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* Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability…
Incorporating November’s gains into the total, General Funds receipts through the first five months of FY 2025 are now down $291 million [-1.5%] as compared to receipt totals through November of FY 2024. As discussed last month, this overall decline includes the $633 million in one-time federal dollars from FY 2024 that will not repeat in FY 2025. Excluding these one-time federal dollars from the equation, “base” General Funds receipts are now $342 million or 1.8% above last year’s levels.
Even after two back-to-back months of declining receipts, the Personal Income Tax continues to have the highest revenue growth of any revenue source thus far in FY 2025. Through November, gross receipts are $658 million higher than last year for a growth rate of +6.4%. On a net basis, when subtracting out distributions to the Income Tax Refund Fund and the Local Government Distributive Fund, the growth descends to $559 million.
Corporate Income Tax receipts continue to be well behind last year’s pace. Through the first five months of the fiscal year, gross receipts are now $316 million behind last year’s levels, a decline of -15.3%. On a net basis, these receipts are $254 million lower. While, historically, over 70% of Corporate Income Tax revenues are still to be collected over the remainder of the fiscal year, much improvement is needed during these final seven months to reach budgetary projections for this revenue source.
After posting year-over-year declines in the first three months of the fiscal year, Sales Tax receipts have been slightly higher the last two months. Still, revenues from this source remain a disappointing $110 million behind last year’s pace for a year-to-date decline of -2.2%. On a net basis, when accounting for fewer distributions to certain transportation funds this fiscal year, the year-to-date difference is nearly flat with a slight decline of -$8 million or -0.2%. It is hopeful that recent reports of strong post-Thanksgiving sales will result in a boost to Sales Tax receipts in December to help eat away at this fiscal year deficit.
November’s lower numbers from All Other State Sources reduces this category’s cumulative gain down to $198 million. However, this difference is still a welcomed 14.6% above last year’s levels through the first five months of the fiscal year. Despite a slower November, Interest on State Funds & Investments continues to be well above last year’s pace by $82 million. Other sources in this category with strong gains through November include Insurance Taxes [+$82 million]; Other Sources [+$25 million]; and Public Utility Taxes [+$12 million]. These revenue lines have offset modest year-to-date declines from the Corporate Franchise Tax [-$9 million]; the Cigarette Tax [-$5 million]; the Estate Tax [-$5 million]; and the Liquor Tax [-$1 million].
With this month’s $3 million decline in Transfers In, the FY 2025 total through November is now $321 million behind last year’s pace. Much of this falloff is because the Income Tax Refund Fund Transfer this fiscal year was $302 million lower than in FY 2024. Lower year-to-date totals from Lottery Transfers [-$35 million] and Other Transfers [-$33 million] have contributed to this falloff. Offsetting a portion of these declines are $12 million in additional revenues from casino-related Gaming Transfers, $1 million more from Cannabis Transfers; and $36 million in new revenues from the Sports Wagering Transfer.
After trailing last year’s levels for much of the fiscal year, November’s strong month increased Federal Sources’ year-to-date “base” total to $1.709 billion, which is $168 million higher than last year’s five-month comparable total. However, if incorporating the $633 million in one-time revenues received in October 2023 into the equation, the Federal Sources total would be $465 million below last year’s levels with seven months remaining in the fiscal year.
* Part of the problem is lack of job growth…
Illinois’ total nonfarm employment grew by nearly 40,000 jobs over the past year, increasing from 6.165 million to 6.205 million. This represents a growth rate of 0.6%, which lags behind the 1.3% growth rate observed nationwide. […]
A comparison of employment growth since before the COVID-19 pandemic reveals a similar pattern to more recent trends. Illinois has grown more slowly than the nation as a whole, with individual metro areas showing varying levels of growth. Since October 2019, U.S. employment has increased by 4.9%, while Illinois has grown by just 0.5%, adding approximately 28,700 jobs. Both Illinois and the U.S. experienced sharp declines in employment in 2020, followed by strong recoveries in 2021 and 2022. However, a noticeable slowdown in job growth emerged in 2023 and into 2024. While Illinois mirrored the national pattern, its initial declines in 2020 were steeper (-6.8% vs. -5.9%), and its subsequent rebound has been consistently weaker.
posted by Isabel Miller
Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 12:14 pm
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Very disappointing number.
Comment by Back to the Future Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 1:48 pm
October 2019, not October 2017, so no blaming Bruce.
Comment by City Zen Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 2:07 pm
If it is not Bruce R’s fault then who’s fault is it?
Comment by Back to the Future Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 2:27 pm
=October 2019, not October 2017, so no blaming Bruce.=
Meh, it is still Rauner’s fault, we were still paying off his debt from the budget impasse.
See what I did there…hehe.
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 2:37 pm
On a serious note…these numbers are not great at all. It is still growth, but it needs to be much better.
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 2:38 pm
Growth is good. More growth is better. Keep on improving, Illinois….
Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Friday, Dec 6, 24 @ 2:49 pm