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The horse race

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Illinois

* Stories like these might be fun, but they are far from complete…

At least five senators said Monday they were already lobbying their fellow Democrats for the job and outlined their credentials. All said they would work to repair the feud between House Speaker Michael Madigan (D-Chicago) and Gov. Rod Blagojevich, who has drawn strength from Jones’ unwavering support.

Sen. James Clayborne (D-Belleville) said he wants to build a working relationship with the governor and Madigan. […]

Sen. John Cullerton (D-Chicago) said he has picked up support from some of his colleagues throughout the state as he began reaching out. “It looks very good,” Cullerton said. But he added it is going to take a while for any of the candidates to get to the 30 votes needed to become president. […]

Sen. Terry Link (D-Waukegan) called Jones a “unifier” in the Senate Democratic caucus but said he is seeking support from his fellow Democrats, saying he has backing from lawmakers in the suburbs, Chicago and Downstate. […]

Sen. Jeff Schoenberg (D-Evanston) said he is reaching out to colleagues seeking support for the presidency. […]

“I can work with Speaker Madigan,” said [Sen. Rickey Hendon], a Jones loyalist. He added the Senate needs to “find a way to work with the speaker without throwing the governor under the bus.”

It’s way early, and all of these candidates have their own drawbacks. Plus, there are plenty of others out there working the phones and attempting to position themselves.

* Redfield is right…

“I suspect that’s going to be a free-for-all,” said University of Illinois at Springfield political science professor Kent Redfield.

* So is Congresscritter Jackson…

“I’m sure Speaker Madigan has an interest in who the next senate president is going to be as well, which can only make for big fireworks coming out of Springfield,” said Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. (D-IL).

* As is Silverstein…

State Sen. Mike Jacobs, D-East Moline, said he’s already received calls from several contenders seeking his support. Two potential candidates already plan to go to a fundraiser for Jacobs this week.

“My phone has been ringing off the hook,” Jacobs said.

[Sen. Ira Silverstein] agreed that various lawmakers’ were already jockeying behind the scenes for support, but that no clear consensus had yet formed.

“I think things are going to get kind of intense,” Silverstein said.

* Like Silverstein, there will be plenty of dark horse candidates…

Sen. Don Harmon of Oak Park isn’t in Jones’ leadership team, but he has led some high-profile pieces of legislation, including ethics reforms and pension obligation bonds.

There will also be a bunch of stalking horses. This thing is gonna get complicated, campers.

* Related…

* Illinois Senate President Jones retiring

* Emil Jones Says He’ll Retire as Senate President

* Hendon: Jones is Healthy, Sharp

* Senate president, Blago ally Jones retiring this fall

* Illinois Senate president steps down

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 9:54 am

Comments

Lets not forget Demuzio, who appears to be trying to put together a downstate coalition to push for a “downstate” president. Do not have a feel yet for who the actual canidate would be. But this free-for-all looks headed for a showdown between a chicago/n Il and donwstate canidate when the names are paired down.

hendon seems to be spending a lot of time trying to stress both his credential as a jones supporter and his ability to get along with Madigan. Unfortunetly I think Hendon will be viewed as just a continuation of the feud and not a reconciller. Hendons decision to side so strongly with Jones may be his donwfall in his bid for majority leader.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:06 am
When is Halvorson’s senater term up? If she doesn’t win the congressional seat does she become the favorite for Senate President?

Comment by wndycty Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:08 am
whoops typo above I meant to say “senate” not “senater” LOL

Comment by wndycty Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:09 am
I’ll take any of the aforementioned over Hendon. Ideally someone with a proven track record of independence who’s not been the subject of a Tribune investigative piece.

Comment by The Doc Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:13 am
I like Cullerton. He has a proven track record, served on leadership and is more or less liked by all. Independent yet experienced. I think this is the sorta dark horse we can and should get behind.

Comment by thegreatmags Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:17 am
Cullerton suffers form the same problem of concern that he is a cook county legislature who is not aware or able to adress the problesm of the state which actully continues past I-80.

Meeks recent education push is a great example of this cook county blinder problem. Education funding disparity exists through rural IL, yet he focuses on the disparity in chicago schools.

It would be nice to see a senate president from downstate.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:22 am
Would it be possible for someone who has a greater grasp of internal state politics than I to describe how these senators might go about gaining the votes they need to win the presidency? What are the bargaining chips? How do they navigate the good and poor relationships among the membership? What can they promise? How do the caucuses fit in?

With so many names mentioned and with experts indicating the race is wide open, it seems building a winning coalition will require much maneuvering. Can anyone describe this process?

Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:22 am
St. Sen. Halvorson can run for re-election, in 2010. She’s probably running for Congress because she’s in the middle of a four-year term. She can run for Congress without giving up her senate seat.

Comment by PhilCollins Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:23 am
Yea Ghost, Peace in the middle east would be wonderful as well, but I’m not holding my breath. Deanna Demuzio? Get serious.

Comment by Jaded Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:35 am
Its basically a bit like caucassing, or coalition building or selecting a pope. Bunch of names go up, vote occurs, votes get split between all the names. People then meet behind the scene offering deals for someone to pull their name out and ad their supporters to somone else in exchange for position on Rules (or whatever) etc until you get down to the 2 strongest names. Then you keep voting and negotiating until one of the two finalists has 30 votes in the Senate (republicans get to play too). On rare occasion you get somone who ends up being the easy pick after a shakedown round. I would not look for this to be such an occasion.

Good stuff with the republicans getting to weigh in and keep the selection process exciting.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:39 am
Jaded just to be clear, I am not tendering that Demuzio would be the majority leader canidate, I am commenting that she is trying to gather the donwstate folks to put forth a show of support for a single canidate to be named later. I would not so readily dismiss her influence.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:42 am
Is the process subject to outside influences such as Blago, Madigan, Daley? Or would their active support be resented and couterproductive?

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:42 am
Can someone remind me of some of the classic quotes from Rickey Hendon? I hope this klassy (to borrow from my children) legislator doesn’t get the post.

Comment by James the Intolerant Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:46 am
Word, there is nothing prohibiting their active support, but I would gamble they will go for more subtle infleunce in the deal making side of the process. And you can bet Blago, Madigan and Daley will have a hand in it.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:47 am
===she is trying to gather the donwstate folks to put forth a show of support for a single canidate to be named later===

She might be talking about it, but she ain’t leading it.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:49 am
way to soon to speculate…

Comment by Anonymous45 Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 10:54 am
=== She might be talking about it, but she ain’t leading it.==

I really need to subscribe.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:01 am
Hendon and Link are both tainted. Hendon is known for pay to play politics such as the State Board of Education grants and his famous $1billion “earmarks” in the gaming bill for his friends in select zipcodes. Link is too much like Jones, and 2 of his people were just indicted.

Claybourne doesn’t have the work ethic for the job. Harmon seems to receive credit for things he doesn’t really work on (i.e. ethics bill was completely the product of the House) and I question his motives.

My money is on Schoenberg or Cullerton. Both have the brains, personal skills, and ethics to get the job done and reunite the Senate and House.

In a perfect world the members would pick Jackie Collins, but I don’t know if she even wants that job.

Comment by Rich Miller for Senate President!! Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:18 am
===My money is on Schoenberg or Cullerton===

Your favorite Senator is not necessarily the one who will win. Cullerton has a real shot. Not so sure about Jeff, but we’ll see.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:21 am
RM4SP:

“Harmon seems to receive credit for things he doesn’t really work on (i.e. ethics bill was completely the product of the House) and I question his motives.”

What motives are you questioning? Please clarify. He has been a thoughtful legislator and has the brains and acumen to pull it off so I am curious about your statement.

Comment by Joe in the Know Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:24 am
Cullerton is ny very early pick…

Comment by Anonymous45 Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:25 am
sorry typo: my

Comment by Anonymous45 Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:26 am
If you’re not sure about Schoenberg, then does Harmon have any real chance? It would seem to me that they’re trying to make the same appeal - smart, indepdendent-minded suburban legislator not currently in leadership. Either they’re both viable or neither one is viable.

Comment by The Unlicensed Hand Surgeon Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:30 am
===Either they’re both viable or neither one is viable.===

Different skill sets. So, that statement is not at all true.

Beyond that, I’m not gonna expound for free.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:35 am
Fair enough, but I think you’d have to agree that there’s less daylight between Harmon and Schoenburg than there is between, say, Hendon and Clayborne.

Comment by The Unlicensed Hand Surgeon Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 11:56 am
===less daylight between Harmon and Schoenburg than there is between, say, Hendon and Clayborne.===

LOL. Not if you knew them and knew their respective bases.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 12:00 pm
Rich sounds right on about Schoenburg and Harmon…so Rich, who in your opinion has more respect with the GOP across the aisle?

Comment by Anonymous45 Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 12:51 pm
I think it is going to be Halvorsen.
I’ve been pretty unimpressed with the race she’s run in what is usually a GOP District. I suspect that she will be back in the State Senate in January.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 12:56 pm
===I think it is going to be Halvorsen.===

Tough to campaign during her campaign.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 1:01 pm
But the vote itself is not until after the election, right?

She quietly takes names, and when she loses to O, she turns over her cards.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 1:35 pm
interesting scenario skeeter…but is it realistic?

Comment by Anonymous45 Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 2:09 pm
I am thinking maybe Clayborne, most seniority outside of Chicago and ‘burbs, work ethic I don’t know about but his tenacity in committees I have seen him in seems pretty astute– if they go for a downstate candidate. I have heard Cullerton’s name bandied about for a few years as a successor to EJ, too. It will be instructive to watch how this plays out.

Comment by Captain Flume Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 2:32 pm
Schoenberg is working the phones big time. Any lunch plans?

Comment by Niles Township Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 3:18 pm
no need to guess further, Susan Garrett shall be the next majority leader.

Comment by Ghost Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 3:24 pm
I think the breach between Governor Pinnochio and Speaker Machiavelli is irreparable. Anyone whe says they can repair that breach is campaigning on a false premise. I think it’s more important that the breach between the House and Senate leadership will be healed. At least the legislature will be operated on a more rational basis even if the Governor continues his erratic governing behavior.

I don’t really know how the various contenders get along with their various colleagues, which seems to be the key variable. My best guess is that Cullertaon will ultimately prevail as someone who can effectively bridge the gap/put a coalition together among the various Senate factions (Chicago/downstate, reformers and the old guard,etc.)Among all the contenders, Cullerton strikes me as the most personable candidate likely to have cordial relationships with colleagues - friend and foe alike.

Since I’m from Evanston, I’m supporting Jeff Schoenberg,whom I’ve known casually for many years. Senator Schoenberg is a policy wonk, and Senator Cullerton strikes me as more of a people person. I like them both. I’ve had a nodding acquaintance with Senator Cullerton for many years too.

Regardless of who prevails, I view the departure of Godfather Jones as a win-win for everybody, except Governor A.

I left Springfield last week very disheartened because of the general perception that we would be stalemated unitl the next election. Now I definitely believe that things will improve somewhat, even though it’s not going to be a bed of roses. Our fiscal situation may be even worse next year. But I have some expection that the various personalities migh work better together, now that the Great Enabler will be leaving the scene.

Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 4:09 pm
If there is going to be a horse race; shouldn’t there be a Morning Line published in order to handicap and assess the prospects of all eligible contestants at this point?

Absent a published Morning Line, I think that In-Trade; the prediction market(www.intrade.com) might create a market for a small field for this race; if there was enough interest. If someone wanted to use their “Suggest Contract” feature, they might bite; and then they could hire Rich (for a handsome fee) as the in house handicapper; or market maker.

Comment by Doyle Lonnegan Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 4:22 pm
===If there is going to be a horse race; shouldn’t there be a Morning Line published in order to handicap and assess the prospects of all eligible contestants at this point?===

Subscribe. lol

Comment by Fan of the Game Tuesday, Aug 19, 08 @ 4:41 pm
IT almost HAS to be Clayborne. He has the senority and he has played a role in a number of major legislative inititives in recent years which makes him adept to the “art of the deal.” Hendon and Link are part of the tainted culture of the Springfield political process and i believe most of the senate members are looking for a clean break from the past. Cullerton is way too close to the spear of the house and probably Mayor Daley too. Why would the senate members elect a guy who would easily capitulate to Daley or Madigan. Calyborne would be a nice counter-balance to Madigan. he has the intellect, temperment and commands the respect of most statehouse types. And as far as the work ethic comment - PLEASE - the question is can he, or any of the major candidates, rise to the level of expactatin of the job, and he could easily do that as well as any of the other candidates.

Lastly, keep in mind the next senate president will also be charged with the responsibility of ensuring he can keep the majority, and that is only accomplished if he can win senate races. It’s gotta be Clayborne.

Comment by Reality Check Wednesday, Aug 20, 08 @ 12:29 am
One item about Terry Link, whom I don’t know and have never met, suggests that he is not politically qualified to be Senate President. Three paid pertition passers for Link’s organization were just indicted for perjury and petition fraud.

I’m not saying that Link was implicated in the fraud. However, why would an incumbent Senator ,with a base and presuabaly some kind of political organization, need to pay pettiton passers. Obviosly Link has few or no skills as a political organizer, if he has to pay petition passers to qualify for the ballot.

I could probably collect enough petitions for a respected incumbent Senator myself, without breaking a sweat, to get his name on the ballot.So this suggests to me that I would not want Terry Link in charge of Democratic Senate campaigns across the state - he can’t even manage his own local political affairs

Comment by Captain America Wednesday, Aug 20, 08 @ 8:21 am
It is an election year and no one wants to rock the boat. So the next senate president will be an evolutionary one, not a revolutionary one.

It would have been Halvorson if he wasn’t already running. She has to be kicking herself over this because she finally got the opening she wanted. Instead she is wasting her time flaying around with a bunch of Beltway dummies trying to run against Bush in the 11th Congressional District.

She is unavailable. So it will be Cullerton.

Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Aug 20, 08 @ 8:39 am
Reality Check, you don’t really grasp how important Mayor Daley and Speaker Madigan are to the process. You sound as if the senate wants to alienate Daley by picking someone who will keep him in his place. With all due respect, that’s shockingly naive.

Vanilla: The next president of the senate will be chosen by their colleagues after the election, formally that is. The jockeying will take place now, but the selection and election is after November 4th. So the election has little or nothing to do with who is selected.

Comment by Joe in the Know Wednesday, Aug 20, 08 @ 9:30 am