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Illinois

* The setup…

DuPage County State’s Attorney Joe Birkett is poised to make a third attempt for statewide office in two years.

Birkett, who ran unsuccessfully for attorney general and lieutenant governor, told the Daily Herald he is exploring a possible run in 2010 for attorney general or governor. […]

“It’s going to be tough for any Republican in 2010, especially if there is a President Obama in the White House,” said Paul Green, director of Roosevelt University’s School of Policy Studies. “So, I would think the best thing he can do is get out there early, pick his spots and start raising money like mad.”

Birkett isn’t expected to make a final decision for several months, but he has hired a political consulting firm, lined up fundraising events that begin next week, and is already touring the state to deliver his message of tough-on-crime and economic reform to potential voters.

* The question: Does Birkett have a chance in either the primary or the general elections? Explain fully, please. Thanks.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 10:54 am

Comments

Wait, is Oberweis busy?

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 10:59 am
Sure he has a chance to win. Even if Obama wins, traditionally the “off year” election is tough on the POTUSA’s incumbent party.

Having said that, I’d prefer he run for AG and let someone like my guy Bill Brady run for Governor.

Further having said that, I don’t like Joe and he should not have criticized the police who arrested his son.

Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 10:59 am
Do pigs fly (by themselves)?

Comment by reasonable 1 Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:00 am
C’mon, people. You don’t have to take Birkett seriously, but please take the question seriously.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:01 am
Joe has a real good chance in a primary because his name is known to the voters and he brings forth a conservative image and stance,

In the general election it all depends on who his opponent is!!

Comment by storman norman Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:08 am
He doesn’t stand a chance for the AG post if Lisa runs again as the incumbent, for reasons that are obvious. Better shot for governor, at least in the primary, as his name will resonate with the Chicago-area voters, his GOP affiliation will resonate more with the downstate populace; and the expected field of candidates on the Republican side will be a weak lot.

Comment by The Doc Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:15 am
I wouldn’t be so sure that a President Obama would be a problem for an attractive, moderate Republican candidate (no wacky right-wingers, please).

New presidents always make mistakes their first years in office and of course their supporters become aware that there are limits to what they can change–if anything. I would expect a certain amount of disillusionment on the national level by 2010 and that could operate to the benefit of a Republican locally, especially if our Blago continues to be unpopular and/or there is a major split in the Dem primary and the losers are bitter. Bipartisanship is, after all, becoming quite trendy.

Comment by Cassandra Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:17 am
“I found Rome brick, I left it marble.” - Augustus Caesar.

To play on the metaphor, Birkett simply doesn’t have the leadership qualities to transform himself from brick into marble.

For whatever reason, DuPage County pols don’t translate well into statewide office, and Birkett is a good example of that problem. Suburbanites like Birkett fail to realize that most of the state doesn’t live in a protected bubble like they do. What works in DuPage, simply doesn’t work in most of the state. As a result, they come off as far too coldhearted and insensitive about the problems most people face. His nickname “brickhead” is well earned and self-inflicted.

Comment by anon sequitor Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:17 am
Well that explains the e-mail I have been getting from him the last couple of weeks.

I think he would have a shot at AG or even Sec. Of State, as for governor. I think it is a long shot.

Comment by OneMan Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:22 am
I guess its time to start talking about Rolando Cruz and Jeannine Nacarico again. It’s horrible that people’s misfortune gets politicized, but the public must know Mr. Birket’s role in sending an innocent man to death row for a crime he did not commit. Fortunately, Mr. Cruz wasnt executed.

Comment by Anon Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:26 am
I would like to see Birkett on the ticket again. A.G. seems to be the natural place for him. Lisa is not running for A.G., I think we all know she is wanting to move up. I think the Governors race is full all ready. Most of us now know the three people who we will see out in front of that race.

Comment by GOPJay Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:27 am
He needs to cast himself in the Jim Edgar mold, as someone who is competent, even-tempered, and not overly partisan or given to moral crusades. He needs to show that he could work with the other party. It’ll never happen, but sending Brian Dugan to the chair would help him more than any 10 image consultants.

Comment by The Unlicensed Hand Surgeon Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:27 am
When he ran for attorney general in 2002 I thought he was heavy on the whole prosecutor trip. I hope he learned something from that election. In which case I would say that he could make it if instead of being a prosecutor he could just talk like an attorney general. It seems to me attorney generals in Illinois doesn’t involve themselves in criminal prosecutions or at least not that I’ve heard of. As for Governor, he definitely need to drop the prosecutor trip. We might want to see a man be a bit more gubernatorial. Hopefully he can strike a balance between tough and diplomacy.

Comment by Levois Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:30 am
I respectfully disagree with Green. I think 2010 could potentially be a year the GOP could pick up one or two statewide offices in Illinois.

Chicago, Cook and the state are run by Democrats. One-party rule is generally anathema in a diverse state like Illinois. Plus, I think it’s pretty clear Mr. Fitzgerald and his Merry Band of Prosecutors have so many ongoing projects at all levels of government that we’ll be reading about scandal after scandal for years to come.

Plus, I think there’s something of a weariness among all voters of Chicago rule — — and right now, with the exception of Durbin, everyone in office is a Dem with a 312 area code. A good GOP candidate from downstate or the collars who isn’t a Chicago basher could make some noise.

The result by 2010 could be a throw-the-rascals-out mood among voters

Could Birkett win a primary? Sure, on name recognition. Could he win a general? Yes, if the above forecast plays out.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:36 am
He has won statewide primaries twice and gave it a good run in the 2002 general for AG. He would once again be a credible AG candidate. But I don’t see him getting any traction in a run for Gov. He certainly didn’t get anywhere in 2006 when he was exploring the possibility and his recent push for a public safety sales tax increase (and the subsequent DuPage blessed RTA sales tax increase) will hurt him in a primary campaign for governor.

Comment by Slightly Right Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:40 am
There are a few things working against Joe Birkett and the first thing is Joe himself. He is just not a likeable person, in the news at least. The second is Illinois is a blue state, getting bluer. And, lastly, I predict that Lisa Madigan does not run for Governor and runs for re-election until a spot on the Illinois Supreme Court opens up.

And, the “Chicago backlash” is a myth. There are far more voters in Cook County, and the metropolitan Chicago area to more than offset any downstate insurgency. Downstate has more play in a democratic and maaybe republican primary than they will in a general election in the future.

Comment by Joe in the Know Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:51 am
I partially agree with OneMan… His best shot would be at SecState in a primary. Is Jesse White running again (I forget if he’s declared his intentions)?

If Sec. White is running again, the Republican is a sacrificial lamb anyway.

Birkett has little chance at getting through a primary for AG, and even less so for governor.

Comment by Rob_N Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:58 am
Birkett is considered competent, but very uninteresting to voters. He is a VanillaMan, without the Vanilla. Or sugar. Or salt. Or taste, actually. He isn’t interesting. Period.

He is predictable. He looks like what he says. He isn’t listened to by voters. He fits a stereotype of GOP candidate that in a media-saturated, celebrity-obsessed world is the antithesis.

Take a look at how long Birkett had his campaign debt. He couldn’t pay it off. He didn’t have enough people interested in him to pay it off. To erase it, he settled for a Lt. Gov race with Topinka.

So candidates like Birkett are reactors. If they have a weak opponent, they have a shot. But if their political opponent has more than a pulse and a smile, then he isn’t favored.

Green is way-off. 2010 is an eternity. To assume that Illinois will be GOP unfriendly in another two years is a stretch. If Obama is actually elected then there will be a natural backlash in 2010. 2002 was an abnormality, not the norm.

Birkett needs to raise a lot of money and choose wisely. While he could win a GOP primary, I don’t see him beating any Democrat in a general election except Blagojevich and thats with Blagojevich wearing handcuffs. Illinoians will elect emotions over intellect and heart over mind, and Birkett stirs no emotions or hearts.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:59 am
He won’t likely beat Lisa..perhaps if he ties her to daddy and gov and all the issues they have caused, he could stand a chance. My advice is to run away from Lisa.

I like Joe and the state will be more friendly to the GOP as the worst is over given the fact that Balgo is running things.

Obama will be running for Releaction to senate, so he will have coattails.

Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 12:17 pm
Im afraid that if Joe Birkett thinks he can win office in 2010 then he is delusional and probably shouldn’t be allowed to continue to practice law, much less serve as DuPage County States Attorney.

Comment by fedup dem Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 12:31 pm
People know Peraica is a hot-head, but he is still the people’s champion because he relentlessly goes after Stroger. Who else is there?

Birkett ran, or threatened to run some young (I think around 28) against Peraica in the primary for S.A. This really got a lot of Cook GOPers mad at Birkett.

If he runs, he’ll get a cold shoulder from many in Cook. This is critical because you need to stop some of the severe bleeding in Cook to even have a lifeline.

Don’t underestimate the seething anger at Birkett. Maybe it will disappear if he wins a primary.

Comment by Beetus Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 12:35 pm
Beetus… What election are you referencing when you say that Birkett got a young guy to run against peraica for state’s attorney? What year was this?

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 12:44 pm
As long as Lisa’s not running against him, I believe Joe has a chance to win, especially if it’s the A.G. gig. If it plans carefully and unites now, the GOP can quietly make a big splash in 2010, if not sooner (as in this year). George Ryan’s now a distant memory, and Blago has proven to be worse. As much as Joe’s a conservative, he’ll need to do what Gov. Edgar did and woo the moderates, particularly in suburban Cook County. In the past four years the state GOP has failed to field a viable candidate for statewide office. It needs someone dynamic, and who can stir up enthusiasm and passion within Republican and independent voters; I’m not sure if Birkett’s the right one, but among those who have run the past four years, he’s clearly the best the GOP has to offer right now. Even if a Jindal-like figure won’t emerge, the Illinois GOP needs to advocate it’s about change for the better in 2008 and beyond.

Comment by Roy Cone Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:01 pm
Well, since we know that Lisa Madigan will be relinquishing her Illinois attorney-general position to run for Governor of Illinois on the Democrat ticket, I guess that will leave Joe Birkett a fighting chance for that spot. He is known to be tough on crime which always appeals to people. Joe won’t make it as Governor though due to the collateral damage of being tied to loser Judy Bar Topinka when she ran for governor. I liked Judy but she was too strongly linked in the public’s mind (rightly or wrongly, it mattered not) with our corrupt former governor George Ryan.

Bill Brady has already been given the nod by the Illinois GOP Party to represent them for the governor’s slot. Joe simply couldn’t make it in that slot due to his previously failed effort for lieutenant governor. Illinois conservatives deserted Joe when he linked up with Judy Barr Topinka as soon as she agreed to pay off his old campaign debts that Joe was still carrying around his neck like a dead albatross. Conservative Republicans are still looking for that man that “can’t be swayed by the Almighty Dollar”. It is like going in search of a carrier pigeon or the holy grail. If that guy still exists out there someplace today, he/she is certainly well-hidden.

Comment by Quiet Meditation Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:13 pm
Anonymous, this is from the Tribune. It wasn’t a formal endodrsement, but it was close…

===DuPage County State’s Atty. Joe Birkett, who last November was the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, the No. 2 spot on the statewide ballot, attended a rally where he heaped praise on Devine’s top assistant, Bob Milan. […]

===Afterward, Birkett said in an interview that he was not making a “formal political endorsement.”

===“I’m here as a friend,” said Birkett, noting he’s known Milan for most of Milan’s career in the state’s attorney’s office.

===Birkett added, “The message has got to be sent: no matter who the candidate is, that the office of the prosecutor is too important to have it just filled as a political stepping stone to higher office. It’s not a place for a politician. It’s a place for a prosecutor who understands and has a deep appreciation of the power of the indictment.”===

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:19 pm
By the way, it took less than 5 seconds to find the story. Try Google.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:19 pm
his chances of winning begs the question of who might face in the General election

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:22 pm
Birkett backed a sales tax increase in DuPage, endorsed Bob Milan in the democratic primary in Cook County, and tried to get a 28 year old cousin of his on the ballot in the 2008 Cook GOP primary against Peraica. This is a republican?
Please. Birkett is in bed with Schillestorm and his crooked friends who are bringing democratic style leadership to DuPage County. We don’t need Chicago-style politics in DuPage. Keep tax increases, dirty politics and Victor Reyes where they belong, in Crook County.

Comment by Beetus Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:04 pm
I don’t think he has the strength or support to raise the money a successful campaign would require, so, no. However it is now time to ask J. Edgar to gather his MSI buddies together and “Save” the Ill. GOP. Doing so now will allow him to fawn all over himself for a month or so and then bow out while enough time is left to mount a solid campaign by a truly committed candidate.

Comment by A Citizen Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:25 pm
The mention of Edgar scares me. We have now let him have an impact on 2 elections. If I remember correctly neither one turned out very well (Keyes, Topinka) I think if Birkett wants to jump in a statewide race I think he should. It’s time we get energized about a candidate again. If you don’t like him, the pick your horse and get in….

Comment by GOPJay Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:37 pm
I think right now a GOP statewide candidate has to be an “inspirational” type of leader with a lot of advertising dollars. Birkett hasn’t really shown that he has either to date. Which isn’t to say that it’s impossible for him, either, but he’d have to get very visible, very vocal, and very spendy-spendy.

Don’t forget that should Obama win, this will be an off year election in the first half of his first term, meaning he should be able to effectively blame the prior administration for whatever should ail the nation at the time (assuming he has a competent press staff).

I think a statewide GOP win next election is a long shot, even for Jim Edgar.

Comment by Snidely Whiplash Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:49 pm
I suppose that anything is possible; but considering his track record, I sure hope he doesn’t succeed.

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:49 pm
The fact we’re even discussing a Birkett candidacy for any statewide office is simply proof that the GOPs have no farm team whatsoever. They need new blood. Remember, Birkett is wasting truckloads of DuPage tax dollars attempting to get a death sentence against Dugan for the Nicarico murder (despite the fact Dugan is already in prison for the rest of his life and is no threat to the public) simply to appear “tough” on crime. Just what we need for statewide office. Time for Birkett to move off the stage, not to run for a bigger one.

Comment by Bluefish Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:02 pm
Birkett nearly beat Lisa Madigan in 2002 and he was greatly outraised. He was also beaten in a terrible year for Illinois Republicans. I think that a step up for Lisa and a decent fundraising would allow him to seriously compete for the AG spot. So yes, he could win the primary for the AG office and he could win the general as well.

For governor, however, I don’t think Joe would get out of the primary. He’s too typecast as a prosecutor, and two other statewide losses might stop people from voting to allow him a run at the highest statewide office other than U.S. Senator.

Comment by Team Sleep Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:24 pm
Has anybody made the claim Birkett has done a good job as state’s attorney?

The GOP brand has major problems and, in Illinois, lacks infrastructure. And the party is sharply divided.

Birkett is welcome to run. I’m sure the Dem running against him will be thankful to face a candidate that is easy to beat. The Dems know how to go negative against Birkett and he brings a bunch of his own enemies to the table.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:27 pm
Yes, he has a chance of winning the primary, but he would probably lose the general election. Too many Illinois Republicans ran for statewide office, lost, and ran in a second statewide campaign, thinking that the first campaign would help them win the second race. However, those candidates usually lost the second race. In 1996 and ’98, Al Salvi ran statewide races and lost both of them. In 2002, ’04, and ’06, Jim Oberweis ran statewide campaigns and lost all of them. In 2002 and ’06 Joe Birkett ran statewide campaigns and lost both of them. In 2004 and ’06, Steve Rauschenberger ran statewide campaigns and lost both of them. If Birkett runs for a statewide office, he would probably lose again.

In 2010, Rep. Judy Biggert should retire from Congress, and Birkett should run for her seat. He doesn’t live in that district, but that didn’t stop Melissa Bean and Dan Seals from running in districts in which they don’t live.

Comment by PhilCollins Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 4:39 pm
Did Birkett take Rezcko money? I though I read where he did?

Comment by PoliticoPete Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 5:16 pm
Can I also add that I am tired of hearing Paul Green quoted all the time? I have personally found him to be very biased against the Illinois Green Party.

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 5:59 pm
LOL. I’ll make sure he knows.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 6:04 pm
NO WAY….The old folks need to stay out of the mix. I hope the GOP learned their lesson from last time and stop this primary battleground that leaves us with candidates that can’t win. The time is right for a reclamation of the mansion as well as other potential offices if handled right. McKenna needs to be a chairman & start uniting & stave off the “would be governors” out there & get behing a good qualified candidate.

Comment by annon Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 6:07 pm
GOPJay wins.

Comment by T.J. Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 7:02 pm
Brady and Joe have the same problems. One is that neither can raise the cash to run. Second they both screwed up in the last Gov election. Brady lied and stayed in even though he had no chance of winning telling everyone that he would raise 3 million and only got to $300,000. Then at the end claiming he had a poll that had him at 32% and Oby at 18 when it was opposite. Joe went over to the Dark side and is done with the base! Brady is done with the base as well he has already said it will take $10 to 12 million to run this race he has already put it out of reach.
We need someone who can reach out to both sides and start to rebuild the burnt village.

Comment by RAI Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 7:49 pm
I feel Joe Birkett has a good chance at winning the GOP primary for AG….considering Lisa runs for Guv…& Dillard isn’t running for AG. Birkett can use the “tough prosecutor who’ll fight against corruption” & his experience as DuPages Prosecutor to win the office.

I think AG is a good fit for him…Gov would be a few years from now.

Comment by scoot Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 8:26 pm
Joe might be able to take the AG spot. However, he’d definitely have to tone down the conservative bandwagon he gets on fairly often, and focus on positioning himself as a qualified AG. You have to admire him for his principles, but when he gets going, he really gets going, and it puts off the crowds he needs to win.

I’d like to hear who the three are that GOPJay thinks are going to be out front in the Guv’s race. I’d guess Brady and Oberweis are two, but don’t know whether the third is Rutherford or someone else.

Comment by Anonymous Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 8:41 pm
Cruz and Hernandez thats it, i hope he runs it will sow up an easy victory for another democrat

Comment by Bomber Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 9:14 pm
Brady and Cross are the first two. I will have to leave the third name out for now. Although I would think anyone present at the convention earlier this month will know the name.

Comment by GOPJay Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:03 pm
RAI

If you really think Brady has lost the base, you are too outside politics and what is going on in the Illinois GOP.

The only knock on Brady right now is fundraising - a flaw that a couple of large donors could erase in an instant.

In a year that the GOP NEEDS to do well, he’s the only guy out there that could do two key things: 1) Continue to hold conservatives without being perceived as a right wing nut, AND 2) Get the support of the rank-and-file establishment.

You look at the last two primaries for Governor, and the eventual nominee that lost the general was missing one of those two parts. As far as I’ve seen, Brady is the ONLY guy that has a chance at running with both of those on his side. Not to say he’ll get them … just that he has a chance at it, which would be an enormous step forward for the party and its chances in November.

Comment by Amuzing Myself Thursday, Jun 19, 08 @ 8:31 am
Rich Miller wrote, “LOL. I’ll make sure he knows.”

Please do. I heard him on WBEZ the other day commenting on Democrats kicking Green Party congressional candidates off the ballot. Not only did he TWICE refer to what the Green Party was doing as either “whining” or “moaning” but he also felt it necessary to invoke the 2000 presidential election (for which there is PLENTY of evidence to show that Democrats are entirely responsible for the result.) This isn’t the first time that Green has been heard to be using Democratic Party buzzwords/framing and seemingly defending the Democratic Party against the Green Party.

Comment by Squideshi Thursday, Jun 19, 08 @ 11:40 am
Will Joe Birkett apologize for what he did to Rolando Cruz and Alejandro Hernandez? If he does, he’ll have my vote. If he doesn’t, I’ll have to vote against him, even if it is for some crappy machine Dem. from Chicago.

Comment by Lynn S. Thursday, Jun 19, 08 @ 11:03 pm