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* As I told you below, a Democratic poll reportedly has Dan Seals leading Republican Congresscritter Mark Kirk by about a point. GOP polls have Kirk up by 4-5 points. A new Research 2000 poll taken for Daily Kos has Seals leading Kirk. Previous 9/30-10/1 Research 2000 poll is in parentheses…
Kirk (R) 43 (44)
Seals (D) 49 (38)
* Toplines…
* Obama vs. McCain…
* But will Seals’ late fundraising improve?
The Highland Park Republican’s campaign also continues to bring in thousands of dollars a day in donations just more than a week out from Election Day. For example, [Kirk’s] campaign took in nearly $40,000 on Wednesday and Thursday alone.
Seals, on the other hand, reported having $269,344 on hand as of Oct. 15. His fundraising since that point as continued to lag Kirk’s, according to 48-hour updates recorded with the Federal Election Commission.
* Democratic congressional candidate Colleen Callahan comes in second place in Politico’s 10 worst ads of the season for her “Daisy” spot…
LBJ had the good sense to run his infamous “Daisy” ad — the one where a little girl picking petals off a flower is annihilated by a nuclear explosion — once. Here’s Democrat Colleen Callahan suggesting Daisy could get wiped out by her opponent’s support of nuke sales to Taiwan.
The ad…
…Adding… Statement from Callahan campaign…
Colleen Callahan, Democratic candidate for the 18th Congressional seat, will be canceling scheduled campaign events until further notice in order to be with her family after the death of her mother. Elaine Callahan passed away earlier today at the age of eighty-four.
* CQ Politics has a list of possible Obama replacements…
• Emil Jones, the president of the Illinois state Senate, mentor of Obama, and one of Blagojevich’s rare allies in the legislature. Furthermore, Jones will be without a job at the start of next year; he announced in August that he plans to retire in January, 2009.
• Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who would serve two political purposes. First, her appointment could please the faction of the state legislature led by her father, Michael J. Madigan, who is Illinois House Speaker and a bitter opponent of Blagojevich on spending issues. Second, it would literally get a potential gubernatorial rival out of town.
• Iraq veteran Tammy Duckworth, who narrowly lost a House race in 2006.
• Rep. Jesse L. Jackson Jr. , who was an early supporter of Obama and is an experienced congressional hand.
Whatever. If anyone knows what our governor will do on something this important, then please come work for me. We’ll make lots of money.
The story ends with this…
Those pondering the possibilities, though, agree that Blagojevich is unlikely to want any direction from Obama, and unlikely to get it.
“Obama will not step foot into Illinois politics. It’s a minefield,” said Paul Green who is a professor of policy studies at Roosevelt University. “He’d go to Kabul before he’d go to Springfield.”
My own view is that anyone who gets this job is gonna be horribly tainted by the Blagojevich appointment. It’s a political death knell.
* From Lynn Sweet…
Obama Illinois State Director Ken Bennet, who has been keeping a low profile all this time, emerges in a video to ask Illinois Obama backers to flood the neighboring key battleground states of Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri and Indiana. Since there is not much Obama work to do in Illinois, the Illinois movable feast has been targeting the adjacent Big Ten states.
The Obama campaign has told me this export of political talent will not drain big House campaigns in Illinois where Democrats have a chance to make red districts blue.
Video…
* Bean shows softer, folksy side in new TV spot…
U.S. Rep. Melissa Bean’s newest TV commercial is a folksy piece that touts her background as a working mom and former business owner.
The 30-second ad, which launched Thursday, is softer than the congresswoman’s first TV piece, a fairly somber spot that focused on the nation’s economic crisis.
Here’s one of the ads…
All of her ads are here.
* Chicago Republicans to counter-program on Election Night
* C3 Presents, the Texas concert promoters who bring Lollapalooza to Grant Park each summer, have been tapped to stage the massive celebration the Obama campaign is planning to hold in Grant Park on election night.
* And the folks pushing for a “Yes” vote on the constitional convention have a new video…
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:12 pm
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I’d liek to beleive the Kirk/Seals poll, but am skeptical since it was done for Kos….
As for the Callahan ad, she needs to do something as a Democrat to gain attention in that district and I suspect that ad accomplished what she wanted it to do—increase concerns among voters that the young Schock is too inexperienced and rash to be a member of congress.
Comment by Mountain Man Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:17 pm
If Blago is so politically toxic that no one in his/her right mind would accept the Senate appointment from him, then the only thing left to do is appoint himself!
Comment by Secret Square Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:19 pm
==adjacent Big Ten states==
LS, Missouri is not a Big Ten school state, even with 11 schools
I don’t know what Blago would do, but if there were odds I would guess appointing himself would be the favorite with Emil close behind. I truly wonder if LM would accept it if offered…
Comment by Vote Quimby! Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:29 pm
I believe more and more the answer to the appointment question is Emil Jones. He gets to award a friend, and appoint an African American all at the same time. Plus, Emil will not likely run for re-election to the US Senate, so he will not have to worry about the stigma of being appointed by the Governor.
Comment by Jaded Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:30 pm
It’s Emil. Everybody knows this.
Comment by Macbeth Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:34 pm
Chicago Republicans? They exist? I thought they were extinct, a tragic failure of the endangered species act back in the 1970’s.
Comment by cermak_rd Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:35 pm
I encourage all Obama supporters to go to Indiana or Wisconsin over the next 14 days. Don’t even worry about Illinois, just focus on helping Obama in Wisconsin or Indiana or even Florida. Don’t wait–go now.
Comment by Easy Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:42 pm
Emil Jones for U.S. Senate! Accurate representation for Illinois values.
Comment by T.J. Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:46 pm
Nice video. How old is that song? From 1970 also? It seems like it has been around my entire life, just like our current constitution.
Also, being appointed by Blagojevich isn’t any more of a death knell than being appointed to the US Senate by any other governor. Aside from a couple of wives of deceased senators who were appointed to fulfill their spouse’s term and got elected, being appointed to the US Senate is practically a death knell in it’s own right.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 3:55 pm
lol
That singer in the ConCon video sounds strangely familiar.
Rich, is that you?
Comment by Bill Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:00 pm
I have just one name for the governor to replace Senator Obama if he wins…
OneMan ( I would be more than happy to be a senator for a while)
or perhaps
Bill
Comment by OneMan Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:08 pm
Bill, my voice is too low to sing that song
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:09 pm
Oh no.
I am 100 percent pro Con Con, but that video almost made me lose my lunch (and snack). Horrible. Please Rich, if your really think we need a con con, take down that clip!
The appointment puzzle is fun to talk about, but like you said Rich - neither Sneed nor anyone in DC has any clue. Hell, G-Rod probably doesn’t even have a short list yet. Could he try to appoint Patrick Fitzgerald?
Comment by Soy Milk - Formerly Known As Napoleon has left the building Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:15 pm
OneMan, if Obama wins we should start a massive blog swarm to get Bill appointed. You’re a GOP, so that probably rules you out. Sorry.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:16 pm
everyone knows Blago’s going to appoint pat quinn. No one has been more loyal and steadfast than his ole luietenant governor.
In all seriousness though, does anyone think Blago would appoint Hoffman in the outside chance he loses his election?
The outcry from the public about replacing the only sitting african american male senator with a downstate white guy would be pretty severe. And that’s his last bastion of support. But i could still see it as a possibility…only if Hoffman loses…
Comment by Anonymous Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:19 pm
Blago will appoint himself.
You heard it hear first.
Comment by John Bambenek Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:24 pm
OK - stats on appointed senators…
173 US Senators have been appointed since direct election.
63 did not run for election
58 were elected for their own term
30 were defeated for their own term
21 were defeated for their own nomination
1 died
So, out of 173 - 58 were elected in their own right after their appointments. Metzenbaum of Ohio was defeated after his appointment, and later won a term.
Out of the 63 who chose not to run, a significant portion of them weren’t politically supported enough to even try. But their official status is “Decided Not To Run” according to the US Senate website.
So, if Obama is actually elected, the person being appointed would have a roughly 50/50 chance of winning if they choose to run in 2010 using these stats.
Note that in single party states like Illinois, the chances for election seems to be better than average, but only after getting the nomination. 21 of the 109 appointed US Senators that tried to be elected after their appointments, didn’t get nominated by their own party.
We currently have three formerly appointed US Senators sitting in Congress who were elected after their appointed term expired. The oldest of the group is Senator Ted Stevens, back in 1970.
We currently have two appointed US Senators sitting in Congress.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:27 pm
==Blago will appoint himself.
You heard it hear first.==
HEY! Where have you been buddy? See yesterday’s posting of my thoughts on Blagojevich appointing himself, and I have been posting this since this subject first came up.
Comment by VanillaMan Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:28 pm
The Beatles will be popular with the kids.
You heard it here first.
Comment by JonShibleyFan Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:29 pm
“Note that in single party states like Illinois, the chances for election seems to be better than average, but only after getting the nomination.” -VanillaMan
I would imagine, though, that having an approval rating higher than dismal would also help. If Rod does appoint himself, I would expect some strong primary challengers for the nomination in 2010.
Oh, off topic, but given your (VanillaMan’s) concern for our buddy Joe the Plumber, I thought you’d like to know he might be running for congress in 2010.
Comment by doubtful Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:47 pm
Heard it here first? You mean when Rich wrote about it last winter right? Get over yourself, JB.
Comment by Soy Milk - Formerly Known As Napoleon has left the building Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:47 pm
I did?
lol
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:50 pm
I am thinking….PoorJay becuase he almost made it to DC ( not really) and he can never be anything …so let’s do it and we can call him “Senator”
Mr. Lucky get me a press release
Comment by 2ConfusedCrew Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 4:51 pm
Bill for Senate! He won’t have time to blog.
Comment by Arthur Andersen Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 6:26 pm
yeah I may be GOP but considering rods sanity….
Then again a blogswarm for Bill would be cool
Comment by oneman Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 6:28 pm
When is someone in the Peoria media market going to wake up? You know, conventional wisdom for MONTHS in Peoria is that the $50,000 loan Schock loaned to his own congressional campaign (listed in his September 07 FEC report) is money that originated from a businessman in Peoria.
Why isn’t anyone forcing this congressional candidate to release his tax returns so that he can clear up this issue?
Comment by there he goes again Friday, Oct 24, 08 @ 6:50 pm