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* Background is here if you need it. From Christina Baker at the Bond Buyer…
The accounts payable tab is at $572 million, down from $5.9 billion in 2021 and its peak of $16.7 billion in 2017. Illinois estimates that the accounts payable will stand at around $527 million at the end of the fiscal year.
“What was the bills backlog is now a normal accounts payable situation,” [Fitch Ratings analyst Eric Kim] said.
Illinois is also steadily increasing its reserves. The budget stabilization fund stands at $1.965 billion now and the state plans to add another $138 million by the end of the fiscal year. The fund is 4.2% of Illinois’ enacted 2024 revenues, but the state has raised the target to 7.5% of revenues. Fitch’s report said the state’s rating could be raised if the fund reached 10% of state spending.
The 2024 budget creates long-term sources of funding for the budget stabilization fund, including 10% of cannabis tax revenues, and repayment over 10 years from the state’s $450 million loan to the unemployment insurance trust fund.
* Let’s go back to Fitch’s report…
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:
–Material improvements in fiscal resilience, primarily through building reserves to, or approaching, 10% of spending, while maintaining other improvements in fiscal management such as normalization of accounts payable.
–Sustained progress toward structural balance and improved liability management, primarily through materially narrowing the wide gap between actual and actuarially determined pension contributions.
–For Build Illinois, an upgrade to the state’s [Issuer Default Rating].
Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:
–Reversion to the previous pattern of irresolute and contentious fiscal decision-making, which could include delayed budgets with unsustainable fiscal measures such as deeper pension funding deferrals or sustained increases to accounts payable or other budgetary liabilities.
–Imprudent budget management that builds in significant new recurring spending or revenue reductions without offsetting actions, threatening recent progress towards structural balance.
–For Build Illinois, deterioration in the state’s IDR given the linkages, or material weakening of pledged revenue coverage and structural resilience. Fitch considers this unlikely given the limitations on additional debt issuance.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 11:49 am
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Ever notice it’s never about the obligation to debt that bond holders made?
It seems to me that these “criteria” are systematically placed to artificially set a rate so the bond buyers maximize margins… but I’m cynical that way.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:01 pm
The State of Illinois is the guarantor of the MPEA’s $11.9 billion of debt. That debt is payable over the next 35 years. That’s over $350 million of bond payments a year for the MPEA while the MPEA Authority Tax revenue had never exceeded $168 million.
BTW, Fitch rated the last MPEA scoop and toss at BBB.
How many times can the MPEA scoop and toss before someone notices?
Comment by Chicago 20 Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:13 pm
Word around the rail is that the democrats in the house have over appropriated the capital bill by 1 billion dollars. So there is a small example of a return to the old ways.
Comment by The Gravy Man Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:23 pm
I’m curious as to the number of other states that have 10% reserves, and what ther ratings are.
Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:34 pm
I’d like to know why the rating agencies rate Illinois so high when there’s something around $140 Billion due the pension funds? It’s like the raters selectively ignore the pension mess regardless of their language about long-term challenges, etc.
Comment by thisjustinagain Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:38 pm
@thisjustinagain:
You work for the IPI? lol. You are apparently one of those people who roots for bad things for the state.
Comment by Demoralized Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:43 pm
@PublicServant. You had me curious as well. The National Association of State Budget Offices’ annual report, shows each states rainy day fund on page 85 of the full report and there is a Wike page for state credit ratings.
https://www.nasbo.org/reports-data/fiscal-survey-of-states
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_credit_rating
Comment by Curious George Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:44 pm
===like the raters selectively ignore the pension mess===
Pensions have been a stable, although still high, part of the budget for the past few years or so. Annual funding just hasn’t been a big problem and there are no big increases in sight.
The problem here is that governors and legislatures have avoided dealing with pensions. For decades, they deliberately underfunded pensions because they wouldn’t raise taxes to provide the services that people expected. And now, after many hard years, the problem has stabilized. Still bleeding but not fatally.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:44 pm
=I’d like to know why the rating agencies rate Illinois so high when there’s something around $140 Billion due the pension funds?=
Because the amount is not due today and there’s no reason to believe the state won’t be able to meet the obligation.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 12:45 pm
“there’s something around $140 Billion due the pension funds”
This is an inaccurate statement. There is not $140B due the pension funds. The liability represents the difference between the total pension fund balance (the five state funds) and the amount of pension benefits owed to all current employees and retirees.
Comment by Steve Polite Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 1:18 pm
@Curious George - Wiki data is 2 1/2 years old, May 2021.
Comment by Anyone Remember Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 1:20 pm
Keep movin’ those goal posts, Fitch. We save, they say save more. We pay pensions, they say pay more.
==why the rating agencies rate Illinois so high when there’s something around $140 Billion due the pension funds?==
Ratings are relative. Wisconsin, a state with virtually fully funded pensions, rates 5 notches higher than Illinois.
Comment by City Zen Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 2:52 pm
Ultimately the state needs to decide whether it makes more financial sense for taxpayers to put funds in reserve to lower interest rates, use those funds to reduce pension debt even further, or invest in state programs that will yield a higher rate of return by growing our economy.
Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 5:05 pm
=I’d like to know why the rating agencies rate Illinois so high when there’s something around $140 Billion due the pension funds?=
This statement is a bit of a canard as @Steve Polite and Pundent explained. On top of their explanation I would add that Tier 2 has allowed the annual obligation to go down every year for the last 11 and that will continue to happen even after they adjust for safe harbor. Tier 2 has reduced the annual pension cost to the state by some $600 million annually according to what I saw two year ago. That is not the legacy debt payment, that is the annual payment. As Tier 1 members pass on, the annual cost will reduce even faster.
The pension as a “problem” has always been hyperbole. In 1970 the funding level was 41% funds to obligations. 53 years later that number is 43%. It dipped during the financial crisis, but only a couple of percent. SO long as the annual payments are made to pensioners, the problem is manageable. The payments have always been made.
And the bond rating should always be AAA. Illinois has NEVER failed to make a GO bond payment and it never will. States cannot go bankrupt.
One of the very few (like three) investment options for schools is public bonds. We bought state bonds and are earning almost 2% more than CD’s available to us at the time.
Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Nov 8, 23 @ 6:58 pm