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Sandoval plays footsie with McCain

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Illinois
Obama

* My syndicated newspaper column for this week…

Sen. Martin Sandoval (D-Chicago) was one of just a tiny handful of Illinois Democratic state legislators who backed Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid instead of local favorite Barack Obama.

Sandoval’s district and most of the Chicago area’s Latino precincts went for Clinton in the February primary, so it probably was a smart move. Plus, Sandoval has been engaged in a full-blown Statehouse war with Senate President Emil Jones for well more than a year, so backing Clinton against Jones’ political Godson had its “stick in the eye” advantages.

Unsurprisingly, Clinton’s defeat hasn’t automatically put Sandoval in the Obama camp.

Sandoval met privately with Republican presidential candidate John McCain last week, and he told The Associated Press the next day he was leaving open the possibility of endorsing the man.

Sandoval told me last week the meeting went well and said McCain promised to be an advocate for Latino issues. McCain, Sandoval said, did not ask him for an endorsement, but did ask that they continue to meet, which Sandoval agreed to do.

McCain also apparently was aware Sandoval was on the outs with many of his Senate Democratic colleagues because of the fight with Jones, and McCain used that division to his advantage during the meeting.

Immigration reform has been a political problem for McCain. His push last year for a bipartisan solution to the situation earned him heaps of scorn from the right wing of his party and just about killed off his candidacy. He started to gain ground about the time he flipped a bit on the issue.

McCain reminded Sandoval that the last president to do anything major about immigration reform was a Republican, Ronald Reagan. Sandoval claimed McCain told him that the immigration issue would be “one of the hallmarks of my presidency.” Reagan’s immigration policy included an amnesty program for those here illegally, but McCain never uttered the “A” word.

“I’m a Democrat, but I’m not wedded to any political party,” Sandoval told me. “You need to reach out to us, meet with us, make us part of the strategy. If that’s not there, then I’m not with them,” he said of Obama’s campaign.

Sandoval dismissed a recent poll of 800 Latino voters in 21 states that showed Obama with a huge 60-23 lead over McCain, claiming the numbers would be a lot closer once Latino voters were in the privacy of the voting booth.

Sandoval also dismissed Obama’s recent hiring of Chicago Latina leader Patti Solis Doyle, who was forced out of the Clinton campaign after several missteps.

If hiring Doyle, the sister of a Chicago alderman, is Obama’s “gesture to the community,” Sandoval said, that won’t be nearly enough. Obama, he said, “needs to reach out to Latino community leaders, people like myself, and have a dialogue.”

Doyle’s brother, 25th Ward Alderman Danny Solis, teamed up with Ald. Manny Flores a couple of years ago to back a primary candidate against Sandoval, which probably explains Sandoval’s harsh attitude toward Doyle (Clinton’s personal touch likely overcame this problem for Sandoval). Sandoval has been a longtime supporter of the now largely invisible but still existent Hispanic Democratic Organization, and Solis has been at war with the HDO for the past few years.

There’s little doubt McCain would love to have a Democratic legislator from Obama’s home state on his campaign team. The propaganda advantages would be enormous, regardless of the reasons for Sandoval’s defection.

Right now though, Sandoval still is hesitant to make the big move, while blatantly telegraphing his message to Obama that his needs ought to be considered.

Sandoval’s flirtation with McCain while his hand is stretched outward (palms up) toward Obama isn’t a particularly new thing in politics. It’s as old as politics.

But it’s a marvelous confluence of opportunities for Sandoval. He can help himself either way he chooses. He can be the shining star of McCain’s Latino outreach effort or secure some influence within the Obama campaign, while sticking it to his nemesis Jones yet again no matter what he does.

Cynical? Yep. Opportunistic? Oh, yeah. But that’s hardball politics, my friends.

Come to think of it, there is one downside. The Obama campaign could dirty Sandoval up in an effort to make him too radioactive for McCain. That would be the “Chicago Way.”

We’ll see how it goes.

* Related…

* A McCain flip-flop on immigration?

* Analysis: McCain hampered by campaign missteps: The following day, he met with a group of Hispanics in Chicago. Aides who had kept word of the event secret were placed on the defensive within hours after one participant criticized some of McCain’s comments.

* McCain meets with Hispanic leaders

* The piece that started it all: Juan McCain and Illinois Hispanics

* Nader says he’ll get on Illinois presidential ballot

* Vice Is Nice

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 8:38 am

Comments

Even if Sandoval were an important player in this election, which he’s not, McCain gets zero mileage out of this potential endorsement. I am actually scratching my head trying to figure out how this topic even warrants being called news.

Comment by Dasani Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 8:51 am
Let’s see, the AP has covered the meeting twice, the Tribune has covered it, and I’ve covered it.

If you can’t understand the symbolic nature of enticing a state Senator in Obama’s home state to jump ship for McCain, then I’m not sure why you bother reading political blogs.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:03 am
the 50 dollar question to me is what effect would it have on Sandoval’s supporters if he did go the McCain route. Would they still elect him. it would definetly be an embarassment for Obama, but outside of a few political junkies and pundits I do not think the indepdent voters being fought for will care.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:04 am
Sounds like Sandoval is considering pulling a “Kirk Dillard”

Comment by Slightly Right Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:28 am
I don’t think any Cook County politician can deliver votes for a Presidential candidate - people make up their own minds on high level offices like President and Governor. Symblism would be the only benefit for McCain.

The early polls suggest Obama is going to do very well among Latino voters - possibly as high as 2-1 for Obama - at least that’s what I heard one progressive strategist predict last night.

Comment by Captain America Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:41 am
You want proof that Obama voters aren’t mainstream? Their inability to understand what Mr. Sandoval represents to Hispanic Americans voters clearly demonstrates it.

Mr. Sandoval’s supporters have three or more children, attend church, get an hourly wage, drive American cars and SUVs and perhaps have a high school education or GED. English is their second language.

So if you haven’t hear of Mr. Sandoval or thought about the men and women who keep your Starbucks, your Whole Foods, your business campus functioning, or clean up the streets after your demonstrations for Tibet and Darfur, you’re nose is aimed too high to appreciate Mr. Sandoval.

Mr. McCain obviously does.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:43 am
+++Sounds like Sandoval is considering pulling a “Kirk Dillard”+++

I think there is a big difference between what Dillard did and what Sandoval is doing. Dillard has never flirted with endorsing Obama, as far as I know. Sandoval’s current tryst with McCain is much more calculated.

I get so frustrated with actions like Sandoval’s. Sandoval knows that McCain is going to be bad on many issues he cares about, including human services. This kind of opportunistic move is what makes people so cynical about politics.

Comment by montrose Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:44 am
I’m not sure what the potential benefit for Sandoval is. Let’s say he backs McCain. Assuming McCain isn’t elected Prez, a good assumption, what can McCain do for Sandoval? Even if the McCainiac is elected I don’t see much upside for Sandoval. Perhaps a federal appointment as Secretary of Oversized Pants.

Now if Obama loses the election at the very least he is a US Senator and possible future governor. Is Sandoval nutz or is his ego as large as his pants size?

This will also annoy “da mare” and it seems to me that Daley really really really wants Obama in the White House. Does Sandoval really want to take on Daley in the next election? HDO is basically on life support and its glory days are over.

There will also be a redistricting coming up after the next census. Does Sandoval want to find his house placed into a neighboring district by a few hundred feet?

I really don’t see the logic to this, but then again sometimes ego is a larger driving force than cold hearted logic. Sandoval should take a page from Mike Madigan and start smiling through gritted teeth and praising the Obamanator.

Comment by Irishpirate Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:44 am
For McCain and Obama, this is more about New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado than it is Illinois. I’m sure McCain would like to trot out Sandoval as a surrogate in those states.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:47 am
===I’m sure McCain would like to trot out Sandoval as a surrogate in those states.===

Exactly.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:51 am
Just because it’s in the paper, and on a blog, doesn’t make it significant news. This state is not in play, so Sandy jumping on with McCain really means nothing, not matter if people want to make it news, or make something more of it than it is. That’s just the reality of the situation.

I can see an independent voter now being swayed by McCain picking up the endorsement of an unknown state senator from Illinois….YEA RIGHT!!

Comment by Dasani Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:00 am
Sounds like something that a backbencher would do.
Is Sandoval considering a run for gov?

This is a great way to get his name in the papers, but ultimately, who cares? Unless he’s joined by 10 others, it just doesn’t matter. “State Senator Who Nobody Ever Heard Throws Fit, Backs McCain.” Big deal.

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:02 am
So Sandoval is going to be an effective surrogate for McCain. An unknown state senator?

I didn’t realize he was the Angelina Jolie of Hispanic National Politics and everyone wants him.

Again maybe I am missing something. Maybe the upside for McCain in being associated with a Hispanic Illinois State Senator is greater than the downside. Now my very basic google search shows Sandoval pushed for making illegal residents eligible for government college assistance and ran for and won a seat on an official Mexican Government advisory council.

Is this going to help McCain get votes? Perhaps from Hispanics, but the downside from the right wing Republican base might offset that.

What do I know though? I’m just an unfrozen caveman commenter.

Comment by Irishpirate Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:03 am
Dasani and IrishPirate, you’re missing two things…

1) The obvious propaganda boost (as with Dillard’s TV ad for Obama)

2) The underlying story about Sandoval’s play

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:03 am
Perhaps Sandoval should just join the Republicans and get it over with.

Comment by Levois Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:26 am
Heh, seriously not to get stuck on partisan politics but this story is interesting and the comments are profound. Perhaps the benefits might be more for McCain and it might be for Sandoval. Sandoval could suffer for this “betrayal” of sorts as well.

Comment by Levois Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:28 am
There are lots of things I am missing. This is not one of them. Perhaps I am ignoring it. Perhaps I am flat out wrong. It has been known to happen.

I really think this is too “inside baseball” to have much of an effect. I could be wrong, but John McCain standing next to an Illinois State Senator with Sandoval’s record and positions seems to be problematic at best.

Don’t underestimate the visceral hatred among a good portion of the Republican base for anything that even touches the notion of treating illegal immigrants with decency and sanity. One could argue that those folks have no where to go but McCain, but they could also stay home.

I really don’t see this as being a big story. Anymore than Dillard dallying with Obama was much of a real story.

What I would be interested in knowing is what Sandoval expects to get out of it. If he backs McCain he better pray that McCain wins because if he doesn’t a good portion of the local democratic establishment and wannabee hispanic establishment is going to feast on his electoral remains. Even if McCain does win they may go after Sandoval just for grits and shins.

Just a difference of opinion. I guess we can sit back and see what happens. I know very little about Sandoval so I will be a semi interested observer. I do like the Obamasaurus Rex though, so perhaps I am just feigning disinterest.

Perhaps Sandoval is the Hispanic version of Blago and the level he plays on and the tactics and logic he possesses are just beyond mere mortals such as myself.

Comment by Irishpirate Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:28 am
Which leads to the ultimate question: do the swing voters and indepedents care enough about Sandoval’s possible switch to effect votes (or the outcome of Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada).

As for Sandoval, its the smart move. Unless it would cause him to lose his base (which i have no idea) he is seeing who can deliver tohim the best offer. He is using the political situation to his, and possibly his consituents advantage. I may not agree with it, but I have to say it is both news worthy and a fair startegy.

Comment by Ghost Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:29 am
Rich, I really think you are being overly generous in the amount of impact a Sandoval endorsement would have for McCain. It would be meaningful if Dick Durbin came out for McCain, but meaningless for a little known, ethically challenged state senator. Sandoval will have no influence on voters in Illinois or outside of Illinois.

Comment by Just Observing Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:41 am
JO, whatever impact it has, it’s still an effective propaganda tool.

Illinois Statehouse is my beat, so when something like this happens on my beat (like the Dillard story) I work it. Not sure if you can understand that point or not.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:43 am
Also, McCain spent 15-20 minutes with Sandoval in a private meeting and during that confab McCain asked for more meetings. Apparently, McCain thinks Sandoval could be used to his advantage, or why bother meeting with him?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:44 am
It’s a brick-by-brick building process. McCain wants to attract Hispanics and disgruntled HIllary supporters. Here’s a guy who’s both; and he’s from Chicago for a little propaganda zinger. He’s a brick to add to the pile.

Sandoval on his own, of course, probably only delivers his own vote. Twenty Democratic Hispanic lawmakers for McCain from around the country gets interesting.

Every candidate in presidential elections puts together these groups of “surprise” supporters. The first I remember is Democrats for Nixon in ‘72. I’m sure we’ll see ObamaCons. They’re meant to convey to voters of a particular group that they have a choice; there are people like you on the other side.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:53 am
===The first I remember is Democrats for Nixon in ‘72. ===

Actually, there was a Democrats for Nixon group in 1960. Ronald Reagan played a major role in that group.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 10:54 am
Bear in mind that Ssndoval represents Berwyn and Cicero, two localities that have had a reputation of voting for Republicans in the not so distant past. More recently, the bipartisan combine element has seen the politicians splitting tickets. While the area is trending Democratic, there have been instances of the parties collaborating on support for certain candidates (witness former GOP State Representative Bill O’Connor being supported by Democratic precinct workers or Judy Baar Topinka playing all sides against the middle).

Comment by Honest Abe Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:05 am
HA, that’s the distant past. In pretty much every partisan election in the past two cycles, the Democrats have dominated both Berwyn and Cicero.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:08 am
Rich,
Couldn’t the election wins in the last two cycles be partly attributed to Sandoval and other Dem leaders working their butts off to ensure Dem wins? Groups like HDO and politicians like Sandoval?

Comment by My Opinion Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:11 am
No. Mostly demographic changes. The locals in Cicero have converted the Republican precinct captains into just Cicero captains. Their palm cards have two sides. Seriously.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:16 am
Oh wow. This is going to be interesting. And it is news worthy. . .especially on the state level.

Comment by My Opinion Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:17 am
If Dan Johnson Weinberger were dead, he’d be spinning in his grave right about now….

Comment by phocion Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:19 am
It really doesn’t matter what deals are made up north, Obama will win Illinois. I don’t know if anything will take the state out of the Obama column. I mean who really thinks that McCain has a chance of winning Illinois?

Comment by Deep South Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:20 am
DS, this isn’t about McCain winning Illinois. Don’t be silly. This is about national propaganda.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:22 am
phocion, that was too funny.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:23 am
Rich… I wasn’t questioning the point of reporting the story — go for it.

I was just questioning the impact Sandoval has on McCain.

Comment by Just Observing Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:28 am
It’s quite possible that Sandoval is comfortable making this play because of ambiguity toward Obama in his district.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:37 am
Background on Sandoval. He apparently was appointed to the Metropolitan Sanitary District Board by George Ryan. Where is George now?

While this story is interesting trying to figure out the angles I just don’t see much national impact. As an Obama supporter it would be nice to see McCain getting some support from people like Sandoval who will drive the anti immigrant nutjobs up the wall. Bob Barr for El Presidente!

Comment by Irishpirate Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:39 am
This reminds of the story of the bored relief pitcher who gets up and makes a few throws in the bullpen, just to get the announcer to say “Smith is warming up. Let’s see if they are going to make a change.”

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 11:51 am
I understand what Rich and others are saying about Sandoval’s use as a propaganda tool and a surrogate. But here’s the thing — a google news search turns up very few instances in which the story was actually picked up. And the Baltimore Sun headline was “A McCain Flip-Flop on immigration?” More of a foul off of a big toe than a home run.

Worse for McCain, the blog headlines all seem to skew the B’More Sun’s way, and some minuteman type got herself into the meeting, so there’s that.

Not to say this will not ultimately be a net plus for McCain, but this is potentially a slippery slope for him, because, in spite of McCain’s moderate immigration stance, the Republican brand with Latino voters is not great, and on the other side, he may have a problem with hard liners because of meetings like this (and Bob Barr isn’t going to help).

Comment by JonShibleyFan Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 1:19 pm
As far as Sandoval is concerned he has faced serious challenge in the past couple of elections from a progressive candidate, therefore now he is grasping for a more conservative base. He must feel that a McCain alliance will help him appeal to that base.
The way I see is McCain feels that having a Latino senator from Obama’s home state could create some of the drama and buzz that gets candidates elected, the potential is worth 15 minutes of his time.

Comment by southsider Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 2:13 pm
Does anyone, anywhere, have genuine, reasonably objective statistics as to whether 1) states that have cracked down on illegal immigration are now saving vast amounts of money on law enforcement, schools, Medicaid, etc., or 2) just how many illegal/undocumented immigrants there REALLY are in the U.S. — of course an exact number is hard to come up with but the 50 million claimed by one Illinois Review commenter seems wildly exaggerated, to say the least.
If the author of the original article is indeed “some minuteman type” employed by a hard-line anti-immigrant group, that explains her reaction to what I felt were reasonable questions to raise regarding the potential costs of a full-scale crackdown on all illegal aliens.
Yes, illegal immigration is a serious problem that’s gone ignored for too long, and it’s unfair to legal immigrants who play by the rules and make considerable sacrifices to do so. It demands a serious solution — but sorry, I just don’t buy the idea that it’s the #1 reason why Cook County has high taxes, or that deporting every illegal alien will magically lower property taxes, crime and unemployment overnight.

Comment by Bookworm Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 6:29 pm
After watching the posting about McCain’s courting of Mr. Sandoval, it appears that our fellow blogger do not know or understand who he is and why he is important.

This speaks volumns of the divide between Hispanic
Americans and the general politicos.

“Just another Chicago politician.”
“Just a state senator”
“Obama should win Illinois easily”

These people do not get it!

I’m glad McCain does.

Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 8:37 pm
This all just shows how silly the McCain team is in Illinois. Of course there really is no McCain campaign here. It’s just a cash mining operation.

Sandoval isn’t going to endorse McCain. Grow up. I’m sure he liked being stroked for a day, but he’s not a guy to go against his own party and the candidate who will probably win IL by 20+ points.

The problem is the old faces who glommed on to McCain in IL put more emphasis on stroking a hard core Dem like Sandoval than on the GOP base. When McCain came to town last week you either had to be wealthy to see him, or your ancestors had to have come from a particular part of the southern hemisphere.

McCain pulled a lot of dough out of IL last week, and that’s great for him. But he also just made his IL losing margin wider.

It’s all a bunch of goofiness. Until the IL GOP gets its act together there will be no presidential politics to cover in Illinois.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Jun 23, 08 @ 9:32 pm