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A tale of two state budgets

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Illinois

April’s plummeting general funds receipts — a drop of $1.84 billion from the previous year — is stunning in anyone’s estimation. But budget-makers at the state Capitol aren’t panicking.

Compared with 2022, revenue fell a whopping 23% last month, driven by a drop of $1.76 billion in personal income tax, according to the legislative Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability.

On its face, that would seemingly cause jitters and with one week left in the spring legislative session, it might historically be a call for the May money magic from days of yore that led to mountains of debt in the last two decades. […]

Gov. J.B. Pritzker pointed out that the budget he proposed last winter for the fiscal year that begins July 1 relies on estimated revenue of $49.94 billion. His Office of Management and Budget currently estimates next year’s revenue increase at $532 million, about 1%, more.

* Now, on to California Public Radio…

California’s expected budget deficit has grown to $31.5 billion, standing in stark contrast to $100 billion surpluses of the past two years. It’s driven largely by lagging tax revenue from high-income earners.

Governor Gavin Newsom is currently presenting his $306.5 billion spending plan. It includes plans for filling the deficit, which has grown from the $22.5 billion shortfall predicted in January.

The deficit is “well within our expectation and well within our capacity to address,” Newsom said. […]

Despite a shortfall, the governor is proposing a 5% increase to higher education budgets and an 8.2% cost of living adjustment for K-12 and community college staff. […]

His revised budget would spend $3.7 billion on homelessness, up from the $3.4 billion he proposed in January.

Jerry Brown brought some much-needed sound management to state government and Newsom has been able to build on that. In Illinois, balanced budgets have not been a normal thing for decades.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 15, 23 @ 1:54 pm

Comments

This is what happens when a legislature enacts permanent programs relying on temporary revenue (COVID Federal largesse)- when the federal dollars stop flowing we are stuck with the deficit. That and assuming windfall capital gains would continue was spectacularly dumb

Comment by Sue Monday, May 15, 23 @ 2:14 pm
===federal dollars stop flowing we are stuck with the deficit===

Can you not read?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, May 15, 23 @ 2:18 pm
From the same AP article that Sue couldn’t be bothered to read:

“At an unrelated bill signing last week, he said that was intentional, anticipating a slowdown in the U.S. economy and the end to federal COVID-19 recovery funds.

“It’s actually a lower revenue estimate that was put into my budget than we actually thought. We wanted to make sure that we were being conservative,” Pritzker said. “If we pass the budget as it is, that budget would be balanced and we would have a surplus.””

Comment by Anon324 Monday, May 15, 23 @ 2:36 pm
One of the most valuable things I’ve learned from CapFax commenters (though alas I forgot which one) is how Jerry Brown pulled off that fiscal discipline politically, slashing spending first to show what it would mean in terms of services to voters. https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerry-browns-legacy-a-6-1-billion-budget-surplus-in-california-1515624022

Comment by ChicagoBars Monday, May 15, 23 @ 2:52 pm
So JB was responsible and conservative. The GOP response? Crickets.

Comment by Tired teacher Monday, May 15, 23 @ 9:01 pm