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Halvorson claims big lead * UPDATED x1 *

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* Sen. Debbie Halvorson has a new poll that she claims shows her with an 11 point lead over Republican Martin Ozinga in the 11th Congressional District…

According to results of the poll of 500 likely voters, when asked how they would vote today, she was winning 43 percent to 32 percent for Ozinga with [Green Party candidate[ Wallace winning 6 percent. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.

Undecided voters, who made up the remaining 18 percent, said they generally favored a Democrat over a Republican by 33 percent to 19 percent. A summary of the poll by Halvorson’s firm, Anzalone Liszt Research, said when respondents heard “basic information” about her and Ozinga, her support increased to a 50-39 percent advantage. […]

The poll contended respondents broke Democratic 41 percent to 35 percent Republican in party self-identification, though Sere said that contradicts voting patterns in the district. George W. Bush won the district by 53-46 percent over Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., in 2004 and Weller won by 55-45 percent in 2006 over Democratic candidate John Pavich.

Still, the poll found Bush unpopular, with just 36 percent giving him a favorable rating. Congressional Republicans got a 40 percent unfavorable rating compared to 49 percent favorable for congressional Democrats.

It also found the economy was the top concern of an outright majority, 52 percent of respondents. Among voters who said the economy was their top or second most important issue, Halvorson led by 52 percent to 21 percent for Ozinga.

* Ozinga’s campaign criticized Halvorson for not releasing more numbers, including favorable ratings, and added…

“It’s early in the race. When voters learn Debbie Halvorson has used her position in the state Senate to do little more than be a rubber stamp for (Democratic Gov.) Rod Blagojevich, they will run from her faster than she is running from her own record,” he said.

*** UPDATE *** An e-mail from the Ozinga campaign…

Shouldn’t Senate Majority Leader Halvorson be leading by more than 11 points against someone who was a private citizen two months ago?

She’s been in this race for several months - Marty’s been in it for several weeks.

She’s been an elected official in this district for 15 years.

She’s arguably the most powerful woman in Illinois.

She’s the quasi-incumbent in this race.

So the fact that she’s well under 50 percent with all of those initial advantages - and before our campaign has spent one dime on paid media - makes me question why she released these numbers as if they were good news.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 11:55 am

Comments

And when people learn how neck deep Ozinga is into pay to play in Chicago and exploitiing minority loop holes in city contracting they will flee him faster then a groan follows a tired running metaphor.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:00 pm
I think both candidates have plenty of upside and downside. Ozinga has a lot of ground to make up and splaining to do, but everyone sees the red and white trucks in the east half of the district. Deb is popular in her own district but is yoked with an unpopular state government leadership.

BTW, has there been a Jerry Weller sighting in the last 6 months?

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:06 pm
It’s early, but the stain of 8 Bush Years is really going to hurt Ozinga, Kirk and possibly even Manzullo. Greenberg has no chance, either, so the GOP might bat the Mendoza line.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:15 pm
I thought Debbie would be doing better than that. What were Blago’s numbers there??

Comment by Bi-Partisan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:27 pm
Team Sleep - how in the world do you connect Bush to Ozinga?? Ozinga is new blood. However, Halverson to Blago - much more realistic and factual, even as much as this site hates to point it out.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:32 pm
===how in the world do you connect Bush to Ozinga?? ===

Iraq.

Have you not been paying attention to all those special elections?

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:33 pm
Halvorson’s poll and it’s press release is supposed to paint a rosey scenario.

She will need these cutesy news stories. She will be asked about her relationships with Emil Jones, the GA salary increases, her stonewalling on ethics reform, her connections to Rod Blagojevich, and much more.

I don’t believe the polls are wrong, but that they are biased. I’d knock 5% off all the numbers for a more realistic take on the situation as of the end of May, 2008. When is the election? Oh, it is still a long way away and Ozinga hasn’t really started yet.

She will look back fondly on these numbers and wish she could buy poll numbers like that again this August.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:34 pm
vanilla man sure writes a lot like rich miller.
someone should ask debbie when she last spoke to the governor. I’ll bet it hasn’t been in the last 6 months.

Comment by truth squad Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:44 pm
A year ago I posted numerous times that Iraq will not be the issue for the 2008 election the Democrats hoped it would be. Back then all the Democrats were banking on bad news from Iraq to propel them to victory in 2008.

Now they are claiming the economy will do it. But the economy grew last month, not shrink. There has not been a recession. The housing issue was supposed to work for the Democrats, but that now looks so 2007.

But the Democrats are still pounding the anti-Bush drum. They are doing a great Chicken Little impersonation. OK - that is how politics is played. But don’t expect the payback this tactic would have gotten you in November 2007 this November 2008.

Blagojevich is still governor even after Bush is gone. He is a more relevant political issue for Halvorson than Bush is for Ozinga.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:46 pm
===vanilla man sure writes a lot like rich miller.===

Truth Squad, insane posts like that could get you locked up in a mental institution.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:46 pm
alongside the Gov

Comment by Kevin Fanning Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:49 pm
I admire Mr. Miller, and if I write as he does, then I am quite humbled.

But I am no Rich Miller.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:50 pm
And I am no VanillaMan.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:51 pm
Debbie will crush this guy in November, but these numbers are a little shakey….Lucky she is rid of SPI, Jones and Blaggo — at least for now.

P.S. Rich does not work as hard as the VMan.

PPS I liked the item about Blaggo’s endorsement of Schock . That should be a thick noose around Mr. Fabulous’ sweet young neck.

Comment by Peotone Pal Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:52 pm
did we hit a nerve v.m.?

Comment by truth squad Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:53 pm
TS, if this is how the Halvorson campaign is gonna play things in comments from now on, then you can expect some pretty rough treatment. Savvy? Don’t be a moron. I don’t have time to post as somebody else. I already comment too much.

Last warning, idiot.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 12:55 pm
===how in the world do you connect Bush to Ozinga?? ===

Iraq.

What, did Ozinga sell concrete to Halliburton or something? He is a newbie who has no pro-war congressional voting record to defend, much like Deb. The generic “R” probably affects him a little, but unless he goes into a goofy hawk mode, he’s probably sitting about as well as could be expected for someone of his party. Best to play up the “I Am Not a Politician”, and listen to what potential voters are telling him about sending most of the boys & gals home.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:01 pm
VM=Rich
roflmao

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:04 pm
You would think, Bill, that these people would be smarter than that. Apparently not.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:05 pm
No it’s true. Vanilla Man is Rich’s alter-ego. I’ve seen him post on it before.

Comment by Kevin Fanning Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:07 pm
Feed the tinfoil hatters.

This is why nobody ever remembers John Adams. Bad jokes.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:08 pm
–did we hit a nerve v.m.?–

Yes you did because I prefer truth to hogwash.
I know politics is hogwash and those poll numbers seem wet, soapy, and I think I smell something like a living pork product in those bloated numbers.

Like c’mon - who is going to swallow those poll numbers without questioning it? No one I know. This presser polished these numbers to maximum shine just as they were paid to do. I’m not going to throw all their work out, but I’m not going to use them as some kind of map to guide my thinking regarding this race. Ozinga just got started, while Halvorson been on the ground for months so she still has the advantage.

Both Halvorson and Ozinga are class acts. I hope their campaigns will be as classy as they are, even though many of their partisan supporters will not be. With all the hired guns drifting around these campaigns I hope that both of them can survive the election without becoming a drive-by casualty.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:08 pm
lol

Comment by Kevin Fanning Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:09 pm
When did Blago endorse Schock?

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:23 pm
Polls aside, I think this Congressional race will be the only game in town this November. The national GOP, specifically Rove and Boehner, have been beating Oberweis like a rented mule for being a “bad candidate,” so he’s on his own.

Ozinga appears to have the ability to raise some money, and that should keep him going for a GOP last stand.

Expect them both to go negative early and often with Halvorsen pounding Ozinga on Bush, the war, the economy, and contracts, and Ozinga hanging Jones, the pay raise and Blago scandals around her neck.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:28 pm
==She’s arguably the most powerful woman in Illinois.==

Don’t tell that to Lisa Madigan.

Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:28 pm
“PPS I liked the item about Blaggo’s endorsement of Schock . That should be a thick noose around Mr. Fabulous’ sweet young neck.”

Seriously?

Comment by Greg Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:30 pm
Man, this thread has gotten funny since I went to lunch.

VM as Rich’s alter ego…Rich’s partisan Republican, purple-prosey, poll-questioning alter ego…

Um, ok.

VM, the problem with your theories is that 70% of Americans think the war in Iraq is being handled badly, and was a bad idea. They have more favorable views of the Democratic Party than the GOP. And 80% think the economy’s in the toilet -a number not likely to be improved upon in the 11th CD (your sunny report of the economy notwithstanding) (pollingreport.com).

What’s more, I know you pay attention to campaign politics. Why on earth would a campaign pay a pollster to skew a poll for them? The poll is a tool to gauge the campaign’s strengths and weaknesses. A skewed poll does a campaign absolutely no good. If the numbers were bad, more likely they simply wouldn’t have released them.

Now, a small part of your argument is: ‘it’s June and neither candidate has spent any serious money.’ IMO, that’s a legit argument.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:42 pm
===Why on earth would a campaign pay a pollster to skew a poll for them? ===

To raise money.

Also, there used to be a couple of guys around who would give you any poll result you wanted for a price.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:45 pm
used to be?

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:50 pm
“To raise money.”

Potentially. But the 11th is one of the top targets in the country - and the Halvorson camp seems to have raised a fair amount of cash. And the pollster is legit.

“Also, there used to be a couple of guys around who would give you any poll result you wanted for a price.”

THAT, I do not doubt.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:51 pm
What Bill said.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:52 pm
I find it amusing that a guy claiming that 80% of this and 70% of that, (obvious bloating of actual numbers), wants to claim that Halvorson’s poll is legit and that pollsters aren’t going to jiggle the numbers, questions and summaries for press releases in order to support the arguments for the candidate signing their checks.

Laughable, and wrong.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 1:57 pm
pollingreport.com

Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:02 pm
there used to be a couple of guys around who would give you any poll result you wanted for a price.

Entrepreneurial opportunity, I see.

I like the fact that Ozinga isn’t just sitting back and taking it. An attitude that more GOP’s should take. Don’t wait for something good to happen, MAKE it happen!

Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:14 pm
this poll debate reminds me of a line in a currently running commercial, the geist of which is: “90% of statistics can be made to say anything; 50% of the time. “

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:25 pm
As to Ozinga’s reply, I do not think many voters outside of Deb’s district had heard of her prior to seeing her name on the ballot this spring. I mean really, most people don’t even know their own legislators, let alone the name of the State Senate Majority Leader and Chair of the Rules Committee, impressive though the position may be.

I appreciate Ozinga’s high opinion of the electorate, but lack of understanding the basics of the voting population is appalling.

Likewise, when they try to link Deb to Emil Jones, they don’t seem to get that while most folks know who Blagojevic is, few recognize Jones. I would guess if they did a job approval poll for Jones most replies would be “Huh? Who?”

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:44 pm
You can tie any Republican to Bush. Period. The same would have gone for several Democrats had Hillary won the Dem primary; all of her negative baggage would have carried down the ladder, perhaps even to county board and city elections.

Look at what happened in 2006. The Dems ran a slate of fairly decent candidates nationwide and kicked the GOP’s teeth in. Here in Illinois several competent GOP candidates were easily defeated, and I guarantee that a large swath of voters assumed being a Republican equalled being in step with Bush, Cheney, Rove, Rummy, etc.

So I don’t think it’s a stretch Ozinga would be tied at the hip to Bush.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:46 pm
You can tie any Republican to Bush. Period.

True, and avoiding that will be a big challenge for McCain. BUT that is a two way street.

You can tie any and all Statehouse Dems to Rod B. Notice he didn’t mention Jones, he tied her to Gov. B.

Comment by Pat collins Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:51 pm
I’m a little late to the party and didn’t have time to read all the posts. I stopped at the VM RM exchange about who is who and who writes like who and laughed pretty hard.

OK…..my quick take is after a bio read both candidates increased by 7 points. Don’t know if this point was made already, but if you are going to spout poll numbers the other guy should go down after the bio read not track right along with “you” the candidate releasing the numbers.

Comment by Mark Johnson Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:53 pm
Would Democrats have lost seats if Republicans tied them to Clinton in 2000?
Would Republicans have lost seats if Democrats tied them to Reagan in 1988?
Would Republicans have lost seats if Democrats tied them to Eisenhower in 1960?

Of course not. It won’t matter this year either.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:56 pm
You’re missing the point. It’s not just W, it’s Iraq;

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 2:59 pm
–Still, the poll found Bush unpopular, with just 36 percent giving him a favorable rating. Congressional Republicans got a 40 percent unfavorable rating compared to 49 percent favorable for congressional Democrats.

It also found the economy was the top concern of an outright majority, 52 percent of respondents. Among voters who said the economy was their top or second most important issue, Halvorson led by 52 percent to 21 percent for Ozinga.–

What about Iraq?

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 3:07 pm
Pat Collins, I disagree. Most people view Rod B as seperate from the Dem party. His conflict with madigan and others coupled with his goofy conduct has created an insualting effect. Most people dismiss the Gov as unique and do not tie him to the dems the way Ryan and and now Bush are being tied to the repubs.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 3:12 pm
The GOP should have found someone to run against Bush in 2004. That shortsighted maneuver will cost them the 2006, 2008 and 2010 Congressional elections as well as this year’s presidential race. As gas remains steady and as the Iraq War plods along, we’re in a bad way.

The GOP also did themselves a huge disservice in 2005 and 2006 by not actively moving away from Bush and his policies. By not doing so, spending grew astronomically; Katrina happened; the wars began looking like quagmires; and reports of corruption/cronyism grew rampant. Instead, people like Denny Hastert, Roy Blunt and Tom DeLay stood firm and cost the GOP both houses. And for what?

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 3:23 pm
“the other guy should go down after the bio read”

Mark, I disagree.

First, that is a good indication that the poll is NOT skewed to favor Halvorson

Beyond that, a good, straight-up poll will present both candidates in the way they will present themselves to voters, to get an even read.

Ozinga has a good bio. One would expect his numbers to increase once he is introduced to voters -who probably don’t know either candidate particularly well.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 3:24 pm
Halvorson doesn’t work with Madigan. She works with Jones, Blagojevich’s governmental partner. She is Majority Leader because she does what Jones and Blagojevich wants. This isn’t speculation either.

Take ethics reform. She doesn’t do anything until she runs for office. It sat on her desk as the Rules Committee Chair for over a year. Blagojevich and Jones didn’t want it, but she was now forced to pass it through because she is running for office. Now it sits at Blagojevich’s desk.

Take the recall. As head of the Rules Committee she voted to allow the bill to be hijacked by an opponent of recall. While she claims she supported it, she actions prove otherwise. Later, she makes a motion to adjorn the session before the GOP makes a motion to bring the House bill before the Senate for a vote. She helped kill it twice.

Why? Because she is, and was, a partner with Blagojevich and Jones.

It is easy to tie her to Blagojevich because until she announced her run for Congress, she was his Senate Leader and Jones their partner.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 3:27 pm
–That shortsighted maneuver will cost them the 2006, 2008 and 2010 Congressional elections as well as this year’s presidential race. As gas remains steady and as the Iraq War plods along, we’re in a bad way. –

Not as bad as that analogy. Since your analogy regarding today’s Iraq completely wrong, your inability to forecast should be called into question. You’ve got a ex-president losing elections?

By your logic Carter lost the 2000 election for Gore, just like he lost the 1980, 1984, 1988, and Clinton losing the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, and the 1994, 1996, 2000, 2002, and 2004 congressional ones.

That’s a tad nuts, isn’t it?

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 3:38 pm
from what i hear, the fox network already the “are you smarter than an ILGOPer” in the works…true u would think DH would be closer to that 50% number, but once she starts to tell people who ozinga is, i would imagine she climbs…i do think u could see a situation like the 06 gub election, where on election day both candidates are universally hated…

Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 4:16 pm
Can I just point out that Wallace’s poll numbers are excellent for this early in the race, especially considering what he has spent in contrast to the Republican and Democrat? Green candidates’ numbers start out low, but they tend to steadily increase as more people learn about the candidates (look to the Whitney campaign for some precedent.) Jason is already far ahead of the game.

Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 4:38 pm
Can I also point out that, according to this poll, there is not yet a MAJORITY supporting any of the candidates. In Halvorson’s case, 57% of those polled–the majority–are voting for someone other than her. I think we need to look at what Halvorson is doing, as a member of the Illinois General Assembly, to replace our system of plurality elections, with majority elections, using something like Instant Runoff Voting.

Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 4:42 pm
I’m sure all those Republicans energized by the McCain candidacy will put Ozinga over the top.

That and the infusion of NRCC money he’ll get in the final weeks of the election

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 4:59 pm
Carl — good points.

Comment by Rob_N Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 5:31 pm
[…] According to the poll Democratic State Senator Debbie Halvorson has an 11 point lead over GOP businessman Martin Ozinga. While the questions weren’t released, in a district that’s been Republican for a long, long time that strikes me as impressive. […]

Pingback by WurfWhile - Halvorson Campaign Poll Says She’s Beating Ozinga In 11th Congressional Race Tuesday, Jun 3, 08 @ 11:29 pm
I don’t know where my earlier post replying to Vanilla went… (If it shows up feel free to delete this one or that, Rich.)

…Vanilla, Iraq will be an issue. Even if it’s not front and center, 2/3rds of Americans think the war was a mistake and 70% think we need to get out. (pollster.com Quinnipiac University poll from May 2008)

W was and is central to Iraq. McCain is going to continue that policy. (Where he has differed has only been on matters of quantity — he has wanted to send more troops to Iraq than W…)

To date, I cannot find any info from the Ozinga campaign on Iraq. Not one thing. They don’t even have any positions on the military or national security (though there is one press release about Ozinga Bros. Concrete participating in a vets-to-work program).

Why not stake out a position? For staying or for strategic withdrawal? For the surge or against it? For continued bribes and payoffs to insurgents (the real reason the “surge” appears to work) or against them?

But instead Ozinga is silent on the issue that underlines everything in 2008. And if you really don’t believe there is an Iraq patina on every race this cycle just ask “Congressmen” Jim Oberweis, Woody Jenkins and Greg Davis…

That said, even your ‘every race is local’ attacks of “Blagojevich” and “Emil” don’t hold water since Ozinga has given thousands of dollars to Gov. Pay-to-play — as well as being involved in questionable ‘minority-owned’ contracts. This on top of Ozinga’s desire to succeed his fellow Republican, Rep. Jerry “Most Corrupt Members of Congress” Weller.

And, as Nyberg noted, McCain isn’t exactly a stellar base rallyer and the NRCC doesn’t have any cash to offer.

Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, Jun 4, 08 @ 12:40 am
While you say that Iraq will be an issue, the polls for Halvorson don’t show a majority voting for her, and Ozinga doesn’t mention Iraq. So what makes you think it will be a deciding issue in November? The poll numbers you claim support your political position are bloated and old. Be prepared for a new political reality - and soon. That is why Obama just dithered on Iraq last night. He is trying to weazel out of his 2007 political stands.

Iraq will not be the deciding issue. The Surge has been successful so Obama and the Democrats don’t want to admit that McCain was right, and McCain doesn’t want to bring it up because the polls are not yet reflecting any benefits either.

Obama bashes the idea of keeping a military presence there, but doesn’t have a better idea. He wants the troops out, but is already pulling back on when or how he will do that. He is already trying to repaint himself in order to politically benefit from the good news coming out of Iraq at this time.

Frankly, what does he know? He has been too busy running for president or writing one of his autobiographies to even go to Iraq. He is weak on this issue, so he will be trying to move on.

As long as Iraq is not providing a sufficient payback on a political position, it will not be an issue.

And no one - no one can top Jefferson of Louisiana with his freezer full of cash. Don’t even insult another Congressperson by claiming they approach Jefferson’s corruption legacy! Your Weller comment is false, emotional and slanderous.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 4, 08 @ 9:11 am
VM, Carter’s flop of a presidency directly or indirectly cost the Dems three consecutive presidential elections and the U.S. Senate from 1981-1987. The House, of course, remained in Dem hands.

Bush’s war and legacy will keep the House out of GOP hands for at least two more terms. And it doesn’t matter what happens now in Iraq: 2005 and 2006 weren’t great years, and the electorate put the Dems back in power - which makes it very difficult for the GOP to take back the House, especially with all of the retirements and the GOP’s track record of losing special elections.

Iraq will be an issue more so with Congressional districts and Senate seats. Nationally, the economy will play more into the presidential election. But I think people in tight races can use Iraq as a standby.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jun 4, 08 @ 11:32 am
You know, if the war in Iraq is going to be a big issue in this race, then Jason Wallace has the advantage. He’s a veteran of the current conflict and opposes the continued occupation of Iraq.

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Jun 4, 08 @ 2:57 pm
Rob_N’s comment on Weller was not false, emotional or slanderous. It was from CREW’s list of the 22 most corrupt members of Congress, I believe (and of course Jefferson was on the list).

And slander refers to defamation that is spoken.

Comment by JonShibleyFan Wednesday, Jun 4, 08 @ 5:50 pm