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ARG has Obama up by just 6 points here

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Illinois
Polls
Obama

* Keep in mind that these are “likely” voters, and we don’t know whether American Research Group’s screen will be successful, but here’s the latest Illinois poll…

Likely voters
McCain 45%
Obama 51%
Obama 1%
Undecided 4%

* Background and the question…

Interview dates: September 13-16, 2008

Sample size: 600 likely voters

Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time

Question wording and responses:

If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?

* From the AP…

A new poll of voters in the eight states home to Big Ten universities shows Barack Obama and John McCain in an extraordinarily tight race for the presidency.

The first Big Ten Battleground Poll shows the candidates are in a statistical tie in seven of the states _ Ohio, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana and Pennsylvania. Obama leads comfortably in his home state of Illinois.

The survey was based on interviews with 600 randomly selected registered voters in each of the states. It is co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein with help from colleagues from participating universities.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 3:23 pm

Comments

Even with that being a poll of only “likely” voters the number do surprise me I would of thought that Obama would, even with that group, be out be quit a bit more.
I wonder if this election might come to down how what percentage of the people that do not typically vote but are supporters of Obama actually turn out to polls on election day.
Have there been a recent national poll of “likely” voters.

Comment by RMW Stanford Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 3:29 pm
Much smaller lead than expected.

I suspect that there will be a lot of new voters who may not pass the traditional’ likely voter’ scale used by the pollsters

I would be shocked to see Sen Obama with less than a 10 pint lead here in Illinois

Comment by Plutocrat03 Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 3:30 pm
That poll is great news for Republicans. An Aug. poll said that Obama was ahead, 53%-38%. Obama lost 2%, and McCain gained 7%. Since the margin of error is 4%, Obama might win about half of the vote, in his homestate.

Comment by Phil Collins Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 3:46 pm
I have doubts on the ARG. The Big Ten poll has Obama up 16, which tracks other polls on RealClearPolitics and, frankly, makes more sense.

But according to RCP polls, Minn., WI, PA and Mich have slipped from Leaning Obama to Tossup in recent weeks. IN is classified as Tossup, but I don’t believe it. No Dem has won Indy since LBJ. If Obama wins IN, he’ll win the whole shooting match.

There’s danger here, cherie.

Obama Fatigue. He’s got to get off the dime.

McCain is quoting FDR, railing against corrupt Wall Street and Washington, now. That should be a Dem issue.

Get out of Hollywood, Barry, and have a couple of boilermakers at the bowling alley.

But don’t bowl.

Here’s the RCP polls link.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/

Comment by wordslinger Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 3:51 pm
One of the danger for Senator Obama might that if a lot of his support is coming from “new voters” and non-traditional voters will they show up to vote in historical large number on elections day. I developed a kind of cynical attitude after the last few election cycles to idea that new voters are going to turn out in overwhelming numbers.

Comment by RMW Stanford Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 3:57 pm
I’m not buying it.

Comment by Undercover Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 4:04 pm
I have a feeling our fine economy is going to take care of any gains made by McCain from Palin. Can you say President Obama?-I knew you could.

Comment by Pond Scum Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 4:12 pm
So far, this poll seems to be an outlier. Watch polling in the days to come. Because if Obama only gets 55% in Illinois it means one of two things… It means he is gonna lose nationwide, and second, it means that Illinois is truly a moderate state (which I think it is) and would rather vote for a middle-of-the-road candidate than a home-grown senator. And it would be a lesson to the ILGOP, since I don’t think they quite learned from Alan Keyes, run moderate to conservative candidates that don’t have that touch of oddness that gets democrats elected.

Comment by Heartless Libertarian Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 4:43 pm
Obviously, Obama is Toast ! Don’t be a Lottery Player, vote for the Winners, McCain Palin. This is Me and I approve this message.

Comment by A Citizen Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 4:50 pm
There was a poll the other day that showed McCain within 6 points in New York, I would put that, this and the White Sox post-season chances under the header “it’s officially silly season”.

Comment by shore Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 4:54 pm
big ten poll includes leaners. Its 49 - 34 without leaners.

Comment by anon Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 5:01 pm
It’s too early to tell whether these are “real” numbers.Anyway,since the Democrats control the state of Illinois:how ironic Obama is calling for “change”.

Comment by Steve Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 5:28 pm
I’d love to believe these polls, but I’m not so sure. If Iowa and Pennsylvania are really dead heats then Obama is in some serious trouble. He must have both to win.

The Illinois numbers really don’t matter. Obama will likely follow the same pattern of other winning Demcorats in Illinois. He’ll lose downstate, break even in the suburbs and roll up big numbers in Chicago.

Neither campaign views Illinois as anything but a money spigot, so even if it were dead even, we wouldn’t see any resources spent here by either candidate.

Biggest impact will likely be on all those down-ticket Dems (Halverson for example) who were counting on Obama to carry them in Republican-leaning districts. Other polling I’ve seen shows that Obama is just not that popular outside of Chicago. I guess we are just too busy clinging to our guns and religion. I wonder too, how much is backlash from the Illinois media’s shameless promotion of Obama. The public may be getting a little tired of being told every day how wonderful “The Chosen One” is.

Comment by Old Elephant Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 5:28 pm
I’m not so sure, Shore - that is, about your NY claim. A new Siena polls showed New York Jews favor McCain over Obama … wait for it … by 22 percentage points—54 to 32. Now that number could be an outlier, too. I previously thought that Obama would have had this thing sewn up by now. But the trend throughout many swing - and even True Blue states - shows this race is up in the air. Sorry, I know this is supposed to be an Illinois-centric blog. So, maybe the ARG poll from Illinois is some blowback from Illinoians about Obama not minding the store.

Comment by phocion Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 5:33 pm
McCain by 8% among Inds? Wow. Bad trends are emerging nationwide for Obama - even in a roller-coaster economy. He HAS to do well in the debates, or we’re gonna see another Dukakisesque collapse… the math just isn’t in his favor if those blue-collar states are slipping … even just one.

Comment by Amuzing Myself Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 5:43 pm
Illinoisans are finally getting to know Obama, and they may not be crazy about what they see. He doesn’t have much of a record to brag about as a state Senator and is even less distinguished as a US Senator. That’s what happens when you use the people’s trust for personal gain. Using one office to zip into another before any real work was done for the people will wear thin soon.

Comment by Non-Drowsy Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 6:56 pm
The Jewish sample for the New York polls incudes about 50 people at most so the numbers aren’t that reliable. Siena has lagged all of the other polls during the cycle anyway–ARG’s poll actually shows Obama doing better in New York than in Illinois. Rasmussen and Quinnipiac track with ARG so those are a bit more realistic. Siena puts the vote question towards the end as well which can have all sorts of effects as well.

In the Illinois ARG poll, it isn’t that far off other polls that recently showed 55 and 53 percent. The biggest difference is that McCain shows a better showing with ARG which might be simply be ARG pushing undecideds a bit more.

Charles Franklin oversaw the ARG poll so I’m sure it was meticulous, however.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 7:12 pm
My opinion is that anyone who doesn’t think Obama is going to win Illinois big is fooling themself

Comment by steve schnorf Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 8:08 pm
The only poll that means anything is the one tallied on election day. The rest just give people something to do until then, either by reading them, conducting them for a paycheck, or writing about them for a paycheck.

Comment by Captain Flume Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 8:10 pm
Funny that you’re so surprised. Aside from Chicago Dems, who obviously expect either a flood of federal money (which congress allocates, not the President), or elevation to some federal post based on their association with Sen. Obama, why would you expect the average working person to support him just because he’s an Illinois Pol? Is he the most qualified… probably not. Is he the most ethical…possibly if he can overcome the Cook County stench (after all, he came here as an adult and may be cureable).

Sen. Obama will win if he contrasts himself with the neocons in McCain’s organization. If he does, he will carry enough conservative votes to be elected. If he’s just another Chicago Dem. and Washington go-along guy, he has no right to expect most Illinois voters to follow him.

Comment by Bobs yer Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 8:26 pm
I am waiting for Senator Obama to come out in favor of the Clean Coal plant in Mattoon. The mess in Springfield does him no favors in large parts of Illinois. That said, he’ll still win by 12-14 points here.

Comment by OurMagician Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 10:02 pm
So they asked if people were voting for McBama or someone else; and if they said someone else, they were reported as “undecided?”

Comment by Squideshi Thursday, Sep 18, 08 @ 11:55 pm
Illinois is hurting, if Obama intervenes on Illinois Senate Stalemate issues such as ethics reform and restoration of funding for substance abuse programs and helps pass them — two very important, fundamentally necessary and, in the latter case, cost saving AND live saving programs in Illinois; then he has my vote, if not he is not the guy I thought he was…Change takes Courage.

Comment by No more blind faith... Friday, Sep 19, 08 @ 6:30 am
Too little, too late. Coming in at the last moment to pad a thin record for the campaign is obvious. Where have you been during the free-fall in Illinois the past 6 years?

Comment by Holdingontomywallet Friday, Sep 19, 08 @ 7:28 am
That poll is a joke. Obama will win Illinois by 20 points. We don’t have much gray matter around these parts.

Comment by Snidely Whiplash Friday, Sep 19, 08 @ 8:37 am
Who cares about Illinois?

Whether it is 1% or 100% in the polls, McCain isn’t going to win Illinois. No one is going to be spending money here to change that. Obama isn’t and McCain isn’t.

Nonsense.

Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Sep 19, 08 @ 9:07 am