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* A recent story in the Washington Post centered around an interview with Cornell Belcher, who polls for both the DCCC and Barack Obama. It indicates that two Illinois Republican incumbents might be on the Dems’ radar because of the nation’s economic woes…
In Illinois’ 13th district, an exurban Chicago seat where veteran Rep. Judy Biggert (R) is running for re-election, Belcher found that voters trust Democrats to fix the economy more than Republicans by a 19-point margin. They gave Democrats a 15-point edge on energy issues and an 11-point advantage on the broad question of which party “shares your values.” And that’s all in a district where President Bush won by 10 points in 2004 and 13 points in 2000.
The story is similar in the neighboring 6th district of freshman Rep. Peter Roskam (R). The seat has long leaned Republican — Bush won it by 6 points in 2004 — but now, Belcher found, Democrats have a 14-point edge on the economy and a 15-point lead on energy.
Does that mean that Biggert and Roskam are going to lose? No. Both remain favored to win re-election, and neither of their races gets included on most prognoticators’ lists of competitive contests. The point here is that if Democrats are opening up such a wide lead on economic issues in Republican districts like these, what’s going to happen in the true swing seats? And that’s before the effects of Obama’s increasingly strong candidacy — and money — enter the discussion.
As today’s Tribune poll shows, 57 percent of Illinoisans said the economy was the top issue, which would explain why Belcher thinks those two incumbents might possibly be vulnerable.
* I checked with a local Democratic strategist about this article, and he had this to say via AIM…
Biggert is the exact kind of person that gets caught in a sweep like this: Low profile, not seriously challenged, not a big fundraiser.
A hammer dropped on her head is unexpected and dangerous, even if she’s moderate and has high approval numbers. Those can be very soft in an environment like this.
Roskam is different. He’s been communicating, he’s attacked Morgenthaler and he just went through a tough run last year. My guess would be that his voters are more loyal.
That said, I just can’t believe the [DCCC] would drop the hammer on these two.
Spend the money on Seals who deserves actual help from the committee and would be a Dem seat for 20 years.
* Democrat Jill Morgenthaler’s campaign had this comment about their chances against the Republican Roskam yesterday via e-mail…
In looking at the 16 election pairs (the last 10 years of primary + general) in the 6th District and the neighboring 8th and 14th, I discovered that the Democratic percentage of overall votes went up from the primary to the general in every case.
The Democratic percentage in the 6th in the primary was 54%.
By the way, it is the first time that the Dem percentage in the primary was over 50% in the 6th. […]
In February, Democratic ballots cast in the Congressional race were 54% and Republican 46%. If the historic voting trends prevail, then the Democratic candidate in the General Election, JIll Morgenthaler, would stand to get more than 54% in the the upcoming election.
Even in years where the Democrats were not well known and spent very little money, the percentage still goes up from primary election to general election.
A Morgenthaler victory might sound unlikely in this historically Republican district, but, given the large number of new Democrats who registered for the February election, approximately 37,000 and Obama’s popularity in district, it is not. (Obama is very popular in the district where he won his Senate Primary and General elections as well as the Presidential primary.) In the February primary, there were 25,000 more Democratic votes cast than Republican.
Take it all for what it’s worth.
* By the way, the Tribune endorsed Morgenthaler today. An excerpt…
Roskam has a generally solid voting record, but he lends his name to some causes that would turn Congress into a busybody. He has co-sponsored a bill that would push the Defense Department to ban Playboy and R-rated movies from sale on military bases. He supports another bill that could put the clamps on in-vitro fertilization. Finally, Roskam opposes the expansion of O’Hare International Airport. That’s a key issue for this region—and Morgenthaler is right to support expansion. She gets the nod.
* The Sun-Times endorsed Roskam…
He has reached across the partisan divide, holding regular conference calls with voters. He has made tax relief his first priority, reflecting the preferences of both Republicans and moderate Democrats in his district. And he has the parliamentary skills and pragmatic approach to governance that could make him an effective counterweight to a possible Democratic White House and an overwhelmingly Democratic House and Senate.
* Related…
* Schock investigation ends quickly
* Schock won’t be charged in document flap
* Tribune endorses Kirk, Ozinga, Morgenthaler, Bean
* Manzullo in a 3-way race
quote>* Kirk, Seals run against each other, Bush
* Illinois’ 10th District Draws the Eye of National Parties
* Dan Seals on Health Care
* Both 14th District candidates have deep pockets
* Roskam promises fiscal responsibility
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:35 am
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After not endorsing McCain and Roskam, I think it’s time to stop getting the Trib…I guess I’ll have to read sports, the comics and the obituaries online…nothing else worth reading there.
Comment by trib Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:51 am
kudos to Morgenthaler for the Trib endorsement…
Roskam has run a totally disrespectful smear campaign trying to tie her to Blago and Rezko…
Comment by Loop Lady Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:51 am
===the Tribune endorsed Morgenthaler today. The Sun-Times endorsed Roskam…====. There are McCormicks and Fields rolling over in their graves today.
Comment by Been There Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:53 am
One can only imagine if Tammy Duckworth ran again against Roskam. I don’t think Morganthaler has a chance but I am getting tired of hearing Roskam’s attack ads (which I think are very effective) on the radio all the time.
Comment by HoBoSkillet Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 9:55 am
Henry Hyde usually got 60%-65%. In 2006, Roskam got 51% because it was his first race, for Congress. This year, he’ll receive 54%-55%. In 2006, Rep. Biggert received 58%, and she usually receives 60%-65%.
Comment by Phil Collins Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:00 am
I noticed over the weekend that Roskam’s ads don’t mention the fact that’s he’s the incumbent congressman. They say “I’m Pete Roskam, and I’m running for Congress.”
I guess that’s dictated by the low approval rating for congress. Still, I don’t recall every seeing that before.
Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:02 am
==…Cornell Belcher, who polls for both the DCCC and Barack Obama. It indicates that two Illinois Republican incumbents might be on the Dems’ radar because of the nation’s economic woes…==
This isn’t news when it comes from a DCCC guy. It is news when it comes from a GOP pollster. The DCCC guy is supposed to be saying things like this.
Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:09 am
Prediction — Biggert and Roskam are in more trouble than Kirk. Unbelievable but true.
Comment by Angry Chicagoan Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:13 am
I am confused…. Trib endorsing a Dem and Sun-Times endorsing a Republican? I think that this is the 6th sign of the Apocalypse
Comment by Question for you Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:17 am
In the 13th, dont forget that the Speaker’s staff in is two hot races (85th and 95th). There is also contested races against Rep. Kosel in east end of the 13th. Thus, not only do you have the Obama wave rising, but a grassroots effort helping push the Dems from the bottom.
Question is: Do we have a Monsoon or tsunamis?
Comment by Wildpalms Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 10:23 am
The Tribune endorsement was news to me.
End to IVF? No to dirty magazines in the PX [here is a rule: Any guy who gets shot at for a living should be able to look at photos of women]?
Roskam tries to act like some sort of moderate, but it sure looks like he’s on the fringe.
For what it is worth, the Trib also sold me on Ozinga. I generally don’t have much use for Republicans, but the endorsement hit home. Who will be more independent — the guy who ran a concrete company or Emil’s tool? If I was in that district, I might well vote for Ozinga.
Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:22 pm
It was really interesting to watch the tribune’e endorsement videos where they sat down to discuss the issues with the candidates, you get a really feeling of who these people are.
The discussion with Roskam was fascinating in that morgenthaler got the board to spend half the time talking about frontal nudity with John Adams. I’m a GOP from the north burbs and had never heard of the guy, but came off really liking Marty Ozinga and thinking halvorson and roskam really looked like empty polished politicians.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:33 pm
==No to dirty magazines in the PX [here is a rule: Any guy who gets shot at for a living should be able to look at photos of women]?==
Agreed. Not only a ban on pornography, which has been a military staple for a long time, but R rated movies?
The Republican Liberty Caucus really, really needs to look into rescinding it’s endorsement of Roskam. He’s showing more and more than he’s an enemy of real liberty and freedom.
Comment by Policy In Action Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 12:39 pm
“McCain’s campaign is a new low in American politics”
- By making such a ridiculous comment, I can only assume that you are blogging during your recess period. Both campaigns have been timid compared to the mud slinging, family trashing, barn burners of the past. Trying cracking a history book, kid.
“the channeling of George Wallace ”
- Associating George Wallace (another historical reference the grade-school crowd is too young to understand) to McCain is just another example of liberals playing the race card, which Obama and his supporters have been doing throughout the campaign.
If you criticized Bush, you were unpatriotic. If you criticize Obama, you are racist. You can only imagine what divisions that will cause during the next four years.
“a candidate who is patently less qualified”
- Another laughable line from “Angry”. McCain is clearly more qualified, and public polls agree. But, good or bad, qualifications alone do not elect a President. Just ask President Gore.
Comment by Tired Chicagoan Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 1:12 pm
I was surprised by the Trib’s endorsement of Morganthaler. It appears clear to me that Roskam’s opposition to O’Hare expansion was the critical determining factor in the Tribune’s editorial decision.
Comment by Captain America Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 1:49 pm
I’m a Republican, watch the video, Roskam looked really pathetic spewing some old culture war talking points, especially at a time like this. These guys are over there getting shot at, they should be able to watch a R rated flick if they want. He needs better staffing and messaging.
Comment by shore Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 2:17 pm
Captain,
Opposing the O’Hare Expansion at this point is like, ummm, being against the first Gulf War. It’s a done deal, except for the attorneys on both sides’ payroll.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 2:25 pm
Morganthaler was on the brink of being let go by Argonne National Labs where she worked as a PR person. The IEMA team thought that this was good experience in becoming a high level employee for them and snatched her up. She knew nothing about disaster planning or nuclear planning for accidents and/or disasters but she got the job anyway. Now she thinks all that experience plus her military career makes her a perfect politician. What kind of Koolaid is she drinking???
Comment by Disgusted Tuesday, Oct 21, 08 @ 5:49 pm