Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Question of the Day

Posted in:

Illinois

[Posted by Kevin Fanning]

GOP grrr: Sneed hears there’s trouble brewing in the Republican caucus.

• • The great chagrin: Word is caucus member/state Sen. Christine Radogno (R-Lemont), who lost her bid for state treasurer to Alexi Giannoulias, is making moves to run for governor.

• • Headache heaven: State Sen. Bill Brady (R-Bloomington) has already announced he’s running. It ought to make for interesting gruff sessions in the fishbowl caucus of 22 members.

* The Question: We’ve had some fun here at the blog speculating on a Gubernatorial run by Bill Daley. What do you think the chances are that Sen. Radogno runs? What do you think the chances are of her winning the primary?

posted by Kevin Fanning
Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 11:49 am

Comments

None

Comment by get real Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 11:51 am
50/50 She runs. Depending on whatother GOP opponents get into the race I think she has a good chance of winning. Radogno is a moderate woman from the burbs who can appeal and attract to “I” and thoughtful dems. She has no corruption background…no ties to Ryan…and the party needs new faces out there. I hope she runs.

Comment by scoot Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 11:54 am
Radogno is a Topinka clone. If JBT couldn’t win, she won’t.

Comment by NetschDem Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:02 pm
Gonna get crowded in that neighborhood. With any Republican with even a little bit of gumption, Chris may find herself one of way too many wannabees. But for a Republican, she really is the anti-Judy and could make being a female candidate very attractive.

Comment by The Republicrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:03 pm
I’d say 60% Radogno will run. I think she beats Birkett but loses to Brady if you have those 3 in the primary race. Brady pulls the donwstate vote and those in chicago that are disenfranchised with local politics. Radogno and Birkett split the Chicago vote with Radongo getting the majority upstate, but unable to overcome the donwstate totals for Brady.

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:05 pm
I think Radogno’s primary target is party leaders and funders, and if she can convince them that Brady CAN’T win the general election because he’s too far to the right (an EASY case to make) and she’s the best alternative (not so EASY), she has a great shot.

However, let’s not forget that there are lots of other moderates who will be pondering their next moves as well, just to name a few:

Ron Gidwitz
Mark Kirk
Tom Cross
Kirk Dillard
Bob Schillerstrom

The only one who would be an immediate frontrunner is Mark Kirk, because of his fundraising abilities, his larger political base, and like John McCain, the media loves kissing his behind.

Case in point: yesterday’s Tribune article on the new loophole in child safety testing for toys? Why no mention of Mark Kirk’s vote? Because it might make him look bad.

But Kirk’s either going to be looking for a new job because of Dan Seals or because being in the minority in Washington, D.C. with a Democratic president is a crappy job, he’ll find.

And there can only be one moderate in the race to have a shot at winning.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:06 pm
As a former high level staffer with 3 former Republican Governors in Illinois. The problem with our party today , is that people like Radogno is our face. we have not bottomed out yet, until that happens. All R’s will be singing the blues.

Comment by Real Reublican Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:09 pm
I think I’ll give her 15%. For me personally I don’t know that much about her other than the fact that she ran for treasurer.

Comment by Levois Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:11 pm
Good point YDD

Comment by Kevin Fanning Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:11 pm
Lately Radogno is one of the few members of the dwindling Sen. Repub Caucus that can make Brady look like a moderate. Ever since the remap in 2002 she has pushed harder and harder to the right.

Comment by hmmmmm? Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:11 pm
One thing is for sure, the election in 2010 will provide Rich sufficent revenue to buy that small carribean island he has always wanted.

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:16 pm
I would like to see an Illinois woman governor, and in Lisa and Sen. Radogno we have two excellent candidates. I would vote for either if running against someone else, but I’d need more information to decide between them, and Lisa would have to convince me that the massive corruption brought by the Democrats under Blago/Emil would not continue under her watch….not at all a sure thing, no matter how motivated she is towards change.

Comment by Cassandra Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:20 pm
She’s Corrine Wood II only with less expensive clothes. I seriously doubt she could survive a primary against Brady.

Comment by Amuzing Myself Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:23 pm
If he wore wire-rim glasses and trimmed his hair just a little, Dillard would look just like the Big Jim Thompson of 25 years ago. Talks just like him on TV. Might have to lose a little weight.

On paper, Radogno looks like an interesting candidate — south suburbs, ethnic, Catholic. They’ve got to appeal to suburban women somehow. If nothing else, she’s letting the GOP know she’ll want a good spot on the ticket.

Before anyone says JBT: Judy Baar Topinka, like Judy Tenuta, is unique, an accordion player and an acquired taste that many would just as soon not acquire.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:23 pm
YDD, I’m thinking Dillard and maybe even Cross are looking at AG if LMadigan moves up.

Radogno lost to Giannoulias by over 400,000 votes in 2006 - slightly more than Topinka’s loss. She raised just $644,000 in the last six months of 2006 and cultivated just a couple bigtime contributors.

I don’t think the run helped her a whole lot statewide.

But the statewide bug can be persistent.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:23 pm
===buy that small carribean island he has always wanted.===

Nah. A Greek island would be far more preferable.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:26 pm
Dog, imho, US Reps are rarely frontrunners for anything statewide. 5 miles from their district no one knows who the hell they are.

Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:28 pm
Chris is ok. At least she is not a religious fanatic or a narcissist like the usual Repub suspects, or both, like Ozinga. She could win a primary but has no chance at the general unless you know who is the Dem candidate. Then all bets are off.

Comment by Bill Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:31 pm
Greek Island??? I thought that Rick was struggling just to get by…

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:36 pm
OH NO ! I meant RICH not Rick…sorry

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:37 pm
Chances of running: 85%
Chances of winning: 2%

Sounds like she’s been drinking her own kool-aid

Comment by Anonymous45 Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:42 pm
YDD –

Do you think there’s any likelihood the GOP might reach out beyond the pool of current elected officials? Are there any high-profile corporate types (apart from Gidwitz — ick!) who might be interested in a run?

Comment by soccermom Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:44 pm
Capt Fax are you excluding BrickHeadJoe because of your hatred of DuPage County or just to see if the BJ fans are awake?

Comment by Wild Bill Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:46 pm
I like Chris, but I think the strongest GOP candidate for governor will be Gidwitz in 2010.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:47 pm
I was reacting to YDD, Wild Bill. I’m guessing Birkett is also gearing up for another shot at AG if LMadigan tries to move up.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:48 pm
I like her. But can she raise the money to compete? I think it will be tough for her to raise significant $$ and therefore believe she will not run.

Comment by 2for2 Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:58 pm
So why would a candidate who gets trounced in an open seat for state treasurer make people think she can win the state’s highest office. She has no money, no name ID, and no support from conservatives.

Comment by 4% Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:59 pm
If Gidwitz is the best Republicans can do in 2010, they might as well pack it in for another four years.

It is difficult, very difficult, to make the leap from CEO to candidate. Look at Hull, Gidwitz, Jack Ryan, even Paul Vallas.

CEO types might make great executives in the public sector — there’s alot of debate about that, just look at George W. Bush, the first CEO President.

But they all have a very difficult time being candidates. They are used to selling The Soup, not being The Soup. They don’t like being told “Say this, go there, talk to her, ask this guy for money.” Especially not by some 24 year-old “kid”.

And they may in fact experts on running for-profit organizations, branding, marketing, etc. But political campaigns are inherently different from selling cosmetics.

If I were looking for a CEO type to run for Governor in either party, I’d look for a CEO of a non-profit organization, not a for-profit organization. Non-profits sell ideas, not soup, and that’s much more akin to politics.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:03 pm
I think the primary is Brady’s to lose. If he can demonstrate appeal to the center of the party, and not just the far right, in the many months leading up to the primary season, he will run off some of the other candidates. His very early announcement gives him the opportunity to court the party center. Now he needs to actually pull it off. Plus, what about another run at state treasurer if AG tries to move up?

Comment by Downstate weed chewing hick Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:08 pm
YDD, you’re on a roll today, and I see your point. But I’m wondering if anyone outside of the political arena, profit or non-profit, can muster the support these days for a successful run.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:10 pm
Rich -

Alot of people are going to be looking at Attorney General on both sides of the aisle if Madigan moves up as expected.

Cross has two big problems. His support for abortion rights and stem cell research are not going to go over big with the party’s base. And his death penalty reforms that he pushed a few years ago — trailer language to the Obama bill — in order to suck up to the Tribune REALLY ticked off state’s attorneys across the state. They thought it left the death penalty law inoperable, and some rightwing candidate is going to argue that cross pushed to abolish the death penalty “as we know it.”

The problem for ALL Republicans lining up for the AG job is:

1) Madigan’s done a pretty good job, by all accounts, and will be talking about her record as she runs for governor, which makes it tough for Republicans to argue that Democrats in general are too soft for the office.

2) I think Madigan’s been pretty effective as well at redefining the job as “The people’s lawyer” instead of “the state’s top prosecutor,” a rebranding of the office that favors democrats talking about consumer protection, privacy rights, open government, etc.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:13 pm
The repub caucus, with that overly-cranky but well-financed hard-conservative faction is so fratricidal, they’ll just implode, with Brady perhaps staggering out oif the final dustcloud, pre-damaged, and without the full support of all the factions, like Judy was. Rod beat Judy for two reasons: he absolutely buried her and her message under a lot of commercials full of lies and spin, which she was unable to counter for lack of funds. The second part is those funds, and the spoil-sport hard conservatives that held back, took their ball and went home, preferring Rod win and Judy lose, then they not get their “proper respect”.

They did none of us any favors, and because of it I don’t think they have a prayer. Our salvation must come from a Dem primary challenger and the US Dept. of Justice.

Comment by what's a decimal here or there Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:16 pm
So would Obama do an ad for Blowhard, I mean Dillard?

Comment by Wumpus Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:17 pm
If Radogno couldn’t beat a neophyte like Alex G, I can’t figure out why she thinks she can beat anyone else. Several of those other potential moderate candiddates listed by YDD look more formidabla that Radagno to me. She has no chance of becoming the GOP nominee for Governor.

If the Dem incumbents vacate one of the lesser constitutional offices, she chould take another shot rather than biting off more than she can chew.

Comment by Captain America Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:17 pm
Anon -

Yes, if party regulars are willing to think outside the box.

The problem is that oftentimes, party leaders ARE The Box.

But, without having met him or her, I can’t think of a reason why the President of the Illinois PTA - with 190,000 members - couldn’t run for Governor.

Or a former head of a foundation, United Way, etc.

Its not the length of your resume that gets you elected, your resume just gets you in the door, the election is the job interview.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:26 pm
As a mid-stater I do not know this person…her name recogition will be a problem…the problems with all Repubs these days. Brady could be the focus…but again name recog. There really is NO shining star in focus or in the future…BIG PROBLEMS.

Comment by Siyotanka Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:26 pm
Brady opposes teaching evolution in schools.

You think execs at Monsanto are going to be writing him checks for the general election?

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:27 pm
The person who has, unnoticed, done a real good job is the incumbent Secretary of State. Is he in that job for life? Or does he want to go anywhere else? That is the premier position to move up from. That would be a great place for one of the young Dem Turks if he or she wanted to wait eight for the Governor slot to open up.

Comment by Truthful James Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:30 pm
I supported her for her treasurer run. But she voted for the Smoke Free Illinois act. Not only will I not volunteer to help the campaign, I won’t even vote for it. Stay in the Senate. 50% chance of running, 5% of winning the primary, 2 percent chance of winning the general… even against Rod.

Comment by Heartless Libertarian Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:43 pm
Kevin Fanning is secretly getting his name out so he can be the republican canidate for gov in 2010….

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:49 pm
Steve Schnorf writes: “Dog, imho, US Reps are rarely frontrunners for anything statewide. 5 miles from their district no one knows who the hell they are.”

Our current governor and senior US Senator were both US Reps before “moving up”.

To extrapolate your claim, being a state legislator should make it even more difficult to be considered a “frontrunner” for statewide office yet Lisa Madigan (IL Sen then AG), Judy Baar Topinka (IL Sen then Treas.) and several others all burst that bubble.

Being considered a frontrunner has more to do with base, fundraising ability and name recognition than current position.

…To the point, you responded to YDD’s earlier comment noting that Rep. Kirk may enter the race for governor under various circumstances. Rep. Kirk has some name recognition throughout the metropolitan Chicago area. The TV news doesn’t mention him as often (though he seems to get more TV time than, say, Melissa Bean, Judy Biggert, Peter Roskam, etc — all suburban legislators). He appears on Chicago area radio (mostly conservatives stations). And the newspapers… the newspapers ask how high when his staff says jump.

Comment by Rob_N Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:50 pm
Madigan’s done a pretty good job, by all accounts,

Here’s an opponent’s commerical.

cue worried looking woman ‘There are so many abandoned houses in our neighborhood’

Narrator “Lisa Madigan was Attorney General when Countryside, and other predatory lenders were making loan to people who couldn’t afford them. She did nothing, until it was too late”.

worried woman: “Why didn’t someone DO something when this mess was happening?”

Narrator: “Lisa Madigan - when predatory lenders were wreaking havoc on our neightborhoods, she did nothing. What was she thinking?”

Comment by Pat Collins Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:51 pm
===Kevin Fanning is secretly getting his name out so he can be the republican canidate for gov in 2010….===

Lol, in what dimension Ghost?

Comment by Kevin Fanning Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:53 pm
Yellow Dog, Kirk spent his entire staffer career with porter in the minority so I think you sound a bit desperate to get rid of a man in a purple district up 20 points right now, that keeps destroying the same charges Seals and Lauren Beth Gash have been throwing at him now for 3.5 and 8 years.

For the rest of the republican names, the party goes nowhere until they innovate with different campaign tactics, new ideas, new agendas, and new coalitions.

Comment by North Shore Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:53 pm
YDD - you are en fuego today!

I totally agree with you about Brady. I thought he was going to be a very formidable candidate in ‘06 until he said he “opposes teaching evolution in schools.” Ooops! Stuff like that makes all the wealthy GOP business types in the Chicago area think he is a hillbilly.

Radogno has no chance either though. There aren’t many Republicans left in Illinois, but those who are here aren’t going to vote for a moderate in the primary.

Comment by Napoleon has left the building Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:56 pm
Pat, that “ad” is way off the mark. LMadigan did push for predatory lending curbs. They passed. Blagojevich blocked them. Remember?

Try again.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:57 pm
Here is the response add.

Que a Judge sitting at a bench…

In Illinois courts require people to have evidence of their claims befoe they act. The court system is glad to see an attorney general who investigates cases and gathers information before trying to bring a suit. Lisa Madigan is all about responsible enforcement; apparently her opponet does not get boged done with concepts such as proof.

Comment by Ghost Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:58 pm
If there are enough men in the primary it might just work for her. It will be interesting to watch.

Comment by OneManBlog Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 1:59 pm
I think DuPage’s Schillerstrom could be strong GOP candidate for Governor–
he’s moderate, has a decent record, can play ball with both sides of the aisle, and could raise boku bucks–

Comment by Anonymous45 Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 2:07 pm
Given the recent history of the Illinois GOP, I think Sen. Brady’s doubts on the Theory of Evolution are reasonable.

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 2:12 pm
simple……..NONE. Go ahead and waste money and see if the party benefits or if she does.

Comment by dmb Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 2:24 pm
There aren’t many Republicans left in Illinois, but those who are here aren’t going to vote for a moderate in the primary.

“We are small, and oh so pure.”

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 2:41 pm
She wins the primary….conservatives split the vote and she wins. Yes…raising $$$$ is a factor…it’s a factor for all Repubs even if McCain is in the White House.

Brady…gimme a break. He finished a distant 3rd in the 06′ primary and isn’t entitled to anything. Plus he gets 0% in the city…and has lil effect in sub cook.

Birkett has a better chance at AG.

Comment by scoot Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 2:49 pm
NetschDem - Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 12:02 pm:

Radogno is a Topinka clone. If JBT couldn’t win, she won’t.

Huh? where have you been since remap. She could possibly be more right than Brady. However, in my opinion, all she needed to do was raise money last cycle, with Alexis ties, it was hers to loose, and boy did she. I like her personally, but sorry to say there is not enough personality in her for a state wide. ALthough I guess you could always point to Dan Hines to show personality doesnt matter (but dads ties to the speaker sure do:)).

Comment by Moderate Repub Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 2:52 pm
Regarding Gidwitz in the Chicago Tribune when it endorsed him in March, 2006…

==As CEO of Helene Curtis, he built a cosmetics business into an empire. As chairman of the State Board of Education, he ordered bureaucrats to visit Illinois classrooms to see how state policies affected schoolchildren. As chairman of the City Colleges of Chicago, he demanded that students’ curriculum meet the needs of the modern workplace. His mantra to board members (after he scuttled their pricey limo service): Look, folks, this is the last degree many of our students will ever earn. We need to make sure they’re employable.

Gidwitz’s detractors say he’s abrasive. Yes, he’s all-business. He doesn’t suffer fools. Yes, he’s been a political insider, a contributor to politicos in both parties. But the GOP hierarchy isn’t backing him in this race, all the more reason to believe him when he says he’ll commandeer the bully pulpit, murmur “Brace yourselves,” and roust clubby lobbyists, lawyers and legislators from the rotunda and into the sunlight.==

Gidwitz is more than just another CEO. He has experience being “the soup”, as you call it.

Don’t be so dismissive of businesspeople. We have enough lawyers and politicians running Illinois into the ground, don’t we. If you take a look at how poorly state government is being operated today, a few businesspeople would be a vast improvement.

Illinois is ready for change. What we’ve gotten over the past seven years is horrific. They will be ready for a governor who is a professional for a change.

Gidwitz looks good.

Comment by VanillaMan Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:12 pm
Senator who? Could not elected Treasurer?

Comment by decaturvoter Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:15 pm
Pat -

Not only is your ad way off, but I’m not sure who you think would run it.

Certainly not Rod Blagojevich…in addition to Rich’s point, Blagojevich’s Department of Financial Institutions is responsible for regulating lenders.

And certainly not the Republicans…if you think that the Illinois Chamber is going to bankroll ads calling for a crackdown on lenders, well, good luck with that.

North Shore -

I’m not desperate to get rid of Mark Kirk. Personally, I think he’s the most formidable candidate that the Republicans could hope to put forward right now for Governor.

That said, I’d love to see the poll that has him up 20 points right now against Dan Seals. He only beat Seals 53-47 in ‘06, and the only thing that’s changed is Bush’s #’s have gotten worse, the district’s gotten more Democratic, and Obama is at the top of the ticket.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:25 pm
VM, this gets back to the question of whether government can/should be run like a business; or is it a very different kind of animal. I’ve gotten into some hellish arguments over this subject and still don’t have the answer.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:27 pm
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this yet, but where in the world is she going to come up with the amount of money needed to get her name and message out? I barely remember her running a couple years ago for office. And had NO CLUE who she was.

NONE and NONE.

Comment by BandCamp Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:29 pm
i mean seriously, are we really talking about republicans still? come on now…its over…even the rich guy republicans get their backsides kicked, because they are all terrible canididates…

Comment by Downstate GOP Faithless Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:38 pm
VanillaMan -

on Gidwitz: Chair of the state board of Education, City Colleges, both APPOINTED jobs. That’s not being The Soup, that’s being handed The Soup. BIG difference.

I’m not saying Gidwitz doesn’t have a great resume, I’m saying having a great resume doesn’t make you a great candidate.

Ask John Schmidt.

And I’m not being dismissive of business people, but you shouldn’t be dismissive of lawyers or politicians either.

Last time I checked, fewer than 1 in 5 members of the Illinois House are lawyers, considering the fact that the job title is “lawmaker”, that’s pretty amazing.

I think roughly as many Republicans as Democrats with JDs.

In fact, I’d bet there are probably nearly as many small business owners and MBA’s in the General Assembly as lawyers, if not more. But many are in safe districts where they’ve never had a real race.

Probably a significant number of educators in the mix too (schoolteachers, principals, school board members).

So, with the lawyers being in the minority, lets not blame them for our troubles.

As for those darn “politicians,” just a slanted word for public servant. Sara Feigenholtz, Connie Howard, Will Davis, John Bradley…”politicians”? Gimme a break.

And finally, lets be honest about why more successful business people don’t go into public service. The pay cut, plain and simple.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:42 pm
Yellow Dog,

http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecry
pt/0508/Poll_Kirk_with_21_point_lead_.html

John McClaughlin is a reputable pollster, who usually has good advice-it would be interesting to see if Seals has paid for polls he hasn’t released which would demonstrate he’s not doing as well as he claims publicly and shed doubt on his candidacy. It’s also worth noting he’s spent the last 3.5 years of good democratic political enviornment and several million dollars hitting Kirk with the same message he is now, and he’s back at square one.

Comment by North Shore Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:49 pm
Doesn’t Billy (Brady) still have outstanding debt from his last ill-fated attempt at the Guv job? I really don’t understand how people can think he has any appeal. His views on non-issues like the theory of evolution are nothing compared to his inability to establish himself as a difference maker or leader on some of the more practical and pressing matters facing our state (eg, the budget, capital projects).

Given the names being thrown around it really frightens me that this is the best Republicans (whom I affiliate myself with BTW) can do in Illinois.

Comment by INdupage Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 3:57 pm
When it comes to name recognition not many GOPers have it statewide…mainly becasue the Dems control every statewide office. Did anyone know who Congressman Blagojevich was in 02?

Now…does anyone not know him?

Comment by scoot Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 4:18 pm
The same John McLaughlin who had McCain beating Obama 49 - 38 among women quoted on June 5th?

Only to be completely contradicted by Gallup on June 11th, which has Obama over McCain 51-38 among women?

Perhaps McLaughlin’s slipping just a bit. Just a bit.

As for Seals not releasing his poll results, I don’t blame him. Early polls are something you share with donors and party insiders, not the public, and certainly not your opponent.

If I was Seals’ campaign manager, I’d want Kirk campaigning like he was 20 points up too.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 4:43 pm
Radogno made a positive impression on the GOP base is 2006. Republicans understand that 2006 was a terrible year to be on the ballot and wont be too critical of Radogno because of her numbers. While I think the party faithful would like to see her run again, I doubt they want to see her at the top of the ticket. Steve Schnorf is correct about Mark Kirk, he is not well known outside of his district. When the base learns about his voting record, he will have ZERO chance of winning the Primary. ZERO. The base has not settled on a particular candidate but most votes (60% plus) will be cast for a candidate that campaigns as an authentic pro-life, fiscal conservative, who wants to cut the size of government and the amount of taxes we pay. They will look for a candidate that has been thoroughly vetted so as to avoid a repeat of Jack Ryan. They are not looking for a multi-millionare who wants to start at the top ala Oberweis, and they want very much some one who is not tied to previous scandals. Finally, they are not looking for the angry white guy who makes people feel bad about being a Republican, they are looking for a cheerful, positive figure, ala Reagan, to lead them proudly foward. Identify that candidate and you are identifying the next GOP nominee for Governor. I am not sure Christine fits that discription and I am not sure a majority of the GOP primary voters believes Brady has proven that he does. If a candidate emerges fitting that discription the primary will be over before the filing deadlines very much like the 2000 presidential race, when the base,looking to win, decided to rally around W early eventhough there were other good people running.

Comment by Joe D's Cousin Ralph Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 4:59 pm
Radogno is a good candidate for Republicans. she is far from JBT, with a serious but not dour personality. she may have suffered in the race against AG because of JBT. Radogno got her start in environmental issues as a community activist who was not affilitated with a party. the Republicans were smart to go
after her for elective office. they would be smart to give her serious consideration for a place on their ticket, even as gov.

Comment by Amy Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 5:12 pm
Two things:

On Gidwitz and the business thing: Oberweis was a business guy. Need we go further?

On issues like evolution, etc: The name of the game in 2010 is money. Period. You have enough money, you make yourself whatever your polling shows the people want. That simple. There are probably more people on this board that know/care about that “evolution in schools” thing than the entire rest of the state. Like everything else, there’s another side to every charge thrown out in a campaign. Question is, will the attacked have enough cash to respond. This early in the process, that remains to be seen on the GOP side.

Comment by AnonymousGOP Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 5:19 pm
Ron Gidwitz unfortunately did an absentee landlord job at the ISBE, If he had understood what what it was all about, and cared, he could have been absolutely first to reform the Illinois school mess, overcome the teacher monopoly, caused a reworking of the annual financial reporting which has been permissive in nature, regarding unblanced budgets and financisl reports and could have made a nemae for himself which would have carried him into prominence statewide.

Instead, he appears to have been disintereted and let the status quo ante be.

Comment by Truthful James Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 5:34 pm
I have no idea what her chances of running are, but I think she has virtually no chance of winning. Too bad, too, because personally I like her and I like her moderate stance. But I don’t think that many people know too much about her, and to be honest, although they won’t say it, I many people are still not ready for a female governor. To run for the top office, you need to be aggressive and confident, and when women try to portray themselves that way, many voters are turned off by it. Somehow, a man coming off as confident looks exactly that - confident - while a woman who displays confidence is often viewed as a smug biotch. It’s unfortunate, but true.

Comment by Too bad Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 5:47 pm
Radogno will be a formidable candidate and possibly a winner unless she is matched up against Lisa Madigan in the general election. Here’s why: the next governor of Illinois will be elected by suburban moms. They will be the swing vote that trumps all others. A strong female candidate that can connect and sell her message to this group will win. Radogno is the only chance the Republicans have at taking back the governors office. And those of you that say she has no chance of winning may be right. But that will be an indictment on the weakness of the Republican party at the statewide level. Christine is smart and if she makes the right moves could be a force to be reckoned with. If she loses, you can bet the Republicans will be out of power for another 10 years.

Comment by southern illinoisan Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 5:53 pm
===Here’s why: the next governor of Illinois will be elected by suburban moms. They will be the swing vote that trumps all others. ===

Every statewide election I’ve covered since 1990 has hinged on suburban women. You win them, you win.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 6:04 pm
Amuzing Myself hits it on the head; face the facts.

People will confuse Radogno’s and Brady’s ads with JC Penney commercials (we already saw it) and end up 1) not voting or 2) going to the mall for some bargains.

They likely–no, actually will get more for their time and effort at Penney’s.

What happened to the GOP?

Former Sen. Barkhausen wrote an essay some years ago regarding the disintegration of the Republicans.

It was good reading and good insight.

Comment by Pony Shoe Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 6:20 pm
No way Radogno wins any statewide primary when the base wakes up and realizes she was one of only 3 Republican Senators to pass that special rights bill in 2005, i.e., the one that added sexual orientation to the list of protected classes under the Illinois Civil Rights Act. Placing sexual behavior on the same level as race and gender isn’t what the vast majority of Republicans believe.

Radogno’s got other baggage too, and she ran a lousy campaign in 2006 side-by-side with the accordian player. Her two-for-one offending of both Greeks and Italians when she accused Alexi of being “the Mob’s banker” was truly one for the political hall of shame.

This whole discussion is somewhat academic anyway. Every one of these GOP candidates being talked about for Gov will get slaughtered by whichever Dem comes after Blago.

I don’t think Radogno, Brady or any of the others being talked about has what it takes. They’re all lightweights. Add to that the utter destruction of the Illinois GOP.

Our recent state convention in Decatur was proof to the world that the Illinois GOP doesn’t even have plans to get serious.

I agree with the poster above who said the Illinois GOP has yet to hit bottom. It’s incredible but true.

Comment by Republican waiting for the next GOP disaster Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 6:51 pm
Wordslinger: South suburbs, ethnic, Catholic; these folks are culturally Democratic; not completely liberal, but they will vote for the real thing rather than a wannabe, i.e. Nunzio’s wife.

Republican waiting for the next GOP disaster: They HAVE hit rock bottom. McKenna is digging even deeper.

Comment by Pony Shoe Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 7:25 pm
First off, I’ll confess that I’m very pessimistic about the climate for the subject election. People are going to be hurting badly and they’re going to be extremely angry (both old and new anger).

Current trends show that they’re starting to believe that there may NOT be enough to go around after all, and they’re going to be full of surprises.

Donations are at a lull, they’re getting sick of articles in the paper on how to live with only one car, they’re losing their property, stores are closing, kids’ prostitution rings that are close to being able to compete with those in the third world are being busted, no one’s flying anywhere, jobs are still being shipped overseas, prices are rising, unemployment is bad, and they can’t afford to send their kids to school, let alone fund their own continuing education to “re-tool” for the next booming industry or profession that no one’s identified yet.

Right or wrong, Voters are going to want a VERY Patriotic, Warmongering, Old-Guard Republican who couldn’t care less about social issues because he’s only interested in rebuilding Corporate AMERICA–teleported to the State level.

If any woman could even make it in that climate, it’ll be Lisa.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 8:46 pm
Anon 8:46 has a point that goes beyond 9/11/01.

In the present day, the two best areas the US excels in are communication (MSM included) and transportation.

When people do not travel, or are otherwise afraid to go anywhere, the economy goes down, regardless of world events.

I bought some item the other day that had a sticker on it with an American flag that said “U.S. Tech Support Available.”

No names because I’m sure there’s more.

Not a good idea if we are ever in another World War.

Our national security and self-reliability (or lack thereof) are topics I’d like to see Obama and McCain address.

Comment by Pony Shoe Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 9:35 pm
She’s not ready for the big one. Go for a smaller one, Chris, and surround yourself with good people this time.

Comment by Truth Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 10:18 pm
Agreed. And the best thing that the Press could do right now for this Nation is hold the Candidates accountable for sticking to the REAL issues by downplaying the “sideshows” Voters will have a tendency to flock toward in the short-term to distract themselves due to current conditions so that they can make the right decisions for the longer term. (E.g., should we be concerned that Michelle’s wearing clothes ala Jackie-style or whether there’s a hidden message in the color of the dress she chose to wear on The View?)

I don’t believe that without that “intervention”, if you will, people will allow themselves to piece current events together to try to forecast what 2012 might be like, including the rammifications of what could happen at the State level.

For some, doing so is going to include having to consider that perhaps what we’ve believed in and pushed so hard to realize (much of it in response to 9/11) may be detrimental to our own well-being.

Not a surprising reaction to such a horrific event, but it’s time to get it together again as a Nation.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 10:43 pm
While I’m on a roll, special message to Zell just in case someone can slip this into his office:

Whip out your flag, Sam. Crack the whip, and tell your creative types to figure out a way to make some money engaging people in the important news.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Jun 26, 08 @ 11:59 pm
Truth speaks the truth. Radogno should get out of politics entirely, as she will sandbag some conservatives into voting for her against their own interests.

Comment by Pony Shoe Friday, Jun 27, 08 @ 12:43 am
To Repub waiting for next GOP… I agree with you I don’t follow the GOP closely but what I have seen of the Sen in Springpatch she is not out going or friendly but rather sour. What does her husband do?
As for the IGOP convention it was on local cable here. Thank God the Dems don’t do that it was foolish, even Boy Wonder from Peoria came off flat and his message was strange.

Comment by Anon Friday, Jun 27, 08 @ 8:20 am
Radogno reminds me of former NJ Guv Christine Todd Whitman…it can happen

Comment by scoot Friday, Jun 27, 08 @ 11:11 am
Radogno has moved FAR to the right to placate the right wing male led Senate GOP caucus which made her Deputy Leader for window dressing. That will kill her in the general election.Her voice is too squeeky or high pitched for T.V. and radio… a big negative.

Comment by Politico Pete Friday, Jun 27, 08 @ 12:11 pm
Brady’s problem is he lied to the voters in the last election and that won’t go away. Both Senators have a huge problem raising money. Brady was quoted in the Herald as saying the Gov election will cost 10 to 12 million! Remember Sen Brady said he would raise 3 million last time and he raised $300,000, he told anyone who would listen he was the one @32% in his late polls and Oberweis was @ 18%. It turned out to be the opposite bad for business for the Pol to lie to his base, they always remember and will never trust him. Gidwitz is doing outreach to the right and has been working with the grassroots for the last 3 years. Sen Rodogno has no chance of being the consensus candidate who would make that determination? Andy? Please. No the race is not as open as it would seem the winner of the primary has to build a bridge between the factions and Gidwitz to me seems to be on the right course.

Comment by One of the 32% Friday, Jun 27, 08 @ 1:16 pm