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IPI commisioned poll has more bad news for Mayor Johnson

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* M3 Strategies is a Republican pollster which did work for Paul Vallas last year, and this particular poll was conducted for the Illinois Policy Institute. However, their polling in the first round of the mayor’s race was dead-on. The results are also about three weeks old. I could go on, but take it for what it’s worth…

POLLING MEMORANDUM
To: Illinois Policy
From: M3 Strategies
Re: Chicago Poll – August 2024
Date: August 16, 2024

BACKGROUND

M3 Strategies surveyed 454 likely voters in Chicago from July 29 – August 2. The survey has a margin of error of 4.6% at 95% confidence. Respondents were randomly selected from a pool of individuals who are likely to vote. All responses were generated via SMS to web survey.

KEY FINDINGS

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson Favorability

• Overall Opinion: Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson is unpopular, with only 27% viewing him favorably (9% strongly favorable, 18% somewhat favorable) and a significant 63% holding an unfavorable view (44% strongly unfavorable, 19% somewhat unfavorable).
• Demographic Breakdown: Johnson’s support is highest among younger voters and the most liberal respondents, while conservatives, older voters, and white respondents hold the most unfavorable views.

o Even among self-described very liberal voters, only 51% approve of him.

Impact of CTU Financial Support on Voter Behavior

• Electoral Impact: Voters express significant opposition to candidates who take money from the CTU, with 55% indicating they would be less likely to vote for such candidates (39% much less likely, 15% somewhat less likely). Only 14% would be more likely to support a candidate receiving CTU funds, and for 31%, it would not make a difference.
• Demographic Breakdown: Opposition to CTU financial support is strongest among older voters, conservatives, and men. In contrast, younger voters and liberals are somewhat more open to candidates backed by the CTU, though even among these groups, opposition is substantial.

Which one or two of the following would you say is the biggest issue facing Chicago rightnow? (Select up to two)

Crime 26%
Recent Migrants from Central and South America 14%
High Taxes 13%
Housing 10%
City Governance 10%
Homelessness 9%
The Economy 7%
Education 7%
Other (please specify) 3%

Would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate for public office if they took money from CTU?

Much more likely 6%
Somewhat more likely 8%
No difference 31%
Somewhat less likely 15%
Much less likely 39%

Crosstabs are here.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:22 am

Comments

Doom grifters suck that said coulda had Chuy

Comment by Macon Bakin Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:29 am
Poor guy can’t catch a break….

Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:40 am
On one hand, “takes money from…” is an absolutely useless way to fairly gage public opinion of an organization. Poll respondents will always produce a negative reaction. Would much rather see a straight approve/disapprove of CTU.

On the other hand, monied interests, like the charter school folks, will certainly use that kind of polling info to shape their direct mail against CTU-backed elected school board candidates.

Comment by Roman Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:43 am
Recent bus loads of immigrants is the #2 issue facing the city? Kinda tells you who was polled here.

Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:47 am
So, 49% of “very liberals” are already immune to the brainwashing not even two years into his term? Not good.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:58 am
I agree @Roman that the words “took money” are loaded. You could have at least gone with something like “received campaign contributions” but I think the question was obviously loaded on purpose.

Comment by Lurker Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 8:58 am
= Kinda tells you who was polled here.=

Actually, you can tell who they polled by looking at the cross tabs. Fairly spot on when you look at the respondents’ political leaning (vast majority progressive to moderate). Age ranges are on par. But over polled white compared to overall share of Chicago demographic (45%), about right with black (29%), but under polling of Hispanics (15%). My sense is that if the number of Hispanics polled were higher, Johnson would have fared even worse in the polling.

Comment by phocion Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:09 am
Would’ve guessed that his favorables were south of a quarter, so congrats to him for surpassing my expectations.

Comment by TJ Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:22 am
“Took money” is terribly loaded phrasing. You could put “from kids running a lemonade stand” after “took money” and it would seem fishy.

Comment by The Truth Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:28 am
He is a one-term mayor, which makes him extremely dangerous.

Despite her myriad of issues, Lori Lightfoot tried to position herself to run for a second term.

Nothing BJ is doing is aimed at winning reelection; only moving heaven & earth to raise $$ for schools.

The big question for 2027 is whether Chicago voters learn that progressive promises don’t translate to governing. If not, the city will continue hemorrhaging middle-to-upper middle-class families.

Comment by LPDad Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:30 am
Lucky for him it will get better on crime, by far the biggest issue found in the poll. because either candidate for Cook County State’s Attorney will handle things very differently than current. he can always use his video from yesterday. he was actually good at the DNC podium.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:34 am
=but under polling of Hispanics (15%). My sense is that if the number of Hispanics polled were higher, Johnson would have fared even worse in the polling.=

Kind of hard to understand why Hispanic residents are getting the short shrift, even in polling. They are the now the largest population group in the city, or at least neck and neck with “white”, and have the least influence right now. That really needs to change and they need to be properly represented.

Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:42 am
He will win again in 2027. I’ve seen slow yet positive changes on the Westside and Southsides of Chicago.

Comment by Austinman Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:43 am
I think a better way of asking this question is would you support a candidate supported by CTU or MAGA republicans

Comment by Peoples Republic of Oak Park Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:51 am
Johnson only won becuase Vallas was a closet MAGA. Depends on runs aganist him.

Comment by GoneFishing Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:55 am
You would think that progressives would see that Democratic voters are no longer drinking their Koolaid, just ask Reps Bush and Bowman. Doubling down by protesting against Kamala Harris (and indirectly helping Trump) is not going to help them with regular voters.

Comment by Laura Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 10:28 am
If this was a phone IM text poll, I received took it. I received one or two during Vallas primary, I not surprised with the results

Comment by Annon3 Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 11:19 am
- GoneFishing - Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 9:55 am:

Johnson only won becuase Vallas was a closet MAGA. Depends on runs aganist him.

Johnson won because of the way the process is set up (and some excellent work by CTU to get their folks out to vote). After the February election, somewhere between 70% and 80% of the candidates’ others voted for were gone. And while I understand that elections have consequences - and it was embarrassing that you had less that 565K actually show up and vote - the reality is, the guy that 21% of the city voted for the first time is the guy who’s in office. How about we fix the problem and truly get a process set up where the winner is declared the first time? I don’t care if it’s Johnson, Vallas, Lightfoot, the Cookie Monster - when the polls close, the person who has the most votes wins. Instead, we get a guaranteed runoff every year, starting with the first go around with at least 10-12 people who decide they just have to keep their hat in the ring.

Comment by Just a guy Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 3:47 pm
==Depends on runs against him.==

That’ll be Mendoza.

She’s the only state level politician criticizing his policies with nothing currently to gain. Almost like she’s laying an early foundation.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Aug 20, 24 @ 3:48 pm