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Wednesday flood watch

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Illinois

* Oy…

The swollen Mississippi River has flowed over the top of 19 levees in Missouri, Iowa and Illinois, and another 29 levees are at risk, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers said on Wednesday

* More levee trouble…

Water spilled over two levees on the Mississippi River on Wednesday, surging into west-central Illinois, covering fertile farmland and pushing residents from their homes, officials said.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for the Mississippi Valley said water flowed over the top of one levee, but local officials had a different account, reporting that the levee — near Meyer, Illinois — breached in two places about 6:20 a.m., pouring water into Hancock and Adams counties.

“It’s kind of a sad day,” said Sheriff John Jefferson of Hancock County. “People put in a lot of manpower [to build up the levees] and all was lost.”

The floodwaters will cover thousands of acres of farmland from Warsaw to Quincy — about a 25-mile stretch of the river.

* More here

* Further downriver…

As the Mississippi River rises and the crest approaches the St. Louis region, roads, ferries and the river itself are being closed.

The river is expected to crest here on Monday, according to the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. The river is not expected to reach 1993 flood levels.

The river was measured at 30.06 feet in Alton on Tuesday afternoon and expected to rise to 33 feet by Monday. The river is considered at a major flood stage when it reaches 34 feet in Alton. It crested there at 42.72 feet in the flood of 1993.

* The governor’s public schedule for today…

**Governor’s Public Schedule**
For Wednesday, June 18, 2008

QUINCY – Governor Rod R. Blagojevich will take an aerial tour and visit ground operations in flood-impacted areas along the Mississippi River in Western Illinois.

WHO: Governor Rod R. Blagojevich

WHAT: **PHOTO OP** Gov. Blagojevich will assist in sandbagging efforts and visit volunteers.

WHEN: 1:00 p.m.

WHERE: Pike County Fairgrounds
Pleasant Hills, IL

WHAT: **PHOTO OP** Gov. Blagojevich will be thanking national guard members and volunteers and surveying damage at the Sny Levee.

WHEN: 2:00 p.m.

WHERE: Sny Levee at Pike Station

WHAT: Gov. Blagojevich will be holding a media briefing on flood recovery efforts in Illinois.

WHEN: 3:30 p.m.

WHERE: Unified Area Command Center at the Oakley Lindsay Center KY and S 3rd St. Quincy, IL

* Lt. Gov. Quinn is also on the move…

Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn’s office says he’s headed to see flood-damaged areas in the Quad Cities and then to he’ll go to Quincy to help fill sandbags.

* More stories…

* USDA mulls all options on Midwest flood aid

* Corn cost up on new flood fears

* Salvation Army responding to historic flooding

* Flood means added security measures

* Bridge decision cause for concern

* Adams County Board targets water contamination

* Lake County floodwaters receding, officials say

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 12:18 pm

Comments

The loss in human (and animal) lives from this terrible flooding will be the prime consideration. The emotional and financial losses to the nation will be huge. The Midwest’s flooding and crop losses will directly impact all of us “negatively” at the gas pump (corn used for ethanol, soybeans used for biodiesel) and at the supermarket (corn, soybeans. wheat, etc.).

Inflation was already taking a greater toll on our elderly who live on fixed incomes than the actual government and media numbers would lead us to believe. These ongoing disaster events simply make the need for both Obama and McCain to choose as their running mate someone who “truly” has a good grasp of the economic engine that runs our country. The nation’s economy directly impacts every single facet that we are dealing with whether it be Iraq, homeland security, illegal immigration, taxes, and crime in this country.

I am not saying who the best man/woman would be for Barack Obama or John McCain to choose as their vice-president. All I would ask is that they choose this #2 individual “wisely” and without taking partisan politics into consideration. Hopefully. it will be someone who is not already deeply entrenched into partisan politics but rather a newcomer who simply is the “brightest and the best” for our country in it’s time of need.

Comment by Quiet Meditation Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 12:55 pm
Thank you for posting these every day. Greatly appreciated.

Comment by IlliniPundit Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:03 pm
I posted some of this on yesterday’s flood thread at midnight. I am reposting it here with additions.

Heavy rain is the immediate cause of the flooding, but humans are the root cause of the catastrophe.

1) We build in harms way
2) Human alteration of the watershed (farming & urbanization) puts the water in the river faster, increasing the volume in the river after a storm
3) Human alteration of the river channel (wing dams, levees, etc.) tends to increase the stage height for the same volume.

2 & 3 make harm’s way (1) cover a larger area

Statistical analyses of the flood record is used to project the flood recurrence interval. Unfortunately, current research indicates that the models used today do not take into account human impact and climate change as well as they should. Plus, recasting the floodplain with higher projected elevations for the “design floods” (ie. 50-, 100- and 500-year) is politically unpopular.

It should be noted that the proper interpretation of the flood hazards is as an annual percentage of probability. The 100-year flood has a 1/100 or 1% chance of occurring each year, the 500-year flood has a 1/500 or 0.2% chance each year. The longer the historical record, the better the resulting projection. Because we have only been gaging rivers in the midwest for about 100 years, the record is not as good as it could be, so it is important to update the projections often with new data. Even where the record is long, changes such as farming, levees, and urbanization make those projections lower than they probably should be. (see #s 2 & 3 above)

Properly forecasting the design flood is important because it is the basis for bridge design, levee design, zoning, insurance, and disaster planning. A too low design flood practically guarantees that lots of people will end up in harms way (many without realizing it), as we are seeing this year and have seen in the past.

I will conclude by pointing out the tendency to believe that nature can be tamed and that we shouldn’t let the river “win.” As someone who studies rivers, I find this to be irresponsible. True leadership would include recasting the design floods to reflect what we know about the river, even if it puts more people and businesses in the flood plain. True leadership would include telling people not to rebuild in harms way. It’s not a matter of overcoming nature; responsible development respects natural processes and designs to avoid hazards.

Comment by Illinois Geologist Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:04 pm
OK, perhaps I’m being cynical, but what the heck.

1:00 PM, our dear Governor is going to be at the Pike County Fairgrounds. At 2:00 PM, he’s going to be at the Sny Levee. Punching these locations into mapquest, it says that it will take 40 minutes to drive from one to the other. So, that means he has to leave the Pike County Fairgrounds at about 1:20 PM.

OK, here’s my question. Taking off time for the “photo-op”, how much time will the Guv be able to dedicate to “helping with the sandbagging?”

I mean, come on. Leave the poor people alone and let them work. If you really want to help, just show up, leave behind the cameras, and spend a couple hours. Work up a sweat.

I put the over/under at 2 sandbags he’ll help to make.

Comment by trafficmatt Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:26 pm
He should be visiting. This is his state. A visiting governor focuses the bureaucracy on the task at hand, he can help correct mistakes on the spot and his presence alone can help lift local spirits.

I don’t say this too often, but back away from the guv on this one.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:32 pm
Interesting to see Quinn acting as almost a shadow governor, or the leader of the opposition in a parliamentary system. Don’t know that I’ve seen him do that so directly before.

Quinn doesn’t get a state plane or chopper, does he? Not that he would need it — over the years, he’s probably personally driven more miles around the state than any other Illinois politician.

Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:38 pm
Yeah, Quinn can use whatever plane/chopper that he wants.

Sometimes (all the time?) the gov, and lt. gov. do not fly in the same plane.

Comment by Shelbyville Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:46 pm
Trafficmatt,

The schedule said aerial tour, which goes a bit faster than a car.

Comment by WonderBoy Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:50 pm
This is a major disaster. This is about more than the price of grain and corn. This is about potentially poluted undrinkable well water, disease, poisoning of soil (some of the best farmland in the US),loss of homes, farms, businesses, entire towns and everything many have worked for, some for many generations. There is also the issue of damaged infrastructure. I am glad the Governor is going to tour the areas affected. To the average citizen, it is disturbing that Photo Op appears in the Governors public schedule. However, those of us in public life understand that a public official cannot be everywhere that is affected by the flooding, and that planning is critical (including when to take pics). It might be good overall for moral if pics are seen of the Governor visiting some of the people. In all fairness, he cannot be everywhere. I understand that the opinion of the majority is that the Governor has not been visible or available so much of the time, hence the frustration. I agree this is not the time to promote an individual. It is also not the time to tear anyone down, including the Governor. Our state is hurting. Right now this flooding seems distant to those watching on TV from Chicago, or other areas not affected. As a person who comes from a background in economic development, I can tell you this is going to hurt all of us. Whether we realize it or not, we are in this together.

Comment by Say WHAT? Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 1:57 pm
I agree that showing up is important, but it remains to be seen if the focus of attention will truly follow.

Will the Gov. simply say: “Here I am! See, I care!”

Or will he call for action and follow that call up with money and focus?

I hope for the latter; I suspect it will be the former.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:09 pm
So far, the reports I’ve been getting from the locals about RRB are positive. I just got an email from an avowed Blagojevich hater who said…

===The Governor and his Administration have been great. ===

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:12 pm
Rich Miller wrote, “So far, the reports I’ve been getting from the locals about RRB are positive.”

Are they simply expressing that they’re happy that Blagojevich visited, or are they saying that he has substantially done other things that are great?

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:45 pm
Both.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:48 pm
One would think that after the 1993 flood, more people would have been made to live above the flood plane but allowing the farming to continue. Losing crops is a hardship for the nation but the individual families should not be going through this time after time.

Comment by Chanson Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 2:53 pm
Maybe vertical farming can help reduce the vulnerability of crops to flooding like this. (Hat tip to the Colbert Report.)

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:20 pm
Rich,

I agree that he should visit, and I agree that he can focus the efforts.

What I was commenting on is the “photo-op”, “photo-op”.

Is it more important that he actually help people or get his picture taken? I guess it struck me as grandstanding. Most of this governor’s efforts have been to make himself look good instead of helping people.

Comment by trafficmatt Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:22 pm
To Chanson - The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) has strict rules to prevent structures from being built in harm’s way. Illinois has the best enforcement of the NFIP in the nation. Less than one percent of the properties that flood repetitively were built after the NFIP rules. This is the best in the nation. Some states have percentages closer to 40%.

If someone had a preexisting structure in a flood-prone location, the vast majority of the public would be upset if that person was forced to move. If a structure is more than 50% damaged it is substantially damaged and must be demolished or elevated. FEMA and State programs have spent $100 million in the last 15 years purchasing flood-prone structures from voluntary sellers. A large number were on the Mississippi, including more than 100 in both Keithsburg and Grafton. These are homeowners that will not have to go through the heartbreak of flooding.

Comment by mitigate Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:35 pm
I’m hardly a huge fan of the Governor, but I think it’s ridiculous to slam him for not doing a full shift of sandbagging. the people of this state are not paying him to put sand in bags — we’re paying him to send the Illinois National Guard to the riverbanks to put sand in bags. And it’s a good thing if he takes time to spend a few minutes with the folks who are working, to let them know that everybody in Illinois supports their efforts. And it’s a really good thing if cameras follow him down there, so Chicago folks see what’s going on — and Chciago legislators won’t balk at sending extra dollars down to Quincy for the cleanup and rebuild.

Comment by soccermom Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:42 pm
Illinois might have good numbers, but the system can be played to allow rebuilding where it probably should not take place.

There are some locations where, after the 1993 flood, heavily damaged properties were assessed in such a way that the damage was less than 50% of the property value. I do not know how common this was, but it did happen. The thinking was, the flood was unusual, why make the people move when it won’t happen again for 100 years?

Also (I may be wrong on this), it is my understanding that properties damaged more than 50% cannot be insured under NFIP. The owner can rebuild in the same place at the same elevation, but if they do so, they are not allowed in the program.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 3:59 pm
Thanks to Illinois Geologist–I’d be happy to have you post some more over at AP or perhaps Rich could set you up at Illinoize….

Comment by archpundit Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 4:52 pm
Let me just say, Illinois is far from perfect on flooding, but compared to Missouri where they build more in the flood plains since 1993, it’s doing pretty well. As Illinois Geologist is pointing out, we have unrealistic models, but Illinois is at least conforming to the models that currently exist–not something happening in other states.

Comment by archpundit Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 4:57 pm
soccermom wrote, “I’m hardly a huge fan of the Governor, but I think it’s ridiculous to slam him for not doing a full shift of sandbagging. the people of this state are not paying him to put sand in bags — we’re paying him to send the Illinois National Guard to the riverbanks to put sand in bags.”

I agree with this; however, I don’t think that people are saying that Blagojevich shouldn’t delegate these types of operations, rather than trying to micromanage them. I think what might be bothering some people is that Blagojevich might be trying to make it look like he’s doing more on the ground work than he actually is, purely for political reasons. In other words, Blagojevich has no official duty to personally sandbag, and while it’s understandable if he doesn’t, he shouldn’t try to make it seem as if he’s doing something that he’s actually not doing.

Comment by Squideshi Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 5:56 pm
wherever one spots a camera they also spy pat quinn. quinn stood by while blago pilfered the state coffers. Now he wants to be our leader, what a schmuck!

Comment by MouthofBabes.. Wednesday, Jun 18, 08 @ 11:39 pm
===WHAT: **PHOTO OP** Gov. Blagojevich will assist in sandbagging efforts and visit volunteers.

WHEN: 1:00 p.m.

WHERE: Pike County Fairgrounds
Pleasant Hills, IL===

I realize west-central Illinois, like southeastern Illinois, is Forgottonia, and I realize that Pike County is just a blip on the map population-wise, but I would think someone on the governor’s staff could check to see that there is just one “hill” in Pleasant Hill.

As for not living in the flood plain, I still claim that if the government wishes to remove people from their homes and land that lie within a flood plain, they should also prevent any further construction in the hurricane zones of Florida.

Comment by Fan of the Game Thursday, Jun 19, 08 @ 8:43 am