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* Being ever mindful of avoiding all uses of stock DC talking points, let’s hear your pre-game analysis of tonight’s final presidential debate.
Again, no mindless talking points. Be original, or don’t bother. Thanks.
[Comments closed. Go here to analyze the debate.]
posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:14 am
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JM has to be feeling a great deal of pressure to score a game chaning homerun tonight. I look for him to take some chances. He will either look Presidential or Desperate. BO can play it safe, ducking difficult answers, and riding his lead to victory. That is, of course, if the polls have any validity. Seems like the polls were of questionable accuracy with respect to a BO lead in the primary.
Comment by Downstate weed chewing hick Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:20 am
McCain Implodes by going on the attack. He comes across as hot headed and out of touch.
Barack seals the deal with reasoned talking points. I doubt Obama brings any new material to the table. Just sticks to the normal shuck and jive.
Comment by Speaking At Will Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:22 am
Even while tempering down expectations with his ‘not a game-changer’ quote, I think McCain has to try the long-bomb-pass method and try to get Obama to mess up. If you look at a graph of McCains polls and the stock market, they look remarkably the same…
Comment by Vote Quimby! Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:28 am
Watching the polls fall away from him, he should have the attitude that his advisors suck, so pay them their last check, and go it alone. It may seem counter-intuitive, but his “desperate” situation may in fact put him in a mental attitude that will win many back/over. The headlines will be on Nov. 5th : McCain NEVER QUIT
(but then again, never got enough votes either).
Sitting for the so called “debate” won’t help McCain, but it sure beats him walking/flailing around to give the impression of youthful vigor, which fails in that attempt.
Comment by You Go Boy Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:31 am
Down big McCain does need a big night. But I think Obama’s been baiting him to bring up the Ayers and other attacks McCain’s been using.
I think McCain takes the bait to his major detriment.
No one says anything we haven’t heard before but McCain’s self-destruction is completed and he’s left to spend the next 3 weeks sputtering like Yosemite Sam while sane support flees from him.
Comment by Rich O Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:32 am
It is going to be the same rhetoric we have heard in the prior two debates - JM is going to hit BO hard on taxes - this debate will come down to character and taxes. I think we will see Bob Schieffer bring up the Ayers/Rezko/Wright issue - there will be prepared remarks by both candidates. It will be a combination of HRC’s last two debates (Ayers/Wright/Rezko) with BO and the past two debates with JM and BO when the issue of taxes and spending were debated.
Comment by Chicago Law Student Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:46 am
Acorn, acorn, acorn.
Obama has already alelgedly issued talking points to the media.
Keating 5, links to Bush and Chicago
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:51 am
Tonight John McCain will focus on his record, his accomplishments, his experience, and his opponent’s lack of qualifications to the presidency. He will mention how little we know who Obama is, mention his allies on his way up the ladder in Chicago, and question his opponent’s judgement.
In his closing comments, he will stun the country and change the last weeks of this election with his announcement that he will spend every hour of every day focusing on doing bipartisan work for the American people, and will serve only one term in office. He will tie it into his biography of sacrifice and love of country.
This will be the game changer he needs.
For the next few weeks, McCain will draw independants by campaigning as the guy who will rise above partisanship and politics, committed to his country, and serve only one term. The media will eat this up. The talking heads will discuss the pros and cons of a one term presidency, and Americans will get the chance to vote for McCain in 2008, and wait until Obama is ready for another run in 2012.
This way they can get both guys as president, and this angle will be the “surge” McCain needs to win.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:56 am
Most minds are made up already - one way or the other.
Unless a screw up of monumental proportions takes place. I expect the polls to remain status quo.
I expect McCain to hit Obama on character questions while Obama will spend most time talking about the economy.
Comment by stones Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 11:57 am
VM - Sen. Lindsey Graham pushed the idea on JM last summer to take the one-term pledge (JM obviously refused) - it would have been a very effective message against BO IF he wouldn’t have picked Gov. Palin. He can’t do that know bc she will then be a part of that message - and that is the last thing the campaign wants right now.
Comment by Chicago Law Student Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:03 pm
Debates and Polls are only for those who truly believe in them. Over the years there have been strange things happen in the political arenas. Examples: Truman/Dewey, Kennedy/Nixon, Bush/Gore, so it’s a wait and see thing.
Comment by WAR DOG Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:09 pm
LOL.
Scientific polls exist. It’s not a debatable point.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:11 pm
If John S. McCain III takes the bait and attacks Obama on Ayers and some of the other specious negatives his campaign has used, then he comes off looking like the angry old guy and Americans really don’t want to vote for that guy. Karl Rove said it best during Deanmania in 2003 — “When was the last time Americans elected an angry president?”
Polls have consistently shown that voters see McCain’s campaign as exceptionally negative, too negative. If McCain switches that up, talks about how his ideas are better than Barack’s and stays on that message, he has a fighting chance.
Personally, though, I think his temper will get the best of him.
All Barack really has to do is not say anything stupid and try to look as presidential as possible. We’re not totally at the point where he can play it safe the rest of the way and win, but we’re close.
Comment by Gadfly Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:30 pm
==Sen. Lindsey Graham pushed the idea on JM last summer==
He thought he could win then.
==it would have been a very effective message against BO IF he wouldn’t have picked Gov. Palin==
Uh huh, right. If the media wants to keep a one-term pledge on the front burner until Election Day, with anti-Palin stories, I doubt the GOP will care, as long as it remains a front burner story instead of the economy.
A one-term pledge is too precious a nuggest of crap for the talking heads to leave alone. Every one of them will blather endlessly regarding their opinions. Three weeks won’t be enough time for them to stop pronouncing their views and rebutting one another. They’ll eat it up.
There is also a big difference between Palin now, and Palin after four years in office. The anti-Palin folks don’t get it, but enough voters do to make it work.
Comment by VanillaMan Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:40 pm
All McCain needs to do is discuss Obama’s tax plans over and over. Drive the point home to the public that Obama’s tax plan is smoke and mirrors and is more likely to cost them then help them.
BTW. Would a revenue generating blog be considered a “small business?” If so, here comes the tax man.
Comment by Big Mama T Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:51 pm
===If so, here comes the tax man. ===
I’m just a poor country boy trying to survive.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:52 pm
Phillies 6
Dodgers 3
Both campaigns have become so predictable I could cite the answers along with the candidates at the townhall one.
Overall campaigns a total let down. Two weeks of “inspiration” followed by months of politics as usual.
C’mon Rays.
The more interesting question at this point is whether every expansion team will get to the world series before the Cubs return.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:54 pm
Either way, when Rod leaves office I’ll probably be forced into a trailer park or an assisted living center.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:54 pm
==The anti-Palin folks don’t get it, but enough voters do to make it work.==
I agree that the media would eat the one-term pledge up, but unlike some I am a believer in “scientific polls” - her unfavorables are awful right now. The media will talk about the “one-term” and then the Palin argument will flow right into the discussion. Attempting to make voters feel comfortable with a Veep who is doing an apprenticeship is an interesting message (one that I don’t believe would work) - but hey JM has changed messages as many times as HRC did - so I wouldn’t be surprised.
Comment by Chicago Law Student Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 12:55 pm
McCain needs to focus on himself. He needs to talk about what his plans are then he needs to compare them to what Obama plans. Obama is expecting McCain to come out swinging and I think McCain should do the opposite.
I also think McCain is going to change alot of the undecided voters to vote for him.
Comment by Change Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 1:01 pm
Obama: Don’t say anything stupid, run out the clock. Don’t be a smart-aleck, don’t make any age references. Be presidential.
McCain: I know everyone’s saying he has to attack, but he can’t. Looks too desperate, gives off a whiff of defeat, makes him smaller.
No gimmicks either, like one-term pledge. Also desperate.
Be presidential, humble, funny. Remind independents and the press why they liked him in the first place.
Main message should be something to the effect…
” My political advisors gave me a list of things to attack Sen. Obama with tonight. But I won’t do it. I’ve had it with them and all their negative stuff. From now on, I do it my way. You want change, how about this from a candidate way down in the polls: Sen. Obama is a fine young man and a shining testament to the inexorable progressiveness of American democracy. His amazing story could not have happened anywhere else but the United States. I’m proud of him and I’m proud of my country because of him. He’ll make a fine president one day.
But in these dangerous times, you need a tough SOB like me to fight for the American people. I’ve been a fighter all my life. This will be my last mission, one that I’ve been training for all my life. I’m ready now. But it’s your choice, and either way we’ll be fine.”
Senator Obama, your response?
Comment by wordslinger Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 1:07 pm
First thing out of McCain’s mouth is:
“Can I call you Barry?”
Comment by anon sequitor Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 1:07 pm
The media seemed to test the ‘McCain comeback’ waters early this week, but the polls simply didn’t support it at all. McCain floated a weak capital gains policy that was attractive to no one in particular. Obama has been baiting McCain to address nonsense like Ayers and ACORN to his face since the last debate, and McCain essentially said he would yesterday.
“Y’know, I was astonished to hear him say that he was surprised for me to have the guts to do that, because the fact is that the question didn’t come up in that fashion. So, y’know, and I think he’s probably ensured that it will come up this time.” -John McCain
Of course, in the same breath he said he did not “give a damn about some old washed-up terrorist,” so who knows what he’s thinking?
Given this setup, I think the most likely scenario is that the third debate plays out largely the same as the first two: mostly uneventful. If McCain has the guts to address Ayers, he has to know Obama is ready to pounce, most likely with McCain’s more relevant and factual membership in the very exclusive Keating Five club. Normally this would be filed under old news, but the current financial meltdown makes McCain’s deregulation scandal in the 1980s more apropos.
If McCain doesn’t bring it up, I think we’ll see a rerun absent of any new policy from McCain, especially policy that garners him hate mail from both sides of the aisle, like his mortgage buyback fiasco.
The post debate polls will roll in and Obama will be the 60/40 winner again among the ‘undecideds,’ but what will be most interesting is the shift in the media. With support crystallizing and the ‘comeback’ story falling off quickly this week, the media will need a theme to grab a hold of and keep those ad dollars rolling in. I think that theme will be landslide. I expect to hear favorable (and unattainable) comparisons to Reagan over the next couple of weeks as the media begins to openly doubt a McCain win.
If McCain has a chance to win this election, it’s dwindling. Frankly, I think the last debate was his last chance, and he failed. Now I think their both preaching to their choirs, and Obama just has a bigger choir.
Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 1:40 pm
Rich, it is not too late to get a job as Asst GOv or whatever Job Shelia Nix had. You can then parlay that into a big time job..or you could marry into Daley’s family or one of the Blago girls as they are already excellent fundraisers. They may be a bit young for you.
All the attacks are not working. For whatever reason, as valid as some might be, people don’t care. Be positive and say we can get through this, this is America, etc. Link Acorn to the housing mess, voter fraud, how Obama thougth sub-primes were okay, while you co-authored the letter stating the need to regulate or address them. JSM be positive, but highlight your concerns about Obama without being seen as hateful. Make it relevant as the hairplugs joke was not understood by most. I heard it, I got it, I lol’d.
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 1:41 pm
Link Acorn to the housing mess… -Wumpus
I’m curious how one links an organization designed to register voters with a mortgage/credit collapse?
Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:02 pm
I predict that neither candidate will answer a question directly, if at all. They will blame the other candidate for everything that has happened in the world since the 1900’s.
Thank goodness for Baseball.
Comment by He Makes Ryan Look Like a Saint Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:15 pm
No change from tonight’s debate. This election is over; people are already voting. Al Gore couldn’t overcome the Clinton baggage, and McCain can’t get far enough away from W’s record. The stock market melt-down seals the fate of McCain.
It is so over, that if Obama should lose now it would be the end of the Democratic coalition as we know it. There would be a political reorganization similar to the demise of the Whig party, in substance if not in name.
Comment by Anon III Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:15 pm
doubtful
ACORN does more than register voters. They fight for a myriad of issues for the poor, etc. Why is is so hard for a poor person to register to vote>
Comment by Wumpus Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:22 pm
Ironicly, its Obama that has McCain right where he wants him. McCain has two roads and neither are good. Stay above board and avoid the “pal around with terrorist” type talk and he won’t get any significant attention to move the needle, attack with everything and he comes off looking like a vicious and petty old man.
Everyone keeps saying he needs a game changer, but between incresingly questionable Palin pick and the suspend campaign / cancel debate / uncancel debate debacle, the McCain camp doesn’t really have much credibility with the public. In Illinois, we know what happens when an executive (or executive candidate as it were) loses credibility. Any legit attempt at a game changer will either be personal and nasty at a time that economics trumps personality, or will just be seen as another smoke and mirrors gimmick.
Comment by got 'em Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:26 pm
Per the talking heads: McCain looked old and angry. Obama looked young and smug. Neither offered any new information. Obama won.
Per the Dems - Obama won. Per the GOP’s - McCain did a good job.
Per the voters who haven’t yet made up their minds or who had decided and now are rethinking their position: “We are mad as #*!@ and we can’t take it anymore, but we have no alternative but to brace ourselves. Mr. Obama you promise tax relief for 90+% of the taxpayers, will be on board when the Dem congress puts forth even more money for people to be on foodstamps, want some sort of universal health care, and plan to increase funding for college students. So, in other words, government should take care of everyone. Mr. McCain: you want to give tax breaks to corporations, provide tax incentives for job creation, restructure social security and buy out mortgages at who knows what level. Oh and while you are both at it, you plan to do something about developing alternatives to address our energy problems. Newsflash: Neither one of you tell us how you are going to pay for any of these programs. And when you do, the math doesn’t work. How many more billions of dollars can the US Govt. print? If we ran our households like you plan to run our government, then we’d be broke too. Gentlemen: The reason that common ordinary people are pulling cash out of their banks and stashing it under their respecctive mattresses is because many taxpayers don’t trust what’s going on. And by the way, it’s not looking like we can trust either one of you. We pay our mortgages, health insurance premiums, and bills every month. We started college funds when our kids were little so we wouldn’t have to rely on govt. loans. We file and pay our taxes. Times are tight, but when we run short, then we either reduce expenses or get a 2nd or 3rd job to fill in the gaps. And now you are expecting us to just open our respective wallets and pay other people’s mortgages and expenses because they didn’t budget well, or read the fine print in their loan papers, or seem to be above getting a minimum wage job to pay bills? It’s sad, but neither one of you gave us any reasons to vote for you.”
Comment by observation Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:35 pm
Wumpus, you didn’t answer the question.
What does ACORN have to do with the mortgage/credit crisis?
Follow-up questions: What is the difference between registration fraud and voter fraud? As it pertains to ACORN, who is the victim of registration fraud? While delivering a keynote speech at an ACORN rally, which presidential candidate said ‘What makes America special is in this room tonight,’ in 2006?
Honestly, I thought the financial woes were due to credit default swaps and other types of speculation on top of a greedy and largely unregulated mortgage industry.
I guess it was because someone tried to register Tony Romo in Ohio, though.
My bad.
Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:35 pm
to doubtful - Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:02 pm:
“I’m curious how one links an organization designed to register voters with a mortgage/credit collapse?”
The organization is NOT designed simply to register voters, they are very active in social issues.
In the 1990’s ACORN members demanded cooperation from banks about providing loan data on low- and moderate-income communities and compliance with the 1977 Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).
Acorn conducted strikes against banks so they’d lower credit standards, becoming one of the major contributors to the subprime meltdown.
And ironically, the taxpayers paid for it. Part of the failed resuce package a few weeks ago was more money for Acorn. According to the Employment Policies Institute, they received $16 million in federal dollars from 1997-2007.
These numbers are from a recent WSJ article.
As to the debate -
McCain needs to cowboy up and mix ideas about what he will do for America to keep it America, with direct comments as to why Obama’s plans are dangerous. He should mix in some mention of a one-party Washington. He needs to realize this is his last opportunity to speak without the veil of the media decided what they will cover.
As for Obama, he has shown he can debate well, I just don’t agree with his stance on the issues. So, I’m not going to give him any free advice!
Comment by Formerly Lurking CityGal Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 2:56 pm
Back to the question, please.
Also, Formerly Lurking, you need to check your history.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:00 pm
I’d like to see the moderator give McCain a chance to ask questions about Bill Ayers or any other attacks on Obama that McCain feels are serious and reflect on Obama’s judgment.
And then the moderator can give Obama a chance to ask McCain questions about Sarah Palin, the tone of McCain’s rallies or any other attacks Obama feels are serious and reflect on McCain’s judgment.
I don’t have any big predictions. Obama is like the Minnesota Twins, disciplined and well coached. He’s not likely to make mistakes.
I think McCain will play it safe. He will engage in mild criticism and maybe he’s saved his best zingers. But I don’t see him engaging in a full frontal assault on Obama.
I think there are people telling McCain that personal attacks aren’t what voters want to hear when there’s so much anxiety about the economy. And I don’t think McCain likes to do confrontation. That’s part of why he tends to explode when he does it. And his campaign team definitely don’t want him to be the first presidential candidate to seriously lose his cool.
Comment by Carl Nyberg Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:02 pm
Hi Rich - check my history on which portion, the numbers, the background, my opinion?
Comment by Formerly Lurking CityGal Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:04 pm
Apologies for getting too far off track, Rich. I was, and remain, genuinely curious how McCain could link ACORN, who is only in the news now because of registration fraud perpetrated on them, to the mortgage crisis.
Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:14 pm
A one term pledge would be a bad idea because it emphasizes McCain’s age.
My understanding is that people take impressions away from the debates more than answers. Obama’s goal is to continue to look competent and reasonable. McCain, unfortunately for him, cannot look young.
These debates are so good for Obama because he answers the main criticism against him (that he is a “risky” choice) by not looking risky. The criticism against McCain (he is too old) have been reinforced in each debate.
Rule #1 for both candidates: Avoid doing something that will be mocked on the Daily Show/SNL/etc. Arguably, this is pretty tough, but Obama has been able to carry it off by being nerdy and boring. (Which also happens to look competent and reasonable and not risky.)
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:14 pm
Check your history on the performance of loans and Acorn.
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:23 pm
Sorry to get off topic, I’ve lurked for a while, and really enjoy the local Chicago and Illinois discussions and coverage. I’ll wait for the subject on Acorn, and in the meantime I’ll call the WSJ and ask them what part of the history I misinterpreted.
Comment by Formerly Lurking CityGal Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 3:44 pm
I certainly hope everyone enjoys the debate. Don’t forget to drink when McCain says ‘my friends,’ or when Obama says ‘middle class.’
That alone should lead to some interesting post debate discussions.
Comment by doubtful Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 4:43 pm
I predict that JM will implode and Obama will speak again but not say anything concrete. I’m voting but not for either of these two gentlemen.
I know that tax breaks for the rich don’t do anything to help this country, it only makes them bolder and I know that BO has little experience in running anything and is just a touch too aristocratic for the job and it shows.
Comment by Disgusted Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 5:00 pm
A tie in McCain’s favor!
Comment by Black Ivy Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 5:45 pm
It seems to me that Obama has McCain in checkmate. One important poll result that people do not comment on much is the favorable/unfavorable ratio for the two candidates. By that measure, the McCain attacks have not touched Obama in the slightest, while McCain’s favorable/unfavorable ratio has gone in the tank. (You can see the charts of how that has been changing on Realclearpolitics.com ) So McCain loses if he attacks, and he loses if he does not. He has lost the argument on economic policy, and if he tries to modify his position on that now, the rap on him for being erratic will counterbalance any benefit for moving to a more sensible (in my view) position. His best chance (not original with me) is to forget tactical and strategical considerations and speak from his heart about his love for the country and his desire to serve it; i.e., try to help people rediscover the McCain they liked and thought they knew. This would not be likely to win him the election, or even the debate, but it is the only course that is not doomed beforehand. That being said, I have always liked McCain, but I think that Obama will be a much better President than McCain would be, for two several reasons. One is that Obama is so smart–he understands both politics and policy precisely and deeply. A second reason is his temperament—Obama is exceptionally calm and steady and would deal better than almost anybody with the pressures of the Presidency. A third reason is that McCain is too ready to go for confrontation in international affairs when diplomacy combined with pressure is called for. Consider what has happened with two members of Bush’s axis of evil—Iraq and North Korea. We invaded one and negotiated with the other. The negotiation has been vastly more successful than the war, with respect both to U.S. interests and U.S. standing in the world. In the light of that, I strongly prefer having Obama deal with Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Russia, etc. as well as the unfinished business in Iraq.
Comment by jake Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 5:45 pm
Obama looked competent and qualified, “cool and collected,” my wife said. He looked like a President. McCain looked a bit off, stumbled on some words, a bit angry, and like an older gentleman/curmudgeon.
If people go away from debates with an impression of the candidate, Obama wins.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 9:39 pm
Comments closed. Go here to analyze the debate
Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Oct 15, 08 @ 10:23 pm