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* March, 2017…
But ShotSpotter chief executive Ralph Clark said some of the cities that have signed up have seen a 35% year-on-year drop in gunfire. […]
“The biggest lever in reducing gun violence is to de-normalise it, and people are now seeing the police respond to these incidents, and they can see that the police are serving and protecting their communities.”
* 2018…
The company’s newly successful business model is built on an updated version of the broken-windows theory of policing: Pay attention to the “minor” problems facing a community, and you might prevent some of the bigger problems from happening.
[Debunked]
* 2019…
The California-based company, which has contracts with dozens of cities across the country, does not guarantee its technology will reduce gun violence, but does bill its service as a crime-fighting tool that enhances safety for officers and aids in police investigations by facilitating a rapid response to shooting incidents that might not otherwise be reported to authorities.
* 2020…
ShotSpotter (NASDAQ: SSTI) is a leader in precision policing solutions that enable law enforcement officials to more effectively respond to, investigate and deter crime. The company’s products are trusted by more than 100 U.S. cities to help make their communities safer. The platform includes its flagship product, ShotSpotter Respond™, the leading gunshot detection, location and forensic system, and ShotSpotter Connect™, patrol management software to dynamically direct patrol resources to areas of greatest risk and more effectively deter crime.
* 2021…
When Chicago’s Inspector General investigated, they found that in only 9% of ShotSpotter alerts was there any physical evidence of a gunshot. […]
But critics say that methodology has a fundamental flaw. If the police are unsure whether a gunshot has been fired, they are not going to tell the company it was wrong.
In other words, say critics, the company has been counting “don’t knows”, ‘”maybes”, and “probablys” as “got it rights”.
* 2021…
In May, the MacArthur Justice Center released a study that found most ShotSpotter alerts turn up no evidence of gunfire or any gun-related crime but instead send police on thousands of unfounded and high-intensity deployments, which are focused almost exclusively in Black and Brown communities.
The researchers found that 89% of ShotSpotter deployments in Chicago turned up no gun-related crime and 86% led to no report of any crime at all.
* 2021…
“The data reflects that there’s a very low yield for the technology that really begs the question of whether a cost benefit analysis has been done,” former Inspector General Joseph Ferguson said in an October budget hearing when asked about the report. “There are bad actors who are caught because of a ShotSpotter alert. But are enough of them caught to offset the harms that come from aggressive policing from false positives?”
* 2021…
But on Friday, CPD’s Deputy Chief Larry Snelling urged City Council members to view the glass as half full, rather than half empty.
“We can say that 85 [or] 90% of the time, the shot detection system doesn’t render any information. What we need to look at is the 10% of the time that it does,” Snelling told committee members.
“That 10% of the time could be the difference between the officers arriving on the scene applying a tourniquet … to stop a victim from bleeding out or getting an ambulance there a lot quicker to get these victims to the hospital.”
* 2021…
One study published in April in the peer-reviewed Journal of Urban Health examined ShotSpotter in 68 large, metropolitan counties from 1999 to 2016, the largest review to date. It found that the technology didn’t reduce gun violence or increase community safety.
“The evidence that we’ve produced suggests that the technology does not reduce firearm violence in the long-term, and the implementation of the technology does not lead to increased murder or weapons-related arrests,” said lead author Mitch Doucette.
* 2022…
On its website, ShotSpotter regularly posts examples of places where it says the technology has succeeded. One example is in Chicago, where shootings are down 20% according to an ABC article from October, 2022.
* 2023…
In Chicago, barely a tenth of non-fatal shootings result in an arrest. […]
Another study published in November, by Michael Topper and Toshio Ferrazares, PhD students at the University of California, Santa Barbara, looking at Chicago, found that after the roll-out of Shotspotter the police responded to 9/11 calls two minutes slower than before, and in the case of domestic-violence calls made fewer arrests.
Ralph Clark, the CEO of SoundThinking, says people who think the tool is directly able to prevent violent crime are “singularly misinformed”.
* Yesterday…
ShotSpotter is set to go dark at midnight Sunday night in Chicago. Mayor Brandon Johnson is searching for an alternative gunfire detection system. On Sunday, the city announced that it is now accepting recommendations.
Despite the fight to keep ShotSpotter in Chicago, the service will be decommissioned at 12:01 a.m. Monday. The mayor said the goal is to explore better options and save more lives. […]
Ald. Silvana Tabares (23rd) did not mince words in a statement about the situation on Sunday.
“Starting tonight, every gunshot victim left bleeding in the streets of our city will be a worthy sacrifice in the eyes of the mayor for his radical agenda,” Tabares said.
* Also yesterday…
Imagine having over 200 house fires in a weekend and then blaming the smoke detectors for not preventing the fires, even if owners’ lives were saved.
Sounds stupid right? Yet that is exactly what the radical political know-it-alls want to do to the “Black & Brown” folks they…
— Ald. Raymond Lopez (@RaymondALopez) September 22, 2024
2003…
As [Chicago] officials contemplate fines for building owners with excessive numbers of false fire alarms, a Tribune analysis of nearly 1 million calls shows firefighters responded to about five false alarms for each real structure fire.
Those false alarms, which averaged about 24,000 a year citywide in the five years studied, put firefighters and the public at risk by needlessly placing heavy, expensive equipment on the streets while wasting fuel, snarling traffic and conditioning building occupants and firefighters into believing that when an alarm goes off it is likely false. […]
Chicago collected more than $2 million last year in fines from businesses that had more than five false burglar alarm calls during the year. Building owners are charged up to $200 per false burglar alarm call.
* After many spin revisions over the years, the question in Chicago has essentially boiled down to possibly/probably saving lives of at least some shooting victims vs. over-extending already constrained police resources at the expense of 911 response times…
Recent data points:
From Jan. 1 — Aug. 31
29,829 ShotSpotter alerts, 73% of which did NOT have a 911 caller present
Aid rendered to 143 victims located following a ShotSpotter alert
29,000+ shell casings recovered
470 firearms recovered
451 arrests made
(Source: CPD)
— Courtney Spinelli (@CourtSpinelliTV) September 22, 2024
Of the 143, about 95%, or 136 had a 911 caller
— Courtney Spinelli (@CourtSpinelliTV) September 23, 2024
So, that means seven victims rendered aid had no 911 call and we don’t know how badly injured any of those seven were.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 8:30 am
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They simply don’t want the cops showing up in their communities. That’s the bottom line. To work against something that could potentially help someone is just absurd to me.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 8:51 am
It kind of shows that spending all that money on so few people seems kinda silly.
Speaking of which, the funniest and most over-looked aspect of all of this was that ShotSpotter was willing to cut their price in HALF just on the threat of leaving. Not actually going even. Seems like we don’t have very good negotiators working for us at city hall. /s
Comment by 33rd Ward Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 8:55 am
The Mayor does not want Shotspotter, but he plans to issue an RFI for some gunshot detection system. So, the City needs a gunshot detection system, but we turned off the one we have without any backup. Proponent or opponent of Shotspotter, unless you secretly love incompetence and being lied to, I don’t see how you can be happy with Mayor Johnson’s actions.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 8:58 am
I think the thing that strikes me is the fact that few people call 911
If that system worked you probably would not need a shot spotter
Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:03 am
==the fact that few people call 911==
Please cite your source for this “fact”
Comment by Stephanie Kollmann Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:06 am
Whatever the merits of the system itself, the 33-14 council vote to retain ShotSpotter over the mayor’s objections is another indicator of just how weak the 5th Floor has become. No chance that 33 Alders defy the administration if they are strong.
Comment by low level Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:07 am
For someone’s who’s a former classroom teacher he’s done a pretty poor job of ’splainin’ his argument to the city and the aldermen.
It’s my way or the highway just ain’t gonna cut it with adults.
Now he’s got a classroom management problem.
Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:15 am
- To work against something that could potentially help someone is just absurd to me. -
Are you under the impression this is a free service? It’s a waste of money, rarely works, and it’s causing slower response times.
That money could be better spent elsewhere.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:22 am
He said he was going to do this and Chicago voted for him. Progressives could have rallied around Chuy who I’m sure would have been a more competent mayor, but instead decided to choose someone who clearly is in over his head.
Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:22 am
== It’s a waste of money, rarely works==
it’s such a waste of money that Mayor Photo Op extended the contrac to make sure it was operable during the Democratic National Convention. Typical progressive hypocrisy.
Comment by Big Bill Thompson Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:36 am
“After many spin revisions over the years, the question in Chicago has essentially boiled down to possibly/probably saving lives of at least some shooting victims vs. over-extending already constrained police resources at the expense of 911 response times…”
Exactly the point. After all the studies, I haven’t seen good data on the cost effectiveness of the program, comparing the benefits against the costs — including the other activities the police would have been performing.
Comment by Keyrock Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:38 am
Regarding the cost benefit argument, I find it ironic that a lot of people against Shotspotter are the same ones that say if a program costs millions of dollars but saves one life it’s worth it.
Comment by BigLou Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:45 am
Re: Courtney Spinelli aka The CPD Data Stenographer
https://southsideweekly.com/chicago-police-stats-shotspotter-holes-johnson-ordinance/
As a side note, one of the biggest areas of noncompliance in the consent decree is CPD’s data collection and processing issues, which the Justice Department investigation, the Monitor, and the IG all have hammered the department for repeatedly. Yet that doesn’t stop the vast majority of the mainstream media from parroting whatever the department says.
Comment by Google Is Your Friend Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:46 am
==Are you under the impression this is a free service? ==
Um, no. I know it costs money genius.
==It’s a waste of money==
Says you.
==rarely works==
If it saves any lives it’s worth it.
==That money could be better spent elsewhere.==
Then tell us where genius. Got a better plan? I’m sure everyone is all ears.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:55 am
I’ve done a couple “ride-alongs” with CPD over the years. One of the surprising things to watch was the number of false alarms the officers were sent to by their dispatch: calls to 911 about a suspicious vehicle idling in an alley, a fist fight on a street corner, burglar alarms set off at businesses, etc. The majority of the calls turned up nothing by the time the patrol car got to the location.
Cops get sent to supposed incidents all the time only to find nothing happening. Not saying that justifies the Shot Spotter contract — it seems awfully expensive — just offering some context.
Comment by TNR Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:56 am
Great summary of all the history Rich.
I just don’t see why the Mayor is picking this fight with a bunch of City Council members who are usually his allies. He’s got to get 26 votes on a budget by end of the year and he’s going to spend fall feuding with 33 of them over this contract?
Seems like a counterproductive distraction when he could just start the RFI/RFP and extend the thing at the cut rate they were offered last week until that tech survey process is done and avoid another floor fight at City Council.
Comment by ChicagoBars Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 10:22 am
===They simply don’t want the cops showing up in their communities.
Who is they? Are they the same people who call 911 the vast majority of time there are actual incidents?
There’s no evidence that Shot Spotter makes anyone safer. The notion that if it saves lives (of which there is no real evidence) we should pay for it assumes that there are not other strategies where the money could be spent. We haven’t been made safer by an obsession on quick response time–maybe it’s time to focus on actual community policing instead.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 10:25 am
Rich does a fantastic job of connecting the dots here, and some people still refuse to see the picture.
ShotSpotter reminds me of:
Project DARE. Taxpayers dumped millions and millions into DARE because it was supposed to keep kids off drugs. Incontrovertable research found that its only measurable benefit was to make people feel better about police.
“Radical Chic and Mau-Mauing the Flak Catchers.” The seminal essays by Tom Wolfe describe in vivid detail how billions were misspent in the War on Poverty because people were fixated on “Vibes” instead of outcomes. The “vibe” is Tough on Crime now, and the Celebrities are The Police instead of The Black Panthers, but the outcome is the same.
School Resource Officers. We all saw what happened in Uvalde, just as we all saw what happened to Adam Toledo. The human mind is incredibly clever at telling us to disbelieve what we see with our own eyes when it conflicts with whatever pre-concieved values we have placed our faith in.
Johnson is courageous here, and I am not generally a fan of his decisionmaking. Over the next few years, every shooting death will be blamed on cutting ShotSpotter, even if shootings decline, and even though ShotSpotter has admitted it does not reduce gun violence. He better pray 911 response times decline and he has solid data to back up his choice.
Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 10:27 am
== I find it ironic that a lot of people against Shotspotter are the same ones that say if a program costs millions of dollars but saves one life it’s worth it. ==
Well, that’s the issue. No one can point to evidence that it’s saved even one life.
Comment by Quibbler Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 10:30 am
PS: It’s been pointed out before that “Not to do lists” are generally more useful than “To Do lIsts.” Stop doing things that dont work, and you have a lot more time and resources and space for things that do work.
Government, nonprofits and businesses are well-advised to stop trying to do things that are frankly impossible like “eliminate poverty” or running programs that do not work like “sheltering immigrants in police stations.”
This is especially important for Democrats, who have a tendency to over-promise and under-implement, which erodes public faith in government over time.
Deliver. Measurable. Results.
Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 10:36 am
===the fact that few people call 911===
Tell me that you didn’t read the post without telling me.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:03 am
- Then tell us where genius. Got a better plan? -
Such a mature response.
For starters, CPD could stop relying on traffic stops and ineffective technology and actually get to know the neighborhoods they’re policing. If they manage to build back some trust and start solving crimes more people might call 911 and cooperate.
You know, actual police work.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:09 am
=== For starters, CPD could stop relying on traffic stops and ineffective technology and actually get to know the neighborhoods they’re policing. ===
I have no confidence that will ever happen no matter who is running the Mayor’s office or CPD.
Comment by Barrister's Lectern Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:15 am
If the mayor occasionally embraced pragmatism instead of doubling down on goofy progressive word salads, he might accept the lowered ShotSpotter price and bring some of the 33 aldermen back into the fold while searching for better technology. If the search turned up no better option — and he could drag this out for a year or more — then he could continue with ShotSpotter at the reduced rate while better technology is developed.
Comment by pragmatist Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:38 am
I’m no fan of Johnson but I need to give him credit on this one. He ran for office proposing to do this, he got elected by the people, and now he’s following through. As the saying goes, elections have consequences.
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:49 am
Maybe we should buy the older versions of it. You know, back when the company claimed it lowered violence by 35% year to year. That one seems better than ours.
Comment by SWSider Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:50 am
Johnson made only one concrete campaign pledge on policing, as far as I’m aware. Expecting him to further delay accomplishing it, after almost a year and a half of delays to date, doesn’t seem all that pragmatic to me.
Comment by Stephanie Kollmann Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:52 am
Lotta people talking about how “they” don’t call the police or “they” don’t want cops in “their” neighborhood. Did my google cache grab a web archive from 1965?
Comment by Swsider Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:53 am
Companies pushing all their ™ products and services with an eye on their stock price and willing to deep discount might not have the best interests of taxpayers first and foremost on their $$$ minds.
Comment by mrp Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 11:56 am
The system was less reliable than flipping a coin. We already knew where the hotspots for shootings are. You could just spend the same money, putting more patrols in those areas and funding the de-escalation teams, and save many more lives. Shotspotter was a high tech grift version of the Simpson’s anti polar bear rock.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:07 pm
an extension of Shotspotter through 9/22 leading to an RFI–>RFP pipeline is not really a cancellation; it’s just a change in company
an ideological promise is not kept; this is like drinking pepsi during lent when you’ve given up coke
Comment by Chicago Voter Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:12 pm
First, it seems like $10 million would be better spent encouraging people to call 311 unless it is an actual emergency, and educating people on what an “actual emergency” is.
Second, IDK why IDPH stopped publishing data on Ambulance response times after 2019, but I would love to see more.
https://dph.illinois.gov/topics-services/emergency-preparedness-response/ems/prehospital-data-program/emsresponsetimes.html
Comment by Juvenal Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:21 pm
==more people might call 911 and cooperate==
How about they just do the right thing and cooperate. There is absolutely no excuse for not cooperating with the police. You argue out of one side of your mouth that police should “work on solving crime” and then out of the other side of your mouth that people don’t want to cooperate. Guess what? You can’t solve crimes if people don’t cooperate if they know something.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:22 pm
If it is so bad, why did the Mayor say he was canceling in February and then decide to keep it through the DNC, Lollapalooza, NASCAR etc? The contract ended in February.
The mayor had 8 months since that time in February to go to an RFI and find what he’s looking for to replace Shot Spotter. He’s had 8 months did he just learn at City Council on Wednesday that it was turning off Sunday?
Yesterday he told the press when asked, how long until somehting new comes in, his reply was until we get it right.
What the heck does that even mean? That’s not an RFP or RFI that’s let me see how long it takes one of my tech friends to get up and running before I give them the job.
Comment by Frida's boss Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:34 pm
- There is absolutely no excuse for not cooperating with the police. -
Say that when you’re facing retaliation and the police don’t protect your identity.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:41 pm
Then stop complaining about crimes not being solved. You don’t want to use technology. You don’t want to use cooperating citizens. You just want to whine.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:47 pm
=== how long it takes one of my tech friends to get up and running===
Seems like a stretch
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:53 pm
How would a $2 billion (plus, plus, plus) department make it through a single day without people jumping to blame its every failure on residents.
Comment by Stephanie Kollmann Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 12:58 pm
I also have an aversion to using contractors for projects like this and red light or speed cameras. The temptation for corruption is too great when there’s a contractor involved rather than a city- run program. There’s more accountability when something is run by the government workers rather than commercial interests.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 1:09 pm
- You don’t want to use technology. You don’t want to use cooperating citizens. -
I don’t want to pay for technology that does nothing useful 90% of the time. I do want citizens to cooperate, which requires changes to policing.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 1:50 pm
===Seems like a stretch===
OTOH, per the contract, Mayor Johnson could have cancelled Shotspotter on the first day he took office.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 1:50 pm
==I do want citizens to cooperate, which requires changes to policing.==
No, it requires these citizens to do the right thing. Nothing else.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 1:52 pm
shot spotter is voodoo “science.” And I haven’t seen any other gunshot detection system that’s much better.
It’s sadly common in policing for police forces to adopt methods that are simply scientifically unproven — sometimes (when we’re talking about evidence-gathering methods) results in hundreds or thousands of overturned convictions.
Systems like this should really have to pass a serious set of reviews by serious scientists who are not paid by the company before any taxpayer money can be spent on them. They waste time, they waste money, they divert valuable resources from things that DO work. And when they fail spectacularly, we’re all less safe. (And we get to pay out big civil rights settlements.)
Comment by Suburban Mom Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 2:11 pm
==No, it requires these citizens to do the right thing. Nothing else.==
The residents would cooperate but they are afraid. If word gets out to the community that they are working w police to help solve crime, that could be very bad for them and their families. No one wants to be known as snitch. In low crime areas, its a badge of honor to be seen as cooperating w law enforcement. That is mot the case in many of these communities.
Comment by low level Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 2:45 pm
== There is absolutely no excuse for not cooperating with the police. ==
Sonya Massey (among others) might say otherwise. If she were alive.
Comment by Quibbler Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 2:51 pm
Some problems have no easy solution…and who in the World wants to hear that?
Comment by Dotnonymous x Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 3:34 pm
ShotSpotter remains quite profitable…after all.
Comment by Dotnonymous x Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 3:35 pm
ShotSpotter does not work as advertised.
It is a very expensive tool to deploy when it does not work for the intended purpose.
===officers respond more quickly to ShotSpotter alerts than 911 calls===
This suggests that the officers responding know that they are less likely to deal with any difficult work.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 5:24 pm
If a tree falls in the forest, and nobody heard it, did shotspotter report it as a gunshot? The stats say “probably”. Put that money into neighborhood policing in Englewood.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Monday, Sep 23, 24 @ 9:00 pm