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After state request, Census Bureau admits it missed 46,400 people in 2020 count

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Illinois

* Another development during the break. From Crain’s last week…

Illinois got positive news Wednesday, as the U.S. Census Bureau agreed to add over 46,000 people to state population totals during its annual reviews for the rest of the decade.

The Census Bureau accepted a state of Illinois request to review its population living in congregate settings and found it previously missed 46,400 people. Those residents will be added to the state’s annual estimated population totals for the rest of this decade, according to a press release from Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s office.

Illinois officials have cried foul since the official census totals were released in 2020 and have claimed that census workers undercounted state residents. A decline of 18,000 people from 2010 through 2020 was announced alongside the official total in 2020.

* Tribune…

Illinois may not be losing population after all.

An undercount in the 2020 census missed 46,400 Illinois residents living in group homes, an adjustment to the population base that will be incorporated in future surveys, the state announced Wednesday. […]

“I’m pleased that the Census Bureau has recognized the undercounting that I and many members of Illinois’ congressional delegation have worked to remedy since the 2020 census results were first released,” Gov. J.B. Pritzker said in a news release. “This correction will bring in millions in additional federal funding for crucial programs and help to ensure future counts reflect the true number of Illinois residents.”

State legislators have been calling for a recount of the 2020 census since its initial release, which showed a population of 12,812,508, a decrease of 18,000 people over a decade — the first such decline since Illinois joined the union. A 2022 follow-up survey found the state’s population figures had likely been undercounted.

* US Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi…

“For the last two years, I have partnered with the Governor in calling for a fair census count to guarantee our state and our citizens receive the requisite federal funding we deserve. The updated Census data show that Illinois’ population grew to a record high last decade, but we know we need to continue to do everything we can to attract more businesses and people to Illinois. I will continue to work with Governor Pritzker and the other leaders of our state to work on that mission and to help Illinoisans achieve their full social and economic potential.”

* From Pritzker’s Press release…

Following the release of initial census results in 2020, a Census Bureau survey designed to estimate overcount and undercount rates within states revealed that Illinois had in fact gained population in the prior decade contrary to reported population declines. Governor Pritzker, alongside members of the Illinois Congressional Delegation, called repeatedly for the U.S. Census Bureau to ensure that Illinois receives its fair share of federal funding reflective of the updated, accurate numbers that show Illinois is growing. In September of this year, the state requested an official Post-Census Group Quarters Review (PCGQR) to account for inaccuracies in census data, which was granted this week.

The review found that 733 Group Quarters were missed or undercounted in the 2020 Census Group Quarters Operation, along with a corresponding population of 46,400 people. The PCGQR submitted by the state identified 40,512 people residing in group quarter facilities such as care homes or senior living facilities who were missed in initial counts. The state also identified 123 dormitory settings where the population was undercounted for an additional 5,888 people.

Although the 46,400 identified people will not be added Illinois’s official 2020 census numbers, the adjustment is crucial for the state as annual population estimates are produced over the next six years before the 2030 census. The updated group quarters population is added to the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Program where they will be included in the baseline data used to produce upcoming annual population estimates. Those figures are used when determining the distribution of over $675 billion in state and federal programs. The state will continue to challenge population undercounts and plans to participate in additional opportunities for appeal and review to make further adjustments to the state’s count.

* Meanwhile, from the AP…

Four years after the last census, almost a dozen small communities in the Midwest are going to be counted again in hopes of getting a new grocery store or more state funding to build roads, fire stations and parks.

Eleven small cities in Illinois and Iowa are the only municipalities so far to have signed agreements with the U.S. Census Bureau for a second count of their residents in 2024 and 2025, in a repeat of what happened during the 2020 census. The first year in which the special censuses can be conducted is 2024.

With one exception, city officials don’t think the numbers from the original count were inaccurate. It’s just that their populations have grown so fast in three years that officials believe they are leaving state funding for roads and other items on the table by not adding the extra growth to their population totals. Some also believe that new results from a second count will open up their community to new businesses by showing they have crossed a population threshold.

* NBC Chicago…

Several cities in Illinois are seeking updated counts of their populations in 2024, the first year that communities are eligible to request such recounts. Pingree Grove and Warrenville, both Chicago suburbs, are seeking new counts this year, which would be undertaken at their expense, according to the Census Bureau.

Both communities hold that they’ve added significant population in 2020, and are hoping to bring in extra state and federal revenues as a result.

Urbana has also requested a recount of its population. The community, home of the University of Illinois’ flagship campus, believes it was undercounted during the 2020 Census because its population is so heavily-reliant on student housing, which was gutted during the COVID pandemic.

* And here’s another way of looking at things from the New York Times…

An analysis in 2022 by economists at the University of North Carolina, the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, the University of Michigan and the University of Chicago of data gleaned from LinkedIn showed how states with dynamic economic centers are luring college graduates from more rural states. Iowa loses 34.2 percent of its college graduates, worse than 40 of the 50 states, just below North Dakota, which loses 31.6 percent. Illinois, by contrast, gains 20 percent more college graduates than it produces. Minnesota has about 8 percent more than it produces.

[Isabel Miller contributed to this post.]

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 10:33 am

Comments

I saw that report about how we receive 20% more college graduates than we produce and was struck by how inconsistent that is with the Illinois Exodus narrative. And this 47,000 person increase, while meager, is still in the right direction. The Illinois Exodus has been and remains a largely bogus narrative.

Comment by New Day Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:03 am
Chatham might want to consider getting a recount. Would be interesting to see if there has been an increase (which would not surprise me) since their official 2020 count of 14,377.

Comment by Stuck in Celliniland Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:05 am
An example of how literally every operation of the federal government was politicized under the previous administration. The Census Bureau should be an agency that states don’t have to worry about political games being played at.

Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:11 am
===An example of how literally every operation of the federal government was politicized under the previous administration.

Not disagreeing with the sentiment, but tampering with the Census Bureau started before Trump going back to the Bush II admin.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:29 am
While I would like to see more Illinois students attend college I state, I’m glad to see that we’re gaining 20% more graduates than we’re producing. It tells me that our economy for college grads is strong and appealing. And my guess is that these individuals stick around longer than 4 years and pump a lot more into the economy than a college student.

Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:36 am
A critical aspect of this is that the areas of Illinois that are losing population are areas that are most similar to Iowa. Some of that is internal migration to Chicago and then emigration to other states. Most often recent college graduates who do leave Illinois go to, California, New York, and Missouri.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:39 am
Could this get is back one or two lost congressional districts when they redistrict in 2032?

Comment by Nick Name Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:40 am
The census operation wasn’t politicized. It was just led by incompetents in the Chicago regional office. The southern two-thirds of the state was covered by just one office in Springfield. This contrasts with previous decades where there were local offices spread throughout the state. The contraction of the local offices was a national decision made I assume because payroll and census forms were electronic.

COVID played a role. The census suspended operations in Illinois on March 18, 2020, in the middle of address verifications. This is the point when dorms and group housing units are supposed to be updated in the system. This project didn’t resume until May I think and wasn’t finished obviously until after the original deadline. Updates entered late did not stick. When enumerators went back out in the field later that summer to follow up on places that didn’t report, we found that updates were no longer in the system. It’s as if the programming ignored any data added after a certain point. I experienced this personally and know of multiple examples.

Another fault of the national operation is that the money sent to community groups to bolster returns came out of the regional offices like Chicago which had no contacts whatsoever with the district offices and enumerators on the ground.

Comment by Former Enumerator Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:43 am
===While I would like to see more Illinois students attend college I state, I’m glad to see that we’re gaining 20% more graduates than we’re producing.

This is part of the challenge for Illinois in demographics. The number of likely college students in Illinois is falling over the next decade by most estimate. That means colleges in Illinois need to do three things
1) Retain Illinois HS graduates better
2) Recruit Illinois HS grads who traditionally have not gone to college
3) Recruit from out of state

#2 is the critical one to me–states like Illinois need to make college more accessible for people who have not traditionally gone.

The most recent enrollment numbers we’ve seen on here suggest the state universities outside of U of I are holding their own (U of I is doing fine), but it’s going to be a tough ten or more years.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:45 am
“Illinois, by contrast, gains 20 percent more college graduates than it produces.”

With book bans, abortion bans, anti “woke” movement, MAGA, etc., Republican states are not places for modern living.

“Let’s be like red states,” say the Illinois doomsayers. Yeah, no—especially now.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:48 am
===Could this get is back one or two lost congressional districts when they redistrict in 2032?

Pretty unlikely. Almost all of the states are gaining some population (WV & MS being the exceptions now that Illinois is in the black). So to gain a seat back would take increasing the population at a faster rate than states with strong growth. If anything, Illinois is growing very slowly population wise and that means probably another CD will be lost in the 2030 cycle.

Comment by ArchPundit Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:49 am
“Not disagreeing with the sentiment, but tampering with the Census Bureau started before Trump going back to the Bush II admin.”

Sorry, I forgot how politicized things got in federal departments during that administration. The Trump era made the Bush/Cheney/Rove tactics look tame…

Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 11:51 am
==I saw that report about how we receive 20% more college graduates than we produce and was struck by how inconsistent that is with the Illinois Exodus narrative.==

Not really because both CA and NY were also above 20% and both have outmigration issues similar to IL.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 12:18 pm
COVID played a role. The census suspended operations in Illinois on March 18, 2020, in the middle of address verifications. This is the point when dorms and group housing units are supposed to be updated in the system. This project didn’t resume until May I think and wasn’t finished obviously until after the original deadline. Updates entered late did not stick. When enumerators went back out in the field later that summer to follow up on places that didn’t report, we found that updates were no longer in the system. It’s as if the programming ignored any data added after a certain point. I experienced this personally and know of multiple examples.

I was bored during the pandemic, so I was also an enumerator in my free time. At least for Urbana, the suspension absolutely impacted the count. The question was “were you living here on Census Day; April 1, 2020″, and in Campustown district apartments (where the overwhelming majority of the students live, and therefore are not caught up in the dorm and group housing counts) the answer for the VAST majority of those doors knocked on was a solid NO. They either didn’t live in that apartment (because lease cycle here is August to August, and there’s something like 80% turnover every year) or thought they were supposed to be counted at their parent’s address instead of answering “if covid hadn’t been a thing, where would you have been living on Census Day” instead of their dorm or previous apartment. The students who were previously living in that apartment were long gone and there was virtually no way to figure out who they were.

Comment by Leap Day William Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 12:26 pm
Glad to see Illinois as a leader in Brain Gain.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 12:27 pm
= It was just led by incompetents in the Chicago regional office.
As Enumerator points out the truth, as someone who worked in January of 2020. I was relocated every other day without completing my daily voter authorization forms. The young lady who answered the phone up front was equally talented as our management team.

Comment by Semi-retired Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 2:45 pm
=== Iowa loses 34.2 percent of its college graduates, worse than 40 of the 50 states, just below North Dakota, which loses 31.6 percent. Illinois, by contrast, gains 20 percent more college graduates than it produces.===

This presentation of the data is misleading. I don’t have time to thoroughly research the data behind the claim, but it doesn’t seem to be discussing where those students lived before they enrolled in universities.

At Iowa’s regent universities about a third of their total student body is out of state students. I’ll spare anecdotes, here’s their report. See page 3: https://www.iowaregents.edu/media/cms/1123_ITEM_9__Fall_2023_Enrollment_R_CFFC6F5245F0F.pdf

In fall of 2023 it hit an all time high of 23,542 out of state students. Iowa “loses” students that it educates at their public universities because they’re “importing” students from other states to educate and to pay out of state tuition.

Is Iowa losing graduates or are they just moving back home to their parents house after the graduate?

Is Illinois gaining college graduates from other states or just welcoming back educated adults who found their public university options here unappealing?

We probably should take pause and stop using this data to justify whatever we want it to justify until the motive for the students is really understood.

A lot of those graduates that are leaving Iowa were probably not really ever Iowan.

Thanks for coming back home, kids.

Comment by Candy Dogood Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 2:46 pm
=A critical aspect of this is that the areas of Illinois that are losing population are areas that are most similar to Iowa. Some of that is internal migration to Chicago and then emigration to other states. =

Rural America, Illinois included

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 3:02 pm
=A lot of those graduates that are leaving Iowa were probably not really ever Iowan.=

Of course not. I don’t think it was stated or implied. For a lot of these kids, and their parents, it’s like sending them off to camp. Everybody loves going to camp but they don’t choose to live there when it ends. And that’s usually because there’s nothing going on other than camp.

Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Jan 9, 24 @ 3:58 pm