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Question of the day

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Illinois

* What primary result(s) surprised you the most? Explain.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:25 am

Comments

I actually thought Mary Flowers would still win. Especially because of the low voter turn out expected. Or at least have it be a closer margin.

Comment by just because Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:30 am
Pleasantly surprised that BCH lost. Fingers crossed that O’Neill Burke holds on when the votes are all counted.

Comment by 47th Ward Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:32 am
I figured Judge Reyes would perform better, but he really got thumped bad. The other Cook County results do not surprise me at all.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:32 am
I thought Bost would take 60-65%. Without the Trump endorsement, he probably would have lost.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:33 am
The race for Cook County State’s Attorney. I thought Burke was going to lose.

Comment by Gravitas Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:34 am
That so much $$$$$$ was spent in two Democratic primaries for seats that are Democrat in the fall. If the party could take that and invest in building a better downstate Dem effort it would be smart.

Comment by This Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:35 am
I thought the Cook County BOR race would be competitive. Kaegi spending 750k of gus own money to try to completely control the assessment process may have backfired on him.

Comment by Sox Fan Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:37 am
BCH Was a resounding loss. who knew that Chicagoans would hate on their mayor and the teachers union so much. would love to know how many mail in/drop off ballots voted for the referendum vs. in person. read that some did not notice the referendum.

Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 11:47 am
BCH by a landslide. I’ll be curious to see how the DSAers respond.

Comment by DS Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:01 pm
=and the teachers union so much.=

I think CTU has overplayed their hand and are starting to pay the price. If something doesn’t change very soon, they will be in a pickle. They will have to spend big resources to support a mayor that may not fair very well in his reelection bid.

Comment by JS Mill Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:01 pm
Thought flowers would be closer. Really shows how even after 38 years your voters can still turn on you for the right amount of money

Comment by Happy Go Lucky Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:06 pm
Flowers losing so big and Danny Davis winning by so much.

Comment by levivotedforjudy Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:06 pm
Surprised Flowers didn’t pull it out in the end and win by a razor thin margin.

Comment by Give Me A Break Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:07 pm
Spyropoulos winning handedly was somewhat surprising, but all in all pretty chalk for what I expected unless I’m missing something relatively minor.

Comment by TJ Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:09 pm
=== Kaegi spending 750k of gus own money to try to completely control the assessment process may have backfired on him. ===

You think? Good luck getting that party endorsement in 2 years Fritz. Especially after all of these areas see their massive tax increases this fall.

Comment by Hannibal Lecter Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:17 pm
Thought Flowers might win in a low turnout election.

Comment by walker Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:19 pm
What 47th said.

Comment by PublicServant Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:35 pm
Given how well the progressive tax referendum did in Chicago, the fact the transfer tax went down was by far the biggest surprise. The opposition successfully framed it as a referendum on Brandon Johnson. If his poor polling numbers persist, the next proxy battle will be the Chicago Elected School Board races in the fall. Depending on the district, there will be candidates running against “mayoral control.”

Comment by Roman Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:36 pm
- BCH by a landslide -

Why is everyone so surprised by this? I actually support the concept but it’s pretty confusing to the average voter and the campaign seemed poorly organized at least to me.

Comment by Excitable Boy Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:40 pm
Also, kind of wondering about the politics around the timing of BCH, any reason that it was put on the ballot for the primary instead of the general?

Comment by May soon be required Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 12:52 pm
==Really shows how even after 38 years your voters can still turn on you for the right amount of money ==

The money helped for sure, but Flowers’ bad behavior in Springfield is ultimately what caused her to lose the seat. Voters are more aware than many people think and Primary voters tend to be more informed about office-holders and challengers. I’ve seen campaigns dump a ton of money on negative ads and lose because the voters know the person and the negative ads don’t reflect the person they know.

I would be interested to know more about Flowers’ ground game (if she had one). The margin of her loss is a good indicator that it was more than just the negative ads.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 1:23 pm
Speaker Welch is following in the footsteps of his predecessor…if he wants your seat, you’re toast.

Harmon not so much.

Comment by Loop Lady Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 1:36 pm
I thought BCH would win with at least 55% of the vote. What surprised me was how many ordinary citizens didn’t believe it wouldn’t affect them if it passed. A lot of fear out there about rising rents. Some Chicago voters believed asylum seekers would be first in line for the new housing.

Comment by Steve Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 1:37 pm
The margin by which Flowers lost. I was pretty confident she would lose, just not by that much.

Comment by Leslie K Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 1:50 pm
===Harmon not so much. ===

Harmon didn’t choose Toro.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 2:03 pm
I might be most surprised by how anticlimactic it all felt today.

Comment by Suburban Mom Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 2:05 pm
==Kaegi spending 750k of gus own money to try to completely control the assessment process may have backfired on him.==

You misspelled $5m.

Comment by de Gaulle Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 2:28 pm
The fact that Bost only got around 52% with Trump’s support suggests nearly half of Republicans think Bost isn’t far enough right.

Comment by anon2 Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 2:36 pm
I think BCH fared worse than the progressive tax amendment in large part because voters didn’t trust the Mayor coming out asking for more revenue without a specific plan on how he wanted to spend it. Johnson’s administration is not getting the benefit of the doubt on this.

Comment by Homebody Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 2:50 pm
Not surprised at the Flowers defeat so much as the margin. My friends in the LGBTQ community are thrilled that she’ll be gone.

Comment by Proud Papa Bear Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 2:58 pm
Was also surprised at the margin in State Rep.Flowers race. Probably should not have been surprised based on the obscene amount of money that was spent for the Springfield gang candidate.
Congratulations to Mary Flowers on a lifetime of public service.

Comment by Back to the Future Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 3:06 pm
===Voters are more aware than many people think and Primary voters tend to be more informed about office-holders and challengers. I’ve seen campaigns dump a ton of money on negative ads and lose because the voters know the person and the negative ads don’t reflect the person they know.===
I was on the ground on the Chicago side of the 31st district for weeks until today. I did not encounter one person who had concerns about Flowers’ behavior.
For the record: everyone I spoke with that was already familiar with Representative Mary Flowers was remarkably fond of her. The 75+ crowd especially.

To answer the original question: how quickly the AP called the Flowers-Crawford race

Comment by feminist buzzkill Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 3:29 pm
Darren doesn’t seem to be more conservative than Bost, just weirder.

Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 4:42 pm
Sure, Kaegi spent a bunch of money but it’s surprising Rogers spent even more.

From the Tribune:

“The win for Rogers, who is a personal injury attorney at the firm Power Rogers, was also a defeat for Cook County Assessor Fritz Kaegi, who poured $680,000 into a campaign fund focused on defeating Rogers. But Rogers fought fire with fire, loaning his campaign fund $850,000 since the start of the year, according to state campaign records.”

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2024/03/20/larry-rogers-jr-fights-big-money-from-assessor-fritz-kaegi-holds-on-to-spot-on-property-appeals-board/

Comment by Bored of Review Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 4:56 pm
=== Sure, Kaegi spent a bunch of money but it’s surprising Rogers spent even more. ===

What is your point? Rogers was a candidate in the race - it makes sense that he would do what he needed to do in order to win.

Kaegi on the other hand made an incredibly bad political move here by dumping this money into his opponent. He undoubtedly will have a target on his back in two years now. He should expect the same kind of treatment from the party that Iris got this year. Spending 700k in a losing effort and alienating allies that went to bat for you two years ago is incredibly bad politics.

Comment by Hannibal Lecter Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 5:14 pm
Flowers margin of defeat surprised me the most, but then her district knew her well and she appears to have worn them out as much as the leadership in Springfield. Not surprised at all with the Cook County SA race, Clayton Harris did not seem to campaign until it was too late.

Comment by Annon3 Wednesday, Mar 20, 24 @ 5:20 pm
The BCH loss, which I think was due to it becoming a referendum on Johnson as much as on a tax-the-rich homelessness program. But predictions of CTU’s demise are way overstated: they’re going to easily win a majority of the elected school board districts voting in the first election. Combined with MBJ’s picks, they’ll effectively be writing their own contract.

Comment by lake county democrat Thursday, Mar 21, 24 @ 8:11 am