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* 3:31 pm - Democrat Debbie Halvorson’s congressional campaign has just released a new poll, which shows her leading Republican Martin Ozinga by 19 points. I’ve asked the Ozinga campaign to provide any recent numbers that they might have. From the executive summary…
* Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 48% to 29% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 5%. Halvorson has built a sizeable 19-point lead, but still needs a few points of expansion in order to win.
* Halvorson more than doubled her lead since mid-September when she led by 8 points (43% Halvorson / 35% Ozinga). Although Ozinga has made substantial investments in cable television and mail, Halvorson’s message about strengthening the middle class and fixing the national healthcare crisis has moved the race in her favor.
* The candidates have similar name identification (63% Halvorson / 59% Ozinga), but Ozinga has a high unfavorable rating that makes it difficult for him to expand his support. More voters are unfavorable towards Ozinga than favorable (27% favorable / 32% unfavorable). Ozinga’s favorable rating is 13 points lower than Halvorson’s and his unfavorable rating is 10 points higher than Halvorson’s (40% favorable / 22% unfavorable).
* Since September, Democrats have gone from a small deficit on the generic ballot (38% Democrat / 40% Republican) to a small advantage (38% Democrat / 36% Republican). Barack Obama has taken a 2-point lead (43% Obama / 41% McCain) after trailing by 5 points in mid-September.
* Details…
Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=400 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between October 10-13, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.9% at a 95% confidence level.
…Adding… From the Ozinga campaign…
“So Debbie Halvorson and three liberal special-interest groups spend over $2 million in false and personal smear ads against Marty Ozinga, and she’s still under 50%? Halvorson is clearly vulnerable to a late Ozinga surge once her shameful record of rubber-stamping Blagojevich’s failed agenda sinks in with voters in these final weeks.”
…Adding a thought… Since there are three candidates in the race, Halvorson may not need to hit 50 percent.
* Related…
Democrat Debbie Halvorson holds a slight lead in fundraising in the race to replace retiring U.S. Rep. Jerry Weller in Congress.
Halvorson, a Democrat from Crete, reported raising $580,000 between July and October, compared to Republican Martin Ozinga’s $563,000. Green Party candidate Jason Wallace of Normal raised $750. […]
“We think it’s a neck-and-neck race,” Ozinga campaign manager Andy Sere said.
According to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission, Halvorson raised $580,000 between July and Oct. 1, while spending more than $1.2 million.
Halvorson had $274,545 in the bank.
* 4:26 pm - Watch Congresscritter Judy Biggert completely lose her train of thought during a debate yesterday on Chicago Tonight. It ain’t pretty…
She didn’t do too well earlier in the debate, either, appearing, without lots of success, to access talking points in her mind to fit the question…
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 3:32 pm
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What’s the benefit of releasing polls showing that you’re ahead? Contributors who were on the fence kick in to be on the winning team? Does it tamp down supporters of the opponent? Any experience that show that it works?
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 3:48 pm
I’m not sure why they’d put that out on a Friday afternoon, but it’ll be news in the district.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:01 pm
[…] Rich covers it: […]
Pingback by ArchPundit | IL-11 Democratic Poll Has Halvorson Up Big Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:01 pm
This is not a surprise. Ozinga is a businessman and considering the Market meltdown this past month, his image is hurting him.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:03 pm
Rich, you’re right, that’s where you bury bad news. Unless they expect Sunday play.
Comment by wordslinger Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:08 pm
Call the Geneva Convention, because VM is torturing logic.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:18 pm
Wow…what a meltdown by Biggert! I laughed out loud when she said ‘S-CHIP corporation’. Talk about not knowing the issues…thanks for the out-the-door hilarity!
Comment by Vote Quimby! Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:38 pm
Biggert doesn’t seem to have any more clue about economics than McCain. And she sits on the Financial Services Committee? That was pathetic. No wonder her press releases have always sounded like cut and paste jobs from the Heritage Foundation and Club for Growth white papers. We need to get her out of congress before she and her puppet masters do any more harm.
Anybody thinking about voting for this woman again please watch that video. She really doesn’t get it.
Comment by markg8 Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 4:49 pm
[…] Via Rich […]
Pingback by ArchPundit | Winning Responses Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 5:03 pm
It is clear that Biggert was distracted by the host who was rushing her because time was running out for the segment. This is a nasty approach from Harper, but no one should be surprised since his entire campaign has been nothing but negative.
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 5:23 pm
===It is clear that Biggert was distracted by the host===
I’m the first to admit that live TV ain’t nearly as easy as it looks. It’s so easy to lose your train of thought and then look like a moron. Thankfully, whenever it’s happened to me I’ve been able to bluff my way through.
But that performance was undeniably horrible.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 5:35 pm
Just like Haper: take something out of context and pass around talking points.
Comment by Hanging Chad Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 5:50 pm
Rich, Biggert did more than lose her train of thought. The train left the station and arrived in parts unknown. Either this woman is clueless, lost, too old or overworked and under rested. If I was her opponent I would clip this question and mail it to everyone in her area.
Comment by Doggone Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 8:05 pm
===t is clear that Biggert was distracted by the host
Of course, before that she did almost the same thing in the segment before this video began.
Comment by archpundit Friday, Oct 17, 08 @ 8:13 pm
This is a really sad and juvenile way to attack someone who simply was being rushed by the show’s host and producers. Its sad the way the Harper campaign is using these “Gotcha” tactics. But I guess that’s what you should expect from someone that has never held office and isn’t from the district.
Comment by willcoview Saturday, Oct 18, 08 @ 9:36 am
willcant that’s a pathetic defense. Biggert has been quoted many times since Paulson asked for $700 billion no questions asked. First she told the Daily Herald the Democratic proposal of equity investments in big banks instead of Paulson’s taxpayer giveaway and limiting CEO pay sounded like socialism to her. Then she sided with other rightwing morons who thought insuring the toxic securities with taxpayer dollars was a good idea. Wall St. wrote $62 trillion worth of insurance swaps they can’t begin to pay off. How many trillions do you think the US taxpayer has? After she voted against the first bill she said on NPR it was because she wanted the FBI “beefed up to investigate mortgage fraud”. She’s just now noticing there was mortgage fraud? Really?
Let’s face it Judy Biggert was stumped because there’s nothing she can say. She and her rightwing ideologue friends brought us this fiasco by deregulating the markets.
Unless we repudiate the people and the party that turned the USA into the world’s biggest banana republic our banks and the dollar won’t be seen as a safe haven for anybody to put their money. That’s why Paulson followed Europe’s lead and bought bank stock so quickly this week. He had no choice, otherwise there would have been a run on American banks like nothing we’ve ever seen. So much for Biggert’s “socialism”.
Comment by markg8 Saturday, Oct 18, 08 @ 11:48 pm