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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
Back in 2018, about midway through President-elect Donald Trump’s first term, the Illinois Senate passed a bill that was designed to prevent “the weakening of Illinois environmental and labor regulations in response to a weakening of federal regulations,” according to an Illinois Environmental Council news release.
Some state rules are tied directly to federal rules, so if the feds had slashed regulations, the idea was to prevent that from happening here.
“This bill aims to preserve the status quo of Illinois’ current safeguards as the federal administration continues to roll back environmental standards,” the IEC claimed at the time. “The Illinois Baseline Protection Act would prevent the weakening of any current Illinois standard below the federal standard already in place.”
The bill, SB2213, went nowhere in the House, however.
As I’ve been telling my subscribers for a while now, some Democrats are looking at “Trump-proofing” state statutes going forward, perhaps as early as the November veto session, although no language is currently circulating, so it may have to wait.
Gov. JB Pritzker was asked about this topic last week and said he’d met with his senior staff about the concept. He also “talked to some other governors around the country about the things that they’re looking at doing.” California’s Democratic governor has already called a special legislative session.
Pritzker didn’t say if he’d come up with any ideas, but he listed “health care, reproductive rights” as possible topics.
Illinois’ trade unions, led by Local 150 of the Operating Engineers Union, have been looking at this topic since before the election. While no legislation has yet been drafted, they said they are gaming situations about what would happen if the feds repealed the Davis-Bacon Act, which sets the prevailing wage on government contracts.
They’re also looking at creating a state version of the National Labor Relations Act, which is the basis for all federal labor laws on organizing, collective bargaining and the right to strike. Some businesses, including Elon Musk’s Tesla, have challenged the constitutionality of the act.
I asked House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch, D-Hillside, for comment on what might happen in the near future.
“This week has proven that the work we’ve done in Illinois matters more than ever, and I’m grateful that we’ve taken steps to safeguard the rights and values that are now at extreme risk in many surrounding states. We’ll be heading into this veto session with a renewed determination to ensure our fundamental freedoms remain protected.”
But Illinois reality is also starting to intrude.
The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget published its mandated five-year budget projection late last month, and it was bad news for the state, to the tune of a projected $3.16 billion deficit in the coming fiscal year, which begins July 1.
“The ability to fund new programs will be severely limited,” the budget office warned.
A caveat: The spending and most of the revenue projections are made using current laws and past trends. The economy can change, and laws and practices can be changed.
The budget office also issued a reminder of something we all learned during the budget impasse years ago: “(S)pending reductions cannot be implemented broadly across-the-board. Areas such as debt service on state general obligation bonds, pension payments, Medicaid, and areas that are covered by consent decrees reflect approximately 40% of the State’s General Funds spending. Education spending — primarily base school support (e.g. Evidence Based Funding and transportation reimbursements), state university operations, and need-based assistance — encompass another 24% of the budget.”
That would mean 16% cuts to what can be reduced, without taking other action.
Trump’s much-improved state election results here (halving his loss margin from his last two races) do not create the sort of political environment you want when facing a big deficit next fiscal year — especially if you’re a governor with his eyes on the White House.
Despite the fact that Illinois state and local Democrats appear to have held on to most every office they had, their earlier exuberance contrasted poorly with that final Trump number. And that can put the fear into legislators. Fearful legislators may not want to stick their necks out for a tax hike.
Pritzker himself downplayed his own budget office’s projection by saying the annual forecast has “been wrong every year.”
Yes, we have seen some wild projections. But the crazy pandemic-era fiscal swings have mostly ended, making projections a bit easier.
Pritzker told reporters that his administration had “defeated” dire predictions every year and pledged to introduce and pass a balanced budget next year.
* Related…
* Tribune | Labor leaders, Illinois officials fear workers’ rights at risk under Trump, but vow to keep fighting: In an interview Wednesday, Raoul pointed to efforts that a Trump Labor Department might take to classify gig workers, such as delivery drivers for Uber or Doordash, as independent contractors, which would enable companies to avoid paying them overtime and giving them other benefits they would be entitled to if classified as employees. “We’ve dealt with a Trump Department of Labor in the past that has been less friendly in their interpretation to protecting workers from misclassification,” he said.
* Sun-Times | Officials aim to bolster Illinois protections as trans Midwesterners consider moving before 2nd Trump term: One gap the coalition identified is medical data privacy and the use of geolocators to track people who visit health care facilities, which [Rep. Kelly Cassidy] said she’s confident will be fixed before the fall legislative session ends. “There’s a hole in that [legislative] shield, and that’s data privacy, so that’s the top priority,” Cassidy said.
* WBEZ | How would a second Trump term affect the money flowing into Illinois?: Federal funding is the state of Illinois’ largest source of revenue. And the city of Chicago depends on it for various projects, including the current Red Line Extension and O’Hare Modernization. But President-Elect Donald Trump has a fraught relationship with the state’s prominent politicians, and has threatened to withhold federal funding from political opposition. How could a second Trump term affect the money that Illinois and Chicago receive from the federal government, and will projects like these stall during the next four years?
* Fox 32 | Chicago, Illinois leaders prepare for fight over Trump’s immigration plans: Last week, a defiant Governor JB Pritzker vowed to sue the federal government if it decided to hold up federal public safety funding as punishment for not cooperating, saying he would protect the state’s status as a safe haven. “You come for my people, you come through me,” Pritzker said on Thursday. But House Republican leader Tony McCombie says undocumented immigrants are costing the state billions, and wants Pritzker to rethink his opposition.
* Tribune | Democrats have Donald Trump’s second term in mind heading into Illinois legislature’s fall session: House Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch said last week that the session will be an opportunity to continue discussions on certain proposals but that larger issues would need more time to get settled. As for the effect Trump’s administration may have in coming years, the Hillside Democrat acknowledged Illinois has made good strides in recent years with certain laws it has put on the books, but that more could be done during the January lame duck session, held before a new legislature is sworn in. “We could call a lame duck session and do some things when it comes to workers’ rights, women’s rights, LGBTQ+ rights, we have an opportunity that we can do some things before Donald Trump takes the oath of office,” Welch said. “We’re going to be a check on Donald Trump. As a state, we have rights. And we did it in his first term and we’ll do it again.”
* WGN | What Will a Second Trump Administration Mean for Illinois?: Congressman Mike Quigley joins WGN-TV Political Report.
* ABC 7 | Chicago leaders prepare for President-elect Trump’s mass deportation plan: The deputy mayor for Immigrant, Migrant and Refugee Rights said Chicago will not be bullied because of its Welcoming City Ordinance. “We are not able to cooperate with ICE to assist in mass deportations; our mayor has made very clear that he will not flinch,” said Beatriz Ponce de Leon, deputy mayor for Immigrant, Migrant and Refugee Rights. “We will continue to maintain our ordinance in place and to comply with that.”
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 8:11 am
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Rich, you were right to point out Illinois $3.16B budget deficit. Given the billions of federal dollars the state received plus the fact that sales tax revenues (inflation) have performed well, it is troubling nonetheless. Add the City of Chicago’s $930M deficit and CPS’ $1B (probably higher after CTU contract) and now a Trump victory that will likely result in Illinois receiving less federal dollars, the overall situation is concerning.
Comment by Teve DeMotte Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 9:02 am
Shouldn’t we expect much less federal money flowing into the state hampering efforts to improve infrastructure and support social programs? Strikes me as highly likely.
Comment by Lincoln Lad Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 9:35 am
-(S)pending reductions cannot be implemented broadly across-the-board-
But, taxes are much, much easier to raise. So, that’s what’s coming . Public finance is about spending and taxation.
Comment by Steve Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 9:53 am
If we want to Trump proof Illinois we need to focus on making it easier and more affordable to move live and work here.
Comment by Nick Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 9:53 am
Have there been any studies on the upcoming tariffs likely impact on sales tax receipts?
Many consumer electronics are about to get a lot more expensive, and I imagine that would dampen sales tax receipts on them.
Comment by ChicagoVinny Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 9:55 am
Perhaps this is the time for government to intelligently examine current spending. What is essential, what is effective. For example, if CPS student numbers are down, can some schools be closed? Perhaps any near term contracts will have to pare down salary increases. There are lots of items that can and should be examined.
Comment by Center Drift Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 10:01 am
===sales tax revenues (inflation) have performed well===
Not this fiscal year.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 10:15 am
How does Illinois “Trump-Proof” itself from our neighboring states? As in 2016, Illinois is an island in the Red Sea of IA, IN, KY, MO, and WI.
Comment by Gravitas Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 10:41 am
**Perhaps any near term contracts will have to pare down salary increases.**
“Contracts” is a pretty important word there.
Comment by JoeMaddon Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 10:45 am
I like the trades’ thinking regarding the Davis-Bacon Act and wish Pritzker were framing his efforts as protecting the working class from negative economic impact. Democrats have got to be crafting a narrative to run on other than identity and reproductive rights.
Comment by Apple Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 11:16 am
Speakin’ of Trump Time what happens if they decide to slow walk the last pile of cash for the very costly SPI multi decade work to undo that damage done by the railroads — there are claims the final payment of $150+ million is ok’d.
And then there are the millions to clean up the Pillsbury plant pollution. BTW these are 2 great examples of how to translate the “deregulation” that the whacks always want and Trump promises.
Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 11:29 am
===How does Illinois “Trump-Proof” itself from our neighboring states?===
I suppose building a wall is out of the question
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 12:24 pm
==Pritzker himself downplayed his own budget office’s projection by saying the annual forecast has “been wrong every year.”==
“I’ve been aware of a problem for six years and have done nothing about it” is certainly one way to look at it.
Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 12:38 pm
Almost 45% of Illinoisans voted for President Trump. “Trump-proofing” Illinois from the benefits of his presidency is not reflecting the will of a big chunk of the people of Illinois.
Comment by Penny Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 2:34 pm
I would like to add that federal education money as well as federal transportation money to Illinois could be greatly impacted by Trump winning, further complicating the fiscal climate in Illinois.
Comment by Teve DeMotte Tuesday, Nov 12, 24 @ 2:41 pm