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The once-over * UPDATED x1 *

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Illinois

[Updated and bumped to the top.]

* Let’s look at this Tribune article piece by piece…

Gov. Rod Blagojevich suggested Friday he would sign a new state budget set to take effect July 1 after making substantial cuts to account for an estimated $2 billion hole left by lawmakers in the proposal.

What the governor is really suggesting here is that he will use the threat of reduction and item vetoes to get what he wants: revenue streams.

In a signal that he would sign it, the administration released letters sent to agency directors Friday advising them to prepare for significant cuts in what they expected to receive. Among the items Blagojevich suggested were a hiring freeze, stopping all “non-essential” state spending and ending programs that “do not address key priorities of the state.”

That letter wasn’t an indication that he would sign the bills. It was an indication that he plans to threaten deliberately scary cuts to next year’s budget so he doesn’t have to make the cuts. I’m thinking he’ll have to make the cuts anyway, however.

“I haven’t decided what I’m ultimately going to do with the budget,” Blagojevich said.

What he’s gonna do is threaten huge cuts and hope the interest groups, vendors and contractors put pressure on House Democrats, so that they in turn will force Speaker Michael Madigan to allow floor votes on the pension obligation bond and the special funds skims. Even if Madigan does so, several House GOP votes will be needed to pass the bills, and those votes aren’t yet there.

* Related…

* Dugan tells Alliance everyone must come togetherin state capital budget battle

* Rutherford Expects Budget Debate To Bring About Special Session

* GOP leader responds to governor’s threat

* State budget process not entirely flawed

* Governor warns of deep cuts

* State Capitol Notebook

* Issue Forum with Paul Caprio

*** UPDATE *** The fear begins…

State Sen. Debbie Halvorson is concerned a new program to help homeless veterans could fall victim to the state budget crisis.

“I’m very worried about the governor cutting that money right out of the budget,” the Democrat from Crete said. “Every day, George W. Bush is creating more and more war veterans. We have an obligation to help these returning veterans.” […]

“We are going to have to make some incredibly difficult decisions in the coming weeks. Any program that is not one of the governor’s key priorities is vulnerable,” said Kelley Quinn, a spokeswoman for the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget.

She added those priorities are health care and education.

Quinn declined to comment on whether the homeless veterans program is vulnerable.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:10 pm

Comments

So, it looks to me like they sent him a budget that was lean in pork and other areas, but thicker in his ‘priority’ areas like healthcare and education. They may be fighting the last battle - given his line item vetoes and reductions last year, that strategy might make sense, but it’s a whole new year.

Comment by OAD Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:29 am
My guess is that that this year we will see MOUs by guv And Emil. Wonder if they’ll be worth the paper they are printed upon?

Comment by A Citizen Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 11:27 am
New revenue would not guarantee that there wouldn’t be program cuts. The gov. could very well choose to still cut and move the new revenue wherever he wants to. That what he has done in the past. MOUs or no MOUs. I think the Madigan budget is structured to prevent that–even after cuts, there is no additional money to move around.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 12:01 pm
Rich Miller wrote, “What he’s gonna do is threaten huge cuts and hope the interest groups, vendors and contractors put pressure on House Democrats, so that they in turn will force Speaker Michael Madigan to allow floor votes on the pension obligation bond and the special funds skims.”

How do you think House Democrats will be able to force Madigan to do anything? What real leverage do they actually have over him?

Also, I think we’re still missing the big picture, longer term issue here. What structural changes have Blagojevich and House Democrats proposed to reduce the likelihood that we will again get stuck in budget gridlock? Have they proposed an automatic continuation of the previous year’s budget in cases where the Governor and legislature can’t seem to agree upon and pass a new budget within a reasonable amount of time?

All parties involved should know that this is a problem that is likely to reoccur; so my question is, what are they doing to fix the problem for the long term? What we need are sustainability and future focus here.

Comment by Squideshi Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:26 pm
===How do you think House Democrats will be able to force Madigan to do anything? What real leverage do they actually have over him?===

You must’ve missed this line…

===I’m thinking he’ll have to make the cuts anyway, however.===

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:27 pm
Rich Miller wrote, “You must’ve missed this line…”

No. I saw that; but my thinking was, if you believe that Blagojevich’s strategy is to set up a scenario where House Democrats are putting pressure on Madigan, then obviously, Blagojevich must believe that House Democrats actually have significant leverage over Madigan. If not, why else would he try to create such a scenario?

Comment by Squideshi Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:38 pm
===If not, why else would he try to create such a scenario?===

Um, where have you been for the past six years?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:40 pm
Rich Miller wrote, “Um, where have you been for the past six years?”

LOL. You predicted Blagojevich would try to do this. So are you’re saying that (1) Blagojevich is mistakenly putting stock in a belief that House Democrats can actually force Madigan to allow floor votes, (2) Blagojevich is just being spiteful and trying to cause trouble, (3) this is just your personal prediction about what Blagojevich’s next random action (without any reasoning behind it) will be, or (4) something entirely else?

I really am curious, because if Blagojevich has found a way to truly put pressure on Madigan, I want to know about it. I haven’t thought of a real good way to do that other than going into Madigan’s district and doing some serious and sustained anti-Madigan campaigning sufficiently in advance of the next election.

Comment by Squideshi Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:49 pm
“Any program that is not one of the governor’s key priorities is vulnerable”

That line with and governor with a pen in his hand is a scary thought. Who has annoyed the governor this year? Who is getting a favor this year? If we had a governor that didn’t play the such games and really went line by line to see what could go or at least just hold study would be one thing. But the ‘governor’s key priorities’ and what’s good for the state/citizens ect. is the biggest problem in letting Blago do this. As the saying goes, the man would cut off his nose to spite his face.

Comment by Princeville Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:53 pm
Madigan must certainly be the happiest guy in the world when he wakes up every morning, knowing that when he gets to the office, (Yes he goes to work every day) some new round of puffery and disillusionment awaits him from the guv’s office. He has effectively reduced the guv to a blindfolded Pinata thrashing buffoon! This time around though guv may well go too far and alienate Emil and find himself the odd man out in the game of musical budget bucks!

Comment by A Citizen Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:56 pm
Rich is right on this one.

The Gov simply is out of plays and the ‘leak’ of the ‘memo’ with follow up by Emil, Cross, the Unions, tax-eaters and Punkin Haid was his desperate attempt to salvage something. His only real hope is a capital plan that gives him enough ‘undesignated money’ to play with as he sees fit.

The Gov will have to make some cuts. Those cuts that come sooner will be those that will make Madigan look bad. Those cuts that will come later, if ever, are those that will make Blago look bad.

This is a classic case of ‘if you don’t feed it, it will die’, and Madigan knows that.

Comment by Crystal Clear Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 1:57 pm
Rich
any update on how much Blagos plane rides are costing the state? I’m guessing the money for the blago air force wont be cut in the budget.

Comment by fed up Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:29 pm
In the grand scheme of things, it’s a rounding error of a rounding error.

That said, it is one of those issues that can resonate with citizens: Cut people off needed programs, but continue to fly around in comfort.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:41 pm
The Illusion:
“I’m very worried about the governor cutting that money right out of the budget,” the Democrat from Crete said. “Every day, George W. Bush is creating more and more war veterans. We have an obligation to help these returning veterans.” - State Majority Leader Halvorson

The Reality:
==So far, the program has served seven veterans, said Deanna Mackey, program director for homeless and displaced veterans. Of those veterans, some served in Iraq, others in Vietnam and still others during peacetime, she said. “I wouldn’t say there is a connection between being homeless and being a veteran,” Mackey said.==

So Halvorson is making news about supporting a program that spends $1,700,000 a year for 7 veterans that has served in Vietnam, Iraq and, um - peacetime service. The maximum capacity for the program is 15. Considering that only a handful of Iraq veterans are actually being served under this multi-million dollar program, their number could double and still have seats left over on a short yellow bus.

But it is Bush’s fault? LOL!

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:43 pm
So is there another “leaders’ meeting” scheduled, or are just into the “glaring at each other to see who blinks first” phase of the proceedings?

Comment by Muskrat Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:44 pm
The governor has to be real careful here.

He can fuss and fulminate all he wants about Madigan and House Democrats, but the reality is he will wear the jacket for the cuts that hurt. Fair or not, that’s public perception.

This isn’t Washington circa 90s, a Clinton-Gingrich showdown that he can work to his advantage.

It’s 2008. Springfield isn’t Washington, and the public is paying even less attention to details. Madigan obviously is no Gingrich in any way, shape or form. And governor, for the last time, you’re no Clinton.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:47 pm
I caught a pro capital-plan ad today on WBBM 780 over lunch, it mentioned the the 700K jobs and the federal matching funds.

It was from the Three Rivers Contractors or something, I don’t seem to recal their web site. It had a tag line like “we are ready to to fix it, patch it, widen it and build it” or something like that.

They asked you to call your rep.

Comment by OneMan Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 2:57 pm
Blago intones: “Among the items Blagojevich suggested were a hiring freeze, stopping all “non-essential” state spending and ending programs that “do not address key priorities of the state.””

…Sounds like corporate America during a downturn… Tough choices, yes, but decisions need to be made.

–

One, I hope that ad didn’t try to claim Illinois would “lose” Federal dollars… Several politicians, including some Congressmen, have been going around trying to scare people by claiming the Federal matching funds may magically disappear if a capital bill isn’t passed.

The Federal dollars are there and will stay there. What we’re missing out on is that money’s purchasing power as ‘construction inflation’ is outpacing other inflationary measures.

Comment by Rob_N Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 3:11 pm
I can’t figure out which is worse, the democrats causing a complete breakdown of the state government, or the republicans having no real viable answers.

I do find it interesting that it took the dems 6 years to figure out the no tax all spend policy would bite them in the long run. I hope the 5 years of pork was worth it, it will take 25 years to fix this mess.

Comment by the Patriot Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 3:12 pm
There won’t be a complete breakdown of state government.

State agencies and the nonprofits they support to the tune of millions always exaggerate what they need to run their organizations. It’s part of the game. Maybe some of those six figure nonprofit execs could forego part of next year’s raise, or hold off on the new agency-provided SUV. State agencies could slow their patronage hiring slightly, especially since most patronage hires don’t do much work anyway. A hiring freeze is a great idea. Fewer state employee jaunts to Springfield or Chicago and more videoconferencing. Cut back on some of those not very productive state contracts. The list is endless.

And the legislators, of course, could vote down their nice upcoming raises.

Cut away. The guv could cut pretty deep before getting to anything substantive.

Comment by Cassandra Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 3:29 pm
“A hiring freeze is a great idea” (Cassandra)

Uh, that would have to be upperlower and upper management. Has the governor allowed any front line workers hired under his admistration? Ryan tossed them out left and right and Blago has never replaced them plus lost more through retirement and a few layoffs. When a site is down a third of it’s workforce now what is it for Blago to announce a hiring freeze? Worthless air spent.

“Cut away. The guv could cut pretty deep before getting to anything substantive” (Cassandra)

That’s likely true in some areas in some agencies but way too general a statement. Once again the cutting as in hiring freeze gets down at the bottom.

Comment by Princeville Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 4:08 pm
My prediction:

Nothing or almost nothing gets done on June 24th, a lot gets done in terms of revenues (gaming, etc.)and the “sweeps” bill for special funds - and with sweeps at a higher level than the earlier $350 million cap on June 25th. But no action on the budget until one more Special Session day on June 30th just for final budget numbers.

This adds up to just 3 days, as the Senate needs — and not long enough for House members to be sitting around doing nothing and therefore starting impeachment informational hearings.

Nothing happens until the last possible moment around here, so the June 30th supplemental budget action should surprise no one if I happen to be correct.

Comment by Capitol View Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 4:34 pm
Cassandra, you need some new talking points, sweetie.

Some number crunchers with fresher figures than AA can fix my rounding errors, but here’s the deal: The budget hole, including a) the $2 billion that most everyone agrees upon, b) the structural deficit that has never been fixed, and c) the effect on b) of Blago’s solution to a) has either never been calculated or never been publicly released. Regardless of the amount, I would suggest two points:

1) The budget can not be balanced solely by a) a hiring freeze, let alone laying off State employees and b) by cutting “fraud, waste and abuse.” Taking Federal and other non-GRF/Road out of the mix and walling off only State Police and Corrections (we’ll assume that the front office bloat in both agencies is offset by frontline staff shortages that need to be fixed for this example) and taking that PS/Fringe down by 50%, I’m still short at least a billion. Open up your budget CD’s (no more books) or go to the Comp’s Website, and find me a billion in F, W, and A. Bill Holland has found a lot of misfeasance, stupidity, arrogance,, and maybe crime, but AA doesn’t recall that even his crew has toted up a bunch of auditable peed-away money.

I’m no grant expert, but I don’t see any grantee agency heads around here in the ‘Patch driving any fancy “taxpayer-provided SUV”s. The ones I know personally are struggling to retain staff because the State is months behind in reimbursement, hasn’t raised rates in years, and generally has total nimrods overseeing their programs.

Cut the unneeded travel? Absolutely. Oh, but that might force GUMB-y to allow CMS to actually write some Travel Rules which would take the power away from GUMB-y and which would involve, let’s see, oh, never mind.

2) Why would the people of Illinois want to see a bunch of discredited proposals that were stupid last month and think they’re smart now?

In brief, the markets haven’t improved- bad time for pension bonds. Debt, schmedt.

Crunch the numbers-Lotto is worth $5 billion- why should we assume State can get $10 for 80% of it?

Gaming-Zero analysis of gaming saturation point, why tracks need subsidy, why Pritzkers need subsidies, yada yada yada.

Young people, leave Illinois now. If it isn’t the floods, State Government will drown you.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 5:37 pm
Rich Miller wrote, “That said, it is one of those issues that can resonate with citizens: Cut people off needed programs, but continue to fly around in comfort.”

I will vouch for that. As a resident of Will County, the fastest growing county in the nation, I know all too well the frustration of residents stuck sitting in traffic on I-55. How convenient for Blagojevich that he never needs to sit in that traffic on his way to or from Springfield.

Comment by Squideshi Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 6:27 pm
Blago intones: “Among the items Blagojevich suggested were a hiring freeze, stopping all “non-essential” state spending and ending programs that “do not address key priorities of the state.””

Blago announced doing these very things the first year of his first term, as part of “cleaning up” after Ryan’s administration.

And he never canceled the “freeze”. I think you could look it up with a keyword search of old newspaper articles from that time.

“hiring freeze” is code and has nothing to do with actually freezing hires, as they added a bunch of new “management” people in my section… at least I *think they did, because while they got an office carved out for them, they have not been inside of it in 11 months now, preferring to “work” or whatever it is they do, in Chicago. But we’re holding their empty office here for them, I guess so they’ll have a place to sleep off the Christmas pizza party. No a “freeze” is just an excuse to try and go around the CMS hiring rules and safeguards so croneys, carpetbaggers, and clout-assisted living can be awarded to Blago friends.
it was under this “freeze” that they went around veterean’s preferences to move jobs to where the favored wanted to live, to change job qualifications so the unqualified could have a job they knew not how to do.

Meanwhile, they slashed the actual working staffs not just tot he bone but into the marrow, to create “head count” room for these invaders.

our office would LOVE it if they actually froze hiring, and the so-called management people we’re saddled with went to work for a living.

Comment by Mister Roarke Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 10:41 pm
Blago can write all the press releases he wants, the capital plan is deader than disco for the year. He can accept the operations budget and hack away with his veto pen, or call special sessions where he’s as likely to get impeached as he is to get a better budget, but either way he’s going to take all the blame for the cuts that make people angry, nobody else.

I believe that with Rod now crippled by Rezko and not getting any better over time, Emil is going to break away at some point, if only for self-preservation. And if he doesn’t, I’m fine with Emil and Rod going out together in a blaze of… well, whatever it is Emil smokes these days. They cannot defeat Madigan, because regardless of why he’s doing it, Madigan’s path on this is ultimately the right way to go. It will come down to a tax increase or massive spending cuts, because everybody wants to get to Heaven, yet nobody ever wants to die. In their hearts, the House Repubs know and believe this too. They just look at it from the cuts point of view and not the tax increase side, but the logic behind the math is inescapable. To everyone but Rod.

Comment by Gregor Monday, Jun 16, 08 @ 10:54 pm
Rich -

Thanks for saying this - I’ve been saying it for a long time, but you’re a better writer (and have a blog). Madigan may be slow, but eventually he figures out an opponent. FY 2009 will be the second budget, unless something changes, where he has figured out how to deprive Blagojevich and Filan of fund sweeps. Per se, don’t think Madigan is opposed to them, just he prefers the FY 2006 model - fund sweeps in the budget implementation legislation. I think Madigan would rather have a root canal without novocaine before ever again giving Blagojevich and Filan the authority to decide which funds to sweep.

Personally, I think Madigan is trying to force a fix of the tax structure and its lack of natural growth BEFORE the 2010 election? Anyone feel the same? Different?

Comment by Frustrated Tuesday, Jun 17, 08 @ 6:34 am
Frustrated wrote, “Personally, I think Madigan is trying to force a fix of the tax structure and its lack of natural growth BEFORE the 2010 election?”

I suppose that depends on what you mean by “fix.”

Comment by Squideshi Tuesday, Jun 17, 08 @ 8:20 am