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Fun with numbers

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Illinois

* Ray LaHood and Jim Nowlan writing in the Tribune…

In 2021, the Democratic majority in the Illinois legislature drew new district maps. Last year, citizens cast around 70,000 more votes statewide for Republican rather than for Democratic candidates for the Illinois House. The results: Democrats won 78 seats; the GOP, 40.

Not mentioned is that the House Democrats ran 92 candidates last fall compared to 104 House Republican candidates.

But let’s drill down a bit more. The House Democrats ran just five candidates in races that were won by Republicans with at least 60 percent of the vote. On the other hand, the House Republicans ran 38 candidates in races won by Democrats with at least 60 percent of the vote. That’s a difference of 33 races.

So, a big part of this disparity is Republicans run a ton of candidates in no-chance districts and the Democrats don’t. Heck, one might even go as far as to say that groups like the Illinois Policy Institute spent a few bucks recruiting lots of GOP candidates to set up this very LaHood/Nowlan talking point. Just sayin.

Did the Democrats gerrymander the districts? Of course they did. Hugely so. But a little context would’ve been nice.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:21 am

Comments

My township is in Cook County but outside of Chicago.We have been carved up like a Turkey into six house districts.

Comment by bob Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:33 am
—A little context would have been nice—

How about this context…Gov. Pritzker vehemently pledged to veto any partisan map. He then signed his name to establish the most partisan map in Illinois history. More context…Gov Pritzker won reelection with 54% of the vote and yet his party controls 66% of the seats in the house. I voted for him in 2018 based on that pledge. As a Republican that acknowledges the damage of the Rauner administration, it was a huge part of the basis of my support.

The point of the article is that the game is rigged. Yet, we are worried about context.

Comment by Mr. Middleground Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:40 am
“even go as far as to say that groups like the Illinois Policy Institute spent a few bucks recruiting lots of GOP candidates to set up this […] talking point”

I doubt it was intentional. There just isn’t that level of long-term planning, even for the stuff they want to do.

More likely they are trying to pivot their constant failure into some sort of success.

I mean, they also spent a lot of money to convince a portion of their own electoral, *to leave the state* where they wouldn’t be voting for any republicans at all here.

These just aren’t serious people.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:42 am
**My township is in Cook County but outside of Chicago.We have been carved up like a Turkey into six house districts.**

Not sure why would care about keeping a township together in a legislative district?

Comment by JoeMaddon Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:42 am
Context complicates narrative.

Also, left unsaid is that the IL map met demo standards. Red state maps don’t and when the courts rule against them, they ignore or play games.

I’ll listen when you support a national initiative to reform the system. Otherwise, you’re just a partisan troll.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:44 am
But… I’ll wait breathlessly for Lahood and Nowlan to write an OpEd and file legal claims about the maps in North Carolina, Texas, Alabama, Ohio, and other places.

Comment by JoeMaddon Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:45 am
Nowlan/LaHood also seem to ignore the remap complied with state and federal voting rights requirements — which apparently don’t favor GOPie/MAGA candidates they might want to foist off on us. We won’t touch on the credentials of the two authors.

Comment by Annon'in Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:45 am
===How about this context===

I do not disagree with your points. I’m the one who asked him the remap question in the first place. He was the only Democratic candidate to say he’d veto maps written by legislators/staff/etc. I wrote about it here I don’t know how many times.

But that talking point, without context, is just blatantly misleading. Do better.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:50 am
Maybe the context should include the fact that Republicans don’t have very good candidates, e.g. Farmer Bailey.

Comment by very old soil Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:54 am
“that the game is rigged”

Ah, if only we could harken back to the days when politics in this nation was pure of heart, where only those most noble and altruistic participated.

Comment by Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 11:56 am
Unfortunately gerrymandering is a necessary evil that IL must participate in.

If there were some law or covenant between states to outlaw gerrymandering, then I would want IL to abolish gerrymandering.

As it stands, IL stands as a bastion against southern Republican gerrymandering, and is the only hope of a US House of Reps majority that reflects the national feelings of the country. It’s an absolute joke that the national house could go any color other than blue (due to it being the chamber which represents the populace), and that is in large part due to New York and California deciding to minimize gerrymandering, while states like NC, TX, and FL do everything in their power to make blue an imaginary color.

Comment by That Guy Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:04 pm
===don’t have very good candidates, e.g. Farmer Bailey.===

Bailey ran statewide. But if they could find some actual pro-choice candidates to run in the suburbs, they could start clawing their way back, which is some actual real-life context ignored by fake statistics people like Nowlan.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:05 pm
—don’t have very good candidate—

Bailey is/was a terrible candidate and legislator. I agree with you 100%. But even he, with all of his fault, still got more support statewide than is represented by his party in the legislature. I think this even further makes my point.

—ask him about the remap in the first place—

It was a good question, and I was thrilled by his answer. Not the first time a politician has lied, I suppose.

Comment by Mr. Middleground Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:08 pm
I agree 100% with That Guy. Unless you are talking about a nationwide ban on partisan gerrymandering I am not listening.

Comment by Out Here In The Middle Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:32 pm
Something else to remember is that even with the districts setup the way they are. Those extra 70,000 votes aren’t translated into any state wide offices.
Democrats hold all of the state wide offices.

Comment by crow930 Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:37 pm
The lack of context is just more proof that Jim Nowlan is a partisan hack. There’s nothing wrong with that – – I’m a partisan hack, too. Except Nolan often presents himself as a University of Illinois-affiliated researcher/professor when he wants to project the image of an above-the-fray, nonpartisan expert. He is none of those things.

Comment by Telly Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:42 pm
Only 10% of Illinois voters believe abortion should be illegal in all cases. By that measure, The GOP over-performed.

I am not saying that Fair Maps is not a reasonable issue to debate. But in the context of a 100% pro-life candidate for governor, SCOTUS overturning Roe, Trump flipping on abortion rights, and not a single Personal PAC endorsed GOP candidate anywhere on the ticket, anywhere in the state, what did you expect?

“I am pro-choice, but I cant believe JB broke his promise to veto a gerrymandered map!”

or

“I am pro-choice, and thank goodness Democrats are doing whatever they can to keep the nutcases out of power.”

In the past, I would have agreed with Rich that if the GOP wants to make headway, they should start running more moderate candidates in the suburbs. But honestly, I dont think they could survive the contested primary that would certainly happen, and even then I cant see how they can shake all of the negatives of the GOP brand.

They say the problem with trying to help alcoholics and other addicts is that they don’t really want help because they can’t admit they have a problem. The Nowlan/LaHood piece is clear evidence of an ongoing denial of reality. Nothing will punch through that denial until the GOP hits bottom, and they finally decide they need help. I don’t know where bottom is, but they clearly have not hit it yet.

=== Not the first time a politician has lied, I suppose. ===

Or, you could say the pledge was made in the spirit of bipartisanship, and the pledge evaporated right along with the bipartisanship in Springfield. Republicans had plenty of chances to work with the governor in the first two years, i dont recall any bipartisanship on any major issues. Maybe I am wrong though, refresh my memory if you can.

Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:51 pm
===Maybe I am wrong though, refresh my memory if you can. ===

Yes, you are. Budget, capital bill and business tax breaks were just three very significant 2019 bipartisan achievements.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 12:59 pm
===In 2021, the Democratic majority in the Illinois legislature drew new district maps. Last year, citizens cast around 70,000 more votes statewide for Republican rather than for Democratic candidates for the Illinois House. The results: Democrats won 78 seats; the GOP, 40.===

I agree with Rich that this statement lacked sufficient context, which, if included, would render the point meaningless.

But I’ll give them a bonus point for using the correct term Democratic, where I assume the original draft used Democrat. And an additional point is awarded for not mentioning how many counties were “won” by Republicans.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:00 pm
I’ve come to the conclusion, it’s only gerrymandering if your side looses.
To the winners its “strategic mapping.”

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:04 pm
Sounds like something from a Trump rally speech.

Totally doesn’t make sense, needs some real data analysis, not Trumpian spin.

Comment by Sceptical Bob Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:09 pm
===a nationwide ban on partisan gerrymandering===
Does this include the electoral college?

Comment by T.S. Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:12 pm
Yeah, i know i spelled it wrong.

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:15 pm
Thanks for the context, Rich. I raised an eyebrow when I read that but hadn’t put together how they came up with that number yet.

Comment by twowaystreet Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:23 pm
- if your side looses -

Tighten up…you’re making Miller’s teeth clench.

Comment by Dotnonymous x Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:23 pm
=Gov Pritzker won reelection with 54% of the vote and yet his party controls 66% of the seats in the house. =

If we apply your logic to the following:

All state level elected offices are held by Democrats

Then all legislative positions should be held by Democrats as well.

Or there is more to the story…

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:26 pm
—Then all legislative positions should be held by Democrats as well—

Not more to the story but you’re obviously reading from the wrong book. Try again.

Comment by Mr.Middleground Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 1:51 pm
Even more context.
2018 Governor Pritzker won 55-38(17pt margin) and Democrats won 62% of the house(74-44).
2022 Governor Pritzker won 54-43 (11pt margin) and Democrats won 66% of the house (78-40)

But “context”

Comment by Mr. Middleground Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 2:09 pm
=Not more to the story but you’re obviously reading from the wrong book. Try again.=

The “data” cited by Nowlin and LaHood is meaningless. The governor’s margin of victory has no correlation to legislative seats. And if inference was all that matters you could infer that Democrats were under-represented legislatively since they hold every statewide office. And you can’t blame that on a map which is probably why Nowlin and LaHood don’t include it in their “analysis.”

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 2:44 pm
==But if they could find some actual pro-choice candidates to run in the suburbs ==

That’s true, but I think the odds of a candidate like that making it through a primary in the suburbs are relatively slim.

I also think you would have some difficulty finding a candidate who fits that bill and is willing to go through what they would have to go through in a primary and the hard-core local GOP orgs.

I used to be involved in a Township GOP organization. They went from a hard ‘it takes 2/3rds of the committeemen to endorse someone.’ To passing a motion to ‘censure’ Mark Kirk. I still get e-mails from them from time to time when they have a conservative group come and speak to them. I’m unsure how that helps win any township or county races, but what do I know?

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 3:03 pm
- But even he, with all of his fault, still got more support statewide than is represented by his party in the legislature. -

So what? To make more districts lean republican the legislature would have to play with the boundaries just like they do for the democrats, is there a logical reason for them to do that? The fact is republicans represent the areas where they are most concentrated, if they want to change that maybe they need to move.

Comment by Excitable Boy Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 3:55 pm
Illinois is not a good example of excessive gerrymandering because as pointed out here Dems won all statewide elections for last few years. Wisconsin is a good example of GOP excessive gerrymandering because it elected a Dem Governor, but legislature is overwhelmingly GOP. Also, it just elected a Dem Supreme Court Justice, but GOP threatened to impeach & remove her from office if she votes the wrong way, and they have the votes to do it!

Comment by Watchdog Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 4:00 pm
=Not more to the story but you’re obviously reading from the wrong book. Try again.=

Go back and read what @Pundent stated so well. I applied your logic (or lack thereof) to the equation and it came up with a different correlation that obviously did not jive with your sensibilities.

Nap time.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 4:19 pm
It is concerning that several here are defending gerrymandering. But if you believe in that process, fine. We can agree to disagree.

Far worse though are those here pretending it doesn’t exist. Of course it does, and we all know it. It speaks to your character to pretend otherwise.

Gerrymandering in Florida, Wisconsin, and New York is wrong too. I’m with President Obama and fundamentally oppose gerrymandering at all levels. Check the receipts…I’ve argued for this for a long time.

Comment by Mr. Middleground Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 6:15 pm
=Far worse though are those here pretending it doesn’t exist.=

Of course it exists. But it’s lazy and intellectually dishonest to always blame the ILGOP’s failures on the map. They need to run better candidates where it matters if they have any hope of relevancy. The party’s problems are far deeper than how the maps were drawn.

Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Dec 6, 23 @ 6:45 pm