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* The pollster only surveyed 468 registered voters. Among those, just 108 were college graduates (excluding postgraduates), so we can probably ignore the subgroups right off the bat…
Joe Biden is losing college graduates to Trump. In Illinois.
Yeah right. https://t.co/owBeMGDrXF
— Thomas C. Bowen (@thomascbowen) October 15, 2023
The full Emerson College poll is here. Biden won Illinois by 17 points, and when the pollster asked respondents for whom they voted in 2020, Biden led by 17 points. But, again, this is a small sample size. Grain of salt, etc.
* From the pollster…
An Emerson College Polling survey of Illinois residents finds President Joe Biden with a 35% approval rating, while 44% disapprove of the job the president is doing in the Oval Office. Governor J. B. Pritzker carries a 41% approval rating, while 35% disapprove of the job he is doing as governor.
President Biden leads former President Trump by nine points in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, 43% to 34%. Fourteen percent support someone else and 9% are undecided. […]
Illinois residents were asked how much of a problem, in terms of affordability, is it to rent or buy a home in their area. Housing affordability is a ‘big problem’ for 41% of Illinois residents, while 31% say it is a ‘medium problem.’ Seventeen percent say housing affordability is a slight problem, and 11% say it is not a problem at all. Idaho residents were asked the same question this October, and 67% of residents described renting or buying to be a ‘big’ problem, while 23% considered it a medium problem, and 7% considered it to be a slight problem.
* Methodology…
The Emerson College Polling Illinois poll was conducted October 1-4, 2023. The sample consisted of 468 Illinois voters with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points; the sample of Illinois residents is n=489 with a credibility interval of 4.4 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, age, race, party, and education based on the general population using a sample of n=489 participants and allowing the natural fallout to create the sample of n=468 voters. Turnout modeling is based on US Census parameters, and Illinois voter registration and voter turnout data by regions (IL SOS). Data was collected by contacting a list of emails provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel of voters provided by Alchemer.
Emerson has an A- rating from 538.
* Meanwhile…
Gov. J.B. Pritzker deposited another $12 million into his J.B. for Governor campaign fund earlier this month, his first personal cash infusion into the account since he won election to another term last November over Republican Darren Bailey.
Pritzker has put $335.55 million into his own campaign fund since March 2017, close to four times the amount that Bruce Rauner, his predecessor who briefly was the state’s top self-funding candidate, spent on his gubernatorial campaigns in 2014 and 2018.
There’s plenty more Pritzker money available, according to Forbes, which recently placed the governor’s net worth at $3.4 billion.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:14 am
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The polling indicates Election denial is a huge bipartisan problem, but we only seem to hear about 1/2 of it’s purveyors
Can you name any other Governors with 41% approval that have as much hubris as JB?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:36 am
Just because folks aren’t enthusiastic about Biden doesn’t mean they will vote for Trump. People weren’t enthusiastic about him last time either, it was about restoring sanity to government.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:37 am
As we head into the DNC; I wonder where Mayor Johnson is at? If we make a guess based off how the issues kicking his butt are polling then it is safe to assume he is closer to Biden than JB. & what does the party do with both the federal and local elected being outliked by the state leader?
Comment by DisappointedVoter Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:41 am
===we only seem to hear about 1/2 of it’s purveyors===
Because nobody tried storming the US Capitol to illegally prevent Congress from tallying votes in January of 2017.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:45 am
===The polling indicates Election denial is a huge bipartisan problem, but we only seem to hear about 1/2 of it’s purveyors===
The 32% of the insurrectionists aren’t a majority of the GOP
You’re reading the data “right” but coming to a wrong conclusion
It’s like someone confused to why Jim Jordan needed a pardon in his role in the insurrection, but now think Jordan should be Speaker, second in line for the presidency.
Maybe your confusion on this poll to Biden and Pritzker is your refusal to call the insurrection by its name.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:48 am
===illegally prevent Congress from tallying votes in January of 2017.===
Thank you.
- LP -, why did they choose January 6th AND call it “Stop the Steal”…. on T-Shirts.
Why not January 7th, 11th…
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:49 am
==but we only seem to hear about 1/2 of it’s purveyors==
Don’t you ever get tired of playing the victim? Because I certainly get tired of it.
== that have as much hubris as JB==
Hey genius. He won two elections handily. He won the right to enact his policies. All of the state’s constitutional officers and Democrats and the General Assembly is super majority Democrats. And yet you whine day in and day out that nobody is paying attention to the policies you would like to see. Why is that? Because your ideas lost LP. They lost.
I am sick to death of the dishonesty you display here day in and day out. It’s a tiresome schtick and yet every day you bring out your dishonesty once again.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:53 am
Looks like 35% will support Dems no matter what, and 35% will oppose them no matter what. But try gaining more than half of the remaining 30% with election denying wanna-be autocrats or Chicago-hating downstaters nursing on the federal dole.
Comment by Jibba Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 11:54 am
While I like to think polls that don’t make sense are outliers, Rich points to the low sample size, so I would caution on the cross. But, Mr Bowen, I have also found it better to be prepared that maybe, just maybe, the numbers are showing us the actual values of the people who actually go vote. I would not ignore them. Plan for the worst has served me well over the years on election day.
Comment by Tom Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:03 pm
@Lucky Pierre
Weird how I can’t think of any examples like people who know him speaking out or public conduct to showcase this supposed hubris you accuse him of. But then again if you were a good judge of character you wouldn’t have twice backed people who immediately abandoned you and their other supporters after they lost an election.
Comment by ItsMillerTime Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:03 pm
It’s like being mad at the mom who sticks around to care for you when the father runs away to start a new life in Florida.
Comment by Jocko Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:36 pm
As it’s his inheritance - The Gov can spend his money any way he wants but what does it say about anyone running in one of the Bluest States that he spent 357 million dollars? A fool and his money are soon parted
Comment by Sue Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:50 pm
===what does it say about anyone running in one of the Bluest States that he spent 357 million dollars?===
* Control of the state party apparatus
* All statewide offices in Dem hands
* The state legislature, again, is super majority Dem, and growth since
* Drew 2 GOPers out of Congress, maps approved by a judge meeting VRA
* The 5-2 ILSC majority, after a horrendous blunder by Jim Nowlan, capitalized
You break that down for, say, 10+ years of GOP irrelevance until at least 2032… that’s winning cheaply.
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:56 pm
==A fool and his money are soon parted==
Well he’s been rich his whole life so I guess he’s not a fool.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:57 pm
OW-and as recently reported-the worst gerrymandered State in the nation
Comment by Sue Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 12:59 pm
Can you name any other Governors with 41% approval that have as much hubris as JB?=
No, but I can name a guy that got trounced in the last election he ran in that lies about losing and runs around calling people names. He demonstrates quite a bit of hubris.
=As it’s his inheritance - The Gov can spend his money any way he wants=
He also seems to be doing well with is investments and has no bankruptcies or major lawsuits against him. At least compared to one other guy who inherited his money.
=but what does it say about anyone running in one of the Bluest States that he spent 357 million dollars? A fool and his money are soon parted=
He won both elections that he ran. Easily.
So it says he is a winner.
Comment by JS Mill Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:02 pm
==Thoughts?==
If this election was a Hamilton/Burr type duel, with their respective front runners both parties are well positioned to shoot themselves in the foot, with the eventual winner determined by which one can still walk after November.
Comment by fs Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:02 pm
- Sue -
That’s adorable
Now do Alabama’s map that needed a judge to make it *legal*.
Your SCOTUS all but endorsers gerrymandering.
- Sue -…
===what does it say about anyone running in one of the Bluest States that he spent 357 million dollars?===
I’d also point you to one Charles Foster Kane and his thoughts to your hand wringing;
“You’re right, I did lose a million dollars last year. I expect to lose a million dollars this year. I expect to lose a million dollars *next* year. You know, Mr. Thatcher, at the rate of a million dollars a year, I’ll have to close this place in… sixty years.”
Pritzker could have dozens of 60 years at this point.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:02 pm
==worst gerrymandered State==
Not even in the top nine
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/most-gerrymandered-states
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:05 pm
==-and as recently reported-the worst gerrymandered State in the nation==
Lol. Gerrymandering is an equal opportunity problem. But your hyperpartisan hackery doesn’t allow you to be honest.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:06 pm
Emerson used to be pretty good. After the last election they had egg on their face. Their sample sizes and breakdowns are quite small. 538 used to be good now it’s pretty crappy. They give A’s and B’s to nakedly partisan pollsters. The combination of their degraded rating system and the partisanship makes me skeptical.
Comment by Stormsw7706 Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:09 pm
Sue and LP. C’mon GOP, is this the best you can do?
Comment by don the legend Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:12 pm
===recently reported-the worst gerrymandered State in the nation===
Cite please?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:16 pm
OW/ you always want people here to do your research- it was on 538
Comment by Sue Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:33 pm
===you always want people===
… to cite their own facts, as I do.
Don’t be a victim, lol
Link please?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:34 pm
OW-if was on 538
Comment by Sue Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:37 pm
- Sue -
It states “arguably”, while also acknowledging Alabama… a state where a court needed to draw the map… while Illinois maps were approved as legal by the court.
How can Illinois be the worst when it also wasn’t deemed illegal or redrawn by the court?
It’s an odd flex by you, I’ll give you that, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:38 pm
===was on 538===
- Sue -…
“Arguably” isn’t deemed true… maybe that’s why no link?
lol, I mean, - Sue -…. “This?”
===The worst Democratic gerrymander in the country is arguably in Illinois, as it set off a high-stakes game of musical chairs among the state’s five Republican House members.===
… that’s your “cite”?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:41 pm
Washington Post - October 7 rated Illinois worst Gerrymandered State with a grade of F
Comment by Sue Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:42 pm
=what does it say about anyone running in one of the Bluest States that he spent 357 million dollars?=
I dunno he seems fairly happy in doing so. Maybe the better question is why do his decisions result in your rather visceral reaction. You could chose to find your own happiness if you choose.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:42 pm
@Sue
Are you going to continue to be dishonest and act like Illinois is some outlier in gerrymandering or acknowledge that it’s a problem across the parties? You are becoming as dishonest as LP.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:45 pm
===Washington Post - October 7===
- Sue -
“Asked and answered”
That was a fluff piece for Rodney Davis to prop him up as he put up a shingle in DC.
Next?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:45 pm
Why wouldn’t JB continue to pile more money in. You don’t take your foot off of the gas. You make sure your arsenal is full so that when the time comes you can destroy your enemy in a way that ensures they don’t win the election.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 1:48 pm
Sue - while it might be true that Illinois’ maps are gerrymandered pretty bad, it is also true that the Republican party has rendered itself incapable of governing in any way that would have given them a chance at input on the results. This is price we pay for having the ridiculous people put forth by the Republicans instead of a legitimate opposition party that actually wants to govern well.
You want to sit at the adult table for dinner? How about you put forth reasonable people who can show they have table manners.
Comment by Name Withheld Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 2:36 pm
Sue, how many states got Fs in that article. Hint, it was a lot, and mostly Republican.
Comment by Jibba Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 2:50 pm
I’m curious about the ages of the college grads that went marginally for Trump in the poll cross tabs. I’ll theorize, okay, guess - that they care significantly older. Older folks are more likely to still have landlines and answer phone polls. If they are indeed much older, they could be having their past education overridden by conservative media aimed at them.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Monday, Oct 16, 23 @ 2:59 pm