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It ain’t over yet

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Illinois

I’m pretty sure the governor is bringing us back in a couple of weeks. At least that’s what he’s thinking now. God help us all.

posted by Rich Miller
Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 1:06 am

Comments

Amen to that God help us all

Comment by Speaking at Will Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 1:29 am
it’s official — he’s insane AND dillusional.

Comment by dupage progressive Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 2:18 am
as he should… the speaker is completely playing this to the benefit of his daughter. there is incredible demand for a capital bill. the republicans are demanding it, every public interest group is demanding it, the speakers very own caucus is demanding it. he is failing to call it for his very own daughters interest. and it is very unfortunate.

Comment by FlackrBackr Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 2:50 am
If people don’t vote this group of do-nothings out at the next election, we, the taxpayers, will really need God’s help. How the citizens of this state allowed a the four tops to gain so much power over our everyday lives is mindboggling. If you passed any one of this guys on the street or listened to them talk without knowing who they were, you wouldn’t give them the time of day. To misquote a popular phrase, “Power isn’t everything, it’s the ONLY thing.”

Comment by Disgusted Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:14 am
Did the funds sweeps bill pass both houses?

Comment by irish 7 Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:32 am
Hoosier Park casino is opening Monday - Indiana has slots and race tracks, land based casinos, jobs, and money to pay it’s bills. Maybe Madigan and company need to start thinking of the Illinois taxpayers (where we are now paying the highest sales tax in cook county).
The Illinois voters need to wake up and see the this problem does not belong to the Gov - but to select members of the House. They do not realize the needs of this state and they have their agenda. Madigan and company - do you want illinois to another Michigan - then keep doing what you are doing (nothing). Finally michigan has caught on after companies closed or moved, state unemployment grew to record levels and the state could not pay its bills. Now they are trying to turn things around (Four Winns just opened) - but thiose jobs are gone. I know much of Illinois horse racing industry was waiting to hear - that industry is on life support - and it cannot survive another month without help. We have bridge and roads that needed repairs/replacement years ago - do we need people to die for Madigan and the house to wake-up. Is this about Lisa - I would hope the voters would realize the apple does not fall far from the tree - if Michael spent 8 years standing in the way of finding solutions and financing our pension debt every single year. Olympics in Chicago? The Olympic committee will see that Illinois cannot pay its bills let alone make improvements to transportation and infrastructure. A note to the Illinois house - your revenue will drop with fewer jobs, compnies closing, people leaving the state. So without capital - it is goodbye jobs, olympics, special interest programs, growth - and hello to more borrowing and debt that our kids will pay for years to come.

Comment by capitol bill Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:33 am
Is the Governor going to veto the budget bills? What are the chances of an override? How many billion dollars out-of-balance are the bills passed by the Illinois General Assembly?

Comment by puzzled Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:04 am
Ol’ Blah-Blah will, of course, do something stupid like call some “special” sessions so he gets center stage. It’s hard to be in the spotlight when the light is turned off. Blah’s relationship to the media - can’t live with with ‘em, can’t live without ‘em.

So what if it wastes a ton of the taxpayer’s money. When has fiscal responsibility ever been a concern for that guy?

Comment by More Waste Ahead Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:08 am
Whew! And I was worried our legislature was going to be a do-nothing-until-the-last-minute group this year. I’m glad 6 years of ‘reform & renewal’ are paying off now…..

Comment by Vote Quimby! Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:12 am
The sky is falling, The sky is falling!!

Comment by Bill Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:18 am
Moving on up. Did the state elected offieholders still get their pay raises for not doing their jobs again?

Comment by keepin up with jones Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:22 am
Surprise, surprise. The legislators get themselves a raise by default. Another surprise (NOT!), they leave the hard decisions about spending until after the November elections. I hope people don’t forget this piece of sleight of hand, especially the SJR, which has a bully pulpit to keep reminding people of the errors of the legislators’ ways. I also hope that AFSCME takes full advantage of the legislators pay raise topic in their negotiations for a new contract. And I hope AFSCME spends a little money right before the elections to remind people of this thumb-of-the-nose by legislators towards AFSCME and all the other taxpayers in Illinois.

Comment by Disgusted Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:36 am
I pray we don’t have a “Minnesota type” bridge issue anytime soon. If we do, God help the members of the House who helped Speaker Madigan finish off the Capital plan.

As they were leaving the Statehouse last night, a Democrat told me, “some people don’t know what they just did and there is going to be price to be paid for it.”

It will be interesting to see Madigan’s members react to labor putting money people into their opponent’s races this year.

Comment by Give Me A Break Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 8:21 am
I would love to see the vote on the motion to table…does anyone have it?

Comment by left of here Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 8:22 am
Well look at it this way, we at least get a two week vacation! While G-Rod fine tunes the budget……………..HELP!

Comment by South of I 80 Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:14 am
I am waiting on the Rezko jury. Maybe that will change his thinking.

Comment by Truth Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:21 am
$60 billion seems like more than plenty of money to give our politicos to run the state this fiscal year.

We’ll see if the Dems’ rosy predictions about revenues in this year of continuing economic strain are accurate. After all, gas revenues are up. If not, so he has to cut somewhere. I’m sure there are plenty of places to cut.

Comment by Cassandra Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:29 am
It might be a wise move on his part if he could line up support to really beat the drum for a capital plan that doesn’t rely so much on gambling. But if it’s just going to be a waiting game, I don’t think there’s much point.

It’s summer — who’s paying attention? Gas prices, a hot presidential election, pennant races, vacations — I’m not sure if there’s an audience for the Blago/Madigan/Jones Summertime Fun Hour.

A summer session probably would get the ball rolling on articles of impeachment by bored House Dems. People would pay attention to that.

Comment by wordslinger Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:32 am
Let’s see:
Labor backs GOPs who oppose taxes/gambling and working families in general election — doubt it
Blagoof buried in new news on bad choices — count on it.
Gamblers get zip — again.
Capital advocates look for real funding source and renew efforts — smart move.
Have a great summer! Go Cards!

Comment by DumberThanYou Think Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:58 am
Noone besides under the domers care much about capital Maybe labor. So the incumbents Crespo and Floehlich are the only two dems needing protection. The rest of the time will be sent picking up the suburban ring of republicans. Why would Madigan give the republican targets opportunities to hand out checks? Never mind about Rod. It’s about the republican targets.

Comment by I Like Mike Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:09 am
And you forgot, Steve:
Mad-again campaigns across state to raise taxes.

Make that Speaker Tax-again.

Comment by problem Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:15 am
Madigan should have pushed a bill to rename our state to ‘Michigan West’ - since his ‘do nothing’ policies and borrowing our future is exactly what Michigan did. After 18% unemployment and an extreme statewide recession, Michigan passed gaming and construction. It’s now functional but they waited too long - those jobs are gone and many people will never recover from their legislator’s mistakes.

Blago is our only hope to get these guys back to finish their job! Make your jokes and negative comments about Blago - but he is trying to make Illinois a better place for everyone.

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:17 am
Re: the comment beginning “It might be a wise move on his part…” reminds me that it’s tough to recall the last wise move he made.

Hey Rich- this is fun. You should have the doors open every weekend. Too many of us can’t read or comment during work hours (CMS data police are watching).

Comment by DuPage Dave Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:23 am
I think the Madigan’s learned state politics from Michigan. ‘do nothing’, and Tax and borrow to push the state into a deeper recession - maybe Illinois will also see 18% unemployment! Michigan learned from it’s mistakes and opened several new` casino’s - but it is too late. People’s lives, credit, employement is going to take years to recover.

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:29 am
Once again it is left up to Governor Blagojevich to clean up the mess left by the Illinois House. While House Dems refused to support the capital bill with adequate and appropriate revenue streams that was supported by the Governor and passed by the Senate, they worked hard to pass an unbalanced budget which would require a tax increase to fully fund. Should we try to live within our means by reconfiguring and expanding existing revenue sources (gaming, lottery, etc.) or should we live beyond our means by deficit spending and continuing to borrow from future generations of Illinoisans? The Governor will not stand by and let the House spend state gov’t into bankruptcy forcing a massive tax increase after they are safely re-elected. He stands ready to make the hard choices that citizens expect of their leaders. Not many are buying the old line that this is all the governor’s fault. The public knows who is to blame for this mess. They know it is not Rod Blagojevich.

Comment by Bill Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:33 am
Re: “the public knows who is to blame”. Once again, Bill stands alone on the issue of what the public thinks of the governor. Perhaps if the Governor worked a little harder things would have worked out better for his agenda. Maybe if he left his house once in a while. We don’t see him at JRTC too often. They only light the Christmas tree once a year.

Comment by DuPage Dave Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:40 am
It’s this petty childish squabbling between Madigan and Blago that’s makes me ashamed to be a Democrat. Heck, I might even switch parties but for the total lack of Republican power downstate. Let’s face it—Madigan is a Republican in Democrat clothing.

Comment by Elk Grove Democrat Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 11:19 am
Whatever grand plan Blago has, I think a strong Rezko verdict is going to disrupt it. I think that is why he’s been running silent recently, not because he’s had some change of heart about the budget process. Every time he come up to periscope depth, the reporters go off-script and bombard him with scandal questions. This is perhaps why Rod’s had stand-ins and substitutes go out and work the crowds for his budget initiatives lately.

As long as Tony’s trial is going on, and especially if the verdict goes against him, this governor is toast whenever he tries to make a media splash and get his version of the budget story out to voters. It is not going to get heard over the scandal questions and repeated stonewalling.

Once again, he did it to himself.

Comment by Gregor Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 11:59 am
I do place blame on the legislature for sending Blago an unbalanced budget. So I think there’s lots of things that are going to happen: 1) Blago is going to sit on the budget with the threat (again) of a State shutdown; 2) Blago will call everyone back for Special Session so the legislators get a back door pay raise and hoping to “buy” their vote for whatever he wants (we have some easy legislators); 3) Sangamon County Judge will have to pile on top of the existing special session lawsuit several more items that will come about this year; 4) There will be no Capital bill until Blago is gone (gee, it’s something called trust that Blago just scratches his head over); 5) Rezko will be found guilty.

I watched in wonderment the other night when I saw Blago come onto the House floor. I thought to myself, self, if he had just done this from the very beginning of his term, you know rolled up his sleeves like Thompson and GRyan would do and actually have some constructive communication with House members, not the least of which should have been the Speaker. This might have been a whole lot better for Blago if he had worked this way - you know the way that most civilized leaders would work. Blago is a great campaigner, great at repeating (ad nauseum) the same facts and figures over and over. However, he is just a plain poor communicator when he has to stand and think on his feet which causes him to say really stupid things. Plus the fact that the man has lost the greatest asset one can possibly have - HIS WORD.

Comment by Little Egypt Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 12:03 pm
if blago calls them back in , is it possible that then they could relook a capital and gaming bill. i get the feeling they just wanted to irritate the gov and take thier non-deserving pay raises home. everybody in this state should start calling their reps office’s and just start unloading on how they wont be re-elected if this dont get done. i never thought i would say this as a union committeeman for the u.a.w. but i am turning republican!! goodbye madigain!

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 12:11 pm
For the second year running, Madigan has out-maneuvered Blago, Emil, and Filan and gotten a budget without fund sweeps. Touche!

Comment by Second year running ... Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 12:19 pm
There is absolutely no truth to the rumor that the gov’s middle name is “Inssein.”

Comment by Excessively rabid Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 12:57 pm
“It was nice to see him on the floor,” Madigan said. I think that is classic MM at his best. Very entertaining. Perhaps even prophetic!

Comment by A Citizen Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 1:51 pm
I found it interesting and a little sad to see Blago on the House floor last night. Talk about a fish out of water! First of all, he should have taken his jacket off when he walked in, which would have given an appearance of a “working” governor, even though jackets are usually required attire. He didn’t appear to have a game plan - just make a PR appearance, smile, walk around, find a few hands to shake, whisper some sweet nothings in a few ears, make a few promises he won’t keep. Here we have a governor who doesn’t even know how to act like one, much less BE one. How very sad indeed for our state. Any self-respecting Dem or GOP who decides to run against Blago, should he grow a pair and run again, could and should use this segment for a campaign commercial - “Hey look, Blago finally finds his way to the House floor, 6 years late.”

Comment by Just My Opinion Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 1:58 pm
Darn it “Rabid”… you mean we can’t start referring to him as R. Inssein Blagojevich?

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 2:14 pm
Rich, when I saw your post, I went to church and lit a candle for the Illinois taxpayers.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 2:29 pm
Maybe the capital bill and associated revenue streams pass with a Governor that the House trusts. But, since we’re going to have to wait a while for that to happen, the odds of getting anything substantative done will continue to be slim.

Comment by Budget Watcher Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 2:34 pm
Disgusted, can you explain how the voters of this state “allowed” the Four Tops to gain so much power? By reelecting them again and again, I suppose; but when was the last time any of them had any serious opposition?

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 2:53 pm
The Guv must give jj Sundays off.

Comment by Champaign Mike Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 3:12 pm
How much is the jet fuel going to cost the taxpayers of Illinois?
Buy Rod bicycle!

Comment by Wacker Drive Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 3:14 pm
Exactly, Bookworm, they keep getting elected, no matter what they do or neglect to do for the taxpayers. I wonder how much it will take to have people think before they vote. How about looking at a record once in a while before the button is pushed.

Comment by Disgusted Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 4:45 pm
I don’t think it is just a matter of the legislator’s record. It’s also difficult to find replacements for problem legislators, who, once they’ve been in office a while, are very difficult to dislodge. Studies have shown that while many citizens deplore gerrymandering and other political techniques used to protect incumbents, most like their legislators, even the ones who by any objective measure are truly terrible.

How many seats in the statehouse are really in play this year. Not that many as a percentage of the whole, I bet.

Comment by Cassandra Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 5:38 pm
The Governor should call a Special Session to invest in Illinois with passage of a capital bill. That would be the perfect way to finish this year’s legislative action.

Comment by There he goes again Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 5:41 pm
It is incredible that Mike Madigan, Chairman of the Democratic Party, was lobbying AGAINST the capital bill on the floor both Friday and Saturday. If there was ever a reason to dump him, we’ve seen it.

Comment by Selene Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 5:54 pm
the house leader, a democrat, usually looked at as a working mans kinda guy that supports union workers, fails the biggest number of potential workers in illinois history. wow! if a ceo did a brain dead thing like he did, they would not be ceo very long. maybe the impeachment process should be turned in madigans direction.

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:13 pm
Did Blago, Hoffman and Jones really think they could take over the House last night. The theatrics were unbelievable. Nobody has mentioned the fact that $1 billion was added to this to buy off the black caucus. Plus all the transit money going to Chicago. Why would any downstate legislator even think about voting for this. There were no quarantees in any of the bills that money would be spent where the Blago people said it would be. There were no MOU’s being signed even. I say thank you to Madigan for saving us from another Blago disaster. Now let’s do it right.

Comment by Thank God for Madigan Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:21 pm
It’s not as if the bill the Senate passed at the last minute was the only possible capital bill. It was a bad capital bill. It deserved to fail on its merits.

Blago has had 5 years to come up with a good capital bill, but has failed to do so. So don’t slam Madigan or anyone else who voted against the bill- it was a piece of junk.

Comment by DuPage Dave Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:21 pm
This is probably a topic for another thread and maybe has been dealt with before… but leaving aside the question of the current governor’s suitability to implement it (as difficult as that may be), what evidence do we have, one way or the other, that the potential revenue generated by a capital projects bill will exceed its cost? Is this something we can’t afford to do, or something we can’t afford NOT to do?

Comment by Bookworm Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:22 pm
Ya…so what else is new with this bunch. They all go home looking like they done something…when in fact they haven’t. A sham budget, full of opened ended deals, shortfalls in the billions & awaiting the guv’s veto pen. What happened to the good old days when session ajourned meant session adjourned, the peoples work was really done, budget in place & they all went to the parties like @ the old 2nd street tavern then headed home for the summer. I remenber a session adjourning in April. Ahhhh the good ole’ days !?

Comment by annon Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:23 pm
Selene honey That is the very reason to keep him! No one in their right mind would hand guv a 33 or 34 Billion dollar blank check. Remember? He can not be trusted!

Comment by A Citizen Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:23 pm
I’ve got another question. If we need a Capital Bill every 6-10 years or so (as in Thompson’s and Ryan’s administrations), how will we finance the next one? There are only so many casino licenses to hand out before the market is saturated, state assets to be sold or leased til all the attractive ones are gone, etc.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:30 pm
cut wasteful spending, settle what’s owed before launching off on more programs with out a supportivr income stream. they just don’t know what they’re doing. what next ??….the executive mansion china on “eBAY” ???

Comment by annon Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 6:37 pm
I was reluctantly involved in doling out the loot for the last two big state capital feeding frenzies, and a bloated capital building program is usually Illinois state government at its worst. We were even paving church parking lots in some towns. The State of Illinois owns a lot of property and public infrastructure that legitimately needs money, and I am all for a bond program to fund these public infrastructure needs provided there is a real, honest revenue stream (read “dedicated tax proceeds”)and provided the debt can be retired in 10 years or less. I doubt if Madigan or anyone else in our self-serving legislature really sees it that way also but I am grateful that for whatever reason Madigan blocked the boondoggle cooked up by Blago and the other so-called leaders.

Comment by Skirmisher Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 7:06 pm
Six Degrees makes an excellent point. What kind of governance will we be getting when leaders run out of these so called creative funding options? What happened to leadership which provides appropriate service levels within current funding levels? Don’t tell me that tax rates have to be periodically increased because government gets increased funding from inflation at cuurent tax rates. Why can’t government live within its means?

Comment by Anonymous Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 8:47 pm
Dave, that’s a good point regarding Blago’s time. He has yet to come up with a capital plan before this year. Why is this year so important? Could it be that he’s wary of his legacy? Does he want to bring his approval ratings into the 20s? Or is he trying to get individual members to like him? Regardless, it was needed a lot earlier than May 31, 2008. I think the onus is on the governor to come up with such a plan, since he is the one who can kill the budget at the end. There would be no point in MJM or Emil Jones coming up with a plan that would eventually be cut up by the guv.

Comment by Team Sleep Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:24 pm
Maybe the debate over funding sources will have a good effect. If capital projects need to be done, and there is no magic solution from selling lake Michigan, then maybe people will start to ask how much flexibility there is in the operating budget.

Maybe a real funding crunch would be good for good government. When there’s lots of money, it’s easy to hide a few guys on the payroll. If every penny has to be scrutinized, then maybe oddball building leases, cement contracts, and payrolls will start to get the fine-tooth comb treatment they deserve.

Comment by Muskrat Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:27 pm
The drama yesterday sure made for an interesting day, and the machinations on the capital bill deservedly got all the attention of the people in the building and at the after session party. While the focus of the print reporters today was on the legislative pay raises and the unbalanced budget, the underreported story (to me anyway) was why the two democratic leaders were so eager to get a budget done on time when last year they were more than willing to go into overtime, and why they were willing to settle for this budget and all it’s flaws.

There’s been some speculation as to the motivation of President Jones, particularly here at Capitol Fax, namely that the Senate President just doesn’t want to be here all summer again and there’s the issue of the legislative pay raises and the number of session days that I won’t get into too much detail about since I believe that Rich has only provided that information to subscribers and I don’t want to pierce the veil of the Miller fortune. Also, there have been numerous reports that the President had a fractured caucus and another overtime would make that worse, whereas the past few days showed that the caucus was able to come together on the tough votes for the capital revenue once the budget was done. Jones seems to have some pretty good reasons to get a budget, any budget, done on time.

But what was the Speaker’s motivation? His chamber already voted down the pay raises, so that probably wasn’t it. He’s well known for his patience and he doesn’t seem to have the same aversion for being in Springfield and being in session that some of the others do, particularly the members with young families, and he’s generally been able to hold his caucus together by uniting them against whatever foolish new tactic the Governor has adopted. (That’s what was so amazing about what almost happened last night, the Governor and his allies were able to build a coalition that would have reportedly been enough to pass the four pieces of the capital bill had they made it to the floor and they didn’t screw it up.)

It’s well known that the Speaker is still really upset about the broken deal on last year’s budget and it was widely speculated that the Speaker would wait on doing anything until he could force President Jones to do something along the lines of an apology. But to the surprise of many, that didn’t happen, he allowed his top negotiators to work out a budget with the Senate and he passed it without getting any revenge on President Jones. It’s also a surprise that the Speaker would be willing to pass a budget that is so out of balance and go home only to rely on the Governor to balance it. It has been said that with the Governor’s willingness to spend money that isn’t there, that the Speaker saw himself as the adult in the equation and the protector of state finances. This budget is completely inconsistent with those principals.

So why would the Speaker be willing to negotiate and pass this budget, especially since everything laid out above would have normally led to the opposite result? Well all of this is a long way to get to the obvious remaining point, it’s an election year.

In 2006 Emil Jones took an aggressive approach and worked hard to increase his majority to a veto-proof supermajority while the Speaker just played defense and protected his incumbents. This year the Speaker has given indications that he plans to be aggressive and increase the size of his caucus, probably to counter the influence of Blagojevich/Hoffman/Jones/Cross. If you subscribe to the theory that he probably left some seats on the table in 2006 and now you have Barack Obama at the top of the ticket this November, the electoral math is probably pretty favorable for the House Dems.

At the national level the Republican brand is hurting and Illinois Democrats are banking on the dissatisfaction with Republican’s along with the Obama factor will outweigh any dissatisfaction with the situation in Springfield, which will get disproportionately less attention than the Obama race. This is probably true unless the Dems do something big to screw it up, like fail to pass a budget again.

The best hope for Leader Cross and the House Republicans is that there’s another overtime to allow them more ammunition for the message that “despite controlling the Governor’s office, every statewide office and being in the majority in both houses they can’t meet the basic needs of a functioning state government, maybe it’s time to give the other party a try.” If there wasn’t a budget in place by last night, or if something happens and the budget is no longer in effect and there’s an overtime session, why would Leader Cross put votes on a budget before election day? The budget could outlaw abortion, provide for school prayer, outlaw evolution, cut spending down to only paying for Republican legislative salaries and State Police and he’d still be better off not voting for it, since the Democrats would just repeal everything after the election anyway.

Speaker Madigan has shown time and again that only a fool would try to guess at his motivations, but I’ll take the bait and speculate that he was motivated to pass a budget so that Leader Cross wouldn’t have this leverage.

Which brings me to the prevalent rumor at the end of session party last night, that the Governor was unhappy with the unbalanced budget and would outright veto the budget rather than eat the fallout from angering the constituencies whose line items were reduced in a line item veto.

Prepare for utter chaos.

Now there does appear to be a scenario here where if things were handled correctly, this doesn’t have to result in a complete meltdown, but if last year taught us anything, it’s never count on the smart move.

If they do have to start over on a budget from scratch, doesn’t Leader Cross have too much leverage not to get whatever he wants? And in a year when he’s expected to take a pounding at the ballot box, could you blame him if what he wants is just to hold out on the budget and blame the Democrats who won’t even talk to each other? He’s always been a standup guy and maybe he will do the right thing for the state in return for a capital bill, but after witnessing and suffering from all of the irrational behavior of the others it must be awful tempting to take your turn.

Is the Governor prepared to veto the budget outright knowing that doing so is likely to hurt Democrats at the ballot box come November? The Senate Dems are not as exposed, only two of their freshman are on the ballot this time around, Holmes and Kotowski, with the rest being in the middle of four year terms. If he can hang on to at least one of the two (and Kotowski may be the hardest working person in America) he would still have his supermajority. So the Governor isn’t likely to hurt his allies in the Senate as much as he would the House Democrats who he’s not all that fond of. In the eyes of the Governor’s office, they have a better relationship with Leader Cross than with Speaker Madigan so they probably aren’t too worried about it.

But there’s an interesting caveat to that whole situation. Last year the Governor spent a lot of time and effort framing themselves as the good Democrats standing up for party values on healthcare and painting Speaker Madigan and his allies as phony Democrats in a privately admitted and thinly veiled attempt to lay the groundwork for the removal of Madigan as the State Party Chair. (look how that turned out!) The Governor feels that if a Democratic President controls the DNC then a Democratic Governor should control the State Party. But this may give the Speaker the opportunity to outflank the Governor and retake some of the holy land. It would take a fair amount of work, first the Speaker would have to establish as part of the widely understood conventional wisdom that a veto of the budget means Blagojevich wants to hurt Democrats at the ballot box in November. Second, he has to get enough people to care so that Blagojevich pays a political price for doing so. If you subscribe to the theory that the Governor still believes in his heart (regardless of whether or not he’s right) that he’s going to run again, he has to know that he’ll face primary competition stronger than Eisendrath was able to muster and on some level he’s going to want to protect against this strategy. For the many admired traits of the Speaker, playing the PR game has not been one of his team’s strengths so it would be fun to watch his team try to execute that strategy and it would be fun to see which partisan Democrat in a safe seat would be assigned the task of being out front on that meme. The other interesting element of that strategy is that despite being State Party Chair, the Speaker and his operation don’t have a working relationship with many of the more vocal elements of the Democratic activist community. Could this be the impetus for finally establishing a working relationship between the State Party and the activists? Maybe, but it would take some work, you would have to engage them where they care. If you tell the folks at Prairie State Blue that the Governor is going to do something to hurt the Speaker in November they’ll just yawn and go about their business, but if you tell them that the Governor is going to do something that will hurt their favored candidates like Daniel Biss this November, you could probably get their attention.

But let’s get back to the question of whether or not there really is any way out of this. I do think there’s a way, but don’t count on it - it relies on the Governor doing the smart thing first. If the Governor vetoes the budget without getting the subsequent agreement in place first, forget it, Leader Cross has too much leverage. If he simply uses the threat of a veto as leverage to work out a capital bill and if the Speaker wants to win seats more than he wants to prevent a capital bill then that may be enough leverage to work out an agreement on a balanced budget and a capital bill. You could potentially work out a deal to have the Speaker permit a capital bill so that Leader Cross would then put some votes on a budget deal and only then would the Governor veto the current budget. It’s a longshot, but it’s the only strategy I can see that doesn’t result in another complete meltdown. And even then, if the Speaker is willing to sacrifice some electoral pickups to ensure that the Governor doesn’t get a capital bill, then we’re guaranteed to have all hell break loose again this year and it will be a long summer.

I guess it’s time to hope for the best, but prepare for utter chaos. As Rich said, “it ain’t over yet.”

Comment by The Devil You Know Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 9:57 pm
You know, the sun came up this morning (it will tomorrow too), people all over the state went to church, had family meals, watched baseball on TV, and on and on. Only the poor wretches like us who post on this blog spent any time at all thinking about what the Governor and the GA did or didn’t do yesterday.

There’s not going to be any great rebellion among voters. If they weren’t concerned by now, they’re never gonna be. Most legislators are going to be re-elected, the Gov’s poll numbers aren’t going to plummet.

Remember this about the voters. They don’t care about this silliness as much as we do. They don’t know as much as us (and from some of our pitiful posts, we don’t really know much, do we?), and they aren’t yearning to learn more.

Bill, the sky fell years and years ago, and nobody noticed, just like nobody noticed yesterday.

Comment by steve schnorf Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:15 pm
“Don’t tell me that tax rates have to be periodically increased because government gets increased funding from inflation at cuurent tax rates. Why can’t government live within its means?”

Several reasons: 1) some costs increase faster than inflation (like health care); 2)when the state builds things, it incurs new costs for maintenance; 3)for years, the state has been spending more than it takes in and putting off costs (by not giving pay raises, not performing maintenance, paying bills late, putting off payments into pension systems, etc.), and those cost more and more each year they are put off; 4) new laws create new costs in the form of enforcement agencies (which need space and personnel), prisons, etc.; 5) the citizens of the state keep asking for more of everything and their wishes are granted while the bills are put off; 6) we use all kinds of expensive technology which never existed before; 7) the tax base is constantly shifting (for example, from manufacturing to service), but the structure of the taxing system has not shifted likewise; and the list goes on…

Some of the state’s costs could be accommodated by natural increases in taxes, but many cannot. I suppose this then leads to a condemnation of “Big Government,” but all those expensive programs and agencies exist at our request. If you disagree, try to imagine the state with only the roads and buildings and prisons and education system (etc.) we had in 1970 or 1950 or 1900. We would not be happy without all of our new roads, etc. so we should expect to pay more.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:27 pm
I guess my thought would be is they got it done in large part to help Sen. Obama.

If Illinois has another summer of fun, how is it going to reflect on a US Senator who spent some time down in Springfield. Think of sort of the inverse of the Mass. Miricle. It wouldn’t be too hard to push the ‘look how Illinois works, is that what you want for America?’ It also frees up state sentaors to go around the country saying how great Sen. Obama is. If he ends up president it is good for everyone who helps in some way shape or form.

OneMan

Comment by OneMan Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 10:51 pm
In your soliloquy you overlooked one issue that may have factored into the Speaker’s calculus. You analysis fails to contemplate:

1. A comprehensive Rezko conviction.
2. An indictment of the Governor
3. Commencement of Impeachment Proceedings against the Governor.

Comment by The Devil is not in your Details Sunday, Jun 1, 08 @ 11:49 pm
I heard the Speaker held a long post session press conf, anyone know where to get the audio?

Comment by Lotta Liaison Monday, Jun 2, 08 @ 1:11 am
“Maybe a real funding crunch would be good for good government. When there’s lots of money, it’s easy to hide a few guys on the payroll. If every penny has to be scrutinized, then maybe oddball building leases, cement contracts, and payrolls will start to get the fine-tooth comb treatment they deserve.”

Wishful thinking.
If every penny has to be scrutinized, there’s less money for the oversight. Try auditing with no auditors.. and.. In a $60Bn budget, there’s plenty of room to hide people on payroll and give out sweetheart contracts and pawn it off as rounding errors.
We’ve been in a ‘real funding crunch’ for a few years now, and the ONE side effect it hasn’t brought with it is ‘good government’; quite the opposite in fact…

Comment by Frank Sobotka Monday, Jun 2, 08 @ 2:01 am