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Studies show immigration has surged the economy forward since the pandemic

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Illinois

* Gallup today…

Significantly more Americans name immigration as the most important problem facing the U.S. (28%) than did a month ago (20%). Immigration has now passed the government as the most often cited problem, after the two issues tied for the top position the past two months. The government ranked first each month from January through November 2023.

In the latest poll, 20% of Americans name the government as the most important problem, followed by the economy (12%) and inflation (11%). Immigration is the only issue that has shown meaningful change in the past month.

* Congressional Budget Office…

In our projections, the deficit is also smaller than it was last year because economic output is greater, partly as a result of more people working. The labor force in 2033 is larger by 5.2 million people, mostly because of higher net immigration. As a result of those changes in the labor force, we estimate that, from 2023 to 2034, GDP will be greater by about $7 trillion and revenues will be greater by about $1 trillion than they would have been otherwise. We are continuing to assess the implications of immigration for revenues and spending.

* Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco…

Immigration policies enacted after January 2017 contributed to the decline in immigration prior to the sharp drop due to the COVID-19 border closures. Lower net international migration led to a slowdown in the foreign-born population and labor force growth. This contributed to the tightening in the U.S. labor market. Reopening of borders in 2022 and easing of immigration policies brought a sizable immigration rebound, which in turn helped alleviate the shortage of workers relative to job vacancies. The foreign-born labor force grew rapidly in 2022, closing the labor force gap created by the pandemic. This analysis suggests that, if the pickup in immigration flows continues, it could further ease overall labor market tightness, albeit by a modest amount.

* The Washington Post rounds it all up…

Immigration has propelled the U.S. job market further than just about anyone expected, helping cement the country’s economic rebound from the pandemic as the most robust in the world.

That momentum picked up aggressively over the past year. About 50 percent of the labor market’s extraordinary recent growth came from foreign-born workers between January 2023 and January 2024, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis of federal data. And even before that, by the middle of 2022, the foreign-born labor force had grown so fast that it closed the labor force gap created by the pandemic, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Immigrant workers also recovered much faster than native-born workers from the pandemic’s disruptions, and many saw some of the largest wage gains in industries eager to hire. Economists and labor experts say the surge in employment was ultimately key to solving unprecedented gaps in the economy that threatened the country’s ability to recover from prolonged shutdowns.

“Immigration has not slowed. It has just been absolutely astronomical,” said Pia Orrenius, vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. “And that’s been instrumental. You can’t grow like this with just the native workforce. It’s not possible.” […]

In normal economic times, some analysts note, new immigrants can drag down wages, especially if employers decide to hire them over native-born workers. Undocumented workers, who don’t have as much leverage to push for higher pay, could lower average wages even more.

But the past few years were extremely abnormal because companies were desperate to hire. Plus, it would be exceedingly difficult for immigration to affect the wages of enormous swaths of the labor force, said Alex Nowrasteh, vice president for economic and social policy studies at the libertarian Cato Institute.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:10 pm

Comments

What? Immigrants have helped surged the economy? How can they be doing that when they’re so busy poisoning the blood of our country? The blood that apparently does not include any blood from immigrant ancestors.

Comment by West Side the Best Side Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:28 pm
Thank you so so much for posting this. Man I wish I could go back in time to last years holiday season. I’d print this off and absolutely maul some anti immigration relatives with it.

Comment by Honeybear Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:31 pm
Not surprising at all. During the Spanish flu it was immigrants that saved NYC and this country from economic failure. People who flee and come here are set on making the most of the opportunity.

But failure to address the issue is on both parties. The Rs push fear but Ds have had a majority multiple times in the past 15 years and failed to pass any sort of comprehensive reform.

Comment by History will absolve Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:35 pm
How will the Doom Grifters explain this?

Comment by Matty Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:36 pm
Basic economics necessitates population growth in order for economies to grow.
This American Life did and excellent two part series about immigration. Worth a listen if you have time.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/632/our-town-part-one

Comment by Route 50 Commentator Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:39 pm
“You can’t grow like this with just the native workforce. It’s not possible”

Another reason to be glad Illinois welcomes immigrants. Anti-immigration laws hurt local economies because the native population won’t pick the produce in the fields or do other so-called “menial” work. The nativist economic model is a joke that should be avoided by all, but is pushed by Republicans e.g. in Florida.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:47 pm
== but Ds have had a majority multiple times in the past 15 years and failed to pass any sort of comprehensive reform. ==

technical majorities, yes, but not the supermajorities needed to overcome R opposition in the Senate.

Also, here’s an interesting take on how failing to fix border issues is both selective and key to the doom grift…

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/asylum-seekers-migrant-crisis/677464/

Comment by sim1 Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:51 pm
Illinois MAGA Republicans simultaneously are complaining that the state is losing population and that there is a sudden influx of population…I wonder what about these new Illinois residents they don’t like…

Comment by NIU Grad Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:54 pm
Immigration has always fueled economic growth in the U.S., and economic growth has always fueled demand for immigrant workers.

Watching the Cinemax series Warrior right now, which centers on the clash between Irish and Chinese labor in San Francisco in the 1870’s.

Comment by Thomas Paine Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:55 pm
100% agree. One caveat with the Washington Post piece. The reason immigrants “Recovered much faster”. The honest truth is they never stopped working. It’s embarrassing how most policy experts haven’t bothered to educate themselves on immigration policy history or the immigrant community. That should tell all of us how deeply broken the entire system truly is. Immigration status should intersectional with race and gender in any policy.

Also we are probably seeing the residuals of taxes paid by documented and undocumented (yes they pay Fed & State taxes) immigrants from their work during the pandemic & opening up afterwards. Imagine how much MORE our local & national economies would grow if we did have a proper immigration system in place. We need to start focusing on the economics of immigration. The unfortunate truth is many don’t care about immigration until money is on the table. Mexicanos specifically created an underground economy by starting their own businesses due to lack of job permits. La Villita was (I believe still is) the second most revenue generating district in Chicago. Immigrants did so incredibly well for themselves, the IRS started TAXING them. This is nothing new, but it is past time to give hard working immigrants, but (especially Mexicanos) citizenship. They’ve been working DECADES for it.

Comment by Leslie D. Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 12:56 pm
Every day 10,000 baby boomers reach 65.

Comment by 17% solution Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 1:07 pm
Since November of 2021, the US has printed an extra $13 trillion dollars. I don’t blame any immigrant for wanting a piece of that pie.

Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 1:09 pm
==the US has printed an extra $13 trillion dollars. I don’t blame any immigrant for wanting a piece of that pie==

What are you even talking about? This is talking about their participation in the workforce. That has nothing to do with the government printing money.

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 1:37 pm
The country has been at war since October of 2001 with no tax increase to pay for the war effort.

Welcome to our new Illinois citizens (eventually). We’re glad you’re here.

Comment by Jerry Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 1:39 pm
I’m happy for all immigrants and their Pursuit of the American Dream. I just wish we could help all those working in the egg/poultry business Get better working conditions and pay.

Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 1:46 pm
Immigrants…they literally get the job done.

Comment by Anon E Moose Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 1:55 pm
We need to agree on what number of immigrants to allow and create a process to regulate to that number because eventually we will return to “normal economic times”

Comment by Two left feet Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 2:06 pm
=it could further ease overall labor market tightness, albeit by a modest amount.=

You would think the gop would support immigration because it actually brings the cost of labor down by adding labor supply.

But they are all about culture wars and not governance.

But I am shocked, just shocked, I tell you to learn that an influx of people looking for a better life and looking for jobs that add to the tax base which lowers the tax burden on the rest of us…are helping our economy. Just shocked.

I am also disgusted by the Johnson admin and the reaction by some Chicago residents. And rural communities should be clamoring for these folks.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 2:33 pm
The immigration argument isn’t an argument, they are providing work in job sectors that many people won’t do for various reasons.

When companies, be it restaurants, manufacturing, retail, farming, grocery etc, were looking for workers after the pandemic, even with wages at $14-$18/hr to start, for some reason people weren’t applying or taking those jobs.

There is still a shortage within the workforce, especially manual labor. Immigrating to this country with no real education, you will still get a job and nowadays with a decent wage which will allow you to uplift the next generation of your family. It’s the American story.

Comment by Frida's boss Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 2:35 pm
Yeah, you’d have to be a real dunce to think that extremely motivated people moving across borders, or even across oceans, for better opportunities and a chance to thrive would be anything but a major economic boost.

Comment by TJ Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 2:39 pm
==create a process to regulate to that number==

What number would you suggest?

Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 2:40 pm
- I’d print this off and absolutely maul some anti immigration relatives with it. -

They would (probably) just say it was fake news you saw on the Internets…they are living in a post factual time purposely created by their grifting shoe salesman.

Comment by Dotnonymous x Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 2:55 pm
what I cant figure out, with all the technology at our disposal, why and the heck can’t we legalize these people in minutes. when Mrs Blue fled Cambodia, she was met by what is now INS at the airport she was processed immediately. some 5 yrs late she was nationalized. Never once, it seemed, was she u accounted for. and it was all a paper trail.

Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 3:12 pm
=What number would you suggest?=

The amount necessary to grow the US population by 12% less the amount of growth in the native-born population. The percentage can be debated. Make it a formula instead of a specific number. Other variables can be added like increase the number if labor force participation is low or decrease the number if wages drop. If one doesn’t want immigration, then have more children. If one doesn’t want immigration, then do the work. Tie the variables that the country needs to grow into the formula.

Comment by Two left feet Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 3:24 pm
Blue Dog, my off the cuff response is maybe it has to do with starving the federal workforce. That’s the first place I’d look.

Comment by Original Rambler Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 4:03 pm
Unfortunately some of the anti-immigration seems to be ethically related. In Quincy, some people are seeing people of Latin/Mexican descent and claim that the Governor is busing the migrants to Quincy. Some of the people, the Latino/Mexican descents that the “whites” are claiming are migrants are actually American citizens. Unfortunately there is a racism basis here.

Comment by Appears Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 4:23 pm
…they are living in a post factual time purposely created by their grifting shoe salesman.

If I were a shoe salesman I would be insulted.

Comment by don the legend Tuesday, Feb 27, 24 @ 6:04 pm