to their particular CPS schools, is kind of crazy.

Income taxes mean you spread it around and your money indirectly funds a poor school district downstate or in some of the Cook suburbs. Which is a hard no for some of these voters. They and their kids would be better off, I believe, if the whole state and kids everywhere, were better funded, but that’s a big picture / public goods perspective you are unlikely to sell many of these voters on.

Comment by ZC Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 10:56 am
===we might have a better chance in the future of passing a similar amendment===

71 and 36, then 60 percent or a majority of all those voting.

Big hurdles all.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 11:11 am
How can the legislature possibly complain about a lack of revenue. They recently agreed to provide to health care to undocumented residents telling us if was maybe 20 million expense. Now it turns out it is actually almost one billion. Want to free up some money- cap the program at 20 million pegged to the inflationary growth in the budget. Problem solved

Comment by Sue Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 11:13 am
==This could be the biggest selling point for a progressive income tax. That by having the wealthy pay something closer to their fair share, we can both increase funding for things like K-12 and higher education, and also decrease property taxes.==
This was the selling point. Ken Griffin spent big bucks to make sure people didn’t buy it.

Comment by Nuke The Whales Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 11:44 am
===And, you know, we got our butts kicked on that issue===

I reject this use of the term “we.” A poorly managed campaign financed by a billionaires pocket change is not a we. Someone convinced us they had it handled, and then just failed to deliver.

A progressive income tax remains popular with voters and Democratic voters and pretending like it is a settled issue because of a poorly executed campaign to add it to the amendment is a disservice to both Democratic and democratic ideals.

Comment by Candy Dogood Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 12:07 pm
There’s a reason I call it the “Fair Tax Flop”

Sometimes three words can say it all.

The path to revisit is not only uphill but uphill, upwind, avalanche snow waiting.

It’ll be at least a decade away from a revisit, (economically, politically, philosophically…)

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 12:11 pm
===I remind them that my income tax is lower than theirs, I pay zero personal property tax, and yes I would like my Illinois property tax bill to be lower but when you compare my tax bill and theirs its almost the same.===

Correct, been true for a while.

https://www.bnd.com/news/local/article116857563.html

Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 1:22 pm
==she would be open to supporting a suburban GOP candidate who supports the procedure. ==

Yes but would any of them win a primary? Its quite a contrast from the 80’s - 90’s when you had several pro choice Republican legislators from the suburbs.

Comment by low level Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 1:41 pm
==You do realize that property taxes are relatively high here mainly because state income taxes have been relatively low over the years, right?==

I dunno, New Jersey has had a progressive tax with moderate rates for decades and it’s done nothing to lower their almost-as-high property taxes. Nearly twenty years ago, they even added a surcharge on income over $500K using a rate higher than the fair’s tax’s $250K+ rates and yet they’re still ranked at the bottom. The point being the money never seems to make its back to the locals.

Comment by City Zen Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 1:52 pm
===I dunno, New Jersey===

We have a statute on the books that requires a K-12 increase every year. Don’t know if NJ has that or not, but try to stick to the topic. Schools drive property taxes far more than municipalities.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 2:01 pm
@Sue. The hospitals and clinics are already suffering financially. If the State didn’t pay for the undocumented to receive health care, a lot of hospitals and clinics could fail, because the hospitals and clinics would have to eat that cost. The bigger question is when the medical infrastructure starts to fail, and people have to drive 50+ miles or more for treatment (including emergencies), what then?

Comment by Appears Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 3:59 pm
” A poorly managed campaign financed by a billionaires pocket change is not a we. Someone convinced us they had it handled, and then just failed to deliver.” I agree, and I’m a bit worried seeing that the same campaign manager will be running the President’s 2024 campaign.

Comment by pro bono Thursday, Apr 27, 23 @ 5:28 pm