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* From an email…
Loyola’s Center for Criminal Justice just published a research brief plus a data dashboard that looks at the use of probation versus prison in Illinois over the past 20 years across each of the 102 counties in the state. This is the first time information like this has been examined and made available in Illinois.
Bottom lines:
1) Because of the general drop in crime and arrests, the number of people convicted of a felony in Illinois has decreased, but so too has the likelihood that those convicted are being sentenced to prison. Among those convicted of Class 1-4 felonies, in 2010 45% got a prison sentence, by 2023 that fell to 34%;
2) This pattern is not due to Cook County alone, but rather, represents a shift in sentencing practices across most (70%) of Illinois’ 102 counties;
3) These shifts have likely occurred due to improved probation services, increased use of treatment courts, and a general shift in thinking about the most effective responses to crime, and;
4) The net impact of the change in sentencing patterns over the past 10 years translates to 30,000 fewer people sentenced to prison, which explains a lot of the decrease in the Illinois prison population.
* From the Loyola research brief…
* According to that research brief, “70% of counties saw a decrease in proportion of people sentenced to prison for a Class 1 to 4 Felony from 2010 to 2023″…
I asked about the roughly 30 percent which saw an increase. Here’s the list…
Adams, Bond, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Clark, Crawford, Fayette, Ford, Fulton, Gallatin, Hardin, Jackson, Jefferson, Jersey, Kendall, Lee, Logan, McDonough, McHenry, Menard, Ogle, Perry, Piatt, Pike, Randolph, Saline, Shelby, Wabash
You can look at the data by county or by category by clicking here. The dashboard allows you to look at urban vs. rural counties. Here’s the list of urban counties, which they took from IDPH…
Champaign, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall, Lake, Macon, Madison, McHenry, McLean, Peoria, Rock Island, Sangamon, St. Clair, Tazewell, Vermilion, Will, Winnebago
Four counties are missing in the data, either because they didn’t report 2023 numbers (DeWitt and Morgan) or, in the case of Greene and Scott, they consolidated probation departments.
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 7:55 am
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It is possible that a significant pattern of fewer prison sentences means fewer citizens stigmatized as convicts, meaning fewer citizens likely to repeat offend. We have long known that recidivism is associated with sentencing. Perhaps the reduction in per capita crime rates is a logical consequence of “second chance” policies.
Comment by H-W Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 8:32 am
Not locking up non-whites for weed probably has a lot to do with these numbers.
Those counties that have seen a growth-meth. We’re drowning in that plague down here.
Comment by Flyin'Elvis'-Utah Chapter Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 8:33 am
== Those counties that have seen a growth-meth. We’re drowning in that plague down here.==
Meth penalties are also higher than those for every other controlled substance, which makes no sense.
Comment by charles in charge Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 8:55 am
Bottom line 1)
“Because of a general drop in crime and arrests . . . “
Comment by Worth repeating Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 9:14 am
Other than McHenry county, they are all smallish counties. For what that’s worth.
Comment by Gfalkes Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 9:22 am
“Because of a general drop in crime and arrests..” this needs a closer look. reported crime vs. arrests. as does the drop in sentencing to prison. why? a similar look at juvenile crime would also be interesting. and neglect rates for parents…see the list of ages of juveniles arrested for the 11 pm attack on a man on the CTA.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 9:23 am
Flyin ‘Elvis’ - In 2019, the year before cannabis was legalized, there were a total of 208 people (out of 38,000) in prison for cannabis offenses (see https://idoc.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/idoc/reportsandstatistics/documents/cy19-department-data-fact-sheet.pdf) and most were for delivery of large quantities (which is still illegal). Most cannabis possession arrests in Illinois were misdemeanor offenses and could never result in a prison sentence.
Comment by RamblerFan Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 9:32 am
In other words, in 2019 .05% of the prison population was there for cannabis offenses. Bet that hasn’t changed in 2024.
Comment by HSI Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 9:46 am
@RamblerFan, important points on the prison count of those in on weed offenses. the issue has been wildly overstated by many. Wonder how many arrested for retail theft that would have been a felony had Kim Foxx actually enforced the law would have been sentenced to prison.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:00 am
Great time to remind everyone that length of sentence/severity of punishment has little to no effect on crime rates. We’ve known this for decades.
America loves lengthy prison sentences to satisfy our bloodthirsty revenge, not for practical outcome reasons.
Comment by Homebody Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:06 am
==Wonder how many arrested for retail theft that would have been a felony had Kim Foxx actually enforced the law would have been sentenced to prison.==
Yes I also wonder how many people would have been imprisoned under the nation’s second most punitive shoplifting law (much harsher than that of any surrounding state, whether “red” or “blue”) if SA Foxx had not decided to prioritize felony prosecution of violent crime and treat nonviolent property offenses as the misdemeanors they are in the majority of the country.
Comment by charles in charge Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:11 am
In the spirit of Sean Morrison’s letter, I’ll acknowledge that a precipitous drop occurred during the Rauner years.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:11 am
Genuine question - did the data take a look at the population shifts in the counties that saw increases? I’m guessing most all of those counties saw some percentage of population decrease.
Comment by WLDS News Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:13 am
I find the outliers interesting. Kendall and McHenry are both on the list as urban counties and also appear in the increase list, in contrast to all the other urban counties.
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:25 am
WLDS News, interesting question. I have noticed that as the population decreases in some towns in Iowa, certain types of violent and non-violent crime has increased. Whether it’s because of the population decline per se or the economic conditions (lack of decent paying jobs) that first led to the population decline, I don’t know.
Comment by cermak_rd Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:27 am
I’m sure Patrick Kenneally’s leadership in McHenry County has something to do with our numbers. The guy’s still honked off that we legalized weed.
Comment by Proud Papa Bear Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:34 am
Love me some Dr. Dave data analysis.
Comment by Politix Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:44 am
Amelia, Kimm Foxx announced her retail theft policy in December 2016 (the same month Governor Rauner’s bi-partisan Commission on Criminal Justice and Sentencing Reform recommended that the General Assembly “*Raise the threshold dollar amounts for theft not from a person and for retail theft from their current levels to $2,000.” (https://cjreform2015.icjia.cloud/pdf/CJSR_Final_Report_Dec_2016.pdf) Prior to Kim Foxx implementing her policy there were 997 people in prison (from all counties) for retail theft, out of 44,817 people in prison (https://idoc.illinois.gov/content/dam/soi/en/web/idoc/reportsandstatistics/documents/final-fact-sheet-department-data-fy2016.pdf)
Comment by RamblerFan Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:45 am
@Charles in charge, Illinois has different laws on abortion too.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 10:49 am
==@Charles in charge, Illinois has different laws on abortion too.==
Are you also against prosecutors in states with punitive abortion laws using their discretion to avoid enforcing those laws to their full extent? Shouldn’t they just “actually enforce the law”?
Comment by charles in charge Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 11:02 am
@Charles in Charge, I’m happily in Illinois and happy with the laws. which I want enforced.
Comment by Amalia Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 4:42 pm
== I’m happily in Illinois and happy with the laws. which I want enforced.==
Thanks for clarifying that your reverence for “the law” and your demand that prosecutors should always mindlessly enforce it in strict accordance with the statute is limited to those laws that you personally agree with.
Comment by charles in charge Wednesday, Jul 17, 24 @ 5:22 pm