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Study attempts to bust some Illinois population myths

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Illinois

Contrary to concerns about an exodus of residents due to high taxes, crime and other factors, researchers report that the state has made noticeable gains in certain areas.

“Reports of Illinois’ population decline have been greatly exaggerated,” researcher Frank Manzo IV told the Tribune. “… Data show the Illinois population has been stable, with the Chicago area adding residents and taxpayers.” […]

The analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Illinois Department of Revenue was conducted by researchers at the Illinois Economic Policy Institute and the Project for Middle Class Renewal at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. […]

The new analysis shows that people who moved out of Illinois were younger, more likely to be Black or from downstate, less likely to be Hispanic, and have lower incomes. Nearly 100,000 African Americans left Illinois. Those losses were largely offset by growth in the Chicago area and immigrants from abroad, the report found. […]

From 2013 to 2022, Illinois saw significant growth in its number of higher-paid taxpayers, including an 52% increase in those earning $100,000 to $500,000 per year, and an 80% surge in taxpayers earning more than $500,000 per year.

* ILEPI…

In their study, ILEPI and PMCR researchers first used Illinois Department of Revenue tax statistics from 2010 to 2020 to note that Illinois added more than 200,000 taxpayers last decade, an increase of 4%. The tax base grew in the Chicago area while it declined Downstate. The number of tax filers with high incomes grew substantially, as Illinois became a $1 trillion economy: Taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes above $100,000 per year grew by more than 50% over the decade, including an increase of 80% among those earning more than $500,000 annually. Meanwhile, the number of families claiming Earned Income Credit (EIC) government benefits decreased 11% over the decade.

ILEPI and PMCR researchers then used Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement survey data from 2013 through 2022. In this survey, the Census Bureau asks U.S. residents whether they have changed residences in the past year, the state of previous residence for those who moved, and their primary reason for moving.

People who moved into Illinois were better educated and more likely to arrive for college than those who moved out. They were also younger on average than people who have stayed in Illinois. Two-in-five movers cite job-related circumstances as their top reason for moving. Additionally, the data indicated that while Illinois lost residents to “net domestic migration,” or people moving within the United States, these losses were almost entirely offset by immigrants coming to Illinois from abroad.

While outmigrants were statistically more likely to be Black or African American, people moving into Illinois and people who stay in Illinois were disproportionately more likely to be Hispanic or Latinx.

Finally, the data showed that people who stay in Illinois have better socioeconomic outcomes than all migrants. Stayers averaged 16% higher annual household incomes than those who have left Illinois, were more likely to be married, and had homeownership rates of 70%—more than double the rate of those who left the state (30%).

The data revealed that people who have left Illinois tended to be younger males with lower incomes than those who chose to stay. Only 30% of those who left became homeowners within their first year in their new states, and 14% reported relying on Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) food stamp assistance.

The full report is here.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:08 am

Comments

= Contrary to concerns about an exodus of residents due to high taxes, crime and other factors, researchers report that the state has made noticeable gains in certain areas. =

“Nevertheless, we will continue to express those concerns on our editorial page.”

Comment by JoanP Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:14 am
I will save everyone the time….

This info is patently false. It was paid for by Illinois Economic Policy Institute which is trade union funded and used select information to come to the conclusion they wanted. https://www.causeiq.com/organizations/illinois-economic-policy-institute,463360695/

Moreover, I would assume everyone here is from IL so use your own surroundings to see if there are more or less people. Have your family or friends left recently? Well that might be a good clue. Further, you can use bellweathers like moving companies who can see the trend of people moving to and from like in this survey https://www.illinoispolicy.org/survey-illinois-2nd-in-u-s-for-residents-leaving/#:~:text=Illinois%20ranked%20second%20in%20the,were%20headed%20into%20the%20state.

OR you can go right to the source and see what the IRS itself has to say about people filing taxes in the state. Are there more or less? https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/article_b465131a-dc5c-11ec-9f87-7ff5cb877de3.html

This entire post was a shill. Use your brains…

Comment by M B Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:30 am
===I will save everyone the time….===

Ok…

===Moreover, I would assume everyone here is from IL so use your own surroundings to see if there are more or less people. Have your family or friends left recently?==

And the “pièce de résistance”… a Center Square cite.

You saved me loads of time. lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:33 am
=== Moreover, I would assume everyone here is from IL so use your own surroundings to see if there are more or less people ===

I’m gonna go ahead and trust research based on the final Census numbers over your suggested “vibes” methodology.

I also have to note the irony of opposing “paid” “shills” who “come to the conclusions they wanted” while also citing Illinois Policy and The Center Square. Who funds those organizations again?

Comment by vern Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:36 am
“This entire post was a shill.”

And for whom are you shilling?

“Use your brains”

What I like about the CapFax are the informed, thoughtful, and thinking commenters who generally engage their brain before shifting their fingers into gear.

Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:37 am
“This entire post was a shill,” says the actual shill.

Every attack is a confession for you people.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:42 am
= Have your family or friends left recently?=

No.

But a nice family moved here from Kentucky that I recently met. So I must assume the state of Kentucky is failing and Illinois is now booming.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:43 am
Also, your IP address is so thoroughly cloaked that it doesn’t even come up on a Google search.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:46 am
Re: M B

You claim the entire post is a shill, but also try to cite the IPI as a legitimate source.

Pot, meet kettle

Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:47 am
so use your own surroundings to see if there are more or less people.

Three houses on my street got snapped up after being on the market for less than two weeks. Population boom: confirmed

Comment by The Truth Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:48 am
= Have your family or friends left recently? =

One. And it was nothing to do with crime or high taxes. (In fact, the area she moved to is more expensive than where she was living in Illinois.) She just wanted to be closer to her kids and grandkids.

Comment by JoanP Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:51 am
“use your own surroundings to see if there are more or less people.”

Ignore statewide data. Use personal individual geographically limited anecdotes instead to arrive at conclusions.

Hard pass on that, thanks though.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:51 am
“From 2013 to 2022, Illinois saw significant growth in its number of higher-paid taxpayers”

During the time Rauner came to be politically and the phony propaganda about how Democrats, unions and trial lawyers were killing wealth and driving people out of state.

Will stick with the revised Census numbers and not the furious Exodus spin the right is always concocting. It’s the final refuge of their agenda, and they ain’t letting go.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:53 am
==Further, you can use the bellwethers like moving companies who can see the trend of people moving to and from like in this survey==

That’s what they used from 2010-2020 and that worked out great, right?

Comment by 48th Ward Heel Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:55 am
I will say that Capitol Fax is one of the very few places where I still read the comments

Comment by frayed cat Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:57 am
Housing housing housing. Need more housing in the collars and downstate. Also making all CTA lines 24/7 would mean a population rise along non red/blue lines.

Comment by Lake Villa Township Pc Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:01 am
Recently drove through the Nashville Metro area.

The old saying about ten pounds of **** in a five pound bag came to mind.

If that’s growth, keep it.

Comment by Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:11 am
So why is Rich checking IP addresses? Not the first time he has done that. Do other bloggers check IP addresses? To the point of the story. If Illinois did not lose population, how did they lose 2 congressional seats?

Comment by smilepolitely Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:18 am
Good news? This does not fit the narrative. Time to spin.

Comment by levivotedforjudy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:22 am
===So why is Rich checking IP addresses?===

Because he is wise to do so.

Comment by H-W Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:23 am
I’ll go here…

===how did they lose 2 congressional seats?===

Whatever YOU do, don’t look at OH, PA, NY, MI…

The past 30-40 years… 3 and 4 censuses… these states are losing seats. Even “Ruby Red Ohio”

Your blank stare and silly grin can’t comprehend this, I bet, because all this has happened in the migration south, it ain’t about Trump, but has been about weather and being able to withstand heat.

As for checking IPs, it’s his house, we’re all guests.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:23 am
=This info is patently false. It was paid for by Illinois Economic Policy Institute which is trade union funded and used select information to come to the conclusion they wanted.=

So very Maga of you, attack the source.

=Have your family or friends left recently?=

No none. And, since you are citing anecdotal evidence as hard data I will posit this… have you tried to buy a house lately like in the past few years? Good luck. Even in rural Illinois houses are still moving quickly.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:24 am
===how did they lose 2 congressional seats? ===

Two reasons. One is the miscount of the population that has been since corrected.

Second is the growth of other states (IL had zero population growth, while few others had positive population growth.

Next question?

Comment by H-W Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:25 am
===If Illinois did not lose population, how did they lose 2 congressional seats?===

I’ll type this slowly for you: because other states gained more population (Texas, Florida, et al). Apportionment changes as the relative population changes. Unless we add new members of Congress, it will continue this way.

Also, “et al” is a Latin abbreviation that means “and others.”

Finally, any responsible blog moderator checks IP addresses. Sock puppetry is expressly forbidden on this site. And most of us who come here are grateful that Rich’s blog is well-moderated.

This isn’t Facebook.

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:27 am
Smile, Because other states grew in population.

Comment by very old soil Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:31 am
Using my own geographical area I would say IL is gaining residents! Houses go very quickly in the south west burbs.
I know one guy who left. He is a snow boarder and he moved to Denver.

In my hometown in central IL it’s different. That town has been losing population since the 90s though. And it is aging. But that has more to do with the loss of factories in the 80s & 90s than anything more recent.

Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:31 am
Apportionment of seats is taking into account the country having 435 seats, the population divided equally (as close as mathematically possible) and then those numbers in states fitting that criteria into actual seats.

With that blank stare and silly grin, think on this.

A stagnant population growth as the country grows in population, will those states keep all the seats they had?

Again, ask OH, PA, NY, MI… for openers.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:35 am
Next few years will be interesting, population wise, if summers continue to break heat records.

AC can only do so much, and if you can’t go outside while the sun is shining, what’s the point?

Comment by Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:37 am
M B - Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 10:30 am wrote ” I will save everyone some time”, basically saying don’t read this article because it’s from a source they don’t like, but then turns around and tries to get Cap Fax readers to waste their time reading their opinion-based articles to sell us the Illinois Policy Institute and Center Square slanted point of view /smh

Comment by Roadiepig Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:41 am
I just want to second frayedcat in that I have am amazed by the awareness, intelligence and thoughtfulness of many commenters here and feel that although I am not smart, I do believe they have made me smarter by reading what they add to the many items Rich and Isabelle have shared with us.

Comment by Blitz Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:47 am
===Have your family or friends left recently?===

LOL. Yes, but now that they have experienced the wonder that is Texas, they are planning to come back. The job was nice and paid well, but the state turned out to be less hospitable and is getting worse each time their legislature meets or governor speaks. By your standards, that makes Texas a failing state.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:52 am
===So why is Rich checking IP addresses?

LOL. Because that’s how you can tell if it is coming from a campaign or other interested party. Generally that’s fine, but if they are purposely avoiding being identified while spreading their own stuff, it’s good for other commenters. And yes, other blogs do it all the time if they monitor comments.

—If Illinois did not lose population, how did they lose 2 congressional seats?

We’ve lost 10 since 1943. Have we been losing population that whole time?

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 11:56 am
“have you tried to buy a house lately like in the past few years? Good luck. Even in rural Illinois houses are still moving quickly.”

I can second this. On the edge of civilization near Orchard Road, my wife and I put in many solid offers that were rejected for better ones. There is still high demand for housing at the edge of suburbia.

Comment by Techie Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:27 pm
The reality is Illinois lost a congressional seat. So did NY, OH, PA, MI, CA, WV. And states that gained were TX 2, FL, CO, MT, NC, OR

To say we lost people due to weather is as remedial as saying look around and see if people are leaving. It doesn’t take into account WI, MN, IN, IA, and NE still maintaining their congressional seats. There is far more nuance to population loss and gain. If it was about weather why would CO gain a seat, it’s colder, and has less water, Deion Sanders just got there this year.

Texas has continually grown due to many factors, including one being a constant flow of immigrants coming across its borders.
Illinois should look towards this migrant crisis as an opportunity to help repopulate downstate rural communities that need farm and manufacturing workers. As well as take advantage of adding enough people to the new roles that by 2030 census we may have increased back up to 18 congressional seats.

Comment by Frida's boss Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:29 pm
I know multiple people who moved to Florida and NOW have moved back to IL. More expensive in Florida and a lot less to the liking.

Comment by appears Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:30 pm
=== is fine with his IP address being potentially sold, then go for it.===

I’d have greater worries than Rich selling my IP, lol

You’re adorable.

Indiana?

In 1980, they had 11

They now have … 9

They’re going the wrong way, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:39 pm
==IP address being potentially sold==

Nobody is selling your IP address you dolt.

And you aren’t a serious person.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:41 pm
LOL

Nobody is selling IP addresses here. Go soak your head.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:41 pm
===But if I was a subscriber, I would be furious that my IP address could be sold or somehow put out on the internet so that “bad actors” could harass me.

What are you even talking about? Any web site you go to registers your IP address. That doesn’t mean it’s being sold or whatever you seem to be trying to make a big deal out of.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:44 pm
Yes, our nation’s apportionment system is broken and we need to uncap the US house.

Comment by Lake villa township dem pc Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:49 pm
The frustration I have every time this discussion starts up again is there are some real issues that these data demonstrate.

===The new analysis shows that people who moved out of Illinois were younger, more likely to be Black or from downstate, less likely to be Hispanic, and have lower incomes. Nearly 100,000 African Americans left Illinois. Those losses were largely offset by growth in the Chicago area and immigrants from abroad, the report found. […]

Areas of downstate are having real issues with job creation and quality of life. Illinois needs to address that.

Losing young African-Americans is frustrating because Illinois could use the workforce and it’s telling that young African-Americans presumably are finding jobs in other regions. What can we do to fix that? These are real problems, but we end up discussing how a few people employed by Ken Griffen left which isn’t representative of the trends.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:50 pm
==we need to uncap the US house==

Yeah, that’s a good idea. We’ve got 435 people that are a hot mess but by all means let’s add to that.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:53 pm
===To say we lost people due to weather is as remedial===

… and yet the legend that was - Wordslinger - had a comment that had the invention of air conditioning and the growth of Florida in the context of what we are continually seeing, be it retirement (see The Villages) or the aging populations centralized in southern states.

The weather is only getting warmer in the past 50 years, (as this has devolved into weather, sorry) but populations like The Villages are growing.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 12:56 pm
===but by all means let’s add to that===

A good case can be made that their districts have too many people.

In the 1910 Census, 210,328 was the average apportionment. In 2020, it was 761,169.

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/apportionment-data-text.html

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:00 pm
===WI, MN, IN, IA,

Iowa lost one of 5 in 2010. Wisconsin lost one of 9 in the 2000 cycle. Minnesota barely avoided losing one this time because NY screwed up its count and MN maximized its count. Indiana lost one in the 2000 cycle going from ten to nine. Nebraska is fascinating in that the western district has taken over all but the Omaha - Lincoln corridor when it used to be only the western 2/3 of the state. Missouri lost a seat in 2010. Michigan lost one each of the last cycles similar to Illinois. Part of this has to do with proportions of larger population states, but the basic point is that the Midwest isn’t losing population, but it is facing much slower growth than some areas of the south and west.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:01 pm
—Yeah, that’s a good idea. We’ve got 435 people that are a hot mess but by all means let’s add to that.

We are way out of whack with other industrialized countries in having so many people in a district:
https://www.amacad.org/ourcommonpurpose/enlarging-the-house/section/7

Apparently Iceland is the New Hampshire of industrialized countries.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:04 pm
Just an opinion based on nothing to anything…

Always thought anything more than 300,000 - 350,000 for a MOC was totally out of bounds.

Just too much to be the “closest” representation

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:26 pm
===If it was about weather why would CO gain a seat, it’s colder===

Tell me you’ve never been to Colorado, without telling me you’ve never been to Colorado.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:29 pm
===As well as take advantage of adding enough people to the new roles that by 2030 census we may have increased back up to 18 congressional seats.===

The trend isn’t our friend, from the 60’s and 70’s

Which was the last census where we *gained* a congressional seat.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:31 pm
===A good case can be made that their districts have too many people.===

+1 to this. See https://thirty-thousand.org/overview/ for more.

Comment by thechampaignlife Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:39 pm
Illinois has not gained congressional representation since the 1910 census and has consistently lost representation since the 1940 census. The exact same pattern has carried out for most states in the Northeast and Midwest. This is the result of post-war westward and southward migration in America that has been fueled by air conditioning, modern transportation and deindustrialization, among other things.

Comment by Telly Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:41 pm
There are some good stats in the report. But you don’t have to attack to source to find reasons to be concerned. First, losing young people is an issue. They are the future taxpayers. Without adjusting for inflation many of the other numbers cited are meaningless. A quite look at census data shows that when you do adjust for inflation median household income dropped significantly from 2011-2021.

Comment by Stand Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:46 pm
- Telly -

Well, you’re no fun.

:)

Countless times I find myself wondering what words - Wordslinger - would have for so many things. His eloquence to this issue and the southern migration, post world war, and what Illinois was fighting against with places like TX or FL that before the war (or air conditioning, as one) neither place had.

Colorado is a bastion for highly educated folks looking for the outdoor life, with a strong DoD footprint to that technology too.

How we look at states, as we try to work with what Illinois can offer, look at Alabama, with a new congressional map because “racism”. It’s Huntsville now, not Birmingham or Mobile or any other region or city growing in that state, and as poor and uneducated (measurably by census data) the state is, Huntsville is in the discussion as “most educated city, per capita” in the country, and the only area where growth is seen in the state. Aerospace and DoD driving that, but where Illinois needs to learn from both Colorado, as a state, and Huntsville as a city is find what will attract talent, youth, diversity, and education both by graduates and offerings of education to outside peoples.

Illinois needs to be more than “Chicago”, downstate needs to be showcased with universities as the engines for that, and immigration isn’t scary unless those who think it’s scary have the wrong reasons to breed fear.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 1:54 pm
===in the report===

In which report, so you’re clear.

Thanks.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 2:02 pm
=== Without adjusting for inflation ===

Look at the report. They do adjust for inflation. For instance…

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 2:02 pm
===They do adjust for inflation.===

Which is what confused me.

===There are some good stats in the report.===

Including adjustments

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 2:06 pm
Well, if we’re going for anecdotal information . . . . My parents live in an extremely rural part of central IL, as in only internet available to them is dial-up, which was hell on them during the pandemic when they couldn’t zoom in to see anyone. Their house, built around 1990 on about 35 acres, is not for sale (yet). This year, people have started knocking on their door, asking them to sell. Now that this is happening, they’re considering moving to a nearby university town, but every nice house they look at is immediately snapped up. I am aware of one family in the area who has moved away within the last few years. I know several more who have moved in, and I have educator friends from more conservative states looking into jobs here.

Comment by Lagartha's Shield Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 3:53 pm
= Have your family or friends left recently?=
Well, since you asked.
No, but I’ve made a few friends over the past year who moved here from other states. One is from Tennessee and one is from Texas. They both moved here to protect their transgender children.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 6:59 pm
Nope. I’m wrong. Median adjusted income actually up. 2010 was the depths of the financial crisis but when you are wrong you have to admit it! Other quote pulled from report.

Comment by Stand Tuesday, Oct 10, 23 @ 9:16 pm