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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
You’ve probably read about the Republican Party’s implosion last week in suburban municipal and township campaigns, particularly in DuPage County.
It’s important to remember these consolidated elections are not always a reliable indication of the future. They’re very low turnout, and in years like this one — when the election was held during a hugely controversial U.S. president’s first 100 days — they can be influenced by the outrage of the moment, particularly when one political party was putting its finger on the scale, as the Democratic Party of Illinois was.
The state party supported 280 local candidates, and it claims 222 of those candidates won, for a 79% success rate. Former state Rep. Jeanne Ives, a member of the Illinois Republican Party’s state central committee, described her party’s losses as a “complete wipeout.”
President Donald Trump’s impact on the contests is undeniable. But a lot of hard work was put in at the state and local levels. The DuPage Democrats won all of their contested township races, much of it due to strong grassroots work and decent candidate recruitment.
But there’s another aspect to this: Vote by mail, particularly the state’s permanent vote by mail program.
Illinoisans have been able to sign up for permanent vote by mail status for about four years now. You fill out a simple form and then your local election authority sends you a ballot before every election.
Former state Rep. Mark Batinick told me before the election that when the statute took effect, 2025 was “the election I feared the most.”
The Republican’s reasoning was simple. This was the first off-year election for permanent vote by mail after years of compiling participants. As noted above, these elections have notoriously low turnout. But Democrats have far more trust in mailed-in ballots than Republicans, so they’re much more likely to sign up for the permanent VBM program.
The most important part of permanent VBM is the ballots are a major reminder to voters that it’s time to vote again. They may tune out the news or the ads, but that official mailer from their county clerk will likely catch their attention. A lot of vote by mail is just regular voters shifting from one voting method to another, but the permanent program adds an important dynamic to that.
In close races, that could be the difference between winning and losing.
“Some Democratic victories will undoubtedly be attributed to Trump backlash,” Batinick said before the election. But that vote by mail system, particularly the permanent VBM program, would still play a big role, he predicted.
And he was right.
For example, on election night, the chief of staff for state Rep. Norma Hernandez, D-Melrose Park, Bobby Hernandez had a slight 14-vote lead over incumbent Addison Township Supervisor Dennis Reboletti.
The Republican Reboletti had a 212-vote lead among early voters and a 206-vote lead among voters who cast their ballots on Election Day itself.
But by that Friday, the Democrat Hernandez had a 775-vote lead among mailed-in ballots. His overall 357-vote overall lead is expected to increase as more mail trickles in.
The reason for the Republican aversion to voting by mail is Trump has long blasted it as a way for Democrats to steal elections. He and party leaders reversed course before the 2024 election. The party did make some gains, but, at least in Illinois, they haven’t yet matched the Democrats’ superiority.
And now Trump has reversed course again, issuing an executive order that in part commands the U.S. attorney general to take “all necessary action” against states that count mailed-in ballots that arrive after federal election days. The U.S. Postal Service being what it is (and service may very well deteriorate even further going forward), that could disenfranchise a whole lot of voters.
A federal district court and an appellate court ruled against a lawsuit originally filed in 2023 by Illinois U.S. Rep. Mike Bost, R- Murphysboro, attempting to stop the count of ballots received after midnight on election days, even if they’re postmarked by Election Day itself (identical to the rules for mailing income tax returns by deadline dates). Bost has since asked the U.S. Supreme Court to step in.
Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul is among several Democratic attorneys general across the country to join a lawsuit against Trump’s executive order. Their main argument: “The President has no constitutional authority to ‘make or alter’ laws governing federal elections.”
* Charts from Uncrewed…
One of the reasons Republicans held onto several of those seats this year was because no Democrats ran against them.
* Also, remember last week when Illinois Republican Party’s state central committeeperson Jeanne Ives said this about the results?…
I also do think that when it comes to anything that deals with education or mental health, people, unfortunately, are just willing to spend whatever it takes, and that’s not the answer, and they just for what they just do. They just vote for these people who vote for, oh, it’s for education, it’s for mental health.
Local issues are very important…
It may not have been the Wheeling Township Board’s stubborn refusal to fund a voter-approved Mental Health Board that cost Republicans the supervisor’s seat and their majority on Tuesday. The swelling blue tide is no longer a new political phenomenon in the suburbs.
But the township’s Republicans certainly didn’t do themselves or their party any favors by repeatedly refusing, even in the face of state law specifically pertaining to them, to fund a voter-approved Mental Health Board at the level voters approved. Now, cultural shift or no, they have felt the sting of openly defying the voters’ will.
Some of the Democrats on the slate that swept into control of the township board were active in support of the 2022 referendum that approved creation of a 708 Mental Health Board to oversee programs to help people with mental health issues, substance use disorders and developmental disabilities. Now, they’re in position not just to levy the full tax but also to move in new directions on other issues.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 8:48 am
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Without Trump, R’s have no turnout. Scary for the Party either way you look at it
Comment by Anthony Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 9:19 am
We see this all the time with the GOP. Voters vote to protect abortion, GOP pols work to do the opposite. Voters vote to allow cannabis, GOP pols work to do the opposite. Minimum wage, social spending, infrastructure, none of it matters. GOP pols consistently work to subvert the will of their voters.
This isn’t some aberration. This is just standard conservative politics.
Comment by Bob Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 9:26 am
There’s nothing Republican elected officials loathe more than the will of the voters.
Comment by VK Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 9:28 am
Republicans simply do not know how to organize.
Comment by JSI Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 9:45 am
Dems also had a good election
in northwest Cook where Democrats now dominate townshop government.
Comment by anon2 Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 9:50 am
anon2 correct It’s a stunning change out there.
Comment by Amalia Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 10:03 am
I love filling out my vote by mail ballot at home on my own time, but I don’t trust Trump or Elon not to meddle with mail delivery. I’ll be handing off my ballots at the secure drop box for the next 4 years.
Comment by ChicagoVinny Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 10:11 am
DuPage County has experienced significant demographic changes. Some of the newer residents of the county continued to vote Democratic after relocating to the suburbs. DuPage is much more diverse than it was twenty years ago.
When Lee Daniels and James “Pate” Philip were the leaders, the Republicans tried to run candidates in as many districts as possible. More than a few of these candidates acted as sacrificial lambs, but caused the Democrats to play safe.
Later, when many Chicago and inner suburban districts were completely uncontested, the Democrats expanded their campaign operations into the suburbs.
Comment by Not so Grand Old Party Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 10:26 am
- Republicans simply do not know how to organize. -
In Illinois they’re too lazy to organize, and now a significant part of their base thinks posting online is an effective political tool.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 10:36 am
As a Wheeling township voter, this one was sweet to watch. No board was as arrogant as the Wheeling Township “Republican Team.”
Comment by Rahm's Parking Meter Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 11:09 am
“When Daniel’s & Philip’s were leaders…”
Republican elected officials were only men and Democratic elected’s were only women. And Republican women were envelope stuffers, in charge of fundraisers or if you were lucky enough “political consultants”.
See Elaine Libowitz, Jane Spirgel and Nancy Philip for historical reference.
Thank goodness for diversity. Glad for the shake up.
Comment by Elm Tree Moderate Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 11:25 am
I wonder if the rout would have been worse if the election had been delayed 1 week.
Comment by Huh? Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 12:03 pm
There is no limited government or conservative case for township government in Illinois in 2025. They were just free stipends for self important politicians who can’t hack it in a real office.
You know what you have when there’s a Republican township official or someone advocating for township government? You have a Democrat.
And in a race between a fake Democrat and a real one, voters often choose the authentic product.
All townships should be dissolved and their de minimus functions transferred their respective counties.
Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 12:12 pm
===You know what you have when there’s a Republican township official or someone advocating for township government? You have a Democrat. ===
Sen. Chesney, perhaps the most far-right member of that chamber, would like a word:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dRq_x_uU53N9K1OWvhVSdmv-ZHhOMNze/view?usp=sharing
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 12:27 pm
Township assessors have a hard enough time finding candidates to run in the first place, which means an elected office has to be contracted out to an unelected professional. A job, by the way, that can mostly be done with drones and never leaving your desk.
Whenever someone defends microtownships they invariably point to the road district. Skipping based gravel roads magically being cheaper than paved and guttered roads, the township has its own functions… that in rural and even village level townships simply don’t do.
A compromise would be to dissolve townships and keep road districts and no one would ever notice.
There is no limited government case for townships and anyone telling you different is a liar.
Comment by John Bambenek Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 12:38 pm
= Not so Grand Old Party - Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 10:26 am:
DuPage County has experienced significant demographic changes. Some of the newer residents of the county continued to vote Democratic after relocating to the suburbs. DuPage is much more diverse than it was twenty years ago.=
That is the single biggest factor in DEMS winning in the collar counties. Few have the courage to say it.
Comment by Mason County Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 12:47 pm
===That is the single biggest factor===
It is a factor, but here are the racial demographics for Milton Township: The racial makeup of the township was 74.23% White, 4.75% African American, 0.31% Native American, 9.66% Asian, 0.02% Pacific Islander, 3.70% from other races, and 7.33% from two or more races. Hispanic or Latino of any race were 9.14% of the population.
===Few have the courage to say it===
lol
You’re such a hero.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 1:04 pm
Mental health funding might not have been the primary reason for the partisan shift in Wheeling Township, but it certainly helped us recruit good Democrats to run for the seats.
Comment by walker Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 1:05 pm
- Few have the courage to say it. -
Heck, I have neighbors who will say what you’re saying in a much less polite way.
Comment by Excitable Boy Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 1:07 pm
==DuPage is much more diverse than it was twenty years ago.=
That is the single biggest factor in DEMS winning in the collar counties. Few have the courage to say it==
Been in DuPage for 6 decades. Is it more diverse than it was? Yes. But it’s a fallacy to assume that because someone is non-white that they are left of center. An example would be Modi supporting Indian immigrants- which is not a small group.
My personal observation is that the left swing of DuPage has been driven by women voters. There are many, many where the husband votes R and the wife now votes D.
Comment by jimbo Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 1:26 pm
It is not courageous. It is reality. Times change.
DuPage is much more diverse now than it was once upon a time. Twenty-five years ago, the county did not have many minority residents.
I remember my elderly aunt be called over and over again to serve as a Democrat Judge of Election because almost all of the other voters in her precinct were all Republicans.
Comment by Not so Grand Old Party Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 1:51 pm
==DuPage is much more diverse than it was twenty years ago.==
I think it’s more driven by suburban white folks changing. The DuPage County of Pate Phillip and Lee Daniels was primarily a white flight enclave (mixed with the traditional Wheaton-based conservatives.) Today’s DuPage is primarily made up of Big Ten graduates who met their spouse while living in Lincoln Park or Bucktown, got married, and moved west for a bigger home and good school district — often buying their house from the aging white flight generation. Affluent, college educated voters now lean Dem. This is happening in suburbs all over country.
Comment by BC Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 1:51 pm
===Republicans simply do not know how to organize.
Those who do are disowned. The others are worried about purity tests.
—Few have the courage to say the hundreds of thousands of Illinois residents who have moved in just the past 3 or 4 years are not Democrats
Why does that take courage? The use of courage has become strange.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:09 pm
The GOP will turn this around when they find enough candidates with Der Reich stuff. /s
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:09 pm
===has been driven by women voters===
This is something Jim Edgar focused on when he ran in 1990.
It worked. Then, GWB pushed a lot of those women away. Obama attracted their votes in droves. Trump finished the job.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:13 pm
As a lifelong DuPage County resident and a lifelong Democrat, I’d say BC is spot on about young affluent white professionals moving to DuPage to start families and voting Democratic.
Some even grew up in DuPage before spending their 20-something years in Chicago.
Before kids, they lived in Lincoln Park or Oak Park. Now, it’s Glen Ellyn.
I would add that the most effective, energized and committed members of the DuPage Democrats are older women who want their daughters and granddaughters to keep the rights they won when they were younger.
Comment by It's really very simple Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:14 pm
=== young affluent white professionals moving to DuPage to start families===
Since the 1950s.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:16 pm
Extreme GOP views and policies dominate the voter’s perception of the party in DuPage, and voters don’t want it. It’s also hurt that some of the candidates who’ve been successful at the council and school district level have sadly reinforced that negative perception of the GOP. People aren’t voting for it…
Comment by Lincoln Lad Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:17 pm
As a DuPage Republican, it’s incredibly frustrating to see the whine-fest by our County Chair and others. The party has not filed an A-1 since last October. It’s like they aren’t even trying to get resources. Yeah the new rules on VBM are tough, but the reason the DEMS are so good at it is because they invested in a program and made it a priority. The IRP and DuPage GOP spent ZERO on VBM and the results speak for itself. I would provide to them the same advice I give my kids–less screentime (DuPageGOP needs to stop the 15 facebook posts per day) and touch some grass (literally and metaphorically). Raise some $$, develop a strategic plan, share it with the committeemen and focus on the areas where you can make a difference. Please stop with the keyboard warrior junk and start acting the role.
Comment by Back2Basics Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:33 pm
==Since the 1950s. ==
And in the 50s that demographics tended to vote for Republicans, today they tend to vote for Democrats. This has been heavily studied.
Comment by supplied_demand Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 2:39 pm
How well would the old ILGOP of moderates have done in the suburbs? The party of Edgar and JBT. That’s what the current ILGOP could ask itself.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Apr 7, 25 @ 3:18 pm