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Saying the quiet part out loud (Updated)

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Illinois
Polls

Covering politics for three decades left me with a lifetime of takeaways, but a compelling one that resurfaces more often than most, as we try to explain widespread public perceptions of politicians, is the importance of narrative.

It’s an overarching media-and-consultant-driven storyline that, for better or worse, defines, describes and tends to stick to candidates and elected officials like glue until the passage of time or a figurative solvent — an unanticipated major event — pries it loose.

Emphasis added.

* Meanwhile, I’m not at all saying that President Biden is not in political trouble and that he’s not weighing down his fellow Democrats. He’s obviously in trouble and people are most definitely freaking the heck out. All I’m saying is hyping a partisan congressional district poll of just 309 likely voters taken 9-10 days ago and calling it “new” doesn’t really add much to the debate, but does feed into the national news media/consultant narrative…

A NEW POLL in the IL-11 District suggests the Biden crisis is having an impact. The survey conducted by Republican challenger Jerry Evans’ campaign against incumbent Congressman Bill Foster shows Biden at 38 percent to Trump’s 37 percent. In 2020, Biden won the district 62 percent to 36 percent. The poll also shows a close race for Congress, with a generic Democrat leading a generic Republican by 3 points, 45 percent to 42 percent with 13 percent undecided.

In a head-to-head, Foster beats Evans 41 percent to 34 percent but with 35 percent undecided. The Cygnal survey was conducted July 2 and 3, five days after the Biden-Trump debate. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.55 percentage points.

…Adding… The 11th is no longer the overwhelmingly Democratic district it was in 2020. When you look at the district’s current precincts, Biden won in 2020 by 15 points - which is 11 points less than he won the old district. Also, while JB Pritzker won the district in 2022 by about 13 points, he only won it by 2.5 points in 2018. Foster won the new district in 2022 by 13 points. I should’ve checked those numbers in the quoted story above, but made the mistake of relying on what was written.

Methodology…

This probabilistic survey was conducted July 2 – 3, 2024, with 309 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of ±5.55%. Known registered voters were interviewed via online panel and SMS. This survey was weighted to a likely general election voter universe.

* Also, reputable polls in battleground states haven’t yet shown a dramatic impact on down-ballot races. And then there’s this from yesterday…

(A)ny post-debate analysis using polling to justify sweeping conclusions about the state of the race is way out ahead of the data. This soon after the debate, with relatively few polls having come home to roost, there are early indications that Biden has lost at least a point or two in the polls, but the early indications are just that — early indications. (This is why, as G. Elliott Morris explains here, 538’s forecast hasn’t changed much post-debate.)

Deep breaths, please.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 11:49 am

Comments

Has any president in modern history had almost 10% of his members in the House call for him to drop out of the race? This feels pretty unprecedented to me.

And polls-wise, you’re right. Not enough time has passed to measure an impact from the debate with traditional polls. But we knew WELL before the debate that the age question was Biden’s biggest political vulnerability. It went from “eh he’s old but seems fine” to now “omg he’s old and can barely string a sentence together.”

I think the dam’s breaking. Biden has been behind for awhile, but before it seemed like he had a path to come back. Now, it seems like that path has evaporated.

Comment by Lakeview Looker Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 11:57 am
Not surprising from Politico and its current IL newsletter editor.

Comment by Tournaround Agenda Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 12:02 pm
The net effect of the totality of US political media is that its citizens are significantly dumber than they would otherwise be. It’s pretty rare to read ‘political reporting’ that even discusses public policy let alone acknowledges that it is the underlying reason for the horse races and interpersonal drama the journalists love so much.

Having said that I appreciate the acknowledgement that facts don’t have anything to do with it when a political reporter has a new narrative bauble they want to play around with.

Comment by Larry Bowa Jr. Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 12:04 pm
If not Biden, then who?

And if the answer isn’t Harris, then you’re back to Biden.

This whole conversation has no end game except a Dem White House loss.

Comment by Socially DIstant watcher Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 12:19 pm
It is not surprising that polls were close, then a candidate had a horrible event, then the polls widened. That’s the history of polling after debates. Debates have a short-term impact on opinion.

I look at Biden as an old man - an Elder.

If he were to die in office, he would join 8-of-the-past-46 presidents. In each previous case, American survived, and the Vice President took the President’s place.

On the other hand, the current president is visibly showing signs of aging. I pray I live long enough to show these same signs. That my party elders and like pundits are so quick to spread the message prematurely of Biden’s “death” (aging) is a sign of ageism to a large degree.

Fearing Trump, many of my democratic colleagues are panicking. I suppose they fear the equally plausible potential that young voters (under 30) are likely not to vote for Biden because he is old, as they are likely to not vote for Trump because he is a convicted felon, guilty of sexual assault, the face of an insurrection attempt, etc.

If the media spent less time obsessing about Biden’s age, and more time focusing on the platform issues, perhaps ageism would not be driving the current polling.

Comment by H-W Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 12:29 pm
=If the media spent less time obsessing about Biden’s age, and more time focusing on the platform issues, perhaps ageism would not be driving the current polling.=

The 2016 election changed 10 days before the election based on a single issue. Enough independent voters changed to change the outcome.

This election will have many more ebbs and flows but, collectively, Americans have the memory of a gnat and the reliability of soviet era tractor.

Right now Biden is in trouble and he never would have been my first choice this go around. Things can change, the democrats need to get on the stick and I mean 6 months ago. Both tribes core voters were locked in a loooong time ago. Focus on swing states, minority voters, women, and undecideds. They also better step up the GOTV or none of it will matter.

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 12:44 pm
To paraphrase the wisest person of all in the universe, Ferris Bueller, “My best friend’s sister’s boyfriend’s brother’s girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid…” that President Biden should drop out.

But no one talks about the other candidate who said something about Jewish space lasers and getting boarding group 6 because french fries are greasier now because children in schools dress like cats and that will reduce tariffs on Simoozistan.

Is there any polling on this?

Comment by Jerry Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 12:48 pm
=== If he were to die in office, he would join 8-of-the-past-46 presidents. In each previous case, American survived, and the Vice President took the President’s place. ===

I don’t think the concern is Biden dying in office, but rather what happens if he doesn’t? Who is going to make the decisions on topics that this elder statesman can no longer comprehend? How are other nations going to react when they come to the realization that Biden’s presidency is now like “Weekend at Bernies”?

To me, there are so many Democrats that are to blame for this. I don’t buy for a second that Democratic members of Congress, staff and others that interacted with the President didn’t realize that he was losing cognitive ability. They should have said something then before things were too late.

Comment by Hannibal Lecter Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 1:27 pm
===can no longer comprehend?===

https://www.law.cornell.edu/constitution/amendmentxxv

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 1:35 pm
Hardly a fan but even I am starting to feel sorry for the President everyone in a position to know of course was aware of Biden’s limitations at least for the past couple of years nevertheless the Democratic Party essentially froze out anyone who could meaningfully challenge Biden for the nomination at a time when getting a new nominee thru normal processes could have occurred Now suddenly after Biden is essentially their nominee - his party is pummeling him every day over things outside of his control -it’s not the President who has created the problem but his party and the treatment they are throwing at him is IMO absolutely disgusting

Comment by Sue Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 2:33 pm
In my opinion, current polling is secondary. Obviously Biden winning is not outside the realm of possibility.

But Donald Trump is an historically unpopular, vulnerable candidate. 34 felonies. January 6th. Roe v Wade. Tried to repeal the ACA. Wants to raise taxes on families making 100k but lower them on families making millions.

I want a democratic candidate that can forcefully make that case to the press and the public every single day, coherently and consistently. With Biden, we have to hold our breath every time he appears in public and wonder if it’ll be debate Biden or STOTU Biden.

Moreover, the Trump team have been largely holding their fire since the debate. They haven’t been spending in swing states, Trump hasn’t been tearing into Biden’s debate performance, and so on.

It just seems obvious to me that Kamala would be able to make a better case than Joe right now.

Comment by NewToSpringfield Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:03 pm
For the last 250 years, the most basic driving force behind politics is the vanity of old white men. The president’s defenders blame ageism, elites, the media… everyone but Joe Biden, who most clearly showed the entire world, not only through the debate, but the horrible response to it, that he is no longer capable of being the leader of the free world. It is entirely nonsensical for him to continue. Our country is too important to let Donald Trump be president, or to have a president that needs an early bedtime and obviously cannot clearly function without it. This is the biggest job there is. That person must be 100% prepared at all times.

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:08 pm
===almost 10% of his members in the House call for him to drop out of the race?===

I think the current count is 18 out of 213 in the House, one of 51 Senators and no governors.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:24 pm
- Ducky LaMoore - Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:08 pm

Very well said. In my opinion, both Biden and Harris should leave for a fresh ticket, but obviously that wont happen. Depressing.

Comment by low level Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:27 pm
There is much sturm und dang over Biden’s debate performance just as there was during the first campaign over his faux pas and anything else that could be found to critique him on. But the fact remains that he has been a superb president. He is running against a lying convicted felon, convicted sex abuser, indicted traitor who has no more mental capacity than an orange. This obsession and Democratic circular firing squad is only helping 45 and hurting Biden. Whatever his flaws, Biden is so far superior to the would be autocrat that it pains me to see fellow Democrats once more shoot ourselves in the foot aided, as always, by the media. For God’s Sake, get over this obsession and look at Biden’s record and move on.

Comment by old man Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:30 pm
===For the last 250 years, the most basic driving force behind politics is the vanity of old white men.===

Exactly this. I think a lot of us are willing to vote Biden’s corpse before Trump, but think about how insane Biden’s ego has to be for him to really think he’s the best candidate right now. RBG gets bashed day in and day out for not stepping down and letting a democrat replace her, but I guess when it’s an old white man, we’re all supposed to fall in line.

Everyone saying “who should the frontrunner be?” is also uncomfortably willing to overlook the most obvious choice just because she’s a minority woman. You can’t claim “no one will vote for her” if you won’t even put her on the ballot.

Comment by Anon Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 3:39 pm
Politics is a cynical enterprise. Retaining power is the key for some and they will do anything to do so. In 1944, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was nominated and reelected to an unprecedented fourth term despite the fact that he was in failing health. He died less than four months into his term and was succeeded by Truman. Those calling for Biden to step down would be silent if he were leading in the polls and coasting to reelection. He isn’t and they want to ignore the primary results and choose another standard bearer for November 5, 2024.

Comment by Gravitas Friday, Jul 12, 24 @ 4:05 pm