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Here are the districts where Speaker Welch claims he can pick up four to six House seats

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Illinois

* Subscribers know a lot more about these races, but here’s a quick overview via my weekly newspaper column…

Illinois House Speaker Chris Welch has said he thinks he can flip somewhere between four and six Republican-held House districts to Democratic control, upping his supermajority to between 82 and 84 seats, from his current 78.

Which Republican districts are flippable? I talked with a high-level source close to Welch’s caucus who pointed to the following races:

47th House District: Rep. Amy Grant, R-Wheaton, vs. Jackie Williamson. President Joe Biden won this district by 12 percentage points four years ago. Every statewide Democratic candidate won the district two years ago, and Gov. JB Pritzker won it by 8 points.

Grant’s campaign had just $13,542 in the bank at the end of June. She’s since reported raising a mere $10,000. Keep in mind that the House Democrats have a vast and ever-growing fundraising advantage over the House Republicans. So the money that these Republican incumbents have raised so far is much more important to understanding their predicaments. Grant is a strong abortion rights opponent.

52nd House District: Rep. Marty McLaughlin, R-Barrington Hills, vs. Maria Peterson. Peterson lost to then-Senate Republican Leader Dan McConchie by just a few hundred votes two years ago. Biden won the 52nd by 6 points four years ago and all statewide Democratic candidates took it in 2022.

McLaughlin is personally wealthy, but he reported having just $100,000 on hand at the end of June and has reported raising $9,000 since then. He also has some labor support.

As with all of these districts, the Republican’s anti-abortion stances will play a major role in the Democrats’ campaigns.

114th House District: Rep. Kevin Schmidt, R-Cahokia Heights, vs. former Rep. LaToya Greenwood, D-East St. Louis. Greenwood’s 2022 loss to the Donald Trump-supporting Schmidt shocked the Black Caucus. Four years ago, Biden won the precincts in this redrawn district by more than 7 points. Before that, no statewide Democrat lost those precincts going back years. But the only statewide Dem who won the district in 2022 was U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth. The Republican Schmidt won it by almost 6 points.

The local NAACP and other Black leaders accused the House Democrats of taking too many Black precincts away from Greenwood during the remap and doling them out to neighboring white legislators. They ended up being right, at least as far as 2022 went.

The party line is that Greenwood lost because Black voters stayed home and Donald Trump voters surged to the polls. Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, the House Dems believe, will bring their base voters out in November. We’ll see.

104th House District: Rep. Brandun Schweizer, R-Danville, vs. Jarrett Clem. Schweizer was appointed to replace Rep. Mike Marron. Biden won the 104th by almost 4 points, and four out of six statewide Democrats carried the district two years ago (Kwame Raoul and Alexi Giannoulias both lost by 2 points). This has usually been a pro-union, pro-Republican region, but the tide may be changing after the remap, and the Democrat Clem has strong union support.

Schweizer isn’t well-known, and the Democrats think they can use their superior financial firepower to define him at will. Schweizer ended the quarter with $15,000 in the bank and has raised $21,000 since.

79th House District: Rep. Jackie Haas, R-Bourbonnais, vs. Billy Morgan. Biden lost this district by a point, and most Democrats lost the district in 2022, including Pritzker by 6. Even so, the House Democrats think they can pull this off, partly because the district is pro-union.

Haas ended the quarter with $62,000 in the bank and has reported raising $9,000 since then.

82nd House District: Rep. Nicole La Ha Zwiercan, R-Homer Glen, vs. Suzanne Akhras. La Ha Zwiercan was appointed to replace former House Republican Leader Jim Durkin. Trump won the district by 2 points, and no statewide Democrats carried it in 2022. Darren Bailey beat Pritzker by 3 points.

48th House District: Rep. Jennifer Sanalitro, R-Hanover Park, vs. Maria Vesey. Biden won the district by 2.6 points, and all statewide Democrats except Treasurer Mike Frerichs carried the 48th two years ago. The Democrats didn’t unearth photos of Sanalitro at the Jan. 6 “Stop the Steal” protests until very late in the game two years ago, so they’ll put that issue at the forefront of their campaign. Sanalitro insists that she wasn’t a protest participant. Sanalitro has been endorsed by the Illinois AFL-CIO, and the Workers’ Rights Amendment carried the district by 7 points two years ago.

Sanalitro ended the quarter with $69,000 and has reported raising $28,000 since then.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 6:27 am

Comments

I am not as astute on these as people like the Millers, but I think 81 or 82 seems like a very reasonable expectation.

Comment by Lurker Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 9:27 am
=Keep in mind that the House Democrats have a vast and ever-growing fundraising advantage over the House Republicans.=

Sanalitro has(so far anyway) a huge fundraising lead on Vesey…

Friends of Maria Vesey
Committee for Candidate Maria Vesey
$2,321
CASH ON HAND
$5,163
TOTAL CONTRIBUTIONS
$3,041
TOTAL EXPENDITURES

Comment by Donnie Elgin Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 9:30 am
Eroding the republican’t influence in the collar counties.

Can’t happen soon enough. The fewer republican’ts in office the better.

Comment by Huh? Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 9:52 am
The other day an ILGOP legislator was on the news basically phoning in the same old stale anti-Democratic Party talking points. No enthusiasm, no policies, no joy—only fear and doomsaying. They know why they are losing so badly, but are stuck with their voters.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 10:25 am
Suburban collar counties are increasingly minority, especially Hispanic. Even in the old days the GOP usually did not get above 58-60% vote in these areas.

This coupled with the GOP intransigence on the abortion issue provides a dual whammy on their future prospects.

Comment by Mason County Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 10:37 am
===Sanalitro has(so far anyway) a huge fundraising lead on Vesey…===

As usual, you completely missed the point. There are these people called legislative leaders who do most of the fundraising.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 10:44 am
If Dems get 80+, will we start to see the type of fracturing that we see in the Chicago City Council for example between centrists and more progressive elements?

A similar phenomenon can be seen in GOP dominated states where far right conservatives battle more mainstream officials.

Incidentally, this why Madigan preferred a majority that was just large enough but not too large. He wanted to prevent infighting and promote inter caucus cooperation.

Comment by low level Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 10:45 am
=This coupled with the GOP intransigence on the abortion issue provides a dual whammy on their future prospects.=

Maybe things have changed and I fully own that I do not no as much about voter demographics as a lot of people that post here, but Hispanic voters are pretty traditional and many are catholic so they may not be as pro choice as others as a voting block.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 10:47 am
@JS Mill.

Not certain how more ‘traditional’ Hispanics really are. That has always been the Karl Rove line. But national exit polls show over many decades that Hispanics vote c. 70% for Democrats. Have never seen State polls but would be very surprised if that number was lower.

Comment by Mason County Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 11:04 am
Unfortunately Maria Vesey has little to no campaign, check out her Facebook and campaign pages. Honestly surprised that the House Dem organization hasn’t stepped in here earlier in this thing. Sanalitro is visible in the district with job fairs, diaper donation events, has tied closely to Senator Seth Lewis, and has a big step up in that there is a sizable Italian American population in many of these towns. I would be shocked if she goes down.

Comment by Lunchbox Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 11:15 am
=Not certain how more ‘traditional’ Hispanics really are. That has always been the Karl Rove line. But national exit polls show over many decades that Hispanics vote c. 70% for Democrats.=

I don’t know about Karl Rove, but my experience working in a couple of school districts where the majority of my students were hispanic, and interacting with them regularly, my description was apt. It wasn’t about politics or gender identity so don’t try to make my comment something it wasn’t. And i never stated who they vote for. Illinois is a solid blue state. I was solely speaking to the issue of abortion and making assumptions. I am pro choice and if I were a democrat running for office I would not take anything for granted with any voting block. That is how trump won in 2016.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 11:16 am
Amy Grant in District 47 is only in there due to name recognition. The last time she ran the Democratic candidate didn’t have any name recognition. She even said a lot of bad things about him but didn’t matter.

Comment by GoneFishing Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 11:40 am
==Unfortunately Maria Vesey has little to no campaign==

It might not matter. Anyone remember Michelle Chavez?

Comment by low level Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 11:53 am
don’t know what districts it overlaps but the 12th judicial circuit in the NW suburbs has a hot judicial race, R candidate very organized. need some D synergy there.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 2:12 pm
== Dems get 80+, will we start to see the type of fracturing that we see in the Chicago City Council ==

The bigger the caucus, the bigger the fractures. It’s awfully hard to manage all those personalities…makes me wonder if the Speaker secretly hopes he’s not too successful.

Comment by TNR Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 2:31 pm
@JS Mill

I understand your reasoning. I was just commenting upon the final result of how this would play into future elections and the increase in the DEM Supermajority.

Comment by Mason County Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 2:32 pm
==makes me wonder if the Speaker secretly hopes he’s not too successful.==

I tend to agree with that.

Comment by low level Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 6:04 pm
GOP Legislators have spent the last few years making sure that they’ve been useless for everyone involved.

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Aug 19, 24 @ 7:09 pm
Lunchbox,
Maria Vesey is Italian. Her parents are Mario DeAngelis and Carol Palucci. Her great aunt is in the Italian American Veterans Museum in Schiller Park. She is third generation Italian on her mother’s side and second generation on her father’s side. I am told she still makes gravy every Sunday night.

Comment by TrueBlue Wednesday, Aug 21, 24 @ 3:35 pm
@TrueBlue, is it too late for Maria Vesey to run as Maria Palucci? /s

Comment by Lunchbox Monday, Aug 26, 24 @ 9:40 am