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CGFA’s revised revenue forecasts are slightly higher than the governor’s budget office projects

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Illinois

* The Commission on Government Forecasting & Accountability has released its revised revenue projections. Here’s the bottom line for this fiscal year…

• In February 2024, the Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) released their revised outlook for FY 2024 General Funds in the FY 2024 Budget Book, with a FY 2024 total of $52.216 billion. This figure is $1.605 billion above the FY 2024 Enacted Budget’s assumed revenue figure of $50.611 billion and $199 million above their November 2023 estimate of $52.017 billion.

• The Commission’s March 2024 estimate of $52.590 billion is $374 million above GOMB’s February 2024 revised forecast for FY 2024.

* FY25…

• In the FY 2025 Budget Book, GOMB projects a FY 2025 General Funds revenue total of $52.993 billion. The Commission’s FY 2025 estimate of $52.077 billion is $916 million lower than this figure.

• However, it should be stressed the Commission’s revenue estimate is based on current law. The FY 2025 revenue projection from GOMB includes a number of revenue adjustments in its calculation that would require changes to State law. The net value of these revenue adjustments is approximately $1.098 billion.

If you remove the proposed changes to state law (essentially the tax hikes), CGFA’s estimate is actually $182 million higher than the governor’s budget office. From CGFA’s Executive Director Clayton Klenke: “That is a small difference given the $52 billion base and can mostly be explained by the fact that we had access to the February receipts which showed a pretty solid month and also a $100 million transfer in related to the Income Tax rebates that was transferred back to GRF in January.”

Lots more here.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Mar 12, 24 @ 12:03 pm

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